Dollar forecast for the near future. What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions. External factors of influence

This page presents the official dollar exchange rate, which was established by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Also, for your convenience, there are graphs of the exchange rate dynamics according to the Central Bank and changes by date.

The data is updated every minute.

Recall that the US dollar (usd) is accepted in almost all countries.

By subscribing to updates, you can always follow the official dollar exchange rate in the Central Bank online and track monthly adjustments. Information from the Central Bank will be of interest to citizens of various categories: businessmen, investors, business owners.

One of the ways to make money on the difference in the dollar exchange rate is trading on the Forex currency market, which requires training and serious experience, as well as the installation of special software. You can get a significant profit by playing on the difference in the dollar exchange rate only if a rather large amount of money is put into circulation. The risks of such operations are very high, it is worth thinking seriously before diving into the abyss of currency speculation.

Why is it impossible to make payments in dollars in Russia?

There are certain types of settlements that are allowed to be carried out on the territory of Russia in dollars, but for the most part they relate to legal entities.

In order to increase the level of economic development and international prestige, Russia is interested in ensuring the stability of its national currency, so transactions with dollars are limited.

U.S. dollar is the official currency of the United States of America. Bank code - USD. Denoted by the $ sign. 1 dollar equals 100 cents. Denominations of banknotes in circulation: 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 (a relatively rare banknote), 1 dollar, as well as coins of 1 dollar, 50, 25, 10, 5 and 1 cent. In addition, there are banknotes in denominations of 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 100,000, which were previously used for mutual settlements within the Federal Reserve System, but have not been issued since 1945, and since 1969 have been officially withdrawn from circulation, since they were replaced by an electronic payment system. The name of the monetary unit, according to the most common version, comes from the medieval coin thaler, minted in Germany.

Traditionally, the obverse side of the US dollar depicts the presidents and politicians of the United States. On modern banknotes, these are Benjamin Franklin - 100 dollars, Ulysses Grant - 50, Andrew Jackson - 20, Alexander Hamilton - 10, Abraham Lincoln - 5, Thomas Jefferson - 2 and George Washington - 1 dollar. The reverse side depicts historical monuments: 100 dollars - Independence Hall, where the Declaration of Independence was signed, 50 - the Capitol, 20 - the White House, 10 - the US Treasury, 5 - the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. The $1 note has a special design on the back, consisting of a double-sided image of the so-called Great Seal of the United States, used to authenticate government-issued documents and held in Washington.

It is believed that in order to counteract the printing of counterfeit dollars, the design must be changed at least once every 7-10 years. At the same time, absolutely all US banknotes issued since 1861, when money was first issued in paper form, are legal tender in the United States.

For the first time, the decision to issue US dollars was made by Congress in 1786, and in 1792 they became the main settlement currency of the state. Since 1796, the principle of a bimetallic monetary unit has been introduced, that is, both silver and gold coins were minted. At the same time, each time, as a result of a change in the ratio of prices for two precious metals, either one or the other coins disappeared from circulation. Until 1857, foreign money (primarily Spanish pesos and later Mexican dollars) also served as legal tender in the United States.

In 1900, the gold standard was passed. At this point, 1 dollar corresponded to 1.50463 grams of pure gold. In 1933, it was devalued by 41% for the first time as a result of the Great Depression. A troy ounce of gold was worth $35.

At the end of World War II, as a result of the Bretton Woods agreement, the dollar became the only monetary unit that was exchanged for gold, while the rates of other world currencies were tied to the US. At the same time, in the post-war years, the United States became Europe's main creditor. Thus, the US dollar became the world's accounting currency and took its place in the reserves of central banks.

However, by 1960, the chronic deficit of the US budget led to the fact that the amount of dollars owned by creditors around the world exceeded the size of the gold reserve. The crisis of 1969-70 complicated the situation. As a result, in 1971, the exchange of dollars for gold was finally terminated after a corresponding statement by President Richard Nixon.

During the 1970s, the dollar depreciated. The situation was aggravated by the crisis of 1975-76. In 1976, as a result of an international agreement, a new one was created - the Jamaican monetary system, which finally legalized the rejection of the gold backing of currencies.

The strengthening of the dollar in the 1980s put US manufacturers at a disadvantage relative to other countries. As a result, it was decided to devalue the dollar by cutting interest rates. And by 1991, the exchange rate had actually been halved against the Japanese yen, the pound, and the German mark.

In 1992, as a result of the fall of the British pound sterling and the crisis in Europe, the dollar rose by almost 30%, but from April 1993 its quotes began to decline again - until 1998, when there was a significant weakening of the dollar against the Japanese yen - from 136 up to 111 within three days. This was due to the massive repatriation of funds from Japanese investors as a result of the crisis in the markets of developing countries, including the default in Russia.

1999-2001 - a period of new strengthening of the US dollar, which was stopped by the Federal Reserve, which lowered interest rates to 2% in order to stimulate the economy.

The most important event for the dollar was the creation in 1999 of a single European currency, into which the central banks of many creditor countries of the United States transferred part of their reserves.

For the summer of 2011, the US dollar is quoted in the range of 1.40-1.46 dollars per euro, 76-78 Japanese yen per dollar and 1.62-64 dollars per pound.

Despite competition from the euro, today the United States currency occupies a leading position in the reserves of central banks. In addition, it remains the main settlement currency between countries in international trade, and is also the base for settlements through payment systems using plastic cards outside the European Union zone, where the euro prevails.

The US dollar is the main currency of the Forex market. Transactions are carried out through this currency and the main quotes are set.

Experts' opinions regarding the future dollar are diametrically opposed. On the one hand, many believe that the collapse of the dollar financial system is inevitable in the near future due to the huge external debt of the United States, the largest in the world. For the summer of 2011, it exceeds $14.5 trillion.

On the other hand, the stability of the dollar is based on high economic indicators. The US economy ranks first in terms of gross domestic product, outpacing China, which is in second place, by almost two to one. In addition, the high dollar exchange rate is facilitated by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, as well as the faith of investors who keep their assets in US currency and during crises seek to convert them into dollars, finding refuge in US debt instruments from the elements of a market economy.

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine "site"! Today we will try to answer the following questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will the ruble and dollar cost in 2019; when will the crisis in Russia end and so on.

After all, the current economic situation causes unrest among the citizens of Russia with its total instability . The stability of the national currency causes concern, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are confused by the rise in prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and worry about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners Concerned about one issue: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions, even experienced analysts do not dare to make specific forecasts.

Some experts say that our currency will gradually get stronger, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which of them is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + dollar exchange rate forecast for 2019;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

Having read the material to the end , you will find out our vision on the forecast of the ruble and the dollar.

If you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions, which are carried out by Western countries, also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even focusing on the policy of the Central Bank.

The imposition of sanctions against Russia was motivated by political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. The inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to withdraw from unitary Ukraine. Yes, in 2014 a referendum was held which brought together more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and further accession of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities and act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of Crimea themselves wanted secession from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, EU candidate countries, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to global capital. They also affected the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil and aircraft building.

In particular, the restrictions apply to the following Russian oil and gas companies:

• "Rosneft";
• "Transneft";
• Gazpromneft.

The following Russian banks were affected by the sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• Gazprombank;
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

The sanctions did not bypass the industry of the Russian Federation:

• Uralvagonzavod;
• "Oboronprom";
• United Aircraft Corporation.

The sanctions consist in prohibiting residents of the European Union and their companies from trading in securities with a validity period of over 30 days , Russia's assistance in the extraction of petroleum products.

In addition, the Russians are prohibited operations with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also banned the transfer to Russia technology, equipment and intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civil industry.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies that were prohibited from supplying special-purpose goods, services and technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any of the EU countries, not to mention entry into the EU, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide companies subject to sanctions funding for more than 30 days.

Sanctions imposed by the US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to the territory of Russia to support the Russian military forces. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft, which were developed by US forces, as well as which include elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G.

America banned issuing a list of Russian banks loan for more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia from participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relationship among companies, banks and so on.

As you can see, the imposed sanctions are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something for the normal functioning of the country and the stabilization of the economy?

Some experts express their opinion about the actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions, or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support the militias in the Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but the hiding of refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral stance and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. With Russia's retaliatory sanctions, the European Union introduces retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns countries of the Middle East .

Having cooperated, it is possible to issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but they have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia improve your export. Trade in oil products is now at a low level, and all because of prohibitions and sanctions.

Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia eventually achieve a share of the stabilization of the national currency.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of turning Ukraine into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same time, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play its role. It is not worth waiting for such actions from the US government - having caved in under Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is not at the highest level anyway.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2019 📈📉

In recent years, the exchange rate of the national currency of Russia has fallen more than than 20%. The population has never seen such a strong fall of the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will continue to behave. This is especially of concern to people who are going buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people who are worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets at this broker .

The ruble is falling, and it is not known whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in oil and natural gas prices, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the depreciation of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now influence the course through inflation targeting. basis method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and the country's credit policy.

Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. anxious
3. realistic.

1st scenario - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration and economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should acquire its former price value. 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, which will increase the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in autumn 2019.

2nd Scenario - Alarm Scenario

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Oil market collapses only worsen the situation of stabilizing the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average exchange rate of the dollar in relation to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the US dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

Our government's plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not at all include the adoption of measures to stabilize national work. The development of exports is what the state's efforts are aimed at.

Of course, the export of goods will bring additional income to the country, as Russia copes with the production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the crops harvested by Russian farmers and diggers.

Do not wait for the ruble to stabilize its performance. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, we can recall that the percentage of expectation of a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The fall of the economy can not have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage of GDP decline, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as the basis. As well as the conditions for the operation of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and foreign investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the inflow of material resources into the country, which adversely affects the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble will begin to lose its current positions.

Several reasons will contribute to this:

• The first factor is forecasting a decline in the price of oil on the world market. First of all, it concerns natural gas, which by its export brings a large share of the country's income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• The second factor is the country's geopolitics. The recent annexation of Crimea has led to the emergence of economic sanctions by Western states, which also impede the stabilization of the ruble. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large outflow of the country's capital.

Under such events, GDP is expected to decline to a figure that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd Scenario - Realistic Scenario

As shown by the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that the sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible aggravation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only increase.

As for the price of oil, in this scenario it will remain the same price of $40-60 per barrel. The level of GDP will approach zero, and according to some analysts and forecasts of the World Bank, GDP in Russia will even have a negative indicator. The fall GDP will be about 0,7- 1 % .

Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In this situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble in the Forex currency market. Many factors influence the decline and appreciation of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Factors of growth of the ruble

Among the many reasons, one can single out those that have positive impact on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country Politics. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the good of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . The investment of Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies contributes to the stabilization of the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is underdeveloped. Perhaps, in the near future, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while earning income in the form of dividends.
• The cost of oil. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources . Moreover, there is enough oil not only for the needs of the country, but also for exporting it to countries that do not have such a resource. By selling oil, Russia enriches its state budget. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income, respectively.
• The ratio of the population to the national currency. It is not immediately clear what the meaning of these words is, people normally relate to him. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the exchange rate of the ruble. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country's lending policy will become, respectively, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, the inhabitants of the Russian Federation, as residents, and Foreigners, have a great influence on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. A high volume of production will not only meet the needs of the country, but also export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors of the fall of the ruble

In weight with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They depreciate the ruble in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, our government should take serious measures to prevent them.

1. Outflow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our money savings into another currency, we ourselves, without suspecting it, provide stability of a foreign state and its course. This is how capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the positions of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the fall of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring their own low prosperity.
2. Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the leading currency is exactly the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It's impossible to influence it. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a stable position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening the national currency of the country. America is confidently strengthening its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble loses its position. It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent the depreciation in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. Game of the population with exchange rates. The desire to make money on the exchange rate arises among the majority of Russians. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. In this way, people secure their savings through a stable currency. In moments of a strong fall in the ruble exchange rate, huge transfers were made exchange of Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures the fall of the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank Measures. During the fall of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant fall of the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product. Russian production, by and large, stands still, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sale is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. The equipment that has been left since the times of the Soviet Union does not allow working at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to distrust of people in domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, the stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing one or another product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for about the same price category as a domestic manufacturer. The West is known for its advanced technologies production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, giving preference to the goods of another producing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - expert opinion 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said that 2019 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts in this regard.

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Former Minister of Finance of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the country's economy is subject to a huge downturn. This opinion was served by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

modern economist, Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, the recovery of the economy and the achieved level of stability are just a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolay Salabuto . While holding the post of head of Finnam Management, the reason for this situation is associated with the imminent fall in oil prices over the course of several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the mark 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that several factors influenced this:

• restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
• the cost of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export "black gold" on more favorable terms. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby "cutting off the oxygen" for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which is completely dependent on the environment and the economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently, and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development on the part of government agencies.
• US Federal Reserve, whose policy will be associated with some activities.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that the current measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to subject the bank's policy to rethinking.

But this will in no way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of Finnam Management, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors cited above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , the director of ALOR Group of Companies, believes that the factors of the depreciation of the ruble can be conditionally divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses his original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These are external sanctions of other states, and the country's external debt.

It is impossible to predict the behavior of these factors, but the analyst is sure that the price of oil in $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall of the ruble. This price will help reduce 10-15 % from the current value of the ruble.

The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more reassuring. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting point. The analyst says that already in 2019, the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of one of them, it is necessary for oneself to understand the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2019 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is shown as follows: with the growth of the dollar, the price of oil is falling, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2019. The External Economic Bank predicts the cost of 6 $0 per barrel or more . At the same time, the resistance level of this price is at the price of $70, and the support level is $42.

Thanks to the news about the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $69-70. If these levels are broken through, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. When “breaking through” down $58, it goes into the range of $53-58

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of an absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal to $28 per barrel. That is, the cost of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: breaking news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its position against other foreign currencies, such as dollar and Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble lost most of its value.

Some foreign states, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the national currency. The foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and about the national currency rate, in particular.

Fluctuations of the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts about the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2019, and the dollar will cost about 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the cost of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion about the country's economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to introduce measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some states, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2019 the price per US dollar will be 55-58 rubles if the policy of OPEC will contribute to raising quotations per barrel of oil to 75-80 dollars.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows directed to our country will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid depletion of production capacity as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that an industry such as the oil and gas industry will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a result, the inability to work at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect foreign exchange relations, which will not play in favor of our currency.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts for the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2019 the exchange rate of the national currency will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be $70 per barrel.

All world banks agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting the rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to raise the economy as a whole, you will have to stock up patience and baggage of actions, because a quick return to the former situation is not worth waiting for.

7. Frequently asked questions on the exchange rate of the ruble and the dollar 📢

Question number 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2019?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the US currency has been troubling the population for some time now. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government is taking all sorts of actions to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of adviser to the president, proposed his plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the plan is precisely the reduction of the dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by saying that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory strike.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the world financial system. The policy of the state is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the national currency of Russia.

For example, trade in Russia's national resource, as natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to drop in relation to the ruble. If large countries decide to sell US Treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will collapse in an instant.

City Express CEO Alexey Kichatov assesses the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov claims that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expect, since the savings of the population, to a greater extent, are stored in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial the disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, it will take a long time, which will eventually lead to the emergence of two rates of shadow turnover. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to fight the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question number 2. What is the forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week?

In forecasting the course, you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future, they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change and stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, as there are no special reasons for the stabilization of the exchange rate.

We remind you that fresh forecasts and analytics regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.

Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall soon?

The exchange rate of the ruble, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments will be made in Russian capital, assets and economy, the more reliable will be the position of the national currency. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is connected with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected import balance and export . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must have an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, this allows you to enrich the state budget.

Speaking of this balance, it must be remembered that America has the largest public debt . In addition, the US has a large budget deficit, which forms the country's domestic debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as a world currency, should fall.
But questions arise why, in such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why experts' forecasts do not come true from year to year, and why does the dollar remain the most demanded currency in the world? ? What are the consequences of the fall of the dollar?

If the dollar falls anyway, to be replaced by another currency. It is necessary to think about what kind of currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts cite Euro to replace dollar. But do not forget that the EU currency is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first of all Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.

The reason for this stagnation is also America's large debt to these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, more precisely on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were going through a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets were falling in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even in a crisis, when everything was depreciating, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use as a currency basket exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs in order to save the accumulated funds and their possible increase.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the exchange rate of its currency at a high level. If rumors are to be believed, the economic crisis was actually caused by one of the "powerful moves" by America, which was staged to maintain the national course.

In 2008, in order to maintain the economic situation in America, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period it was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, as the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar will not fall.

The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:

1. the sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of the American currency and the rejection of the dollar as a currency;
2. if countries stop trading with the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method by selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then pay off with the same currency with another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country, when trading and buying, uses its own national currency, and not the dollar, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.

Question number 4. Will the dollar rise in 2019?

We have already described in detail the possible forecasts for the dollar. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the decision of the Fed. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed plans to raise interest rates in the near future, which could negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2019: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our visions for the ruble and dollar exchange rate, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.

* Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future

From the latest technical analysis, it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts on your own. No one knows the exact forecasts!!!

If you want to start trading on the Forex market on your own, we recommend using the services this forex broker.

9. Conclusion + related video 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for a speedy stabilization of Russia's national course. You just need to stock up on a certain baggage of patience, the strengthening of the ruble will soon occur.

But despite such bright prospects, it should be understood that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be affected by various actions, and not only internal , but also external political factors taken by the policies of other states.

A very precarious situation, the national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the people of Russia. According to official statistics, in the past two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. Spending was stopped, but if oil prices continue to decline, Russia will face total budget deficit.

After all, the country's income will drop significantly, and to maintain a functioning level of the economy of such a huge state, considerable funds are required. The opinions of experts and leading banks, of course, are promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for an improvement in the level of wages and pensions.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of the economy and the level of the gross domestic product.

But you need to look at the current situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making contributions to national banks.

We hope that you now understand that the answer to the questions - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future?", "What will happen to the ruble?" Everyone is looking for himself, making his own forecasts and relying on his own principles.

If you have questions and suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video

Fresh forecast of the US dollar against the ruble for 2018 - a table with currency forecasts by months. Expert opinion on the prospects for the USD/RUB pair in Russia.

Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast. Will there be growth?

Here's how he assesses the dollar's outlook for autumn and winter 2018 Kira Yukhtenko, editor-in-chief of InvestFuture and stock observer:

Until we see the final version of US sanctions against Russia, it will not be easy for the dollar to firmly gain a foothold below 65 rubles. Too high uncertainty for investors. We do not know whether the sanctions will affect Russian state-owned banks or whether there will be a ban on holding Russian government bonds.

In my opinion, the following scenario is likely: in November, the ruble will face increased volatility. After the elections to the US Congress on November 6 and Trump's meeting with Putin on November 11, the American side will return to the discussion of sanctions. During this period, the dollar can rise above 70 and even above 75 rubles.

In fact, the sanctions may not be as tough as the market fears. And if the price of Brent oil stays at least above $70 per barrel until the end of the year, the ruble will get a chance to strengthen in December.

However, do not lose vigilance: economists are warning of a new global crisis as early as 2019-2020. If the gloomy forecasts come true, the currencies of all developing countries will suffer, including the ruble.

What will happen to the dollar/ruble exchange rate in 2018?

USD/RUB chart (Weekly)

No one can accurately predict the dollar rate - too many factors simultaneously participate in its formation. But, taking into account high foreign policy risks and structural problems in the Russian economy, experts agree that the ruble exchange rate may continue to decline in the fall and winter of 2018.

At the end of 2018, the dollar against the ruble may rise to 73-75 rubles. If you want to buy currency for long-term savings, heed the advice of economists: any depreciation can be used for purchases

Risk factors for the ruble

• The Federal Reserve System (Fed) continues to raise interest rates, which puts long-term pressure on the currencies of all developing countries
• Waiting for the final package of anti-Russian sanctions from the US in November 2018. Additional sanctions from the EU and the UK are also possible.
• Possible decline in oil prices - US insists that Russia and Saudi Arabia "bring down" the price through increased production
• Trade wars around the world - a slowdown in the growth rate of all the world's largest economies is possible

Factors supporting the ruble

• The Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate in September 2018, and also suspended purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance within the budget until the end of the year. This decision allowed the exchange rate to stabilize in September.
• Until the fall, the price of oil continued to rise thanks to the OPEC agreement, as there was a shortage in the market.

Economists believe that the positive factors listed above will limit the potential for ruble weakening in the coming months. Without them, the Russian currency would be threatened with a more rapid fall.

Dollar forecast for 2018 by months. Table

Based on the forecasts of 11 stock analysts, we have compiled average monthly forecasts for the USD/RUB pair. The data in the table are given at the end of the month.

Forecasts for the end of 2018 by months

Dollar Forecast for October 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar/ruble exchange rate for October 2018 is RUB 67.98. October may turn out to be a difficult month for the ruble: we are waiting for the details of US sanctions against Russia and the fight against panic within the country.

Dollar forecast for November 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for November 2018 is 70.39 rubles. Elections to the US Congress will be held on November 6, and after this date, Republicans and Democrats can resume discussions on anti-Russian sanctions.

Dollar Forecast for December 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for December 2018 is 68.25 rubles. The focus of the market is the last meeting of the Fed this year, which will clarify the plans of the central bank for 2019.

The dollar affects the economic situation not only in America and Europe, it is also important for Russian citizens to know the dollar exchange rate forecast for 2019. The pricing policy of enterprises, the cost of trips to foreign resorts, and energy tariffs depend on its growth or fall. People with savings are also worried about the dollar's rise and are considering buying to save money. So what should citizens of the Russian Federation expect in 2019: an increase or decrease in the value of the American currency?

Many factors influence the dollar exchange rate:

• foreign and domestic policy of the Russian Federation;
• sanctions against Russia;
• military operations on the territory of neighboring countries;
• oil price.

The Russian economy is highly dependent on the sale of oil, and the United States is developing new deposits, in connection with this, rate fluctuations can be quite strong. In addition, new, alternative sources of fuel have now been found, which also compete with "black gold".

There may be seasonal fluctuations: New Year holidays, vacation season, tax payment period.

Sanctions against Russia

Due to the imposed restrictions, there was a sharp outflow of capital and a decrease in foreign investment in the country's enterprises. The restrictions affected the banking, oil, aircraft manufacturing and other industries. Large Russian enterprises and several banks fell under the sanctions:

• "Rosneft";
• "Gazpromneft";
• "Sberbank";
• "VTB";
• Oboronprom.

Sanctions and officials have not bypassed. They were banned from entering the EU, as well as the placement of assets in the EU countries. The latest news reports on the aggravation of relations between Russia and the EU, and this leads to tougher sanctions.

Influence of the Central Bank

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation plays an important role in setting the dollar rate. The Central Bank has many financial instruments to influence the value of currencies: monetary interventions, an increase in the money supply, and others. The least radical measure is the reduction or increase of key rates. When key rates rise, the ruble becomes more expensive and stable, and when it decreases, it becomes cheaper. Due to the decrease in the key rate, the rate on consumer loans also decreases, and there is more money in the country.

To date, the key rate of the Central Bank is 7.25%. According to experts, it will decrease, and in 2019 it will reach 6%.

Also, with the help of this tool, the Central Bank restrains inflation rates.

Unpredictable factors

Despite all the modern methods and methods of market analysis, there are circumstances that are extremely difficult to predict. These include:

• natural disasters;
• terrorist attacks;
• man-made accidents;
• change of political power in individual states.

All of them affect currency exchanges and determine what will happen to the dollar in the current time period.

For example, before the presidential elections in the Russian Federation, there is a tendency to reduce the exchange rate, and after the elections - to rise in price.

Forecast for 2019

The beginning of 2018 was marked by a decrease in the value of $. The minimum bet was 55.67 ք. Since April, the dollar began to strengthen and grow in price. Today the price for $1 exceeds 61 ք.

To plan the budget for 2019, experts need to predict the change in the exchange rate. Forecasts for the dollar exchange rate are made in three versions:

• positive;
• neutral;
• negative.

The scenario for the development of events is compiled for 3 years and is based on an analysis of the current state of the financial market, taking into account the influence of various factors.

positive outlook

If the sanctions are lifted, and the price of oil stabilizes and rises to $95 per barrel, then the GDP indicator will increase by 0.3-0.6%. In this scenario, the dollar will collapse and its rate will be 30-40 ք.

The same opinion is shared by the experts of Sberbank of Russia. They predict the price of American money in the region of 59 ք. According to experts from the analytical company Prognozex, the value of the dollar will fall to 56 ք.

Neutral outlook

The Ministry of Economic Development takes a different view. In their opinion, the dollar exchange rate in Russia against the ruble in 2019 will be about 70 ք. The Economic Forecasting Agency (APEKON) assumes that the value of the US currency at the end of the year will be about 62 ք.

This is the most realistic scenario for the development of events. It will be implemented if the world situation and the price of oil do not change.

Negative outlook

The budget also provides for a third option, which involves the collapse of the Russian economy. There are two main reasons for this:

• falling oil prices;
• introduction of new sanctions.

Some stock analysts believe that at the beginning of 2019, $ will cost about 125 ք, and by the end of the year the value will reach up to 500 ք.

Government plans to stabilize the exchange rate

To prevent the most gloomy forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2019 from coming true, the Russian government needs to take measures to stabilize the domestic currency. The following factors contribute to strengthening:

• increase in the cost of oil;
• positive dynamics of GDP;
• reduction of the state budget deficit.

The Russian economy is highly dependent on fluctuations in the oil market, so the increase in oil prices has a positive effect on the domestic currency.

To reduce the state budget deficit, it is necessary to gradually reduce public spending over the next three years. If the government adheres to this decision, the budget deficit will be 3.3% of GDP.

If the sanctions are lifted, the flow of investments into the Russian economy will increase, which will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble.

A negative factor for the country's economy is the lack of competition, which leads to low productivity and hinders the development of foreign markets. To solve this problem, the government needs to stimulate the development of entrepreneurship.

Global trends in the financial sector

The outlook for the dollar directly depends on global financial trends. Its collapse is possible if the major countries of the world abandon the dollar as a world currency and start trading in their national currency. This will lead to the collapse of the entire American economy. Russia tries to adhere to such a policy and sells its goods abroad in Russian rubles.

The gradual development of the Russian economy makes it possible to stabilize and strengthen the cost of the ruble on the world market. It is expected that the Russian Federation will again become an equal partner in the global financial system and will participate in the regulation of cash flows.

Expert opinions

Policymakers and financial analysts are divided on how much the dollar will be worth in 2019. Thus, Minister of Economic Development M. Oreshkin believes that in the next three years the ruble will be at a stable level, without significant fluctuations, and oil will not cost less than $45 per barrel. The specialists of Vnesheconombank adhere to the same opinion.

N. Orlova, Chief Economist of Alfa-Bank, has a different view on the dollar forecast. In her opinion, the US currency will begin to grow and reach the value of 80 ք.

Commodity exchange analysts are considering two scenarios:

1. oil will drop to $40 per barrel, sanctions will tighten - then the price will be around 75 ք.;
2. oil will stabilize at $55, the foreign policy situation will stabilize - the rate will be 63 ք.

Financial expert S. Werner estimates the minimum exchange rate at 62ք.

Estimated exchange rate by month

The independent forecasting bureau PrognozEx calculated the price of $ for 2019 by months (beginning - end of the month):

As can be seen from the table, the scenario is quite optimistic, while its accuracy is about 80%.

Forecast from the "Economic Forecasting Agency" (minimum - maximum):

Where to invest

The situation in the world economy is ambiguous and contradictory. Changes in fluctuations are difficult to predict with 100% probability. Experts' expectations may turn out to be wrong due to various political factors or sudden changes in international relations.

The Russian economy is currently going through difficult times. The negative impact of external factors may provoke a new round of the crisis and accelerate the rate of inflation, which will inevitably lead to the devaluation of the national currency.

To save personal money, as well as savings from inflation, it is best to divide the entire amount into three equal parts and invest in several different currencies.

Whatever the exchange rate, the funds will be protected, besides, the capitalization of the deposit allows you to compensate for the level of inflation, and bank deposit insurance guarantees a return of finances, even in the event of a bank failure.