International trade. Dynamics of export and import. Foreign trade turnover

After an exceptionally unfavorable 2016, the foreign trade of the Russian Federation, following the economy, moved to growth. The revival of foreign trade was facilitated by the increase in prices for raw materials, the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate and the increase in production rates. Let's consider how the structure of Russia's imports has changed, and also touch on exports.

The structure of exports and imports of Russia in 2017

In the first half of 2017, foreign trade turnover grew with a slight acceleration. In six months, it reached $270.4 billion and increased by 28.1% compared to the same period in 2016. The positive changes in foreign trade that began in the second half of 2016 have become more pronounced.

The decisive factor was the rise in oil prices due to the agreements reached by the producing states to reduce the volume of oil sales. Due to the reduction in total exports since the autumn of 2016, oil prices began to rise, and in February 2017 the cost of one barrel of Brent oil exceeded $56.1. In May, the oil-producing countries extended the agreement for another three quarters, until the end of March. next year. The total volume of cuts was maintained by producers at the level of 1.8 million barrels per day, so that excess supply was removed from the market and prices continued to decline.

Along with oil prices, the cost of other commodities increased: hydrocarbons, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, gold and semi-finished products. As a result, the ruble began to strengthen against other currencies. At the beginning of the second quarter, the dollar cost 56.4 rubles, the euro - 60.4 rubles. But soon the value of the currency in rubles began to decline again.

The growth of foreign trade was facilitated by the growth in production volumes. According to Rosstat, the volume indicator industrial production in the first half of 2017 increased by 2% compared to the same period last year. An unpredictably high performance in the computer manufacturing industry total cost their production amounted to 13.7 billion rubles (the volume increased by more than 70%). Manufacturers of sunflower oil (+18.9%), knitwear (+24%), petroleum coke (+30.8%) have more modest indicators.

The state, as before, does its best to support big business, thanks to which growth is ensured in many industries, for example, in agriculture. Funds are also allocated to support exports, for example, through the Ministry of Industry and Trade in 2017, 26 billion rubles were allocated for this.

Despite the fact that the exchange rate of the ruble rose in the first half of the year (which is unprofitable for those involved in the export of products abroad), export volumes continued to grow.

According to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, in the first half of the year, export growth amounted to 28.7% and reached $168.6 billion. Moreover, the largest increase compared to the first months of 2016 was recorded in such months as January (+46.8%) and March (+34.9%).

The stabilization of the ruble exchange rate stimulated the growth of imports, which amounted to $101.8 billion in the first half of 2017 (an increase of 27.2% compared to the first half of 2016). The increase in the volume of imports was facilitated by a decrease in inflation and a slow but unambiguous recovery in domestic demand. A special index of the Ministry of Economic Development, developed to assess consumer demand, turned out to be at the highest level in the last three years. The consumer activity of Russians has returned to the level of the pre-crisis 2014.

The resumption of imports indicates that domestic enterprises have adapted to the working conditions during the sanctions and the food embargo. It didn't take long for businesses to forge new connections after the 2014 ban on the supply of goods from the European Union, the United States, Canada and other countries. Instead of the former supplier countries, new ones appear, although it cannot be argued that other suppliers are more profitable in economic terms and provide goods of equal quality.

Commodity structure of Russian imports in 2017

The most significant growth in imports was recorded for certain types of engineering products, in particular, industrial and laboratory equipment, aircraft, engine parts Vehicle as well as pharmaceuticals.

In the structure of Russian imports, the percentage of investment goods increased by 1.4 points - up to 26%, consumer goods, on the contrary, decreased by two points - up to 27.5%.

The volume of imports of consumer goods in the first half of 2017 increased by $4.3 billion compared to 2016 (an increase of 18.5%) and reached $27.8 billion. The largest growth recorded:

in the import of drugs prepared for retail sale (+24.1% or $744.7 million);

in import butter and dairy pastes - twice (by $153.7 million);

in import leather shoes– by 31.6% (by $150.6 million);

in imports of insecticides and herbicides prepared for retail sale - by 23.2% (by $114.7 million).

Picture 1. Commodity structure of Russian imports.

Various ways to circumvent sanctions led to the fact that the import of sanctioned goods in the first half of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016 in value terms increased by 23.9% (up to $6.6 billion).

Note that the slogan of import substitution was perceived by a number of manufacturers as something absolute (as substitution at any cost). Although at all times there was a division of labor associated with conditions and experience. Only a spoiled gentleman with an abundance of money could afford to grow pineapples in conditions Central Russia. The economy forced to buy and produce what is profitable, stimulating trade.

In the structure of Russian imports, the volume of imports of agricultural goods and food from Turkey in the first half of 2017 amounted to 347.5 thousand tons (by $371.5 million), an increase of 58.7% compared to the same period in 2016. More than 72 thousand tons of tangerines and clementines, over 57 thousand tons of lemons, about 25 thousand tons of oranges, almost 18 thousand tons of grapefruits were imported. This jump was due to amendments made to the list of Turkish products that are not allowed to be imported into the Russian Federation.

Timely adjustment was due to the economic situation. For example, in late autumn, when the cost own production vegetables has increased, it is possible to sanction the import of high-quality and cheaper tomatoes from Turkey.

In the first half of 2017, the share of non-CIS countries in the trade turnover was 87.7%, in the structure of exports - 87.0%, in the structure of Russian imports - 88.8%.

Figure 2 shows the distribution of the share of imports and exports of Russia by its main trading partners:

Figure 2 . Russia's main trading partners among non-CIS countries in the first half of 2017 (billion dollars).

In the first half of 2017, compared to the first half of 2016, Russian imports grew sharply: from the EU countries - by 23.7%, APEC - by 32.0%, CIS - by 28.3%.

The share of non-CIS countries in the value of imports in the first half of 2017 decreased by 0.1% compared to 2016 and amounted to 88.8%. The share of the CIS countries for this period is more than 11%.

A significant item in the structure of Russian imports is still machinery, equipment and vehicles. The volume of their purchases in the first half of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016 increased by 33.8% to $47.4 billion. And specific gravity this group of goods in the structure of Russian imports increased by more than 2% to 46.9%. Imports grew the most:

industrial and laboratory equipment (+ 77.1%);

aircraft (helicopters and airplanes) (+50.9%);

engine parts for vehicles (+ 44.8%);

computers and their units (+ 35.8%);

telephone and telegraph devices (+ 22.6%).

In addition to imports to Russia of machinery, equipment and vehicles, imports of chemical products, rubber, foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials continued. Their share among goods purchased by the Russian Federation in the first half of 2017 amounted to 78.7%. Increased in value terms:

food imports by more than 15%;

import of chemical products - by 19%.

This is due to the increase in imports:

butter - twice;

pork - by 37.9%;

tires - by 37.8%;

various kinds cheeses and cottage cheese - by 27.2%;

drugs – slightly more than 24%;

insecticides and herbicides - by almost 23.2%;

sera, vaccines - by almost 22%.

Non-CIS countries are Russia's main trade partners. Their share in the trade turnover of the Russian Federation in the first half of 2017 was almost 90%, in the structure of exports - 87%, in the structure of imports - 88.8%.

Russia's foreign trade turnover with non-CIS countries in the first half of 2017 amounted to $235.5 billion and increased by 28.5% compared to 2016. Exports grew by almost 30% (up to $145.8 billion), imports - by 27% (up to $89.7 billion).

The leaders among the EU member states were Germany and the Netherlands (to a greater extent due to the high volumes of re-export of Russian hydrocarbons), as well as Italy, which accounted for more than 46% of the total foreign trade turnover with a group of EU countries.

The main partners of Russia in the field of foreign trade among the APEC countries are China, the USA, Japan and the Republic of Korea, in the first half of 2017 they accounted for more than 83% of the total foreign trade turnover.

According to the results of the first half of 2017, China became the largest foreign trade partner of the Russian Federation (more than 14% of the trade turnover or $38.4 billion). Domestic exports to China amounted to 18.2 billion dollars, compared to the first half of 2016, it increased by 39.5%.

The percentage of participation of other major partners in this period was 8.5 for Germany, 7.7 for the Netherlands and 4.2 for Italy. The commodity structure of Russia's exports and imports is shown in Figure 3:

Figure 3 . Commodity structure of exports and imports of Russia in 2016.

The share of CIS countries in the structure of exports and imports of goods is shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4 . The share of the CIS countries in Russia's foreign trade (billion dollars).

The growth of domestic foreign trade turnover with the CIS countries in the first half of 2017 increased by more than 27%, reaching $33.1 billion. Russia's exports to the CIS countries grew by 26.5% to $21.8 billion, while imports from the CIS countries grew by 28.3% to $11.3 billion. With all the CIS countries in the first half of 2017, the Russian Federation had a trade surplus.

In the commodity structure of Russia's exports to the CIS countries (Figure 5), the share of machinery, equipment and vehicles, metals and products from them has become higher. At the same time, the share of fuel and energy products, chemical industry products and rubber, foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials, wood and pulp and paper products has fallen.

In the commodity structure of Russian imports from the CIS countries, the share of metals and products from them increased, mineral products. The share of machinery, equipment and vehicles, chemical industry products, textiles and footwear, food products and agricultural raw materials has become lower.

Figure 5 . Commodity structure of Russian imports and exports to the CIS countries

What will be the structure of Russian imports: forecast for 2018

In 2017-2018, imports of goods will continue to increase by an average of 3.6% per year in real terms. The volume of imports will be $212 billion in 2017 and $223 billion in 2018.

In the commodity structure of imports, the share of machinery, equipment and vehicles will increase from 44.3% in 2015 to 46.1% in 2018. The share of investments, which decreased to 23.3% in 2015 against 25.2% in 2014, will tend to the previous level. The growth rate of investment imports will outpace the growth of consumer and intermediate imports and will average about 5% in 2017-2018. At the same time, the share of investment imports in the forecast period will not yet reach the level of 2014.

The average growth rate of consumer imports is estimated to be 3.1%. After 2016, the share of consumer goods will begin to decline annually by 0.5% due to an increase in investment imports and more and more high-quality import substitution in consumption.

Imports of intermediate products, representing a third of imported goods, will grow the slowest, averaging 2.6% per year. The contribution of intermediate imports will remain unchanged.

The dynamics of exports and imports will lead to fluctuations in the trade balance. In 2016, the trade balance fell to $130 billion, and by 2018 it will increase to $142 billion.

The import intensity of the national economy will decrease from 14.2% in 2017 to 13.1% in 2018.

The current account surplus in the baseline forecast will increase from $62 billion in 2015 to $73 billion in 2018. The main reason for this will be an increase in the nominal growth of exports of goods (from -31% in 2015 to +6% in 2018) with a simultaneous increase in imports of goods (from -36% in 2015 to +5% in 2018). As a result, by the end of the forecast period, the trade balance will decrease from $146 billion to $142 billion. The balance of services deficit will decrease from $39 billion in 2015 to $21 billion in 2018. At the same time, the national currency will weaken (decrease in the real effective rate to 1.8%). The weakening of the real exchange rate of the ruble during this period will restrain the growth of the current account deficit. In the future, the strengthening of the national currency is expected (an increase in the real exchange rate of the ruble in 2018 by 2.9%), which will lead to a reduction in the current account.

The net capital outflow under the base case will be reduced and in 2018 will amount to $50 billion.

The base version of the forecast predicts an increase in foreign exchange reserves over the forecast period from $6 billion in 2017 to $20 billion in 2018.

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It amounted to 471.2 billion US dollars and decreased by 11.2% compared to January-December 2015.

Trade balance was positive in the amount of 103.9 billion US dollars, which is 58.1 billion US dollars less than in January-December 2015.

Russian export in January-December 2016 amounted to 287.6 billion US dollars and decreased by 17.0% compared to January-December 2015.

The basis of Russian exports in January-December 2016 to the countries of the far abroad Traditionally, fuel and energy products were the share of which in the commodity structure of exports to these countries amounted to 62.0% (in January-December 2015 - 66.5%). Compared to January-December 2015, the value of fuel and energy goods decreased by 22.5%, while the physical volume increased by 3.2%. Among the goods of the fuel and energy complex, the physical volumes of exports of natural gas increased by 13.8%, coal - by 9.1%, crude oil - by 6.6%. At the same time, the volume of deliveries of petroleum products decreased by 9.4%, including liquid fuels - by 17.3%, diesel fuel - by 5.9%.

In the total value of exports to non-CIS countries, the share of metals and products from them in January-December 2016 amounted to 10.0% (in January-December 2015 - 9.4%). The value of exports of these goods decreased compared to January-December 2015 by 11.9%, while the physical volume increased by 4.4%. The physical volumes of exports of flat-rolled products from iron and non-alloyed steel increased by 13.6%, semi-finished products from iron and non-alloyed steel - by 3.6%, aluminum - by 2.6%. At the same time, physical volumes of exports of copper and copper alloys decreased by 10.1%.

The share of exports of machinery and equipment in January-December 2016 amounted to 7.3% (in January-December 2015 - 6.0%). The cost volume of exports of this commodity group remained at the level of the previous year. Deliveries of land transport means, except for railway ones, increased by 67.8%, optical instruments and devices - by 18.6%, electrical equipment- by 26.4%. At the same time, supplies of mechanical equipment decreased by 27.2%.

The share of exports of chemical industry products in January-December 2016 amounted to 6.0% (in January-December 2015 - 6.5%). Compared with January-December last year, the value of exports of these products decreased by 22.5%, and physical - by 0.6%. The physical volumes of supplies of soap and detergents decreased by 15.3%, pharmaceutical products - by 9.0%, fertilizers - by 2.2%. At the same time, the physical volumes of exports of products did not increase. organic chemistry by 7.2%, rubber, rubber and products from them - by 6.8%, plastics and products from them - by 4.2%.

The share of exports of food products and raw materials for their production in the commodity structure of exports in January-December 2016 amounted to 5.2% (in January-December 2015 - 4.0%). Compared to January-December 2015, the cost volumes of supplies of these goods increased by 7.7%, physical volumes - by 12.8%.

The share of exports of timber and pulp and paper products in January-December 2016 amounted to 3.3% (in January-December 2015 - 2.7%). The physical volume of exports of this commodity group increased by 11.8%, including sawn timber - by 20.8%, plywood - by 12.5%, raw timber - by 4.3%, pulp - by 4.4%. The volume of newsprint paper exports decreased by 2.5%.

In the commodity structure of exports to the CIS countries in January-December 2016, the share of fuel and energy products amounted to 32.6% (in January-December 2015 - 39.3%). The cost and physical volumes of exports decreased by 31.2% and 8.7%, respectively. The physical volumes of electricity exports decreased by 34.5%, natural gas - by 16.6%, oil products - by 3.8%. At the same time, the volume of supplies of hard coal increased by 4.9%.

The share of machinery and equipment in January-December 2016 amounted to 16.7% (in January-December 2015 - 16.5%). The cost volume of exports of engineering products decreased by 15.8%. In particular, the cost volumes of deliveries of ground transport facilities, except for railway ones, decreased by 43.7%, and mechanical equipment - by 10.0%.

The share of chemical industry products in the commodity structure of exports to the CIS countries in January-December 2016 amounted to 15.5% (in January-December 2015 - 13.4%). Compared to January-December 2015, the value of supplies of these goods decreased by 4.0%, while physical volumes increased by 9.4%. The physical volumes of exports of fertilizers increased by 20.8%, pharmaceutical products - by 15.6%, rubber and rubber - by 8.6%, organic chemistry products - by 6.9%, inorganic chemistry products - by 6.3%, and export volumes of plastics and products from them decreased by 3.0%.

The share of metals and products from them in exports to the CIS countries in January-December 2016 amounted to 11.7% (in January-December 2015 - 10.8%). The value of exports of this commodity group decreased compared to January-December 2015 by 9.8%, and physical - by 7.8%. The physical volumes of exports of ferrous metals and products from them decreased by 8.2%, including semi-finished products from iron and non-alloy steel - by 11.8%. At the same time, physical volumes of exports of copper and copper alloys increased by 6.3%.

The share of exports of food products and raw materials for their production in the commodity structure of exports in January-December 2016 amounted to 11.2% (in January-December 2015 - 9.5%). Compared to January-December 2015, the value of supplies of these goods decreased by 2.0%. The physical volumes of exports of vegetable oil increased by 14.1%, milk and cream - by 13.6%, fresh and frozen fish - by 9.4%, cheese and cottage cheese - by 2.1%.

The share of exports of timber and pulp and paper products in January-December 2016 amounted to 4.4% (in January-December 2015 - 3.8%). The cost and physical volumes of exports of this commodity group decreased compared to January-December 2015 by 3.9 and 6.0%, respectively. The physical volumes of exports of sawn timber, as well as newsprint paper, decreased by 16.4%, pulp – by 9.5%.

Russian import in January-December 2016 amounted to 183.6 billion US dollars and decreased by 0.4% compared to January-December 2015.

In the commodity structure of imports from foreign countries the share of machinery and equipment in January-December 2016 accounted for 50.2% (in January-December 2015 - 48.0%). The value of imports of these products increased by 5.4% compared to January-December 2015. The cost volume of deliveries of mechanical equipment increased by 4.1%, electrical equipment, as well as optical instruments and devices - by 1.8%. At the same time, the physical volumes of import of passenger cars decreased by 24.8%, trucks – by 17.5%.

The share of chemical industry products in the commodity structure of imports in January-December 2016 amounted to 19.0% (in January-December 2015 - 19.1%). The cost volume of imports of chemical industry products slightly increased compared to January-December 2015 by 0.6%, and physical - by 4.0%. The volumes of supplies of soap and detergents increased by 2.5%, as well as cosmetics or toilet products - by 1.9%. The physical volumes of supplies of varnishes and paints decreased by 5.9%.

The share of imports of food products and raw materials for their production in January-December 2016 amounted to 12.5% ​​(in January-December 2015 - 13.7%). Cost and physical volumes of imports decreased by 8.1% and 9.1%, respectively. The physical volumes of supplies of cattle meat decreased by 22.3%, cheeses and cottage cheese - by 15.8%, fresh and frozen fish - by 11.6%, supplies of roasted coffee increased by 9.5%.

The share of textiles and footwear in January-December 2016 amounted to 5.8% (in January-December 2015 - 6.0%). The value and physical volumes of imports of these goods decreased compared to the same period last year by 2.0% and 8.5% respectively.

The share of metals and products from them in the commodity structure of imports from non-CIS countries in January-December 2016 amounted to 5.3% (in January-December 2015 - 5.6%). The value of this commodity group compared with January-December 2015 decreased by 4.3%, and the physical volume - by 5.1%. The physical volumes of purchases of ferrous metals and products from them decreased by 4.0%.

In the commodity structure of imports from CIS countries in January-December 2016, the share of food products and raw materials for their production amounted to 23.3% (in January-December 2015 - 20.8%). The physical volumes of supplies of food products compared to January-December 2015 increased by 2.2%, including cheese and cottage cheese - by 7.4%, butter - by 2.7%. At the same time, the physical volumes of supplies of pork decreased by 83.8%, citrus fruits - by 40.1%, meat poultry- by 8.5%.

The share of machinery and equipment in January-December 2016 amounted to 23.3% (in January-December 2015 - 20.2%). The value of imports of this commodity group increased by 6.2% compared to January-December 2015. The cost volume of deliveries of means of land transport, except for the railway, increased by 24.2%. At the same time, the supply of optical instruments and apparatus decreased by 14.2%, mechanical equipment - by 7.6%. The physical volumes of import of cars increased by 4.2%, and trucks - by 51.2%.

The share of chemical industry products in the commodity structure of imports in January-December 2016 amounted to 14.2% (in January-December 2015 - 14.9%). The cost volume of imports of chemical industry products decreased by 12.1% compared to January-December 2015, while the physical volume increased by 3.1%. The physical volumes of supplies of plastics and products from them increased by 32.5%, organic chemistry products - by 24.6%, pharmaceutical products - by 8.6%. The physical volumes of supplies of varnishes and paints decreased by 43.8%.

The share of metals and products from them in the commodity structure of imports from the CIS countries in January-December 2016 amounted to 13.8% (in January-December 2015 - 12.5%). The cost volume of this commodity group increased by 1.9% compared to January-December 2015, and the physical volume - by 9.9%. The physical volumes of imports of pipes increased by 40.2%, flat-rolled products made of iron and non-alloyed steel - by 17.8%.

The share of textiles and footwear in January-December 2016 amounted to 7.7% (in January-December 2015 - 5.6%). The cost and physical volumes of imports of these goods increased compared to the same period last year by 25.8% and 40.8%, respectively.

The share of imports of fuel and energy products in January-December 2016 amounted to 3.9% (in January-December 2015 - 10.2%). The value of this commodity group compared with January-December 2015 decreased by 65.0%, physical - by 13.5%.

In the country structure of Russia's foreign trade The leading place is occupied by the European Union as the country's largest economic partner. The share of the European Union in January-December 2016 accounted for 42.8% of Russian trade turnover (in January-December 2015 - 44.8%), the CIS countries - 12.1% (12.6%), the EAEU countries - 8.3% (8.1%), APEC countries - 30.0% (28.1%).

The main trading partners of Russia in January-December 2016 among non-CIS countries were: China, the trade turnover with which amounted to 66.1 billion US dollars (104.0% compared to January-December 2015), Germany - 40.7 billion dollars .USA (88.9%), the Netherlands - 32.3 billion USD (73.4%), the USA - 20.3 billion USD (97.0%), Italy - 19.8 billion. USD (64.6%), Japan - USD 16.1 billion (75.4%), Turkey - USD 15.8 billion (67.9%), Republic of Korea - 15.1 USD billion (83.9%), France - USD 13.3 billion (114.1%), Poland - USD 13.1 billion (94.9%).

Volumes of trade with the CIS countries in January-December 2015-2016 are given below:

million USD

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education vocational education

NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES

Training course"Macroeconomics"

Coursework on the topic:

"Structure of Russian imports and exports: causes, dynamics, consequences"

Completed: Art. gr. MP-13-1

Nikitin D.V.

Scientific adviser:

k. e. n., Assoc. Wellem L.A.

Moscow 2013

Introduction

Conclusion

Introduction

Relevance of the topic.International trade takes important place in the system of international economic relations, and it is by it that one can judge the state of the economy as a whole. It plays a significant role in the formation and development of the country's economy. AT general view foreign trade is a means by which countries can successfully develop specialization, increase the productivity of their resources and, consequently, increase overall output.

In the conditions of Russia's transitional economy, the importance of international trade is growing. An unstable economy is developing under the influence of globalization processes, which implies a special role for foreign trade. An analysis of the dynamics of Russia's foreign trade is significant, since Russia is currently actively fighting to increase its position in the international market, and international trade for Russia is the main source of funds for raising the national economy and solving domestic economic and social problems. Thus, the study of the essence, dynamics and structure of foreign trade is an important element for determining the state of the economy as a whole.

aimgiven term paper is an analysis of the structure of Russia's foreign trade.

Based on the goal, the following tasks were set:

consider the concept and structure of foreign trade;

analyze the main indicators of foreign trade;

determine the place of Russia's foreign trade and its role in the world

economy;

analyze the dynamics of Russia's foreign trade;

consider the prospects for the development of Russia's foreign trade.

import export foreign trade

Object of studyis the foreign trade (import and export) of Russia.

The study of the processes and patterns of Russia's foreign trade was carried out by such domestic economists as S.Yu. Witte, P.B. Struve, V.I. Pokrovsky, I.M. Kulisher, G.I. Khanin, F.Ya. Polyansky and many others.

Work structure: introduction, three chapters, conclusion and list of sources used.

The first chapter discusses the concept, structure, main indicators of foreign trade, as well as Russia's place in the world economy.

The second chapter analyzes the dynamics of Russia's foreign trade in January-July 2013.

The third chapter examines the prospects for the development of Russia's foreign trade.

1. Foreign trade as a form of international economic relations

1.1 The concept and structure of foreign (international) trade

Foreign trade is the exchange of a country with other countries, consisting of export (export) and import (import) of products. It is carried out mainly through market transactions, formalized by foreign trade contracts. Foreign trade is the main and leading historical form of international economic relations.

Regulation of foreign trade is carried out by the state. For this, such means as licensing, customs tariffs, contingent, direct and indirect subsidies and other methods are used.

In modern conditions, all subjects of the world economy take part in foreign trade. This is based on the international division of labor. With the help of the improvement of the named division of labor (single, private and general) and the intensive development of international specialization, a variety of directions and forms of international trade is born. The scientific and technological revolution has a special influence on it.

The degree of participation in foreign trade of individual national economies is determined by the level of development of commodity circulation and commodity production. The origins of commodity production and circulation find their existence already under the slave system. However, due to the predominance of subsistence farming in pre-capitalist countries, a small share of all production was involved.

It was the development of the market economy and commodity production that gave a powerful impetus to the expansion of foreign trade.

The more developed the market economy, the greater the role played by international trade, more active participation is required from national economies in the dynamics of imports and exports. Contradictions between consumption and production can be resolved by selling products abroad, but they cannot be fully resolved through exports.

At the same time, the mutual influence and interdependence of national economies in front of each other is increasing. They become so intensified that a change in the functioning of the economy of one country can affect changes in the economic development of other countries, which may cause crises.

In addition, thanks to participation in foreign trade, the intensity of the reproduction process increases in national economies, that is, there is an increase in specialization, an increase in the degree of equipment utilization, the creation of the possibility of organizing mass production, and an increase in the efficiency of the introduction of innovative technologies.

Thanks to active participation in foreign trade, progressive structural shifts are taking place in national economies. Many developing countries (especially Asian ones) pay great attention to the growth of exports, because they have become the main component of the development of industrialization and the acceleration of economic growth. Export earnings are a significant source of capital accumulation for the country's industrial development. The expansion of exports helps to mobilize and find ways to make the best use of factors of production, which in turn leads to increased productivity and incomes. Involvement industrial enterprises that supply products to the foreign market, in the sphere of international competition, it is necessary to constantly improve them, that is, to increase the technical level, improve the quality of products manufactured in the country, which is a factor in the growth of labor productivity and economic efficiency. Thus, countries where foreign trade was effectively expanding, mainly exports - Germany in the 50s and 60s, Japan in the 70s and 80s, and the new industrial countries of Asia ("Asian tigers") in the 90s, developed most rapidly.

Summing up the above, foreign trade plays a significant role in the system of international economic relations.

1.2 Foreign Trade Scorecard

The degree of participation of any country in international trade is determined by the indicators of foreign trade. The higher these indicators are, the more efficient the economic development of a certain country will be, and the more it will influence the world economic processes taking place in the world economy.

Evaluation of foreign trade is carried out through such concepts as imports, exports and foreign trade turnover.

Export is the process of exporting products from the country in order to sell them and make a profit. Import is the process of bringing goods into a country from abroad.

There are the following export types:

a) export of products produced and processed in the given country;

b) export of semi-finished products or raw materials for the purpose of their processing abroad under the supervision of customs control and with the condition of further return;

c) re-export is the export of products that have already been previously imported from abroad;

d) temporary export of domestic or foreign products abroad (for example, to fairs or exhibitions);

e) export of goods within the framework of transnational companies.

Imports are classified in the same way as exports:

a) importation into the country of manufactured and processed goods of the importing country;

b) import of semi-finished products or raw materials for the purpose of their processing in a given country and with the condition of their further return abroad;

c) re-import - import of domestic products from abroad, which has already been imported;

d) temporary importation of products for their sale at exhibitions or fairs;

e) importation of goods within transnational companies.

The sum of imports and exports is the country's foreign trade turnover. It is calculated by the formula (1)

Where B - foreign trade turnover;

E amount of export;

And - the amount of imports.

The country's foreign trade turnover is measured in value units, not natural ones, because it can include completely different goods. Of course, the sum of exports and imports of homogeneous goods can be measured in natural units (tons, meters, barrels). The foreign trade turnover does not include the export of goods as assistance to other countries for any reason and non-commercial operations.

Foreign trade turnover in Russia is calculated strictly for the calendar period, regardless of when, according to the plan, the import and export of products occurs.

The concept of foreign trade balance is also important. The balance of foreign trade is the difference between exports and imports in a certain period of time. We will reveal this more clearly in formula (2)

where B is the balance of foreign trade.

It is obvious that the balance of foreign trade can be either positive (exports exceed imports) or negative (imports exceed exports), but almost never equals zero. In this situation, the concept of the country's trade balance is revealed. So, with a negative balance of foreign trade, a passive balance of trade arises, and with a positive one, an active one. The higher the value of the trade balance, the better it is reflected in the exchange rate of the national currency.

For effective analysis foreign trade uses its own system of indicators.

First, there is an indicator of the growth rate of world exports. Its calculation is shown in formula (3).

(3)

where - the value of the growth rate of world exports;

E1 - export of the current period;

E0 - base period export.

Secondly, there are indicators that characterize the dependence of the country's economic development on foreign trade, namely, export and import quotas.

An export quota is the volume and name of products that the state allows various firms and enterprises to export from the country. Its calculation is given in formula (4).

where Ke - the value of the export quota;

GDP is the gross domestic product for a given period of time.

An import quota is the volume and name of products allowed by the state to be imported into the country from abroad. It is calculated by the formula (5)

where Ki is the value of the import quota.

1.3 The place of Russia's foreign trade in the world economy

The current position of Russia in the world economy is characterized by contradictory trends. If you look from one side, then our country owns a large number of labor and natural resources, a highly developed level of education of the population, a significant potential in production and scientific and technological progress, because it occupies a leading position in the production and export of most products. But on the other hand, Russia's position in the world economy has fallen after the economic downturn of the 1990s.

By many criteria, Russia is at a transitional stage from developing to developed countries, when it itself has the status of a moderately developed country. In other words, based on the indicators of external factors in the development of the Russian economy, our country is at a turning point in this period of time.

Even in the days of the Russian Empire, there were conditions for the country's weak interest in economic relations with other countries, namely, a large but sparsely saturated domestic market, a significant state demand for manufactured goods. In addition, during the times of the USSR, long-term economic isolation from the world market was added to these factors. Only the transition of the country to a market economy in the 1990s contributed to its integration with the world economy.

After the collapse of the USSR, Russia was forced to simultaneously solve three particularly important economic tasks that are very closely related to each other. Firstly, this is the transition from the command-administrative (planned) economic system to the market. Secondly, the creation and development of competitive firms, factories, enterprises that correspond to Russia's advantage in the presence of production factors. Thirdly, the effective involvement of the Russian economy in the world market at such levels as macroeconomic, microeconomic and institutional.

All these tasks lead to a rather complex, sometimes inconsistent and far from synchronous solution with uncertain preliminary results that require significant costs. Russia is most effectively solving the first task and partially the third, when the second is only at the stage of developing a program.

Thus, the formation of Russia's foreign trade, which ensures the flow of goods or services, capital, as well as information between our country and other national economies, takes more and more every time. importance, as international trade begins to increasingly affect the stability of the national monetary currency, formation of budget revenues and expenditures.

Russia, with 144 million people, huge mineral, energy and highly skilled labor resources, developing unique technologies in various sectors of the economy, is a large market for both exports and imports of various products. But the degree of realization of this in the sphere of the world market is very small.

Among the industrialized countries, Russia occupies one of the last places in terms of economic development. However, the share of Russia in world GDP increased from 3.7% in 1997 to 4.1% in 2012.

Russia has the following indicators of its participation in the world economy:

export quota in GDP and production of certain goods and services;

import quota in the consumption of various imported goods;

the share of foreign investments in the total volume of investments in the Russian economy.

At the present stage, no country in the world will be able to develop effectively without integration with the world economy, and there is proportional dependence between the degree of involvement in the world economy and the level of development of the country's domestic economy. Integration helps to ensure the convertibility of the national currency and the formation of its exchange rate, facilitate international movement capital, increasing the intensity of competition, accelerating scientific and technological progress. Actively participating in international division labor and exchange, domestic producers feel the impact of the external market in terms of prices, adapt to the high requirements for the level of technology, machinery, equipment, product quality, imposed by the international market. A modern, highly developed country in all areas must have at least several production associations included in the world market.

2. Dynamics of the development of Russia's foreign trade

2.1 General trends export and import

According to preliminary customs statistics, taking into account trade with the Republic of Belarus and the Republic of Kazakhstan, Russia's foreign trade turnover in January-July 2013 amounted to 476.5 billion dollars and increased compared to January-July 2012 in value terms by only 0.1 % (in comparison with January-July 2012 against January-July 2011, when the increase was 5.2%), including with non-CIS countries - an increase of 1.6% to 413.4 billion dollars and CIS countries (Commonwealth of Independent States) - a decline of 8.4% to 63.1 billion dollars. For more clarity, consider Table 1.

Table 1 - Russia's foreign trade in January-July 2013.

Turnover, billion dollars Export, billion dollars Import, billion dollars Balance, billion dollars Total476.5297.2179.3117.9Growth rate, %0.1-1.63.1-10.5Far abroad413 ,4258,3155,1103.2Growth rate, %1,60,43.6…CIS countries63,138,924,214.7Growth rate, % -8.4-13.00.1…

The decrease in the value of Russia's foreign trade in January-July 2013 was due to a significant decrease in export deliveries due to a fall in export prices, which was not fully offset by an increase in the physical volumes of export and import and an increase in import prices.

Export and import activities were extremely uneven due to seasonal fluctuations, instability in the political, economic and commodity environment in various regions of the world in the context of the global economic crisis.

On a monthly basis, we compare the dynamics of foreign trade turnover in January-July 2012 and January-July 2013 in Figure 1.

Figure 1 - Monthly dynamics of foreign trade turnover in January-July 2012-2013 (in billion dollars)

In January 2013, Russia's foreign trade compared to January 2012 showed an increase in trade volumes with a decrease in exports and an increase in imports of goods from non-CIS countries. In February 2013 (compared to the previous month), there was an increase in trade with rapid growth in import and export. In March of the same year, there was also an increase in exports and imports. In April 2013, an increase in trade turnover was noted in Russia's foreign trade due to an increase in imports with a decrease in exports. The sharp decline in May affected both exports and imports equally. The June increase in trade turnover (by 3.5%) was provided by a moderate increase in exports (by 2.1%) with a more significant increase in imports by 5.9%. In July 2013, the increase in trade turnover was mainly due to an increase in imports (by 6.1%) with a slow growth in exports (by 1.7%).

Compared to January-July 2012, when the trade surplus amounted to 128 billion dollars, the balance of foreign trade turnover in January-July 2013 amounted to 117.9 billion dollars, that is, there was a very significant decline by 10.1 billion dollars .

Two factors contributed to this situation:

a) global trends: the economies of countries have been developing slowly since the 2008 crisis, which also affects the volume of world trade. The Eurozone crisis in 2012-2013 also complicated the situation in terms of production rates, demand and consumption;

b) Russia's accession to the WTO. This factor is rather an "internal" reason for the decrease in the volume of foreign trade. Some experts say that the WTO only exposed the existing problems, but in the future it will serve as an incentive for the development of industries, while others, on the contrary, believe that the WTO mechanisms are discriminatory for both manufacturers and the state in terms of the budget, regulatory framework , methods state regulation.

The import-export coverage ratio decreased from 173.6% in January-July 2012 to 165.8% in January-July 2013. The trade turnover imbalance ratio (the share of the net balance in turnover) decreased from 26.9% in January-July 2012 to 24.7% in January-July 2013.

The share of non-CIS countries in January-July 2013 accounted for 86.7% of Russia's trade turnover (in January-July 2012 - 85.5%): the EU (European Union) - 49.9% (48.8%), APEC ( Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) - 24.5% (23.9%), CIS - 13.3% (14.5%), EurAsEC (Eurasian Economic Community) - 7.5% (7.8%) and CU ( Customs unions) - 7,2 % (7,5 %).

The main trading partners in Russia's trade turnover were: China - 10.4% (2012 - 10.4%), the Netherlands - 9.4% (10.4%), Germany - 8.7% (8.9%) , Italy - 6.5% (5.2%), Ukraine - 4.4% (5.4%), Japan - 4.0% (3.7%), Turkey - 3.8% (4.1 %), Belarus - 3.9% (4.7%), Poland - 3.2% (3.3%), USA - 3.2% (3.5%).

2.2 Analysis of exports by commodity and geographical characteristics

In order to consider the geographic and commodity structure of Russia's exports, it is necessary to distinguish two main areas: the CIS countries and non-CIS countries. According to preliminary customs statistics, taking into account trade with the Republic of Belarus and the Republic of Kazakhstan, total exports in January-July 2013 amounted to 297.2 billion dollars and decreased by 1.6% compared to January-July 2012 (in January -July 2012 there was an increase of 5.6%), including non-CIS countries - an increase of 0.4% to 258.3 billion dollars, and to the CIS countries - a decline of 13% to 38.9 billion Let's demonstrate a monthly comparison of the dynamics of Russia's exports in January-July 2012 and January-July 2013 in Figure 2.

Figure 2 - Monthly dynamics of exports in January-July 2012-2013 (in billion dollars)

The physical volume of exports as a whole increased by 3.3%, including to non-CIS countries by 5.5%, to the CIS countries - fell by 8.8%. Average export prices decreased by 4.7%, including for non-CIS countries - by 4.8%, for CIS countries - by 4.7%. This is shown more clearly in Figure 3.

Figure 3 - Indices of value, physical volume and prices of exports in January-July 2013 (January-July 2012 is equal to 100%)

In the total volume of exports, the share of non-CIS countries amounted to 86.9% (in 2012 - 85.2%). In the total volume of exports, the EU accounted for 54.8% (in 2012 - 52.8%), APEC - 18.6% (17.6%), CIS countries - 13.1% (14.8%), EurAsEC - 7.5% (8.2%) and CU 7.0% (7.8%).

The main trading partners of Russia in exports: the Netherlands - 14.0% (in 2012 - 15.3%), Italy - 7.7% (5.8%), Germany - 6.9% (7.1%), China - 6.8% (7.1%), Turkey - 4.8% (5.2%), Ukraine - 3.8% (5.1%), Belarus - 3.8% (5.0% ), Poland - 3.6% (3.9%), Japan - 3.6% (2.8%), Kazakhstan - 3.2% (2.8%).

The decrease in the value of exports in January-July 2013 compared to January-July 2012 was observed in many main commodity groups of Russian exports, which make up the overall commodity structure. Consider it in Figure 4.

Figure 4 - Commodity structure of exports in January-July 2013.

Thus, in the complex of food products and agricultural raw materials, exports of products compared with January-July 2012 decreased by 14.6% (by 7.3 billion dollars), while the share in the total export volume decreased from 2.9% to 2 ,5 %. The decrease in value was caused by a sharp decline in the volume of exports of wheat, rye, barley, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil.

Exports of products in the fuel and energy complex compared with January-July 2012 decreased by 0.8%, when the share in the total export volume increased from 70.8% to 72.2%.

The cost volume of deliveries of products of the metallurgical complex compared with January-July 2012 decreased by 13.7%, and its share in total exports decreased from 9.2% to 8%.

Export of goods in the timber and pulp and paper complex increased by 2.2% compared to January-July 2012, including an increase in the share in the total export volume from 2% to 2.1%.

Exports of products of the chemical and petrochemical complex compared with January-July 2012 decreased by 3.4%, while the share of the total export volume decreased from 6% to 5.9%.

The cost volume of supplies of machinery, equipment and vehicles in the machine-building complex increased by 5.6% compared to January-July 2012, and the share of the total export volume increased from 4.7% to 5%.

According to the overall results, the export quota increased for coal, oil products, natural gas, raw timber, cars and trucks; declined in oil, newsprint, plywood, flat products.

2.3 Analysis of imports by commodity and geographical characteristics

According to preliminary customs statistics, taking into account trade with the Republic of Belarus and the Republic of Kazakhstan, total Russian imports in January-July 2013 amounted to 179.3 billion dollars and increased by 3.1% compared to January-July 2012, in including from non-CIS countries - an increase of 3.6% to 155.1 billion dollars, from the CIS countries - an increase of 0.1% to 20.4 billion dollars.

Monthly comparison of Russian import dynamics in January-July 2012 and January 2013 is shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5 - Monthly dynamics of imports in January-July 2012-2013 (in billion dollars)

The increase in import volumes occurred to a greater extent due to a rise in prices by 2.8% than as a result of an increase in the physical volume of imports by 0.2%. At the same time, the physical volume of imports from non-CIS countries decreased by 0.5%, from the CIS countries - increased by 5.3%. Average import prices in trade with non-CIS countries increased by 4.1%, with CIS countries - decreased by 4.9%. This situation is considered in Figure 6.

Figure 6 - Indices of value, volume and prices of imports in January-July 2013 (January-July 2012 is equal to 100%)

The share of total imports from non-CIS countries increased compared to January-July 2012 from 86.1% to 86.5%, from the CIS countries - 13.5% (in January-July 2012 - 13.9%), EU - 41.8% (41.7%), APEC - 34.4% (34.7%), EurAsEC - 7.5% (7%), and CU - 7.5% (6.9%) .

Russia's main trading partners in imports: China - 16.4% (2012 - 16.2%), Germany - 11.6% (12.1%), Ukraine - 5.2% (6.0%), USA - 5.1% (4.8%), Japan - 4.6% (5.2%), France - 4.3% (4.5%), Italy - 4.4% (4.1%) , Belarus - 4.0% (4.1%), R. Korea - 3.4% (3.6%).

Let us analyze the commodity structure of Russian imports given in Figure 7.

Figure 7 - Commodity structure of imports in January-July 2013.

Imports of machinery, equipment and vehicles accounted for the bulk of the commodity structure - 87.6 billion dollars and increased by 0.3% compared to January-July 2012, while the share of imports decreased from 50.3% to 48.9 %.

In the complex of food products and agricultural raw materials, imports of products increased by 5.8% compared to January-July 2012, while the share in the total import volume increased from 12.8% to 13.1%.

Imports of products in the fuel and energy complex compared with January-July 2012 decreased by 15%, the share in total imports decreased from 2.6% to 2.2%.

The cost volume of imports of products of the metallurgical complex decreased by 6% compared to January-July 2012, while its share in the total import volume increased from 7% to 7.2%.

Imports of goods in the timber and pulp and paper complex increased by 14.1% compared to January-July 2012, including an increase in the share in the total import volume from 1.9% to 2.1%.

Imports of products of the chemical and petrochemical complex increased by 6.5% compared to January-July 2012, the share of total imports increased from 15.3% to 15.8%.

In the import of textiles, textile products and footwear, compared with January-July 2012, there was an increase of 9.3%, the share of total imports increased from 5.6% to 6%.

3. Prospects for the development of Russia's foreign trade

3.1 Foreign trade forecast for 2013-2016

Let us consider a hypothetical forecast of the dynamics of Russia's foreign trade in Figure 8.

Figure 8 - Russia's foreign trade in 2012-2016 (in billion dollars)

For the whole of 2013, exports are expected to be worth $511 billion, up from $528 billion in 2012. This will be driven by a 3.3% decline in prices and a 0.2% decline in volume.

In 2014, exports will decrease to $506 billion as a result of lower oil prices. Products of the fuel and energy complex during this period will reduce the country's exports from $342 billion in 2013 to $328 billion.

In 2014-2016, exports will gradually increase from $506 billion to $518 billion. By 2016, exports of food, machinery and equipment, and timber will increase, but the value of fuel and energy products will decrease.

Imports for the whole of 2013 are projected to increase compared to 2012 from 336 billion dollars to 344 billion dollars. In particular, prices for imported products will increase, and their physical volume will increase. This situation is due to the development of domestic demand and the weakening of the exchange rate.

In 2014-2016, imports will increase from $344 billion to $384 billion. During this period, there will be a rather slow development of food imports, but the import of investment goods will increase very quickly.

The trade balance, having peaked in 2012, will decline quite rapidly from $192 billion to $134 billion in 2016.

The main trading partners of Russia's foreign trade will remain the EU countries (Netherlands, Germany, Italy), Japan, the USA, China, India and the CIS countries (Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan).

3.2 Long-term forecast for the development of the structure of foreign trade

The long-term forecast for the development of imports and exports of Russia is carried out using the inertial scenario, which will last until 2030 and which assumes that the underlying factors operating in this area will retain their influence. It is planned to increase the volume of exports of goods by 2-3 times and services by 4-5 times in comparison with the year 2000. The share of services will increase from 11-14% to 17%.

Foreign trade relations with Kazakhstan and China will expand in the field of transport and transit services. Income from tourism will increase. The volume of sales of services for the development of the intercontinental communications system, the launch of satellites, and the like will also increase.

The structure of merchandise exports will not undergo radical changes. It will also be of a fuel and raw material nature. The share of agricultural products will increase due to the expansion of the range of goods in the agro-industrial complex. Demand for oil and natural gas will skyrocket. The share of exports of energy resources will approximately remain at the same level. The export of machinery and equipment will gain stability, mainly, of course, military equipment and weapons.

The inertial scenario for the development of Russia's foreign trade will be characterized by the following factors:

a) the main place in the total volume of imports will be occupied by the import of services (up to 60%);

c) the volume of imports of food products will not decrease, despite the decrease in the population;

d) it is obvious that there will be a diversification (expansion due to the assortment) of the commodity structure of Russian exports;

e) the state will be more actively involved in the development of the country's foreign trade, especially imports.

The scenario for the development of Russian exports and imports is based on normatively motivated provisions. In other words, in the forecast period up to 2030, the country must develop and implement a set of measures that will overcome " narrow places"and strengthen the existing prerequisites for improving the situation in foreign trade.

Conclusion

Foreign trade is the most developed and widespread form of international economic relations and plays an important role in the development of the country's economy.

Foreign trade is the exchange of a country with other countries, consisting of export (export) and import (import) of goods.

The level of a country's participation in international trade is determined by indicators. Accordingly, the effectiveness of the country's development and its impact on world economic processes depend on the degree of these indicators. Evaluation of foreign trade is carried out through such concepts as exports, imports and foreign trade turnover.

Russia, with 144 million people, huge mineral, energy and highly skilled labor resources, developing unique technologies in various sectors of the economy, is a large market for both exports and imports of various products. But the degree of realization of these resources in the sphere of the world market is very small.

In terms of the volume of natural resources in the international economy, Russia is in the lead. But they can not always be effectively used for such reasons as the unfavorable climate, the depletion of easily accessible deposits, the significant distance between the places of mining and its consumption.

Russia's foreign trade turnover in January-July 2013 increased slightly compared to January-July 2012 in value terms: there was an increase with non-CIS countries and a decline with the CIS countries.

The balance of foreign trade turnover in January-July 2013 decreased compared to the same period in 2012.

Exports in January-July 2013 decreased compared to January-July 2012 due to a slight increase with non-CIS countries and a significant decline with the CIS countries.

Imports in January-July 2013 increased slightly compared to the same period in 2012: there was a slight increase in imports from both non-CIS countries and the CIS countries.

In general, during the period 2013-2016 there will be a slight decrease in exports and a rapid increase in imports of goods, as a result of which the trade balance will decrease significantly.

The long-term forecast for the development of imports and exports of Russia is carried out using the inertial scenario, which will last until 2030 and which assumes that the underlying factors operating in this area will retain their influence.

Scenario long term development Russia's foreign trade is carried out through normative-motivated provisions, thanks to which there will be a strengthening of the prerequisites for improving the country's foreign trade and its integration into the system of world economic relations.

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On the current situation in the economy of the Russian Federation

in January 2019

(in terms of foreign economic activity)

In January 2019, average world prices for key commodities showed multidirectional dynamics - price quotations for oil and nickel increased compared to December 2018, while prices for aluminum and copper, on the contrary, decreased against the previous month.

The average oil price in January 2019 was $59.8/bbl. (average price according to Argus agency), an increase of 4.2% compared to December 2018. Compared to January 2018, the price has decreased by 12.8%. The key reasons for the rise in oil prices were the observance by the countries of the OPEC+ format of agreements to reduce production volumes, as well as the difficult geopolitical situation in Venezuela.

The export duty rate for oil, calculated in accordance with Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 276 dated March 29, 2013 and amendments made to it in November 2014, from February 1, 2019 amounted to 80.7 US dollars per ton, having decreased by 9 .3% compared to January 2019 (USD 89.0 per ton).

Aluminum prices in January 2019 compared to December 2018 decreased (according to the London Metal Exchange) by 3.5% to $1,854/t, copper - by 2.2% to $5,939/t. Nickel prices demonstrated a moderate growth against the previous month by 6.3% to $11,523 per ton. Compared to January 2018, prices for aluminum decreased by 16.1%, copper - by 15.9%, nickel - by 10.4%.

The factor correcting prices down in the past period was the overall weak growth rates of both the global economy and China (the published statistics of China's GDP for 2018 show a slowdown in its growth rates). For aluminum, an additional factor in reducing prices was the lifting of US sanctions against RusAl, which increased supply on the world market.

At the same time, nickel prices increased in January under the influence of a decrease in metal stocks, as well as a reduction in part of the production capacity of the Brazilian company Vale.

Average Commodity Prices in January 2019

Sources: London Metal Exchange, Argus Media, World Bank.

According to the results of January-December 2018 foreign trade turnover amounted to 687.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.5% compared to January-December 2017. Export of goods increased by 25.6% to 449.3 billion US dollars, import - by 4.7% to 238.2 billion US dollars.

AT geographical structure Russia's foreign trade is occupied by the European Union (42.8% of Russian trade or 294.2 billion US dollars in January-December 2018). Trade turnover with the EU increased by 19.3%, while the increase in exports amounted to 28.3%, imports - 2.7%.

The second group in terms of foreign trade turnover in January-December 2018 are the countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (31.0% of Russian foreign trade or 213.2 billion US dollars). Trade turnover with the APEC countries increased by 19.8%, including export - by 34.7%, import - by 5.7%.

Trade turnover with the CIS countries increased by 10.8% to 80.8 billion US dollars, including with the EAEU countries - by 9.0% to 56.1 billion US dollars.

The balance of Russia's foreign trade with all countries increased by 62.1% to 211.2 billion US dollars.

The foreign trade imbalance ratio (balance to turnover ratio) in January-December 2018 increased to 30.7% compared to 22.3% in January-December 2017.

According to the results of January-December 2018, a positive balance was observed in Russia's trade with the majority major groups countries. At the level of individual states, Russia had a significant negative balance in trade with France (-1.9 billion US dollars), Vietnam (-1.2 billion US dollars), Thailand (-1.1 billion US dollars ) and Spain (-$1.0 billion).

Structure of foreign trade turnover by groups of countries in January-December 2018
(January-December 2017)
(according to customs statistics, in percent)

Export of goods in January-December 2018 amounted to 449.3 billion US dollars and increased by 25.6% compared to January-December 2017.

Raw material export in January-December 2018 increased by 33.0% compared to 2017 to 214.3 billion US dollars, which was due to an increase in both contract prices for hydrocarbons (for crude oil - by 34.3%, natural gas - by 22.5%), and physical volumes of supplies (natural gas - by 3.7%, crude oil - by 2.9%). As a result, the value of oil supplies increased by $35.7 billion, natural gas (in gaseous state) - by $10.5 billion.

Non-commodity exports in January-December 2018 amounted to 235.0 billion US dollars, an increase of 19.5% compared to 2017. The largest growth in value volumes was observed in relation to the export of petroleum products - by USD 19.9 billion (+34.1%).

Non-commodity non-energy exports in January-December 2018, compared to 2017, it increased by 11.7% to USD 149.4 billion. The largest growth was recorded in semi-finished steel products - by USD 1.9 billion, sawn timber - by USD 0.6 billion, pig iron - by USD 0.5 billion, refined copper - by 0.48 USD billion, wood pulp - by USD 0.4 billion, hot-rolled flat steel - by USD 0.38 billion.

In January-December 2018, all groups of countries were characterized by a positive trend in Russian exports. Thus, the volume of deliveries to the countries of the European Union increased by 28.3 percent to 204.9 billion US dollars, including Poland (+42.0%), Germany (+32.5%) and the Netherlands (+22 .1%) - as a result of an increase in the value of exports of petroleum products, crude oil, natural gas and coal.

Exports to APEC countries increased in January-December 2018 compared to 2017 by 34.8%, including to China (+44.1%) due to the growth in supplies of crude oil and refined copper, to the Republic of Korea (+ 44.8%) - oil products and natural gas, to Japan (+19.5%) - natural gas and crude oil.

The growth rate of Russian exports to the CIS countries at the end of 2018 amounted to 13.5% (up to 54.6 billion US dollars). The largest increase in the volume of Russian supplies is typical for exports to Ukraine (+19.9%) - due to the growth in supplies of petroleum products, coal, fuel elements (fuel
for nuclear power plants), to Belarus (+17.2%) - due to an increase in the export of crude oil and petroleum products.

The commodity structure of exports continues to be dominated by fuel and energy products, their share in January-December 2018 increased compared to 2017
by 4.5 percentage points to 63.8%. The value of exports of fuel and energy products increased by 35.2% to $286.7 billion. The positive cost dynamics is due to both an increase in average contract prices (for hard coal - by 14.5%, crude oil - 34.3%, oil products - 32.6%, natural gas in a gaseous state - by 22.5%), and physical volumes of supplies of hard coal - by 10.0%, natural gas - by 3.7%, crude oil - by 2.9%, oil products - by 1.1%.

The basis of Russian exports, in addition to fuel and energy products, is made up of metals and products from them, chemical industry products and rubber, the share of these three groups in January-December 2018 in total accounted for 79.7% of the value of Russian exports. The largest growth (by value) was observed in relation to ammonia (+56.9%), acyclic hydrocarbons (+52.1%), pig iron (+32.2%), semi-finished steel products (+31.9%), mixed fertilizers ( +23.8%), nitrogen fertilizers (+19.2%), refined copper (+13.1%).

The value of the Russian import at the end of 2018 showed a positive trend and amounted to 238.2 billion US dollars, which is 4.7% higher than in 2017. The strongest growth was observed in relation to imports certain types engineering products, in particular, computers and their blocks, electric telephone sets, cars and their parts, aircraft, as well as new tires, certain types of fruit.

Imports of consumer goods in January-December 2018 increased compared to 2017 by $2.4 billion (or +3.9%) to $63.8 billion.
Import sanctioned goodsin January-December 2018 compared to the previous year in value terms decreased by 2.5% to USD 13.7 billion.

At the end of 2018, compared to 2017, Russia's imports from the EU countries increased by 2.7%, APEC - by 5.7%, CIS - by 5.4%.

The main article of Russian imports remain machinery, equipment and vehicles, according to the results of 2018 compared to 2017, the purchases of which increased by 2.0% to 112.6 billion US dollars, the share of this commodity group in the structure of domestic imports amounted to 47.3 percent. Including import of bodies of motor vehicles increased by 33.1%, computers and their blocks - by 16.6%, parts of motor vehicles - by 12.9%, electric telephone and telegraph sets - by 12.4%, cars cars - by 8.4 percent.

The basis of Russian imports, in addition to machinery, equipment and vehicles, are products of the chemical industry and rubber, food products and agricultural raw materials, the share of these three commodity groups in January-December 2018 in the structure of Russian purchases amounted to 78.0 percent.

In value terms, imports of food products increased by 2.4%, chemical products - by 8.1%, including aluminum oxide, aluminum hydroxide - by 44.0%, polyethers and resins - by 23.4%, apples and pears - by 20.6%, sera and vaccines - by 10.6%, new tires - by 10.6%.

Non-CIS countriesare Russia's main trading partners. At the end of 2018, their share in the trade turnover amounted to 88.2%, in exports - 87.8%, in imports - 89.0 percent.

Russia's foreign trade turnover with non-CIS countries in January-December 2018 amounted to 606.6 billion US dollars and increased relative to 2017
by 18.4 percent. Exports grew by 27.5% to 394.7 billion US dollars, imports - by 4.6% to 211.9 billion US dollars.

The leading positions among the EU member states are occupied by Germany, the Netherlands (largely due to large volumes of re-export of Russian hydrocarbons) and Italy, which account for 45.5% of foreign trade turnover with this group of countries.

The most important foreign trade partners among the APEC countries are China, the USA, Japan and the Republic of Korea, which accounted for 84.1% of foreign trade turnover with this group of countries in 2018.

At the end of 2018, China is Russia's largest foreign trade partner (15.7% of Russia's trade turnover or $108.3 billion). Russian exports to China amounted to 56.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 44.1% compared to 2017.

The share of Russia's other largest partners in 2018 was 8.7% for Germany, 6.9% for the Netherlands, 3.9% for Italy, 3.7% for Turkey.

Foreign trade turnover of Russia with CIS countries at the end of 2018, it increased by 10.7% to USD 80.8 billion. Russia's exports to the CIS countries grew by 13.5% to 54.6 billion US dollars, while Russia's imports from the CIS countries - by 5.3% to 26.2 billion US dollars. In 2018, there was a trade surplus with all CIS countries.

Sanctioned goods- goods prohibited for import into the territory of the Russian Federation from the USA, EU, Canada, Australia, Norway, Ukraine, Albania, Montenegro, Iceland and Liechtenstein in accordance with the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated 07.08.2014 No. 778.

Foreign trade turnover is the value that is total amount indicators of imports and exports of a particular state or group of countries.

Foreign trade and stages of its development

Foreign trade originated quite a long time ago, even at the moment when natural production. Neighboring countries and territories exchanged goods that they needed. Later, mankind "invented", the functions of which were initially performed by various "tradable" goods: salt, fabrics, spices, skins, and the like. Money has become a convenient intermediary in the exchange of goods for the organization of foreign trade.

In pre-capitalist times, foreign trade actively developed and improved. And in the era of capitalism, it acquired qualitatively new organizational forms.

Today, the concept of foreign (international) trade is understood as the whole complex of trade relations between individual countries or regions.