Humanity has long been making plans for the future of deep space flight. But what will these flights be like? On what ships will we plow the expanses of the Universe?
Will these ships be so big that there will be enough space inside them to build settlements or even entire cities, as we have often seen in many science fiction films? Or will they be closer to reality and represent large orbital space stations? The main question of this article is how close to reality are the concepts of space colonies proposed in science fiction.
Giant space stations the size of the moon. Huge ring-shaped stations orbiting alien worlds. Massive cities drifting in the atmosphere of alien planets. Today we will consider all these concepts and find out how feasible they are.
Commenting on this or that idea will be Cindy Du, a research fellow and doctoral student at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a person who frankly believes that the Mars One project is doomed from the outset, and a scientist who has written a serious scientific paper that raises questions related to our possible future life in space.
According to Du, there are three things to consider if we are talking about any possibility of human habitation in space. It is necessary to consider the habitat, what we want from this habitat and how big it will be. It is these three criteria that can indicate the possibility or impossibility of the whole undertaking. Therefore, we will consider several options for space dwellings that science fiction offers us, and find out how realistic and rational their use is.
Mobile space station like the Death Star
Almost every sci-fi movie buff knows what the Death Star is. This is such a big gray and round space station from the Star Wars movie epic, outwardly very reminiscent of the moon. It is an intergalactic planet destroyer that is essentially an artificial planet itself, made of steel and inhabited by stormtroopers.
Can we actually build such an artificial planet and surf the galaxy on it? In theory, yes. Only this will require an incredible amount of human and financial resources.
"A station the size of the Death Star would require a huge supply of materials to build," says Du.
The question of the construction of the "Death Star" - no joke - was raised even by the American White House, after the society sent a corresponding petition for consideration. The official response from the authorities was that $852,000,000,000,000,000 would be needed for construction steel alone.
Let's assume that the issue of money is not a problem and the Death Star was actually built. What's next? And then the good old physics will come into play. And that will be a real problem.
"To be able to propel the Death Star through space would require an unprecedented amount of energy," continues Du.
“The mass of the station will be equivalent to the mass of Deimos, one of the satellites of Mars. Humanity simply does not have the opportunity and necessary technologies to build an engine capable of moving such giants."
Orbital station "Deep Space 9"
So, we found out that the Death Star is too big (at least in today's view) for space travel. Perhaps some smaller space station, such as Deep Space 9, which takes place in the Star Trek series (1993-1999), will help us. In this series, the station is in orbit around the fictional planet Bajor and is an excellent habitat and a real galactic trading center.
“Again, it would take a lot of resources to build a plant like this,” says Du.
“The main question is this: whether to deliver required material to the planet in whose orbit the future station will be located, or to extract the necessary resources right on the spot, say, on some asteroid or satellite of one of the local planets?
Du says it now costs about $20,000 to deliver each kilogram of payload into space to low Earth orbit. With this in mind, it would probably make more sense to send some kind of robotic spacecraft to mine one of the local asteroids than to deliver it to the site desired material from Earth.
Another issue that will require a mandatory solution will, of course, be the issue of life support. In the same Star Trek, the Deep Space 9 station was not completely autonomous. It was a galactic trading hub, with new supplies brought in by various merchants and also through shipments from the planet Bajor. According to Du, in the construction of such space stations for habitation, in any case, it will be necessary to carry out missions from time to time to supply new food.
“A station of this size is likely to function by creating and combining the use of biological environments (such as growing algae for food) and chemotech-based life support systems, such as the ISS,” explains Du.
“These systems will not be completely autonomous. They will require periodic maintenance, replenishment of water supplies, oxygen, supply of new parts, and so on.
Mars station as in the movie "Mission to Mars"
There is a lot of real fantasy stuff in this movie. Tornado on Mars? Mystical alien obelisks? But what is most confusing is the fact described in the film that it is very easy to equip a home on Mars and provide yourself with water and oxygen supplies. Left alone on Mars, the hero of actor Don Cheadle explains that he was able to survive on the Red Planet thanks to the creation of a small vegetable garden.
"It works. I give them light and carbon dioxide They are my oxygen and food.”
If it's so easy, then what are we still doing here on Earth?
“In theory, creating a Martian greenhouse is indeed possible. However, growing plants has a number of features. And if we compare the labor costs for growing plants on Mars and the cost of delivering ready-made products from Earth to the Red Planet, then it will be easier and cheaper to deliver ready-made and packaged products, supplementing the stocks with only a part of grown crops with a very high degree of productivity. Moreover, you will need to choose plants with a minimum ripening cycle. For example, various lettuce crops.
Despite Cheadle's belief that there are close ties between plants and humans (there may be on Earth), in the harsh climate of Mars, plants and humans will be in a completely unnatural environment for them. We should also not forget about such an aspect as differences in the intensity of photosynthesis of agricultural crops. Growing plants requires complex closed systems to control the environment. And this is a very serious task, since in this case, people and plants will have to share a single atmosphere. Solving this problem in practice will require the use of isolated greenhouse chambers for growth, but this in turn will increase total cost costs.
Growing plants may be a good idea, but it's best to stock up on extra provisions to take with you before a one-way flight.
Cloud City. City floating in the planet's atmosphere
Lando Calrissian's famous "city in the clouds" from Star Wars seems like a pretty interesting science fiction idea. However, can planets with a very dense atmosphere, but a harsh surface, be a suitable platform for the survival and even prosperity of mankind? NASA experts believe that this is indeed possible. And the most suitable candidate for the role of such a planet in our solar system is Venus.
The research center at Langley has explored this idea and is still working on spacecraft concepts that could send a man to the upper atmosphere of Venus. We have already written that the construction of a giant station the size of a city will be very challenging task, almost impossible, but it can be even more difficult to find an answer to the question of how to keep a spacecraft in the upper atmosphere.
"Atmospheric reentry is one of the toughest challenges in spaceflight," says Du.
“You can’t even imagine what “7 minutes of horror” Curiosity had to endure at the time of landing on Mars. And keeping a giant residential station in the upper atmosphere will be much more difficult. When you enter the atmosphere at a speed of several thousand kilometers per second, you will need to activate the braking and stabilization systems of the device in the atmosphere in a matter of minutes. Otherwise, you'll just crash."
Again, one of the advantages of Calrissian's flying city is constant access to clean and fresh air, which can be completely forgotten if we are talking about real conditions and in particular the conditions of Venus. In addition, special suits will have to be developed, dressed in which people will be able to go down and replenish supplies of materials on the hellish surface of this planet. Doo has a few ideas for this:
“To live in the atmosphere, depending on the chosen location, you can, for example, clean up the atmosphere around the station (on Venus you can convert CO2 into O2, for example), or you can send mining robots to the surface using a tether, for example, to extraction of minerals and their subsequent delivery back to the station. In the conditions of Venus, this will again be an extremely difficult task.
All in all, the Cloud City idea doesn't seem right in many ways.
Giant spaceship "Axiom" from the cartoon "WALL-E"
The stunning and touching sci-fi cartoon WALL-E offers a relatively realistic version of humanity's exodus from Earth. While the robots are trying to clean the surface of the Earth from the accumulated debris on it, people are flying out of the system into deep space in a giant spaceship. Sounds pretty realistic, right? We have already learned how to make spaceships, so let's just make them bigger?
In fact, this idea is, according to Du, almost the most unrealistic of the list proposed in this article.
“The cartoon shows that the Axiom ship is in very deep space. Therefore, most likely, he most likely does not have access to any external resources that may be required to maintain life on the ship. For example, since the ship will be located far from our Sun or any other source of solar energy, it will most likely work on the base nuclear reactor. The population of the ship is several thousand people. They all need to eat, drink, breathe air. All these resources need to be taken from somewhere, and also not to forget about the processing of waste, which will definitely accumulate with the use of these resources.”
“Even if some high-tech biological life support system is used, then being in a space environment that is not capable of replenishing the spacecraft with the necessary amounts of energy will mean that all these life support systems will not be able to support biological processes on board. In short, the giant spaceship option looks the most fantastic."
World-ring. Elysium
Ring worlds, as they are presented, for example, in the fantasy action movie "Elysium" or the video game "Halo", are perhaps one of the most interesting ideas for space stations of the future. In Elysium, the station is close to Earth and, if you ignore its size, has a certain amount of realism. However, the biggest problem here lies in its "openness", which is only in appearance - pure fantasy.
"Perhaps the most controversial issue about Elysium Station is its openness to the space environment,” Du explains.
“The film shows how the spaceship just lands on the lawn after it comes from outer space. There are no docking gateways or anything like that. But such a station should be completely isolated from external environment. Otherwise, the atmosphere here will not last long. Maybe, open areas the stations could be protected by some kind of invisible field that would allow sunlight to enter and keep the plants and trees planted there alive. But for now, it's just fiction. There are no such technologies."
The very idea of a station in the form of rings is wonderful, but so far unrealizable.
Underground cities like in The Matrix
The events of the Matrix trilogy actually take place on Earth. However, the surface of the planet is inhabited by killer robots, and therefore our house looks like an alien and very inhospitable world. To survive, people had to go underground, closer to the core of the planet, where it is still warm and safer. The main problem under such real circumstances, besides, of course, the difficulty in transporting the equipment that will be required to create an underground colony, will be to maintain contact with the rest of humanity. Du explains this difficulty using the example of Mars:
“Underground colonies may encounter communication problems among themselves. Communication between underground colonies on Mars and Earth will require the creation of separate powerful communication lines and orbital satellites, which will become a bridge for transmitting messages between the two planets. If a permanent communication line is required, then at least one additional satellite will be required, which will be located in the orbit of the Sun. It will receive a signal and send it to Earth when our planet and Mars are on opposite sides of the star.”
Terraformed asteroid as in the novel "2312"
In Kim Stanley Robinson's novel, people terraformed an asteroid and built a kind of terrarium on it, in which artificial gravity is created due to centripetal force.
NASA expert Al Globus says that the most important thing will be to solve the issue of airtightness of the asteroid, given that most of them appear to be essentially large pieces of various space debris. In addition, the expert says that asteroids are very difficult to rotate, and changing the center of gravity will require some effort to correct its course.
“However, building a space station on an asteroid is indeed possible. It will only be necessary to find the largest and most suitable flying piece of rock,” Du says.
"Interestingly, NASA is planning something similar as part of its Asteroid Redirect Mission."
“One of the challenges is to select the most suitable asteroid with the right structure, shape and orbit. There were concepts according to which the issue of placing an asteroid in periodic orbits between Earth and Mars was considered. The behavior of the asteroids in this case was changed in such a way that they would act as transporters between the two planets. The additional mass around the asteroid, in turn, provided protection from the effects of cosmic radiation.
“The main task associated with this concept would be to move a potentially habitable asteroid into a certain orbit (this would require the availability of technologies that we this moment do not possess), as well as the extraction and processing of minerals on this asteroid. We don't have any experience with this yet."
“The size and density of such an object is more suitable for sending a team of 4-6 people there, rather than building something at the level of a colony. And NASA is now preparing for this.”
Dream Chaser is a new manned vehicle from the private company Sierra Nevada Corporation (USA). This reusable manned spacecraft will deliver cargo and crew of up to 7 people to low earth orbit. According to the project, the spacecraft will use the wings, and with their help to land on a conventional runway. The design is based on the design of the orbital aircraft HL-20
©Sierra Nevada Corporation
While the Americans of the middle of the last century were feverishly thinking about how to keep up with the "evil empire", it was full of slogans: "Komsomol - on a plane", "Starry space - YES!". Today, the United States launches spaceships with the ease of kites, while ours is left to surf for the time being, perhaps, the Bolshoi Theater. Got into the details of Naked Science.
Story
During the Cold War, space was one of the battlegrounds between the Soviet Union and the United States. The geopolitical confrontation of the superpowers was the main incentive in those years for the development of the space industry. A huge amount of resources have been thrown into the implementation of space exploration programs. In particular, the US government spent about twenty-five billion dollars on the implementation of the Apollo project, the main goal of which was to land a man on the surface of the moon. For the 70s of the last century, this amount was simply gigantic. The lunar program of the USSR, which was never destined to come true, cost the budget of the Soviet Union 2.5 billion rubles. The development of the domestic space shuttle "Buran" cost sixteen billion rubles. At the same time, fate prepared Buran to make only one space flight.
Much more fortunate was its American counterpart. The Space Shuttle made one hundred and thirty-five launches. But the American shuttle was not eternal. The ship, created under the state program "Space Transportation System", on July 8, 2011, carried out its last space launch, which ended in the early morning of July 21 of the same year. During the implementation of the program, the Americans produced six "shuttles", one of which was a prototype that never carried out space flights. Two ships did crash.
Takeoff from the ground "Apollo 11"
©NASA
From point of view economic feasibility the Space Shuttle program is hardly a success. Disposable spacecraft proved to be much more economical than their seemingly more technologically advanced reusable counterparts. Yes, and the safety of flights on the "shuttles" was in doubt. During their operation, as a result of two accidents, fourteen astronauts became victims. But the reason for such ambiguous results of space travel legendary ship lies not in its technical imperfection, but in the complexity of the very concept of reusable spacecraft.
As a result, the Russian Soyuz disposable spacecraft, developed back in the 60s of the last century, became the only type of vehicles currently carrying out manned flights to the International Space Station (ISS). It should be noted right away that this does not at all indicate their superiority over the Space Shuttle. The Soyuz spacecraft, as well as the unmanned space trucks Progress, created on their basis, have a number of conceptual shortcomings. They are very limited in carrying capacity. And the use of such devices leads to the accumulation of orbital debris left after their operation. Space flights on Soyuz-type ships will very soon become part of history. At the same time, today, there are no real alternatives. The huge potential inherent in the concept of reusable ships often remains technically unrealizable even in our time.
The first project of the Soviet reusable orbital aircraft OS-120 "Buran", proposed by NPO Energia in 1975 and which was an analogue of the American Space Shuttle
©buran.ru
New US spacecraft
In July 2011, US President Barack Obama declared that a mission to Mars is a new and, as far as one can assume, the main goal of American astronauts for the coming decades. One of the programs implemented by NASA as part of the exploration of the Moon and the flight to Mars was the large-scale space program Constellation.
It is based on the creation of a new Orion manned spacecraft, Ares-1 and Ares-5 launch vehicles, as well as the Altair lunar module. Despite the fact that in 2010 the US government decided to curtail the Constellation program, NASA was able to continue developing the Orion. The first unmanned test flight of the spacecraft is scheduled for 2014. It is assumed that during the flight the apparatus will move away from the Earth for six thousand kilometers. This is about fifteen times further than the ISS is. After the test flight, the ship will head for Earth. The new apparatus will be able to enter the atmosphere at a speed of 32,000 km/h. According to this indicator, "Orion" surpasses the legendary "Apollo" by one and a half thousand kilometers. The first unmanned experimental flight of the Orion is intended to demonstrate its potential. The test of the ship should become important step to the implementation of its manned launch, which is scheduled for 2021.
According to NASA plans, Delta-4 and Atlas-5 will act as Orion launch vehicles. It was decided to abandon the development of Ares. In addition, for the exploration of deep space, the Americans are designing a new super-heavy launch vehicle SLS.
The Orion is a partially reusable spacecraft and is conceptually closer to the Soyuz than to the space shuttle. Partially reusable are most promising spacecraft. This concept assumes that after landing on the Earth's surface, the spacecraft's habitation capsule can be reused for launching into outer space. This makes it possible to combine the functional practicality of reusable spacecraft with the cost-effectiveness of operating Soyuz or Apollo type vehicles. Such a decision is a transitional stage. Probably, in the distant future, all spacecraft will become reusable. So the American Space Shuttle and the Soviet Buran were, in a sense, ahead of their time.
Orion is a multi-purpose capsule partially reusable manned spacecraft of the United States, developed since the mid-2000s as part of the Constellation program
©NASA
It seems that the words "practicality" and "prudence" are the best way to characterize Americans. The US government has decided not to shoulder all of its space ambitions on the shoulders of Orion alone. Currently, several private companies commissioned by NASA are developing their own spacecraft designed to replace the devices used today. Boeing is developing the partially reusable manned spacecraft CST-100 as part of its Commercial Manned Vehicle Development Program (CCDev). The device is designed to make short trips to near-Earth orbit. Its main task will be to deliver the crew and cargo to the ISS.
The crew of the ship can be up to seven people. At the same time, during the design of the CST-100, special attention was paid to the comfort of the astronauts. living space the apparatus is much more extensive than the ships of the previous generation. It will probably be launched using Atlas, Delta or Falcon launch vehicles. At the same time, Atlas-5 is the most suitable option. The landing of the ship will be carried out with the help of a parachute and air cushions. According to Boeing's plans, in 2015 the CST-100 is waiting for a series of test launches. The first two flights will be unmanned. Their main task is to launch the device into orbit and test security systems. During the third flight, a manned docking with the ISS is planned. If the tests are successful, the CST-100 will very soon be able to replace the Russian Soyuz and Progress spacecraft, which exclusively carry out manned flights to the International Space Station.
CST-100 - manned transport spacecraft
©Boeing
Another private ship that will deliver cargo and crew to the ISS will be an apparatus developed by SpaceX, which is part of the Sierra Nevada Corporation. Partially reusable monoblock ship "Dragon" was developed under the NASA program "Commercial Orbital Transportation" (COTS). It is planned to build three modifications of it: manned, cargo and autonomous. The crew of the manned spacecraft, as in the case of the CST-100, can be seven people. In the cargo modification, the ship will take on board four people and two and a half tons of cargo.
And in the future, they want to use the Dragon for flights to the Red Planet. Why will they develop a special version of the ship - the "Red Dragon". According to the plans of the American space authorities, the unmanned flight of the apparatus to Mars will take place in 2018, and the first test manned flight of the US spacecraft is expected to be carried out in a few years.
One of the features of the "Dragon" is its reusability. After the flight, part of the power systems and fuel tanks will descend to Earth together with the spacecraft's habitation capsule and can be used again for space flights. This constructive ability distinguishes the new ship from most of the promising developments. In the near future, "Dragon" and CST-100 will complement each other and act as a "safety net". In the event that one type of ship for some reason cannot perform the tasks assigned to it, the other will take over part of its work.
Dragon SpaceX is a private transport spacecraft (SC) of SpaceX, developed by order of NASA as part of the Commercial Orbital Transportation (COTS) program, designed to deliver payloads and, in the future, people to the ISS
©SpaceX
The Dragon was launched into orbit for the first time in 2010. The unmanned test flight was completed successfully, and a few years later, namely on May 25, 2012, the device docked to the ISS. By that time, the ship did not have an automatic docking system, and for its implementation it was necessary to use the space station manipulator.
This flight was considered as the first ever docking of a private spacecraft to the International Space Station. Let's make a reservation right away: the Dragon and a number of other spacecraft developed by private companies can hardly be called private in the full sense of the word. For example, NASA allocated $1.5 billion for the development of the Dragon. Other private projects also receive financial support from NASA. Therefore, we are talking not so much about the commercialization of space, but about a new strategy for the development of the space industry, based on cooperation between the state and private capital. Once secret space technologies, previously available only to the state, are now the property of a number of private companies involved in the field of astronautics. This circumstance is in itself a powerful incentive for the growth of technological capabilities of private companies. In addition, this approach made it possible to arrange in the private sphere a large number of space industry specialists who were previously dismissed by the state in connection with the closure of the Space Shuttle program.
When it comes to the spacecraft development program by private companies, perhaps the most interesting is the SpaceDev project, called the Dream Chaser. Twelve partners of the company also took part in its development, three american university and seven NASA centers.
The concept of the reusable manned spacecraft Dream Chaser, developed by the American company SpaceDev, a division of Sierra Nevada Corporation
©SpaceDev
This ship is very different from all other promising space developments. The reusable Dream Chaser looks like a miniature Space Shuttle and is capable of landing like an ordinary plane. And still, the main tasks of the ship are similar to the tasks of the Dragon and CST-100. The device will serve to deliver cargo and crew (up to the same seven people) to low Earth orbit, where it will be launched using the Atlas-5 launch vehicle. This year, the ship should carry out its first unmanned flight, and by 2015 it is planned to prepare its manned version for launch. Another one important detail. The Dream Chaser project is being created on the basis of an American development of the 1990s - the HL-20 orbital aircraft. The project of the latter became an analogue of the Soviet orbital system "Spiral". All three devices have a similar appearance and supposed functionality. This raises a perfectly legitimate question. Was it worth it for the Soviet Union to turn off the half-finished Spiral aerospace system?
What do we have?
In 2000, RSC Energia began designing the Clipper multi-purpose space complex. This reusable spacecraft, outwardly resembling a smaller "shuttle", was supposed to be used to solve a wide variety of tasks: cargo delivery, evacuation of the space station crew, space tourism, flights to other planets. There were certain hopes for the project. As always, good intentions were covered with a copper basin of lack of funding. In 2006, the project was closed. At the same time, the technologies developed within the Clipper project are supposed to be used for the design of the Advanced Manned Transport System (PPTS), also known as the Rus project.
Winged version of the Clipper in orbital flight. Webmaster's drawing based on the Clipper 3D model
©Vadim Lukashevich
It is the PPTA (of course, this is still only the “working” name of the project), as it is believed Russian specialists, will be destined to become a domestic space system of a new generation, capable of replacing the rapidly aging Soyuz and Progress. As in the case of the Clipper, RSC Energia is developing the spacecraft. The basic modification of the complex will be the New Generation Manned Transport Ship (PTK NK). Its main task, again, will be the delivery of cargo and crew to the ISS. In the long term - the development of modifications capable of flying to the moon and performing long-term research missions. The ship itself promises to be partially reusable. The habitation capsule can be reused after landing. Engine compartment - no. A curious feature of the ship is the ability to land without using a parachute. A jet system will be used for braking and soft landing on the Earth's surface.
Unlike the Soyuz, which take off from the territory of the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, the new ships will be launched from the new Vostochny Cosmodrome, which is being built on the territory of the Amur Region. The crew will be six people. The manned vehicle is also capable of taking cargo - five hundred kilograms. In the unmanned version, the ship will be able to deliver more impressive "goodies" to the near-earth orbit - weighing two tons.
One of the main problems of the PPTS project is the lack of launch vehicles with necessary characteristics. Today the main technical aspects The spacecraft has been worked out, but the lack of a launch vehicle puts its developers in a very difficult position. It is assumed that the new launch vehicle will be technologically close to the Angara, developed back in the 1990s.
Model of PPTS at the MAKS-2009 exhibition
©sdelanounas.ru
Oddly enough, but another serious problem is the very purpose of designing the PPTS (read: Russian reality). Russia will hardly be able to afford the implementation of programs for the exploration of the Moon and Mars, similar in scale to those that the United States is implementing. Even if the development of the space complex is successful, most likely, its only real task will be the delivery of cargo and crew to the ISS. But the start of flight tests of the PPTS has been postponed until 2018. By this time, promising American vehicles, most likely, will already be able to take on the functions that the Russian Soyuz and Progress spacecraft are currently performing.
Foggy prospects
The modern world is deprived of the romance of space flights - this is a fact. Of course, we are not talking about launching satellites and space tourism. You don't have to worry about these spheres of astronautics. Flights to the International Space Station are of great importance to the space industry, but the duration of the ISS in orbit is limited. The station is scheduled to be closed in 2020. A modern manned spacecraft is, first of all, component a specific program. It makes no sense to develop a new ship without having an idea about the tasks of its operation. New US spacecraft are being designed not only to deliver cargo and crews to the ISS, but also to fly to Mars and the Moon. However, these tasks are so far from everyday earthly concerns that in the coming years we can hardly expect any significant breakthroughs in the field of astronautics.
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Opening screensaver of the series "Space": a schematic representation of the spread of mankind in the solar system
I prepared a short article for the Popular Mechanics magazine - a forecast for the development of astronautics. The material "5 Scenarios for the Future" (No. 4, 2016) included only a small part of the article - just one paragraph :) I am publishing the full version!
Part One: Near Future - 2020-2030
At the start of the new decade, humans will return to lunar space as part of NASA's Flexible Path program. The new American super-heavy Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, the first launch of which is scheduled for 2018, will help with this. The payload is 70 tons at the first stage, up to 130 tons at the next ones. Let me remind you that the Russian Proton has a payload of only 22 tons, the new Angara-A5 has about 24 tons. The state-owned Orion spacecraft is also being built in the United States.
SLS
Source: NASA
American private traders will ensure the delivery of astronauts and cargo to the ISS. Initially, two ships - Dragon V2 and CST-100, then others will catch up (possibly winged - for example, Dream Chaser, not only in cargo, but also in passenger version).
The ISS will be operated at least until 2024 (possibly longer, especially the Russian segment).
Then NASA will announce a competition for a new near-Earth base, in which Bigelow Aerospace will probably win with a design for a station with inflatable modules.
By the end of the 2020s, it is possible to predict the presence in orbit of several private manned orbital stations for various purposes (from tourism to the orbital assembly of satellites).
With the use of a heavy rocket (with a carrying capacity of a little more than 50 tons, sometimes classified as super-heavy) Falcon Heavy and Dragon V2, made by Elon Musk, tourist flights to orbit around the Moon are quite likely - not just a flyby, but namely work in a lunar orbit - closer to the mid 2020s.
Also, closer to the mid-late 2020s, a competition from NASA is likely to create a lunar transport infrastructure (private expeditions and a private lunar base). According to recent estimates, private traders will need about $ 10 billion in government funding to return to the moon in the foreseeable (less than 10 years) time.
Model of the lunar base of the private company Bigelow Aerospace
Source: Bigelow Aerospace
Thus, the "Flexible Path" leads NASA to Mars (an expedition to Phobos - in the early 30s, to the surface of Mars - only in the 40s, if there is no powerful accelerating impulse from society), and low Earth orbit and even the Moon will be given private business.
In addition, new telescopes will be put into operation, which will make it possible not only to find tens of thousands of exoplanets, but also to measure the spectra of the atmospheres of the nearest of them by direct observation. I would venture to suggest that before the year 30, evidence of the existence of extraterrestrial life will be obtained (oxygen atmosphere, IR signatures of vegetation, etc.), and the question of the Great Filter and the Fermi paradox will again arise.
There will be new flights of probes to asteroids, gas giants (to Jupiter's moon Europa, to Saturn's moons Titan and Enceladus, as well as to Uranus or Neptune), the first private interplanetary probes will appear (Moon, Venus, possibly Mars with asteroids).
Talk about resource extraction on astroids until the 30th year will remain talk. Unless private traders will conduct small technological experiments together with state agencies.
Tourist suborbital systems will begin to fly massively - hundreds of people will visit the edge of space.
China will build its own multi-module orbital station in the early 1920s, and by the middle to the end of the decade, it will carry out a manned flight around the moon. It will also launch many interplanetary probes (for example, the Chinese rover), but will not come out on top in astronautics. Although it will be on the third or fourth - right behind the United States and large private traders.
Russia, at best, will retain "pragmatic space" - communications, navigation, remote sensing of the Earth, as well as the Soviet legacy in manned space exploration. Cosmonauts on Soyuz will fly to the Russian segment of the ISS, and after the US withdraws from the project, the Russian segment will probably form a separate station - much smaller than the Soviet Mir and even smaller than the Chinese station. But this is enough to save the industry. Even in terms of launch vehicles, Russia will fall back to 3-4 place. But this will be enough to carry out tasks of national economic importance. In a bad scenario, after the completion of the operation of the ISS, the manned direction in cosmonautics in Russia will be completely closed, and in the most optimistic scenario, it will be announced lunar program with real (and not in the mid-2030s) deadlines and clear control, which will allow landings on the moon in the mid-2020s. But such a scenario, alas, is unlikely.
New countries will join the club of space powers, including several countries with manned programs - India, Iran, even North Korea. And this is not to mention private firms: by the end of the decade there will be many manned orbital private vehicles - but hardly more than a dozen.
Many small firms will create their own ultralight and light rockets. Moreover, some of them will gradually increase the payload - and go into the middle and even heavy classes.
Fundamentally new launch vehicles will not appear, people will fly on rockets, but the reusability of the first stages or the rescue of engines will become the norm. Probably, experiments will be carried out with aerospace reusable systems, new fuels, structures. It is possible that by the end of the 20s a single-stage reusable carrier will be built and will begin to fly.
Part Two: Mankind's Transformation into a Space Civilization - 2030 to late XXI century
There are many bases on the Moon, both public and private. The natural satellite of the Earth is used as a resource base (energy, ice, various components of regolith), an experimental and scientific testing ground where space technologies for long-distance flights are tested, infrared telescopes are placed in shaded craters, and radio telescopes are located on the reverse side.
The moon is included in the earth's economy - the energy of lunar power plants (fields solar panels and solar concentrators built from local resources) is transmitted both to space tugs in near-Earth space and to Earth. The problem of delivery of matter from the surface of the Moon to low Earth orbit (braking in the atmosphere and capture) has been solved. Lunar hydrogen and oxygen are used in lunar and near-Earth gas stations. Of course, all these are only the first experiments, but private firms are already making fortunes on them. Helium-3 has so far been mined only in small quantities for experiments related to fusion rocket engines.
On Mars - a scientific station-colony. A joint project of "private traders" (mainly Elon Musk) and states (mainly the United States). People have the opportunity to return to Earth, but many fly away to the new world forever. The first experiments on the possible terraforming of the planet. On Phobos - a transshipment base for heavy interplanetary spacecraft.
martian base
Source: Bryan Versteeg
Throughout the solar system, there are many probes, the purpose of which is to prepare for development, to search for resources. Flights of high-speed devices with nuclear power propulsion systems into the Kuiper belt to the recently discovered gas giant - the ninth planet. Rovers on Mercury, balloon, floating, flying probes on Venus, the study of satellites of giant planets (for example, submarines in the seas of Titan).
Distributed networks of space telescopes make it possible to capture exoplanets by direct observation and even map (very low resolution) planets around nearby stars. Large automatic observatories have been sent into the focus of the Sun's gravitational lens.
Single-stage reusable launch vehicles have been deployed and are operating, non-rocket methods of delivering cargo are actively used on the Moon - mechanical and electromagnetic catapults.
There are many tourist space stations flying. There are several stations - scientific institutes with artificial gravity (torus station).
Heavy manned interplanetary spacecraft have not only reached Mars and ensured the deployment of a colony base on the Red Planet, but are also actively exploring the asteroid belt. Many expeditions have been sent to near-Earth asteroids, an expedition to the orbit of Venus has been carried out. Preparations have begun for the deployment of research bases around the giant planets Jupiter and Saturn. Perhaps the giant planets will be the target of the first test flight of an interplanetary vehicle with a thermonuclear engine with magnetic plasma confinement.
Launching a weather balloon on Titan
After Gagarin's flight, people seriously thought that in just a few decades Mankind would conquer outer space, colonize the Moon, Mars and, possibly, more distant planets. However, these forecasts were overly optimistic. But now several states and private companies are seriously working to revive the space race that has lost its heat. In our today's review, we will tell you about some of the most ambitious similar projects of our time.
American multimillionaire Dennis Tito, who at one time became the first space tourist, created the Inspiration Mars program, the goal of which is to launch a private mission to Mars in 2018. Why in 2018? The fact is that at the launch of the ship on January 5 this year, there is a unique opportunity to fly along the minimum trajectory. The next time such a chance will fall only after thirteen years.
The American advanced development agency DARPA plans to launch a large-scale space program that has been developed for a hundred years or more. Its main goal is the desire to explore the space beyond solar system for its potential colonization by Mankind. At the same time, DARPA itself plans to spend only $ 100 million on this, while the main financial burden will fall on the shoulders of private investors. This mode of cooperation within the agency has been compared to exploratory expeditions of the 16th century, during which their leaders, operating under the flags different countries, as a result, received most of the income from the territories annexed to the Crown and the status of the royal governor in them.
Renowned director James Cameron founded a foundation that will deal with the problem of using asteroids for useful purposes for Mankind. After all, these space objects are full of rare earth elements. And the same platinum in a 500-meter asteroid may turn out to be more than has been mined on Earth in its entire history. So why not try to get these resources? Cameron's initiative was joined by Google, The Perot Group, Hillwood and some other companies.
Japan plans in the very near future to build a so-called. "solar sail" ESAIL, which, thanks to the pressure of the sun's rays on its surface, will move through outer space at a speed of 19 kilometers per second. And this will make it the fastest man-made object in the solar system.
In April 2015, the Russian Space Agency announced its ambitious plans to build habitable bases on the Moon and Mars by 2050. At the same time, all significant descents within its framework will not be carried out from Baikonur, from the new Vostochny cosmodrome, which is currently under construction in the Far East.
Foreshadowing the further development of private flights to the Earth's orbit, Russian company Orbital Technologies, together with RKK Energia, launched a project called Commercial Space Station to create the first hotel for space tourists. It is expected that its first module will be sent into space in 2015-2016.
One of the most promising areas for space exploration is the development of the idea of a space elevator, which could lift objects into the Earth's orbit along a cable. The Japanese company Obayashi Corporation promises to create the first such transport by 2050. This elevator will be able to move at a speed of 200 kilometers per hour and carry 30 people at the same time.
In Earth's orbit there is a huge number of old, exhausted satellites, which have turned into the so-called " space debris". And this despite the fact that the launch of only one kilogram of cargo there is an average of 30 thousand dollars. For this reason, the DARPA agency decided to start developing the Phoenix space station, which will catch old satellites and collect new, functioning ones from them.
