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Good afternoon, dear visitors and readers of our site. Today we will consider the dollar forecast for the week of June 06/12/2017-06/16/2017. We will consider the forecast in the context of the USD-RUB currency pair.
Fundamental analysis
So, many experts are sure that there is practically no potential for the ruble to strengthen against the dollar. The fact is that the cost of oil is declining, which puts significant pressure on the national currency of the Russian Federation.
Nevertheless, the ruble continues to actively hold its current position, even despite the decline in the cost of black gold. Soon there will be a Fed meeting in the US, and many experts are inclined to believe that rates will be raised. In turn, if at a meeting TSB RF key rates will be lowered, then by July it will be possible to expect a significant decrease in the value of the ruble against the dollar.
Technical analysis
Now let's look at what levels you should pay attention to in order to be able to open a good position.
The figure above shows the situation for the USD RUB currency pair from the H4 interval. We see that the price managed to consolidate above the marked gray . For several days there was a struggle on it, but this level withstood. In view of this, I consider it appropriate to open a buy trade with the immediate target to the red level. However, if the gray level does not resist and the price breaks through it and fixes below it, then in this case it will be possible to freely consider selling with a target to the nearest green level. As for the trend, at the moment we are developing for the currency pair.
Total
If you believe the opinion of experts, few people now remain confident that the ruble will continue to strengthen further. Still, the vast majority of experts believe that in the near future the dollar will strengthen against the ruble. We just have to follow the situation, at the same time, wait for the best signals and watch how the price will behave at the levels.
It is also worth noting that interest in the domestic debt market is gradually declining, despite the continuing trend towards a decrease in inflationary pressure, which may be a leading signal of a gradual curtailment of large-scale trading on interest rate differences. The key rate of the Bank of Russia - forecasts At the meeting in April, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, unexpectedly for many, lowered the key rate quite sharply - from 9.75 to 9.25% per annum. Most experts predicted a more gradual rate cut by the regulator. The Bank of Russia statement also notes that inflation has already approached the target level of 4%, and inflation expectations are steadily declining. In the future, the Central Bank plans to closely monitor the dynamics of oil prices and "development of the economy relative to the forecast." Experts predict a rate cut by another 25 bp. meeting on June 16, 2017.
US dollar exchange rate in June 2017
All together makes Bloomberg's forecasts disappointing and, according to reputable traders, the process has already begun - the latest news reports that tax revenue in March 2017 decreased by 2.8% compared to March 2015.
Attention
Table of changes in the dollar exchange rate since the beginning of the year Date Rate Change May 3 56.9518 +0.9912 April 1 55.9606 -2.0021 March 1 57.9627 -2.1224 February 1 60.0851 +0.189 January 10 59.8961 Latest news: what will happen to the ruble and where to keep your savings<этот сохранится, то курс немного ослабнет».
The ex-minister, making a forecast for the weakening of the ruble, advises keeping savings in several instruments: government bonds, rubles, dollars and euros.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for the month and 2018, 2019-2021
Info
The dollar forecast for June this year is rather unusual.
Experts share opposing opinions and cannot come to a unified forecast.
Thus, an impressive number of analysts predict that the dollar will decline, and quite significantly.
It is assumed that the dollar will begin to fall as early as the beginning of summer, and the ruble will strengthen, but not for a long time.
According to forecasts:
- the dollar exchange rate in the summer will drop to 50 rubles per unit;
- in June, the US currency will fall, which in a few weeks will lead to 48-49 rubles per dollar.
By the way, the Central Bank is of the same opinion.
According to official statements, at the end of this summer, Sberbank expects the dollar to fall to 48 rubles. The same forecast was published by Alfabank. However, for Russia, such a ruble exchange rate is not the best.
Dollar forecast for June 2017. expert opinion
Now the oil quotes, first of all, will be influenced by news from the US. According to some experts, the car season in June may stop the decline in oil prices. In addition, follow the weekly statistics on US oil reserves and the number of active oil rigs.
The trends of recent months confirm the fears about the growth in the production of "black gold" in the United States.
Zenit Bank analyst Vladimir Evstigneev notes that the Russian ruble reacted poorly to the decline in oil prices after the results of the meeting in the OPEC + format.
Apart from oil, the ruble has no reason to fall now, but if the volatility of commodity markets increases, then the Russian currency will not have a chance to maintain current levels of exchange rates.
The dollar and euro exchange rate in June 2017 of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation by day: table and graph
The statement that the oil countries will continue to comply with the previously concluded agreement did not become an impetus for the growth of oil, which means that the dollar has every chance to grow.
Most American experts are sure that the growth of the national currency is inevitable.
If Ukraine does not end, and oil does not rise in price, we will be able to observe the strengthening of the dollar very soon.
While this information exists at the level of rumors. Summing up, we can say that the dollar forecast for June 2017 is characterized by a certain stability. In June, the dollar will not jump up and down, as it was at the beginning of the year, but one should not expect much growth from the currency.
Dollar forecast for June 2017
Anastasia Ignatenko, a leading analyst of the TeleTrade group of companies, believes that only the overcoming of the psychological mark of $51-51.50 per barrel of Brent oil can help the growth of the dollar. At the same time, she notes that the positions of the American currency look rather weak and even oil, which is on the border of a growing trend, is unable to help it: “the USD/RUB pair closed April in positive territory, but there has not yet been a reversal.”
Bloomberg also believes that all the signs of the financial storm that is coming to America are on the face: a 9.8% decline in corporate profits in the first quarter of the year, failed investments - all this will eventually lead to a classic crisis.
The most recent dollar exchange rate forecast for June 2017
Analysts assume that GDP growth will continue in the future, which indicates that the negative effects of the recession have been successfully overcome. However, external factors can again undermine the country's economy. Read also the latest dollar exchange rate forecast for July 2017. The IMF staff identified several factors that could weaken the current situation:
- Reducing the cost of energy resources.
- The geopolitical situation, including the further fate of the sanctions.
- Deterioration in the global economy.
Improvements in the economy lead to the strengthening of the Russian ruble, which continues to strengthen against all world currencies. The exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar also fell as a result of an improvement in the trade balance. The period from the beginning of January to March is favorable for the national currency, as the number of export operations increases during this period.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2018 in Russia, analytics
Former Russian finance minister, now head of the Center for Strategic Research Alexei Kudrin, believes that the dollar will cost 60 rubles. He connects such a disappointing forecast for the dollar exchange rate for June 2017 with oil prices, or rather, with volatility, which affects the low exchange rate of the Russian national currency.
Dollar exchange rate: experts' forecasts I agree with the forecast of the ex-head of the Ministry of Finance and the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin - earlier he announced the expected decline of the ruble in 2-3 quarters of this year, the causes of which will be seasonal factors.
The department prepared a forecast of analysts, according to which the dollar exchange rate in Russia will reach the level of 68 rubles at the end of 2017 and 70.8 rubles at the end of 2018.
US dollar exchange rate history (June 2017)
July 1993 June 1993 May 1993 April 1993 March 1993 February 1993 January 1993 December 1992 November 1992 October 1992 September 1992 August 1992 July 1992<< Дата Курс 30.06.2017 59.085500 29.06.2017 59.541500 28.06.2017 58.884300 27.06.2017 59.001400 26.06.2017 59.656400 25.06.2017 59.656400 24.06.2017 59.656400 23.06.2017 60.148200 22.06.2017 60.000000 21.06.2017 58.578600 20.06.2017 57.958500 19.06.2017 57.740800 18.06.2017 57.740800 17.06.2017 57.740800 16.06.2017 57.443700 15.06.2017 57.030300 14.06.2017 56.909600 13.06.2017 57.002000 12.06.2017 57.002000 11.06.2017 57.002000 10.06.2017 57.002000 09.06.2017 56.985700 08.06.2017 56.587800 07.06.2017 56.674700 06.06.2017 56.615200 05.06.2017 56.687600 04.06.2017 56.687600 03.06.2017 56.687600 02.06.2017 56.537300 01.06.2017 56.687600 Вы также может рассчитать сегодняшний курс Доллар США история курса валюты на нашем валютном калькуляторе.
External factors are still not in favor of the Russian currency. Oil prices are slowly but steadily going down. And at the beginning of the week, Brent North Sea oil quotes were already falling to $47 per barrel. At the same time, the increase in the key rate in the US (by the expected 25 bp) strengthened the position of the US currency. This will be facilitated by the reduction of the key rate of the Bank of Russia at the end of the week. Nevertheless, the Russian currency is showing stability so far, which is largely supported by carry-trade operations.
Natalya Vashchelyuk, chief analyst at Binbank:
The fall of the dollar against most currencies intensified, and attention to the US Federal Reserve meeting increased after the publication of data on inflation and retail sales dynamics in the US, which turned out to be worse than analysts' forecasts for the second month in a row. Nevertheless, the dynamics of inflation is still in line with the March estimates of the Fed members, so a radical revision of forecasts and expectations for the interest rate path in 2017 should not be expected. A minor correction in the financial markets, in particular, the recovery of the dollar's positions seems more likely.
Viktor Veselov, chief analyst at Globex Bank:
The ruble will continue to weaken against the dollar amid falling oil prices, as well as the actions of the US and Russian regulators. Data from the US Department of Energy showed a decrease in crude oil inventories, but production remains at high levels. Quotes of black gold fell to $47 per barrel, and the ruble reacted negatively to this. After the expected rate hike by the US Federal Reserve by 25 bp. p., to 1.25%, at the end of the week, investors are waiting for the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank (by the same 25 bp). And such actions of regulators should theoretically strengthen the dollar.
Mikhail Poddubsky, Leading Analyst at Promsvyazbank:
The Fed raises the rate by 25 bp. p. is largely already taken into account in current prices, and the rhetoric of the head of the regulator and updated FOMC forecasts for further rate dynamics will have a much greater impact on the markets. The CBR on Friday, in our opinion, is highly likely to cut the rate (our base case assumes a rate cut of 50 bp, but we assume a rate cut of only 25 bp), but the experience of past meetings shows a limited effect the results of the meeting of the Central Bank on the exchange rate of the ruble.
Anastasia Sosnova, Leading Analyst at Russian Capital Bank:
Since the beginning of the week, oil quotes have stabilized near $48 per barrel, but at the same time, the target of $45 per barrel remains relevant from the point of view of technical analysis. The dollar exchange rate on the Russian market since the beginning of the week has steadfastly kept around 57 rubles / $, however, we do not exclude a new round of its growth if oil quotes fall below $47 per barrel. As for the pivotal meeting of the Bank of Russia on June 16, the impact of the decisions of the Russian regulator on the dynamics of the ruble will be minimal.
Anna Bogdyukevich, analyst at Unicredit Bank:
The ruble continues to demonstrate stability: the dollar exchange rate has been in a narrow range of 56.8–57.2 rubles/$ since the beginning of the week. It is worth noting, however, that fluctuations in oil prices are also small, but given the previous discrepancy in the dynamics of the commodity and foreign exchange markets, the ruble price of a barrel of oil has dropped to 2,750 rubles, exacerbating the risks in terms of budget execution. Nevertheless, capital flows are likely to continue to play a determining role in shaping the exchange rate in the near future. At the same time, narrowing of the interest rate differential is almost inevitable. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bp. p., and the decision of the Russian Central Bank on Friday will focus on the scale of the key rate cut (25 or 50 bp).
Analysts' forecast for the dollar exchange rate on 06/16/2017
The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts' forecasts
Dollar exchange rate: expert forecasts
I agree with the forecast of the ex-head of the Ministry of Finance and the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin - earlier he announced the expected decline of the ruble in the 2-3 quarters of this year, the causes of which will be seasonal factors. The department prepared a forecast of analysts, according to which the dollar exchange rate in Russia will reach the level of 68 rubles at the end of 2017 and 70.8 rubles at the end of 2018.
Anastasia Ignatenko, a leading analyst of the TeleTrade group of companies, believes that only the overcoming of the psychological mark of $51-51.50 per barrel of Brent oil can help the growth of the dollar. At the same time, she notes that the positions of the American currency look rather weak and even oil, which is on the border of a growing trend, is unable to help it: “ pairUSD/ RUBclosed April in the black, but there has not yet been a reversal».
Bloomberg also believes that all the signs of the financial storm that is coming to America are on the face: a 9.8% decline in corporate profits in the first quarter of the year, failed investments - all this will eventually lead to a classic crisis. All together makes Bloomberg's forecasts disappointing and, according to reputable traders, the process has already begun - the latest news reports that tax revenue in March 2017 decreased by 2.8% compared to March 2015.
Table of changes in the dollar exchange rate since the beginning of the year
The dollar exchange rate forecast for June 2017 assumes a change in the status quo in the foreign exchange market. Excessive strengthening of the domestic currency has a negative impact on the development of the economy and jeopardizes the way out of the recession.
In addition, the budget is deprived of revenues from energy exports.
The end of the crisis
The Russian economy is recovering positive dynamics, IMF representatives believe. The fund's experts forecast GDP growth of 1.4% this year, which indicates that the negative consequences of the recession have been overcome. However, the deterioration of external factors may provoke another shock for the Russian economy.
The IMF notes the following risks that could lead to a worsening of the economic situation:
falling energy prices;
global economic slowdown;
geopolitical factors, including the further fate of the sanctions.
Economic recovery contributes to the strengthening of the ruble, which continues to regain lost ground. In addition, the depreciation of the dollar in the first quarter is associated with an improvement in the trade balance, emphasize the Central Bank. January-March is a traditionally strong period for the Russian currency, which is associated with an increase in export operations.
According to the Central Bank, the balance sheet surplus in the first quarter reached $22.8 billion, including additional receipts provided by credit institutions, which stepped up foreign exchange transactions.
Another factor that contributed to the strengthening of the ruble is the influx of speculative capital. The high discount rate of the Central Bank attracted speculators who received significant income.
Currency market trends threaten the recovery of the domestic economy, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. In June 2017, the appreciation of the dollar will resume, which is recorded in the forecast of the head of the department.
Dollar bet
The strengthening of the ruble has a negative impact on the development of the economy, the Ministry of Economic Development is sure. The cost of the dollar at the level of 60 rubles. does not correspond to the fundamental factors and trends of the oil market. The head of the department, Maxim Oreshkin, predicts an early rise in the dollar.
Oreshkin believes that the trend reversal in the foreign exchange market will occur at the end of the second quarter. The deterioration of the trade balance in this period will lead to the correction of currency quotes.
The baseline forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development assumes the weakening of the ruble in the short term to 62-63 rubles / dollar. At the same time, officials do not rule out a new decline in oil prices, which will create additional pressure on the position of the ruble.
The Central Bank allows falling prices for "black gold" to 40 dollars per barrel. The oil market is still far from being balanced, which increases the level of uncertainty. In addition, the limitation of oil production, which ensured the growth of quotations to $50/bbl, may be terminated in June.
The decline in oil prices will lead to a weakening of the ruble to 65-70 rubles / dollar, analysts say. For the Russian currency to remain stable in the medium term, the government will have to launch a series of reforms.
Waiting for reforms
Reducing dependence on fluctuations in the oil market depends on the readiness of officials to reform the domestic economy. In particular, the authorities will have to change the current budget rule, which leads to the actual dispersion of resources.
Previously, most of the export earnings were used to finance current expenditures, including the fulfillment of social obligations. At the same time, the economy was deprived of the necessary investments, which restrained the pace of economic growth. Under the new conditions, it is necessary to concentrate resources for the development of the most priority projects, which will form an additional impetus for the development of the domestic economy.
Another global task of the authorities is tax reform, which will stimulate the development of entrepreneurship. Officials continue to discuss the parameters of future changes, but the final version of the reform has not yet been prepared. The introduction of innovations is expected in 2018.
In addition, the government needs to focus its efforts on improving the investment climate and improving the efficiency of public administration. Otherwise, the Russian economy will face a long period of stagnation.
The strengthening of the ruble in the first quarter is associated with an improvement in the trade balance and the recovery of the Russian economy. However, the excessive strengthening of the ruble becomes a problem for economic development, which forces officials to take appropriate action.
In June, the dollar exchange rate will reach 62-63 rubles/dollar, which is reflected in the basic forecast. A new decline in oil prices will provoke a weakening of the ruble to 65-70 rubles / dollar, experts warn.
