2 planning, programming and forecasting the development of education. Programming the development of institutions of additional education for children. Need help studying a topic?

The emergence of a new economic mechanism in education and the strengthening of economic methods of managing educational institutions imply fundamental changes in sectoral economic planning.

Planning and Forecasting

Planning is the process of forming goals and certain activities, means and methods for achieving them.

The result of planning is a plan, a motivated model of action, which is the final stage of forecasting.

Forecasts usually precede the drawing up of a plan and arm it with scientific recommendations.

By their nature, there are two types of planning:

- imperative (imperative), which is more familiar to us under the name “directive”;

- and indicative (desirable), which is of an information-oriented nature.

Therefore the industry Education, like other sectors of the national economy, is moving from directive planning to development programming.

When planning the development of education, it is necessary to take into account its specifics.

Firstly, the close relationship between pedagogical and economic processes leaves a serious imprint on the nature of planning.

Other The peculiarity of the functioning of education is due to the fact that the object of its reproduction and planning is living people with their individual needs and abilities, which gives planning a character of greater uncertainty than in the branches of material production.

Thirdly, the education system must not only respond sensitively to the demands of scientific and technological progress, but also prepare qualified personnel proactively.

School curricula

Why are the curriculum so interesting to us?? How do they relate to the management of economic activity?

But the fact is that the number of hours provided for in the curriculum for the study of various school disciplines is one of the factors influencing the amount of work of the school team.

When preparing operational and long-term plans for educational institutions, other socio-economic standards play an important role:

Volume of teaching load of the teacher;

Minimum wage for public sector workers;

Expenses per student (pupil).

These and other standards, which will be discussed below, are calculated values that determine various aspects of the necessary provision of educational institutions with financial and material resources.

School population planning

The determining factor in the volume of educational and planned work is number of students. The number of classes and groups of students, the need for the number and composition of teachers, the amount of budget funding for schools, etc. depend on it.

The number of students and the number of classes in schools is determined by class groups: I – IV, V – IX, X – XI. This information is provided for two dates (January 1 and September 1) of the planned year. The average annual number of classes is also calculated.

Determining the number of classes in secondary schools is carried out using two methods: the moving method and the specified filling method.

Moving– this is the transfer of students to the next grade: 1st to 2nd, 2nd to 3rd, 5th to 6th grade, etc.

The contingent of 5th grades is planned in a special way. This is due to the existence of two programs according to which the elementary school operates.

Children studying from the age of 6 complete the primary school course in four years and move on to the fifth grade..

Those who start studying at the age of 7, master primary school in three years and are transferred to fifth grade.

When determining the number of 10th grade students It is taken into account that some of the 9th grade graduates will enter vocational schools or get a job.

The basis of the specified occupancy method The average class size in primary, primary and secondary schools is taken for each planned year.

The number of students (T) is divided by the number of students making up the class size norm (N), and the number of classes is determined by the formula:

The average annual number of classes in a school (K avg) is calculated using the following formula:

K av = (K 1 M 1 + K 2 M 2) : 12, where

K 2 - the number of classes at the beginning of the school year;

M 1 – the number of months of operation of the school with the number of classes as of January 1 of the planned year;

M 2 - the number of months of operation of the school with the number of classes at the beginning of the new school year;

12 – number of months in a year

Topic "Financial Mechanism"

Financial and economic mechanism can be defined as a method of management, a set of forms. Methods and tools for economic management.

In my own way composition of the financial and economic mechanism is complex and forms a unity of such interconnected elements (subsystems) as economic, legal and organizational.

As part of it economic subsystem The following forms and tools are meant: planning, forecasting, pricing, finance, wages, cost accounting, etc.

TO legal subsystem include state legislative acts on labor and economic activity, property relations, taxation and other regulations and resolutions of legislative and executive authorities, local governments.

An important role is also organizational subsystem: management structures, management apparatus and control over economic activities in all parts of the country’s economy.

\Historically, two polar types of financial and economic mechanisms have developed: administrative-command and market mechanisms for managing the economy. But neither type nor the other is found in its pure form in any country. Most countries are characterized by a mixed economy with an unequal balance of market and planned forms of economic management.

Financial mechanism – this is a set of conditions, forms and methods for the creation, distribution and use of funds by institutions and educational authorities in order to ensure a favorable situation for the development of the education system.

Financing - this is the provision of the necessary funds for the costs of carrying out certain activities .

In our case, on implementation of the educational process.

Financing requires compliance with two conditions:

● targeted use of funds – spending funds for predetermined purposes;

● irrevocability – funds provided to educational institutions are not directly returned or reimbursed.

Models of budgetary financial education

World practice offers three models of budget financing: estimated financing, normative financing and budget funding based on differential grant support.

Historically, the typical model for our country is budget estimate financing .

Estimated financing– provision of funds from the state or municipal budget to cover the expenses of non-production institutions, which, as a rule, do not have their own income.

Estimated financing is carried out in strict accordance with the intended purpose of expenses and cost standards established by the funding body, taking into account the profile and characteristics of the activities of budgetary institutions.

The need for funds is justified by appropriate calculations for each type of expense.

Budgetary institution estimate– main planning document. determining the volume, purpose and quarterly distribution of budgetary allocations for all expenses of a given institution.

The approved estimate is the basis for spending funds allocated from the budget.

For the practical activities of educational institutions, education legislation provides for a balance, i.e. a document reflecting not only expenses, but also income received. “An educational institution independently carries out financial and economic activities, it has an independent balance sheet and current account.”

January 1, 2009 The structure of personal accounts opened by recipients of budget funds has changed. Financial transactions are all reflected on one personal account, but in different sections that take into account budget revenues, funds from business activities, and additional budget financing from rental payments. Today, for an educational institution, three types of estimates according to the types of sections of the institution’s personal account:

● for a specific educational program;

● to receive and spend funds under the national project “Education”;

● for the construction or reconstruction of facilities, etc.

To develop an estimate, it is necessary to determine the need for funds to carry out expenses for each classification item.

The need for budget financing of the education system is based on three main quantitative parameters:

● number of students (by education level);

● terms and conditions of training and education (by level of education);

● material resources of the educational institution.

Sources for obtaining this data are regulatory documents, statistical observation forms, accounting data

Thus, the standards for the number of students (pupils) in a group or class are indicated in the relevant standard provisions of educational institutions.

State educational standards determine the terms and conditions of education for students at each level of education. Every year, educational authorities collect statistical data on the student population by type and type of educational institutions and levels of education.

Naturally, teaching different numbers of students requires correspondingly different costs, as does teaching the same number of students, but with different periods of study and a different set of disciplines.

The material base of an educational institution is a relatively constant element. To a certain extent, it depends on the student population. The number of teaching areas and equipment in a kindergarten or school must correspond to the number of students and the conditions of their education. At the same time, the building of the educational institution is used equally for educational purposes, regardless of the number of pupils or students.

Technical calculation of the need for budget funds can be carried out in two ways.

First way is based on the fact that the calculation of the need for budgetary funds is carried out directly by the educational institution (Diagram 1). To do this, at the level of a preschool institution, school or other type of institution, it is necessary, using the general scheme for calculating the need for funds, to calculate the total amount of expenses of the institution for the year.

This process is quite labor-intensive, requiring a lot of work in collecting and processing economic information. Summary work often leads to a large number of errors.

Second way assumes that the calculation of the need for funds is carried out by educational authorities at the appropriate level. The condition for carrying out such a calculation is the availability of the necessary statistical information about the network of subordinate educational institutions and the necessary methodological base. All this is available in the required quantities in the educational authorities. May be updated during the preparatory period. This approach is distinguished by great efficiency, the ability to carry out calculations “at any time” when issuing initial financial indicators by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, and a unified approach to the totality of educational institutions.

In this regard, this method is characterized by “averaging”, i.e. less individualization of calculations for each educational institution. In turn, this may also require the introduction of a significant number of amendments.

This method of calculation currently used by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation.

Both ways require a methodological basis for calculating the need for funds either at the level of an individual educational institution. Or at the ministry level.

Thus, the concept of an estimate can be characterized by the following features:

● this is a financial planning document;

● it reflects a set of costs for a certain type of activity, individual production, event;

● it is compiled for a certain time period (year, month, production time, event time, etc.);

● the estimate does not determine the sources of repayment of planned costs.

Regulatory (normative-per capita) financing involves financing the service provided, and not the institution, and the dependence of the volume of allocated budget funds on the number of students in a particular educational institution.

Currently, regulatory financing is considered in our country as one of the main financial mechanisms in the modernization of the education system. Using the budget financing standard allows you to:

● form budget of educational institutions;

● determine objective needs for financial resources and optimize costs;

● ensure transparency during the formation and passage of financial flows.

In the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, the normative form of financing is considered as the basis for the formation of budget costs.

Thus, current legislation establishes

● regulatory approach in the field of financing general education institutions;

● shared method of financing preschool educational institutions (the municipality finances the costs of maintaining property, the subject of the Russian Federation - the costs of implementing general education programs in the form of a subvention).

Regions are faced with the need to adjust standards using a large number of adjustment factors, without which the implementation of a regulatory financing model at the municipal level is extremely difficult.

Municipal order involves holding a competition for the provision of services of a certain type and volume and allocating funds to the winning institution. Fundamental difference This approach is that the task for the supply of social services is placed on a contractual basis, and not compulsorily. The contract is concluded based on the results of the competition, i.e. in conditions of competition for access to budget resources.

Under municipal task the following is understood:

● a comprehensive plan defining the municipality’s obligations to provide the population of a given territory with educational services at the expense of the budget;

● the volume of financial resources allocated for the implementation of guarantees;

● conditions and procedure for the provision of educational services, as well as requirements for the effective operation of an educational institution.

Since the main source of funding for education is the budget (state, regional or municipal), then the financing of education is determined by the following factors:

● the scheme of budgetary financing of education in the Russian Federation;

● distribution of functions between bodies involved in financing education.

Main functions of education financing participants can be described as follows.

The President of the Russian Federation annually addresses the Federal Assembly with a Budget Address, and at the final stage signs the law on the federal budget for the next year, after which it comes into force.

The legislative bodies of power (the Federal Assembly, consisting of two chambers - the Federation Council and the State Duma) annually discuss and adopt the federal budget.

The Government of the Russian Federation, based on the content of the Budget Message of the President of the Russian Federation, instructs the Ministry of Finance to develop a draft budget. At subsequent stages, it reviews the draft federal budget and submits it to the legislative bodies for approval; adopts a resolution on the procedure for executing the federal budget for the corresponding year.

The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation is the central link in budget financing. The tasks and functions of the Ministry are extremely broad, therefore, in terms of budgetary financing of education, they can be divided into three main groups.

Types of state (municipal) institutions

First of all, a new article was introduced into the Federal Law “On Non-Profit Organizations” (as amended in 2010), which established three types of state (municipal) institutions: autonomous, budgetary and state-owned.

From January 1, 2011 all state (municipal) educational institutions were brought into compliance with this typology.

Autonomous institution

This is a non-profit organization created by the Russian Federation, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation or a municipal entity to perform work, provide services in order to exercise the powers of state authorities, local governments in the fields of science, education, healthcare, culture, social protection, employment, physical culture and sports (Article 2 of the Federal Law “On Autonomous Institutions” of 2006).

An autonomous institution is a legal entity and, on its own behalf, can acquire and exercise property and personal rights, bear responsibilities, and be a plaintiff and defendant in court. It has the right to open accounts with credit institutions. The capabilities of an autonomous institution to conduct business and other income-generating activities are limited, as are the capabilities of a budgetary institution. They have the right to carry out other types of activities only insofar as this serves to achieve the goals for which it was created, provided that such types of activities are specified in its charter. The income of an autonomous institution comes at its independent disposal. Every year, an autonomous institution is obliged to publish reports on its activities in the media determined by the founder.

Budgetary institution a new type is recognized as a non-profit organization created by the Russian Federation, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation or a municipal entity to perform work or provide services in order to ensure the implementation of the powers of the relevant state authorities or local governments in the fields of science, education, healthcare, culture, social protection, employment, physical culture and sports, as well as in other areas.

A new type of budgetary institution has more independence compared to an old type of budgetary institution; financial planning of activities is carried out in accordance with the municipal task and the plan of financial and economic activities. It has the right to carry out various types of activities that bring it income, but only insofar as it serves to achieve the statutory goals. The income of a budgetary institution comes at its independent disposal. At the same time, it can open personal accounts only with treasury authorities. Education authorities exercise control over the targeted use of budget funds.

State institution is recognized as a state (municipal) institution that provides state (municipal) services, performs work and (or) performs state (municipal) functions in order to ensure the implementation of the powers of state authorities and local governments, the financial support of which is carried out from the funds of the corresponding budget for based on budget estimates.

The bill defines operating conditions for state-owned institutions that are close to the operating conditions of “old” budget institutions:

Financial support for the activities of institutions is carried out at the expense of the corresponding budget on the basis of estimates;

It may carry out income-generating activities in accordance with its constituent documents, but income from such activities goes to the corresponding budget of the Russian Federation;

A state institution does not have the right to dispose of property without the consent of the owner of this property;

The state institution carries out operations with budgetary funds through personal accounts;

It does not have the right to provide or receive credits (loans), purchase securities, and is not provided with subsidies or budget loans.

FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EDUCATION

(using the example of the Novosibirsk region)

Introduction

Conclusion

Glossary

Literature

Introduction

Russia is a federal state that unites subjects with their own specific level of socio-economic, cultural, and educational potential.

The combination of a unified federal policy aimed at improving the quality of education, focused on the knowledge economy, with regional models for its implementation makes it possible to ensure the integration of the interests of the state and regions.

Throughout the modern world, the importance of education as the most important factor in the formation of a new quality of economy and social life is increasing along with the growing influence of human capital.

The quality of life and educational potential of the population is largely determined by the level of education and culture of the residents, their ideological orientation and spiritual development, and the ability to systematically receive and use the necessary information. These factors influence the degree of inclusion of people living in the region in regional, national and global human processes of progressive development. Education that meets the modern needs of society and the labor market allows each person to develop the ability to quickly adapt to modern socio-economic realities, and this becomes the most important condition for successful and sustainable development. The common values accepted by the majority, culture and moral principles, as well as the intellectual, infrastructural, industrial and information potential created in our region, act as criteria for the quality of life of all residents of the region.

The inherited weak susceptibility of the existing education system to external demands and the deepening shortage of qualified personnel are a consequence of the incompatibility of the existing mechanisms of public administration with the tasks of creating favorable conditions for the development of the education system that meet the needs of the region. The underdevelopment of mechanisms for involving public and professional organizations in resolving pressing issues in the formation and implementation of educational policy is obvious. Conditions have not been created for the development of independent forms of assessing the quality of education, and mechanisms for identifying, supporting and disseminating the best examples of innovative educational activities have not been developed. Understanding this, the pedagogical community realizes that education needs innovative development.

Based on the above, the purpose of this work is to predict the development of the education system using the example of the Novosibirsk region.

Consider the theoretical foundations for forecasting the development of education;

Develop a concept for the development of education;

Analyze and draw conclusions about the feasibility of social forecasting.

The object of the study is education as an integral structure.

The subject of study is forecasting the development of education as an integral system.

The research hypothesis is as follows: The use of forecasting will allow us to determine priorities in the development (formation) of the economics of the education system; management methods in this industry; and the direction of transformations corresponding to the economic, political and social changes occurring in society.

Chapter 1 Forecasting the development of the education system

1.1 Basics of forecasting the development of the education system

The role of education in solving the problems of socio-economic development of Russia is:

creating conditions for increasing individual competitiveness;

development of the innovation sphere;

changing the structure of the economy in favor of knowledge-intensive industries;

formation of labor resources capable of reproducing and developing the material and intellectual potential of the country;

ensuring social and professional mobility;

formation of the personnel elite of society, based on the free development of the individual.

The socio-economic development of the country is influenced primarily by:

development of a modern system of continuous education;

improving the quality of vocational education;

ensuring accessibility to quality general education;

increasing the investment attractiveness of the education sector.

The implementation of these areas of state policy in the field of education will make it possible in 2006 - 2010 to create conditions for increasing the country's competitiveness, which is one of the goals of its socio-economic development, by solving a number of problems hindering the development of education, such as:

inconsistency of current legislation with the goals of intensive development of the education system;

excessive state regulation of financial and economic activities and labor relations in the field of education with a lack of funds, insufficient freedom to use them and with a formal expansion of opportunities to attract resources to the field of education;

lack of requirements for the content and quality of education;

discrepancy between the resource provision of the education sector and the tasks of the country’s socio-economic development.

The organizational basis for the implementation of state policy in the field of education should be the Federal Target Program for the Development of Education for 2006 - 2010 (hereinafter referred to as the Program), ensuring the continuation of the modernization of Russian education. Measures taken in 2001 - 2005 by federal executive authorities, executive authorities of constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments within the framework of the implementation of the Federal Education Development Program, the Concept for the Modernization of Russian Education for the Period until 2010, and other interdepartmental and departmental programs in the field of education, created a basis for the domestic education system to solve the following tasks aimed at strengthening its role in the socio-economic development of the country:

bringing the content of education, teaching technologies and methods for assessing the quality of education in accordance with the requirements of modern society;

development of management mechanisms adequate to the tasks of development of the education system;

creation of economic mechanisms that ensure the investment attractiveness of education.

The solution to these problems is achieved by improving the regulatory legal framework, the necessary personnel, information and material and technical support for the education sector.

Managing education as a dynamic system requires predictive information about the prospects for its development in order to make the necessary management decisions. The quality of human (intellectual) capital and the efficiency of the economy as a whole depend on the quality of forecast estimates and their effective use in the process of managing the education system. Forecasting for educational management purposes, considered as predicting future changes, is the selection of methods and approaches to make the best use of accumulated knowledge about educational development in the short, medium and long term.

In developed countries, forecasting the development of the education system is given great importance. Expenditures on research and development in this direction amount annually to about 2% of all allocations for science in education. The benefits from research and development are more than 50 times greater than the costs associated with its implementation. Particularly important role should be given to forecasting the development of the education system in conditions of economic crisis.

1) systematicity, which requires considering the forecast object and the forecast background as a system of relationships and relationships;

2) optimality, which involves the development of accurate and reliable forecasts at minimal cost;

3) analogy, which involves using knowledge about the development trajectory of similar objects as a source of advanced information about the development of the analyzed object;

4) complexity, providing a comprehensive description of the forecast object;

5) specificity, which presupposes mandatory consideration of distinctive, characteristic features and characteristics inherent only to the analyzed object.

Forecasting the education system should be considered as predicting future changes in its development in the future. The goal of forecasting, which includes a set of methods and approaches, is to make the best use of accumulated knowledge about education to select priority areas for its scientific and innovative development.

Forecasting is a necessary element of state regulation of the education system, the development of long-term strategic plans, national programs and projects. Making strategic decisions without taking into account forecast estimates of the consequences of their implementation deepens crisis phenomena in the economy and social life. In this regard, it should be noted that in Russia and other post-socialist countries, since the 90s of the twentieth century, work on forecasting and strategic planning for the development of education has been practically curtailed, which has led to many mistakes and failures.

State regulation of the education system should be based on a combination of forecasting, strategic and indicative planning, programming, scientific, financial, logistics and personnel support. Each of these elements of a single system performs functions unique to it; they act in a certain sequence.

Forecasting (long-term, medium-term and short-term) determines possible trends in the development of the education system under the influence of external and internal factors, evaluates the trajectories of its dynamics, the paths and consequences of influencing these trajectories, so that the optimal path of development can be chosen in the forecast period.

Strategic planning is focused on implementing the optimal path for the development of the education system based on selected priorities, determined on the basis of forecasting results, achieving set goals to ensure universal access to education, improving its quality and competitiveness in the global market of educational services.

Indicative planning ensures the balanced development of the education economy in the implementation of strategic plans, national and territorial programs and projects based on a system of general development indicators and balances of the most important types of resources.

Programming ensures the implementation of selected priorities based on national and territorial programs and projects, concentration of resources on breakthrough areas of education development.

Scientific support for the development of education should provide answers to the following basic questions: what areas of scientific research and development will be priorities in the next 15-50 years; when and in what areas of knowledge the dominant scientific theories exhaust their potential, new paradigms will be formed; what branches of science will shape the technical and technological appearance of education in the future; what strength should be the scientific and technical potential that ensures: accelerated development of science within the framework of selected priority areas, transition of education to an innovative path of development; what should be the optimal balance between basic research, applied research and development in the field of education; what and when clusters of complex radical innovations are needed to ensure sustainable development of education on an innovative basis; what is the expected effect from obtaining and applying the results of research and (or) scientific and technical activities.

Financial support for the development of the education system in accordance with strategic and indicative plans, national and territorial programs and projects should be carried out on the basis of a combination of budgetary support for science and innovation with a system of tax and customs benefits and other financial and credit regulators, to create the interest of private investors in implementation of selected priorities, programs and projects.

Logistics support involves organizing work on the construction of new and major repairs of existing educational institutions (EIs) and medical and health infrastructure, providing the educational process with educational equipment and educational visual aids, information technology, textbooks, educational furniture, as well as on the basis of specially developed standards taking into account the specifics of the level of education.

Personnel support for the education system should be aimed at organizing professional training and retraining of personnel for educational institutions, including in the system of postgraduate professional education.

1.2 Long-term forecasting

Long-term forecasting should occupy a leading place in the system of state regulation of the education system. This is due to a number of factors.

Firstly, the education system as a macrosystem has inertia in its development. The ongoing changes, shifts in the technological structure of the economy, changes in generations of people and technology, span several decades. Therefore, a sufficient horizon of vision is needed in order to assess the essence and trends of change, and choose the optimal trajectory for the development of the education system. For example, in the 21st century in developed countries, the transition to a post-industrial technological mode of production began, the structure of the economy is being transformed, and noospheric thinking is being implemented. In the context of globalization, these trends have an impact on developing countries and, to a lesser extent, on third world countries. In addition, these objective trends are superimposed on the contradictions of the ongoing socio-economic policies in specific countries. For example, in Russia, reforms carried out in the last two decades have changed the type of demographic development (trends towards depopulation and population aging are developing).

Secondly, hundreds of millions, or even billions, of rubles are invested in large national programs and projects in the field of education, and their implementation is delayed for decades. The correctness of the chosen strategic decision on programs and projects can only be assessed after 5 - 10 years. Strategic decisions made without foreseeing their consequences are costly. This is especially true for education. Examples include decisions on the transition to 12-year education at school, the mass liquidation of small-scale rural schools, the financing of universities on the basis of State Financial Institutions, etc. Therefore, in order to prevent strategic mistakes and failures, it is necessary to make decisions based on forecast assessments of the development of the education sector and its individual sectors.

Thirdly, the need for long-term forecasting especially increases in the context of modernization of the education system, when the chaotic nature and uncertainty of dynamic trajectories sharply increases.

Directions in the methodology for forecasting the dynamics of the education system

Theoretical foundations, practical experience and model apparatus have been accumulated abroad and in Russia for the development of long-term socio-economic and innovative-technological forecasting. However, it is necessary first of all to determine the theoretical foundations, methodology and classes of macromodels on which long-term forecasting of the education system should be based.

Summarizing the accumulated experience, we can distinguish three areas of methodology for predicting the dynamics of the education system.

1. Linear extrapolation methodology is based on identifying development trends over a sufficiently long period and extending them into the future with one or another adjustment based on expert assessments. Such forecast calculations are made on the basis of processing statistical series using correlation methods and modified Cobb-Douglas functions, constructing input-output balances, etc.

This methodology is quite reliable and gives results close to the truth within one phase of a long-term cycle. But it fails when trends change, at bifurcation points, when phases of cycles and, moreover, the cycles themselves change.

2. Foresight methodology, based on collective expert assessment, makes it possible to collect, process and average the opinion of a large group of qualified scientists and specialists about trends and parameters of future development.

However, this methodology suffers from the following disadvantages: subjectivity of experts, a high degree of averageness of expert assessments, large teams of experts are characterized by a certain inertia of thinking and the desire to extend already observed trends into the future. Trajectories that differ from the majority opinion are actually discarded, whereas they may turn out to be the most realistic in certain cases. Also V.I. Vernadsky stated that the history of science at every step shows the correctness of individuals in their statements than entire corporations of scientists or hundreds and thousands of researchers adhering to prevailing views. The truth is often revealed to a greater extent to scientific heretics than to orthodox representatives of scientific thought. Ignoring and not accepting fundamentally new scientific ideas expressed by scientific heretics can lead to the wrong choice of priorities for scientific and technological development, loss of time and resources. In this case, turning points in trajectories and bifurcation points are often left behind, and the cyclical dynamics are reflected to a lesser extent.

3. A methodology based on cyclical genetic patterns of development allows one to take into account the rhythm of cyclical dynamics in the economy, genetic limitations, the limits of changes in the hereditary genotype when changing cycles, and the directions of variability of systems to adapt to changes in the environment.

Therefore, it seems that the third version of the methodology should be chosen as a methodological basis for long-term forecasting of the development of the education sector. However, this choice does not exclude the development of forecasts and model calculations using the first two options of the methodology and comparison of the results obtained.

In the process of developing forecasts for the development of the education system, it is necessary to consider the object of forecasting and the forecast background as a system of relationships and relationships. This requires knowledge of the patterns of development of the forecast background. In this regard, we can highlight the following patterns of development of the forecast background of the education system at the beginning of the 21st century:

― cyclical development of the world and national economy;

― increasing the share of technological methods of production of the V technological order (TU) and laying the foundations of the VI TU;

― accelerated development of the technological breakthrough sector in comparison with the sector of evolutionary improvement;

― increasing the role of science as a factor in improving the quality of education;

― continuous (annual) increase in education costs, the growth rate of education costs exceeding the economic growth rate, an increase in the knowledge intensity of education in developed countries;

― increasing the processes of globalization of education;

― acceleration of the processes of obsolescence and updating of pedagogical technologies;

― an increase from year to year in the gap in the educational level of developed, developing and third world countries.

Forecast development process

The process of developing forecasts for the development of the education system should include the following stages: analytical, research, program and organizational. The analytical stage allows us to identify the state and development trends of the forecast object and compare them with the state and development trends of similar objects abroad. At this stage of developing the forecast, the results of the future development of science and education are determined, necessary and desirable to achieve a certain level of satisfaction of the needs of the individual and specific consumers of educational services (employers). The result of the research stage is the determination of the goals of the future scientific and innovative development of the education system in the form of a scientific and technical problem to be solved during the forecast period. At the program stage, possible ways to achieve the goals of the future development of the education system are determined, options for achieving the necessary and desired results, the time and probability of implementing these options are identified. The organizational stage includes the identification of possible options for the distribution of resources and complexes of organizational and technical measures necessary to achieve the goals of the future development of the education system, as well as the most rational ways to achieve these goals. This stage completes a single cycle of predictive research, the purpose of which is to provide information that contributes to increasing the scientific validity of educational management.

To develop forecasts for the development of the education system, it is necessary to justify and select a small range of general macro indicators for calculations and construction of balances for the main types of resources. The main features of the object of forecasting the education system include the following:

1) difficulties,

2) scale,

3) the degree of its determinism,

4) the nature of development over time,

5) degree of information security,

6) the nature of the object. The object of forecasting in the education system can be: directions of scientific and innovative development; volume and cost structure; number and structure of teaching and scientific-pedagogical personnel; cost and structure of fixed assets; quality and competitiveness of educational services.

It should also be noted that the task of forecasting should consist not only of determining the priorities of scientific and innovative development of the education system, but also of assessing the industry’s capabilities to solve scientific and technical problems within the chosen areas.

Since forecasting is a process of balancing needs and capabilities, the forecaster needs to take into account the patterns of development of the forecast background within a particular national economy. The development of Russian education is taking place against the backdrop of sharp and rather unpredictable changes in macroeconomic indicators. The collapse of the economy inevitably affects the economics of education in terms of reducing the effective demand of the state and the private sector in the market for educational services. This in turn led to a decrease in the financial support of the education system. Reducing the cost of education leads to the degradation and collapse of the educational level of the population, with formal indicators of an increase in the share of people with higher professional education, candidates and doctors of science in the structure of the number of people employed in the economy, since in such conditions there are processes of reduction in the number and aging of scientific and teaching personnel, deterioration material and technical base of science and education, reduction in the effectiveness of scientific activity.

The policy of accelerated denationalization and privatization of public property pursued in recent years is aimed at increasing the role of private business structures and reducing the role of the state in the economic life of the country. In this situation, the development of the education system will largely depend on the innovative activity of the entrepreneurial sector of the sector’s economy. This circumstance urgently requires the development of a forecast of effective demand of business structures in the educational services market in conditions when the state is curtailing education funding. When developing such a forecast, it is necessary to take into account the results of sociological research, from which it follows that the majority of managers of Russian enterprises are indifferent to science and education.

Long-term forecasting of the development of education, taking into account global trends, should be carried out on the basis of partnership between the state, science and education. To justify its strategic and innovative function in the field of education, the state needs a long-term vision of the prospects for Russia’s development against the backdrop of global trends and the country’s inclusion in globalization processes. Therefore, federal and regional government authorities should act as the general customer of such a forecast, finance its development and use the results obtained. Only science can be the developer of long-term forecasts - highly qualified scientists, independent in their judgments and assessments, who have knowledge of the laws of social development and the art of foreseeing the further course of events.

The central link in the general state forecasting of scientific and innovative development of education is the choice of its priority areas. A nationwide approach is necessary here because the principle of self-sufficiency should not be applied in this case at all. In some areas it is significantly limited, and the payback period significantly exceeds the normative ones. If their payback periods go beyond 15-20 years, then the very concept of payback becomes conditional.

Forecasting the development of the education system should cover all main areas of development of science and educational (pedagogical) technologies. The objects of forecasting scientific and innovative development of the education system include: priority areas of scientific and innovative development; scientific and technical potential; technical re-equipment and modernization of the material and technical base of the industry; personnel training; organizational and economic management mechanism; quality and competitiveness of educational services.

The effectiveness of the development of the education system is largely determined not only by the power of the country’s total scientific and educational potential, but also by its optimal distribution between regions and sectors of the national economy. The results of economic and mathematical modeling indicate that the maximum function of the strength of interaction between science and education is achieved under the condition of “equal magnitude” of the powers of the scientific and technical potentials of interacting objects. For example, the strength of scientific and technical interaction between industries with a predominance of products (works, services) III and V TU is practically zero. From the above it follows the need to develop a forecast for the optimal placement of the country’s scientific and educational potential, its concentration on priority areas of educational development.

When developing forecasts for the development of the education system, all necessary information must be collected, and the information material must be replenished and re-evaluated many times. To build a predictive model, statistical data and expert (intuitive) assessments should be used in combination. Since simple extrapolation methods are not applicable to predict most indicators of science and education, the variables included in the model for the most part represent reasonable intuitive estimates and assumptions. Moreover, the degree of uncertainty of information obtained from such estimates and assumptions increases as the forecast horizon, complexity and scale of the scientific and technical problems being solved increase. The likelihood that the predicted events will actually occur depends on the quality of the experts and the scientific validity of their assessments and assumptions.

Chapter 2 Forecasting the development of education using the example of the Novosibirsk region

2.1 Goal setting for forecasting the development of education

The concept of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on spiritual, cultural and social values that have developed over many centuries in continuous human activity in search of the meaning of life in the great megacultural space of Russia and its integral part - Siberia.

The goal of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is to determine the conditions and mechanisms for their achievement, which:

will ensure qualitative changes in education itself, the education system and educational environments of the region to provide opportunities for a person to develop multifacetedly as a spiritual, creative and healthy personality in accordance with the requirements of the modern development of the region;

will create conditions for the interested participation of society in the development of education;

will fully take into account public demand from various groups of the population;

will contribute to the effective, competitive and sustainable socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region;

correspond to the development trends of modern Russia as a leading participant in global relations in the world.

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on the directions for the development of education for 2006-2010 proposed by the Federal Target Program and specially developed principles. It is on the basis of these principles that systemic changes should occur in education in the Novosibirsk region, ensuring its accessibility, quality, continuity and investment attractiveness.

A system of scientific and technical education, a system of knowledge generation, a system of technology generation, a system of technical re-equipment of industry, a system of effective innovation infrastructure - these are the main directions for shaping the future economy of the Novosibirsk region.

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on the following principles:

the principle of advanced development of education;

principle of designing innovative development;

the principle of openness of education and public participation;

the principle of continuity of education;

principle of strategic investment;

the principle of innovativeness of the educational environment.

1. The principle of advanced development of education.

The principle of accelerated development of education is applied as an adequate response to requests determined by the directions of socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region until 2025. This principle means a mobile reorientation of the education system to prepare a person for life in rapidly changing conditions of intensive development of social and economic processes and a new quality of life, ready to quickly offer their participation, responding to the demands of society and the labor market.

2. The principle of designing innovative development of education.

This principle means that the approaches to innovation in education themselves must be innovative for the education system. Traditional industry and program approaches do not have time to respond to rapidly occurring changes in society, the country and the world. Realizing and taking into account current trends in the development of the country and region, it is necessary today to design processes in education that are adequate to these changes.

The principle of designing innovative development of education involves the development and implementation of projects aimed at the future - towards the sustainable long-term development of education.

3. The principle of openness of education and public participation.

The development of education in the Novosibirsk region is not so much a departmental and administrative process as a strategic direction for the development of the entire region, affecting the interests of every person.

Taking this into account, the Concept of Innovative Development of Education is based on the principle of openness of education and public participation. This principle presupposes the achievement of public consent, on the basis of which the government, society, business, public organizations and the professional teaching community assume obligations to jointly promote innovative educational processes in the Novosibirsk region. The achieved public agreement will make it possible to build constructive mutually beneficial relations between all entities, which will ensure the necessary changes in such a complex socio-economic sphere of life in the region as education.

4. The principle of continuous education.

The modern world is characterized by a transition to global processes, in which human knowledge and competencies based on them will play the most important role.

Continuous education of a person throughout his life is a factor in the mobility of society and its readiness for predictable changes. Providing the state and society with opportunities for a person to constantly develop and educate himself, regardless of age, state of health and other factors, contributes to the harmonization of social relations through the fair redistribution of knowledge as a person’s main capital. Possession of knowledge capital allows a person to effectively organize and manage his own life, and ensures the rights of everyone to self-realization.

5. The principle of strategic investment.

In a modern post-industrial information society, a person’s level of education has a direct impact on the quality of the created social product and its competitiveness. The main competitive quality of a person is his knowledge and competencies, social and professional mobility, the ability to initiate or support innovative production and management technologies, progressive processes of social development, and to actively participate in their implementation.

If society wants to develop over the long term, its strategic investments must be directed towards people, and therefore into their education.

6. The principle of innovativeness of the educational environment.

Openness of education is the most important condition for the formation of an educational environment. Being one of the main subjects of the educational environment, educational institutions and organizations become active participants in diverse interactions, which certainly introduces new features into their activities.

2.2 Main directions and tasks of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region

The range of problems standing in the way of the development of education in the Novosibirsk region in accordance with the request of the Russian state is complex in nature, therefore, the tasks set to overcome existing problems can be grouped into complexes, on the basis of which the following directions for the innovative development of education in our region are determined:

development of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region;

ensuring accessibility and quality of education;

development of social and civil forms of management of processes in education in the Novosibirsk region;

introduction of effective economic mechanisms into the education system of the Novosibirsk region and increasing its investment attractiveness.

A unified educational environment, which should be created in the Novosibirsk region, involves focusing on the needs of citizens, public groups, the labor market, the state and ensures the free development of the individual, is aimed at the creative and healthy development of the individual, increasing the competitiveness of a person who has received professional training on the basis of free choice , and the formation of a regional personnel elite capable of reproducing and developing the resource and intellectual potential of the region.

The creation of a unified educational environment is based on the expansion at the level of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation of powers and opportunities, rights and responsibilities of the founders of educational institutions, as well as regional and local communities as consumers of services provided by the education system. The guarantee of the participation of all subjects in the formation of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region is the achievement of general public consent. State and municipal authorities of the Novosibirsk region, state and municipal institutions, political and public organizations, joint-stock companies and individuals, associations of various types, everyone whose activities are actively developing in the region are invited to take part in the social contract.

Objectives of innovative development of education, ensuring the development of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region:

1. implementation of regional educational policy aimed at network interaction of all subjects of the unified educational environment of the Novosibirsk region;

2. creation of mechanisms for the formation, based on the needs of students, of targeted orders from the state, society, corporations and labor market demands, consolidated and supported by means of ordering the education system of the Novosibirsk region and municipal education systems for the training and retraining of professional personnel of various profiles, levels and specialization of education;

3. qualitative change in advanced training and retraining of personnel in the education system based on predictive and advanced planning of courses based on educational programs and disciplines focused on innovative approaches to education;

4. creation of a unified information space of the Novosibirsk region for an objective presentation to the population of all educational opportunities in the region, development of corporate educational culture;

5. initiation of management processes that increase the responsibility of founders for the activities of educational institutions.

2.3 Ensuring accessibility and quality of education

The right to education is a constitutional guarantee for every citizen.

To achieve accessibility and quality of education in the Novosibirsk region during its innovative development, it is necessary to solve the following problems:

1. carry out a continuous educational process at its various levels, ensuring the maintenance of human health and the development of its potential;

2. develop and implement a regional state-public system for assessing the quality of education, the activities of educational institutions and organizations.

3. annually hold regional competitions for the development and implementation of projects in the areas of innovative development of education;

4. introduce models of integrated educational institutions that implement, among other things, adapted educational programs at various levels, providing equal starting opportunities for the education of children, regardless of their social, racial and religious background, psychophysical health, and the level of well-being of their families or guardians;

5. develop a system of continuous professional education focused on the needs of all categories of citizens in building their own educational and professional trajectories.

2.4 Development of social and civil forms of process management in education in the Novosibirsk region

Today, a clear conclusion has been made that the development of education is impossible without its openness to society. Openness lies not so much in the regular publication and public presentation of reports by educational authorities and educational institutions on their activities, but in public participation in educational activities.

Openness will allow the education of the Novosibirsk region to obtain an objective picture of its development, free itself from existing stereotypes, and enter into a constructive public dialogue that develops interactions and ensures mutual enrichment.

The openness of education is ensured by the principle of state and public management laid down in the Federal Law “On Education”. This principle must be implemented in advance of many other processes in education, since the innovative development of education is impossible without broad public support and active public participation in the development of educational policy and the search for effective ways to ensure accessible and high-quality education.

On the path to the development of social and civil forms of education management, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

1. test and begin the implementation of effective models of state and public management that contribute to the development of social and civil forms of management of educational institutions as an important condition for the openness and investment attractiveness of education;

2. to work out the mechanisms for managing educational institutions when changing the organizational and legal forms of their activities in the conditions of increasing economic independence of educational institutions, increasing the transparency of financing, strengthening their responsibility for the effectiveness of the educational process and performance results;

3. carry out project developments in terms of building interaction between vocational education institutions and employers, ensuring the attraction of additional material, intellectual and other resources into the field of education.

2.5 Introduction of effective economic mechanisms into the education system of the Novosibirsk region and increasing its investment attractiveness

The ineffectiveness of spending funds allocated for education is obvious. To a greater extent, this is due to the preservation in education as a sector of financial and economic mechanisms inherited from a costly equalizing economy.

The transition from financing educational institutions to financing consumers of educational services is the basis of the modern budget economics of education. It is also fundamental to create a system of economic motivation for teachers for their professional growth. Particular attention should be paid to stipulating in the contracts of employees of educational management bodies of administrations and administrative employees of educational institutions an assessment of their activities depending on the quality of education in the region, municipality or educational institution.

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is aimed at introducing effective financial and economic mechanisms that ensure the quality of educational processes and the efficiency of spending budget funds, as well as increasing the investment attractiveness of education.

Solving existing problems on the path of economically sustainable development of education in the Novosibirsk region is possible by performing the following tasks:

1. develop, test and implement a regional model of multi-channel financing of educational institutions and organizations of all levels, types and types;

2. develop, test and implement effective technologies for managing the quality of education, ensuring its investment attractiveness;

3. actively use proven and design new mechanisms, including regulatory and legal ones, for the effective use of budget funds;

4. develop and implement a system of economic motivation for the work of education workers, related to their application in their professional practice of the principles of innovative development of education;

5. carry out a long-term economic and program analysis of the possibility of multidisciplinary training of personnel ready to work in the new conditions of the education system of the Novosibirsk region on the basis of higher education institutions.

2.6 Methodology for medium-term forecasting of demand for specialists in the regional education system

Currently, the volumes and list of specialties and professions for which young workers and specialists are trained are often planned on the basis of outdated or insufficiently verified information that does not reflect changes in the labor market and does not take into account the capacity of the labor market. As a result, some graduates risk obtaining specialties that are no longer in demand on the labor market (for example, there are known imbalances in training in the specialties “lawyer”, “economist”, “accountant”). On the other hand, there is a growing imbalance of supply and demand in the labor market, associated with the ratio of levels of professional education. Thus, it should be noted that there is a double structural imbalance in the demand and supply of jobs in the regional labor market: by level of education (primary, secondary, higher vocational education) and in terms of professional qualifications.

Forecasting the needs of the labor market in these conditions is considered as an important component of the marketing information necessary for the development of measures to regulate and control changes in the educational services market, for strategic planning of a demand-oriented system of training and retraining.

Drawing up long-term balances of labor supply and demand is the main component of the mechanism for managing the human resources potential of the region, an important component of an effective model of organizational and economic interaction between regional vocational education systems and labor markets. But, as a rule, forecasts and economic development programs prepared in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are based on information received from state statistics bodies and reflecting the employment structure only in a sectoral context. Currently available statistical data do not allow us to assess the dynamics of employment in the context of the professional and qualification structure of jobs in the regional economy. This information is clearly insufficient for planning a personnel training system. The sectoral structure of employment does not provide any idea of the professional qualifications of workers (in agriculture, these can be livestock breeders and winegrowers), or the required level of education (in livestock farming, these can be veterinarians and milkmaids). On the other hand, a worker’s professional qualifications are not necessarily strictly tied to a particular sector of the economy: for example, the profession of a driver is universal and is present in the statistics of every sector of the economy.

The development of the methodology was based on the following basic ideas:

1. Since forecasting the personnel needs of the region is the main link in the holistic mechanism of interaction between regional labor markets and vocational education, and the target for developing the forecast is its use for the formation of an annual regional order for personnel training in the system of primary, secondary and higher vocational education, the market analysis methodology labor suggests that forecasting the professional and personnel needs of the economy should be built not in the context of industry, but in the context of professions and specialties.

2. As the analysis of existing approaches to the development of medium-term personnel forecasts has shown, none of the methods used can be considered satisfactory from the point of view of achieving the forecasting goals. A complementary approach is needed, including various methods of research and forecasting of the labor market.

3. It is advisable to use as additional research methods:

secondary analysis of statistical data and identification of trends in employment;

analysis of programs and projects for the socio-economic development of the region;

analysis of plans and investment programs in the real sector of the regional economy;

analysis of demographic statistics.

The need to use additional methods is due, as the experience of testing the methodology shows, to a certain background of subjectivity in employers’ assessments of the prospects for the development of their enterprise.

4. The main method of collecting information should be a direct survey of employers in the region, since the structures of current and future employment, even at homogeneous enterprises, have significant differences. With this approach, it is possible to partially neutralize the factor of interchangeability of specialists, since the immediate managers of enterprises (HR services) are quite well aware of the specific specifics of the employment structure. This is the difference between the proposed methodology and the methodology developed, for example, by the National Board of Education of Finland.

5. It is fundamentally important for the formation of a regional order for vocational education to forecast the total personnel needs for skilled workers, specialists with secondary and higher vocational education, i.e. all levels of professional training.

2.7 Updated main forecast indicators of socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region in 2009

The high rates of economic development of the region in 2008 were realized against the background of the ongoing economic recovery in the Russian Federation. However, in the second half of the year, the impact of the global financial crisis began to manifest itself, especially in the banking sector and a number of industries that are highly dependent on borrowed funds.

Negative manifestations in the global and Russian economy during 2009 and to a certain extent in the subsequent period will be a serious factor determining the pace of socio-economic development of the region.

In these conditions, the rate of economic growth will be affected by the existing shortcomings of a systemic nature - the low level of competitiveness of enterprises due to low labor productivity, unreasonably high energy consumption and resource intensity, aging of fixed assets and technological backwardness, lack of prospects and insufficiently high quality consumer properties of the products of a number of enterprises.

Problems hampering the development of consumer and investment demand, as well as the high level of competition for financial investment resources, will become more severe due to their increasing shortage.

At the same time, the high level of diversification of the economy of the Novosibirsk region and the low share of the raw materials sector in its structure are an advantage that provides additional opportunities to stabilize the situation and ensure progressive development in the planned period.

An important advantage of the region is the high level of concentration of science and professional education, which, in the presence of an effective innovation system, increased motivation of the production sector to update technologies and develop new products, can become an effective source of development of the high-tech sector of the economy.

The emergence in recent years of large retail trade networks and the development of wholesale companies increases the demand for logistics services, which, together with the strengthened role of the Novosibirsk region as the largest interregional and international transport hub in the eastern part of Russia, is an important condition for continuing the investment process in creating a system of modern transport and logistics complexes .

The developed financial infrastructure of the Novosibirsk region, including the leading banking sector in the region, the largest regional exchange platforms: stock, currency and commodity, create conditions for the concentration of financial resources, technologies and specialists in the field of finance.

The stability of the functioning of the economy and social sphere of the region in the conditions of negative manifestations of the crisis will be ensured by a relatively high share of the budget sector in comparison with other constituent entities of Russia. In the structure of those employed in the regional economy, those employed in the public sector account for about 25%. This area in 2009 will be least susceptible to crisis phenomena, will ensure stable employment, increased wages for those employed in it, as well as stable effective demand in the market for consumer goods and services (Table 1).

Even in the presence of a number of factors that ensure relative stability of the economy and social sphere in the planning period, difficult economic conditions place special demands on the effectiveness of management actions, the elaboration and formation of multivariate management decisions, and the involvement of expert specialists and participants in the transformation process in the development of such decisions.

In these conditions, the task is - first of all, not to lose the priority of strategic development goals, to mobilize the efforts of all branches of government to implement strategic development priorities, to ensure the subordination of operational management activities to solving strategic problems.

In the planning period, the concentration of efforts of executive bodies of state power and budgetary funds will be focused on the development of science and education, the development of markets and maintaining the effective demand of the population, investment processes, technical and technological renewal of production and the creation of new knowledge-intensive enterprises, the development of housing construction, support and development of small and medium-sized businesses, optimization and increasing the efficiency of social services.

Table 1 - Stability of functioning of the economy and social sphere of the Novosibirsk region

Name of indicators	Unit of measurement	2008 estimate	2009 forecast
Gross regional product	billion rubles
Gross regional product index	in% to previous year
Gross regional product per capita	thousand rubles
Industrial production index	in% to previous year
Gross agricultural output index	in% to previous year
Index of the volume of work performed by type of activity "construction"	in% to previous year
Freight turnover of transport organizations	in% to previous year
Passenger turnover of transport organizations	in% to previous year
Retail trade turnover index	in% to previous year
Index of the volume of paid services to the population	in% to previous year
Volume of investments in fixed capital	billion rubles
Fixed capital investment volume index	in% to previous year
Volume of investments in fixed assets per capita	thousand rubles
Resident population (annual average)	thousand people
Total fertility rate	people per 1000 population
Natural increase rate	people per 1000 population
Migration growth rate	people per 1000 population
Number of labor resources	thousand people
Average annual consumer price index	in% to previous year
Maximum increase in tariffs for housing and communal services for the population	in% to previous year
Employees' wage fund	billion rubles
Real disposable income of the population	in% to previous year
The cost of living

Noting that the actual growth rates of most indicators of the socio-economic development of the region are ahead of the forecast ones, the Governor of the region emphasized the following: “We are relying on the development of the scientific and educational complex and an innovative economy aimed at producing a unique product. I am convinced that the economic effect from this will be much higher than in regions relying on traditional sectors of the economy. This effect should lead to a significant increase in household incomes and other indicators of quality of life. For example, within a three-year period we are ready to reach the normal housing affordability regime that exists in developed countries, when household incomes rise. on the one hand, and management decisions in the field of housing lending, on the other, can make housing truly affordable for the vast majority of the economically active population."

2.8 Method, mechanisms and risks of innovative development of education

The method and mechanisms for its implementation involved in the framework of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region are aimed at:

to a transition from understanding education as a sphere of consumption, i.e. transfer and acquisition of knowledge, to the sphere of creation - personal and corporate development and competent application of knowledge;

to change the dominant attitude towards education as a costly sector of the economy towards the understanding that education is a strategic resource for economic development.

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on the design and software method.

The project-program method activates intersectoral relations, affecting many regional and municipal organizations and institutions. This will make it possible to pursue a unified regional policy in the field of education, solve the problem of imbalances in the development of municipal education systems and create a unified educational environment and a unified information space in the Novosibirsk region.

The use of the design and software method will allow us to assess the readiness of the education system of the Novosibirsk region for innovative development (Table 2).

Table 2 - Development of a network of general educational institutions in the region: providing conditions for obtaining high-quality general education regardless of place of residence

Indicator name		Liabilities
Indicator name
Share of schoolchildren (%) studying in general education institutions that meet modern requirements for the conditions of the educational process
The average class size in general education institutions located in urban areas is within the limits established by the Sanitary and Epidemiological Rules and Standards
The average class size in general education institutions located in rural areas is within the limits established by the Sanitary and Epidemiological Rules and Standards
Creating for senior level students the opportunity to choose a training profile provided with the necessary equipment and highly qualified personnel for the high-quality implementation of relevant educational programs in each subject and effective in terms of the use of educational resources

The proposed mechanisms for implementing innovative development of education are tools for the design and software method.

1. Mechanism for predictive analysis of educational development

Through this mechanism, the principle of advanced development of education is largely implemented. Another effect is that information flows in the education system should change qualitatively through the use of modern technologies for creating databases about education and educational environments, prompt collection, processing and dissemination of statistical and other information.

The launch of a mechanism for predictive analysis of educational development will allow us to resolve pressing problems existing in the Novosibirsk region, which include:

lack of a system of public and public services that promote the employment and employment of graduates of educational institutions;

underdevelopment of the regional network of analytical and information educational centers for forecasting, monitoring and marketing of educational services.

The use of this mechanism will create conditions for qualitative transformations in vocational education and retraining of specialists in the education system through forecasting long-term personnel requirements of educational organizations, founders and educational institutions.

2. Mechanism for creating systemic educational complexes

A systemic educational complex is being created at the level of the municipality (urban district) of the Novosibirsk region and includes educational and other organizations and institutions of various levels, types and types, innovative educational programs, technologies and methods, as well as management infrastructure.

The goal of the systemic educational complex is to integrate the resources of the territory, create comprehensive conditions for diagnosing the educational potential of an individual, predictively building and implementing continuous educational and professional trajectories of all participants in the educational process. The systemic educational complex provides education:

from the level of preschool education,

through the level of acquisition of knowledge and competencies based on state standards and the choice of educational profile and profession at the stage of general education,

to the individual choice of the level of his professional education (primary, secondary or higher), as well as the opportunity for everyone to quickly undergo professional retraining or receive education in a new specialty.

Systemic educational complexes are focused on the prospects for economic, social and cultural development of the territory, and also take into account climatic and natural specifics.

The creation of systemic educational complexes is carried out on a competitive basis through the development of regional, municipal or public innovative educational projects that introduce and test:

integrated and network approaches to continuous general and professional education;

principles of state and public management of educational institutions;

technologies for network interaction of educational institutions (organizations) with other institutions and organizations in the local community (public institutions, businesses, universities, etc.).

3. Mechanism for targeted network implementation of innovations at the municipal level

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is implemented through the initiatives of the founders of educational institutions and the structures of their state and public administration, aimed at creating educational environments in the territories of their activity.

The mechanism of targeted network implementation of innovations at the level of municipalities implies that applications for participation in innovation activities are submitted exclusively by municipal authorities or structures of state and public education management as guarantors of the implementation of innovative projects and the creation of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region. Within the framework of one application (participation of several applicants is possible), the creation of at least two interacting systemic educational complexes can be presented.

The mechanism of targeted network innovation creates favorable conditions for the development of the principles of strategic investment and design of innovative development. Special conditions are created to implement the principle of openness of education and public participation. Within the framework of the mechanism under consideration, this principle is implemented through the proactive development of social and civil forms of management of educational institutions at different levels, the formation of regional and municipal educational policies, and participation in assessing the quality of education.

The forms of public and civil participation in education management include:

councils of participants in the educational process and councils of educational institutions;

councils of graduates of educational institutions;

boards of trustees and foundations of educational institutions;

municipal organizations and regional association of teachers and lecturers;

regional association of educational leaders;

funds for the development of education in municipalities and in the Novosibirsk region,

Public Chamber of the Novosibirsk Region;

employers' associations, etc.

It is the state-public structures of education management and determination of educational policy that ensure broad social interaction, develop network cooperation of educational institutions of different levels, types and types, their coordinated partnership with other associations of citizens living or actively carrying out their activities in the territory where educational institutions are formed and developed. Wednesday .

4. A mechanism for attracting investment in education through public participation in education management and the processes of determining educational policy

Public participation in education management and the processes of determining educational policy is the most effective mechanism for attracting investment in education through:

creating effective socio-economic relations between various subjects of the educational services market:

educational institutions of different levels, different types and types;

parents, state and municipal organizations and institutions, as well as the labor market as the main customers of the quality of education and training of specialists;

business incubators, consulting firms, etc.;

development of funds created by boards of trustees and alumni councils of educational institutions;

creation and development of a system of regional and municipal support for educational lending as an effective tool for increasing accessibility, first of all, of the vocational education system.

5. Mechanism for long-term regulatory financing of the consumer of educational services

The project, as an organizational form of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region, is fully consistent with the abandonment of estimated financing of educational institutions and the transition to a mechanism for long-term regulatory financing of the consumer of educational services.

Regulatory financing will objectively lead to innovative processes in education, which include:

creation of progressive methods for calculating regulatory funding for different levels of education, types and types of educational institutions;

development of a legislative and regulatory framework that increases the financial and economic independence and responsibility of educational institutions for the quality of educational services;

development of mechanisms for multi-channel and multi-level financing of educational institutions;

ensuring diversity of organizational and legal forms of educational institutions at different levels through the development of an appropriate regulatory framework;

formation of motivation of education workers, educational institutions, educational authorities for innovative development.

Risks

When implementing the Concept of Innovative Development of Education in the Novosibirsk Region, risks may arise associated with:

with underestimation of the principle of management by results;

with an inadequate interpretation on the part of the education system of the selected principles and directions of innovative development of education;

with the inertia of the legislator in matters of changing currently existing approaches to providing financial and economic independence to educational institutions;

with the unpreparedness of the education system to implement the Concept of Innovative Development of Education in the Novosibirsk Region;

with weak coordination of the actions of various subjects of educational policy.

2.9 Assessment of the effectiveness of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region

The concept of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region offers modern approaches to assessing the quality and effectiveness of education. In accordance with such approaches, the evaluation system relies more on qualitative criteria and indicators, the main of which are focused on long-term effects, and their assessment is delayed in time in manifestations and measurements.

The qualitative long-term effects of the implementation of the Concept of Innovative Development of Education in the Novosibirsk Region can be divided into two groups.

The first is the lasting effects in the innovative work of educational institutions and educational authorities. These include:

diagnosable solutions to assigned tasks and achieving the goal of innovative development of educational institutions or the education system in a municipality;

long-term and budget-supported planning of innovative processes carried out by educational institutions or educational authorities;

the duration of the proactive participation of teaching staff of educational institutions and specialists of educational authorities in innovative activities;

a stable positive attitude of participants in the educational process towards the innovative development of education;

the presence of competition within the framework of participation in educational processes among partners of educational institutions or educational authorities;

extension by partners of proposals for participation in events and programs planned as part of the innovative development of education, including regional, national and international; etc.

The second group should include effects associated with long-term support for the innovative activities of an educational institution and education management body from society. Among them:

a constant increase in partnership offers to an educational institution or educational authority;

creation of new innovative projects on the territory of the municipality;

constant interest of teaching staff in participating in advanced training courses, trainings, innovative seminars, creative research, including on the basis of a personal contribution from the participant, on a volunteer or free basis;

diagnosable implementation of innovative educational technologies;

active lobbying by the public and partners in various institutions and organizations of the interests of innovative activities of an educational institution or educational management body;

long-term presence in the budgets of the region and municipalities of articles on the financing of innovative educational projects and events proposed by educational authorities and educational institutions;

the ratio in budgets of all levels of the share of expenses for the current maintenance and functioning of the education system and the share of expenses for innovative educational socially significant programs and projects;

the ratio of the share of budget expenditures on education with the share of funds raised for the development of education; etc.

The system of quantitative indicators of the effectiveness of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region correlates with the system of target indicators and indicators of the Federal Target Program for the Development of Education for 2006-2010 and the Program for the Social and Economic Development of the Novosibirsk Region until 2025.

The demographic situation in the Novosibirsk region is gradually improving. In the forecast period, the birth rate will continue to grow, the number of children born will increase from 27.9 thousand people in 2006 to 31.3 thousand people in 2010.

The rate of natural population decline will decrease.

The number of preschool children is projected to increase (by 115% by 2006). At the same time, the number of school-age children will decrease by 19.2%.

A reduction in the number of children aged 15-17 years by 34.9% over the period 2007-2010 will lead to a reduction in the number of school graduates and, accordingly, the number of applicants and students in all institutions of primary, secondary and higher vocational education in the Novosibirsk region from among the region's residents.

During this period, it is predicted that the positive dynamics of migration population growth will continue, but it will not compensate for the natural population decline.

Since 2008, a gradual decline in the working age population has been predicted; the number of labor resources by 2010 may decrease by 41 thousand people (2.4%) and amount to 1672 thousand people. The process of population aging will continue. The share of people over working age will be almost 1.4 times higher than the share of the child population. The demographic burden on the working-age population will increase to 596 people per 1,000 people of working age by 2010. At the same time, an increase in the number of people employed in the economy is predicted. In 2010, the number of employees will be 1250 thousand people. The number of unemployed citizens will decrease. The number of unemployed and, accordingly, the level of overall unemployment are projected to decrease from 7.1% in 2008 to 6.3% in 2010.

In general, the general state of the labor market in the Novosibirsk region in the coming years is predicted to be stable.

The volume of investments allocated for the development of the economy and social sphere of the region for the period 2008-2010 is projected to be at least 380 billion rubles, the index of physical volume of investments in 2010 will be 209.9% compared to 2006.

Conclusion

With the adoption of the Federal Program for the Development of Education, a new stage in its development was outlined. The Federal Program, which was the organizational basis of state policy in the field of education, determined the strategy for the development of this most important area, its priority, the need for state support and real financing. The Federal Program, based on the Laws of the Russian Federation “On Education”, “On Higher and Postgraduate Professional Education”, is aimed at the medium term (until 2010). The need to reinforce it with republican, regional and sectoral programs for the development of education is determined by their orientation towards taking into account national and regional socio-economic, environmental, cultural, demographic and other features, the development and implementation of specific activities falling under the jurisdiction of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments, providing targeted financing from budgets of all levels and extra-budgetary sources.

The implementation of the main directions of development of the domestic education system, reforms at all its levels and ensuring the self-sufficient functioning of this most important sphere in the interests of the individual, society and the state is possible only if project goals, objectives, and main directions of modernization are communicated to specific educational institutions. In this regard, an important mechanism for implementing the Federal Education Development Program is the formation on its basis of municipal programs for forecasting the development of education.

Glossary

Education is a purposeful process of upbringing and training in the interests of an individual, society, and the state, accompanied by a statement of the achievement by a citizen (student) of educational levels established by the state (educational qualifications).

The receipt of education by a citizen (student) is understood as the achievement and confirmation of a certain educational qualification, which is certified by the appropriate document.

The education system is a set of interacting:

continuous educational programs and state educational standards of various levels and directions;

networks of educational institutions implementing them, regardless of their organizational and legal forms, types and types;

education authorities and institutions and organizations subordinate to them.

The educational environment is an integral set of opportunities and conditions for personal development available in a given territory that correspond to the level of development of the environment and the education system.

The quality of education is the correspondence of the results achieved in education to a given goal, that is, a measure of goal fulfillment.

Mission is the philosophy and purpose of an activity, the meaning of its implementation, the difference between a type of activity and other types of activity.

The philosophy of an activity determines its values and internal culture.

The purpose of an activity is characterized by the goals and objectives for the implementation of which the activity is carried out.

Health is a state of complete physical, spiritual and social well-being, and not just the absence of disease and physical defects.

Competence is an alienated, predetermined requirement for the educational preparation of students (state order, standard).

Competence - the ability to solve real life problems; proven readiness for action. The Council of Europe has identified five key competencies:

political and social competence;

ability to live in a multicultural world;

communication culture;

knowledge of information technology;

ability to learn throughout life.

A social educational contract is a social contract concluded between citizens and the state regarding the conditions, processes and results of educational activities and public control over the state’s implementation of these conditions. It is implemented through the creation by citizens themselves of influential and effectively operating public educational associations.

A systemic educational complex is an association of legal entities that corresponds to the tasks of creating an effective integration mechanism that ensures the implementation of a regional innovative strategic educational policy; as well as the practical implementation of lifelong education.

Innovation is an innovation in any field of activity or the final result of innovative activity, realized in the form of:

a new or improved process used in the practice;

a new or improved product sold on the market.

Sustainable development is social development that meets the needs of present generations without compromising the opportunities left as a legacy for future generations to meet their own needs.

Development is an irreversible, directed, natural change in objects, as a result of which their new qualitative state arises.

Investment attractiveness - in the broad sense of the word, means the presence of certain investment conditions that influence the investor’s preferences in choosing a particular investment object. As the main components of investment attractiveness, it is customary to distinguish its characteristics: quantitative - “investment potential” and qualitative - “investment risk”.

The directions and structure of activities, the presence of active and professional teams, and effective management are essential for investment attractiveness.

Corporate educational culture is a set of collective basic ideas acquired by society when solving problems of adaptation to changes in the external environment and internal integration, the effectiveness of which is sufficient to consider them valuable and transfer them to new members of the community through educational mechanisms as an adequate system of perception and resolution of these problems. The assessment of corporate educational culture is based on the degree of its compliance with the mission, strategy and goals of education.

Literature

1. Agapova T.N., Ivanova M.I. Forecasting indicators of general education at the level of a municipal district // Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. - 2007. - No. 2. - P.34-41.

2. Concept of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region

3. The concept of modernization of Russian education for the period until 2010

4. Kryukova E. The time has come for training // Paid education. - 2005. - No. 4. - P.48-49

5. Kuleshov V.V. Strategy for socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region: humanitarian aspect.

6. Methods, models and systems for forecasting regional development: Textbook / Ed. G.R. Khasaeva. M.: Academy, 2006. - 380 p.

7. Development of the education system as the most important factor in the socio-economic development of the territory. Results of the implementation of the program of socio-economic development of the Kachkanar urban district for 2005 - 2006 under the section "Education".

8. Sergeev N.G. etc. Monitoring system for analysis and forecasting of the development of education and educational structures of the Russian Federation. M.: Press, 2002. - 204 p.

9. Todosiychuk A.V. Forecasting the development of the education system // Education in documents. - 2008. - No. 7. - P.23-37.

11. Ushakov A.K. Development of forecasts for socio-economic development of regions using a complex simulation model // Russian Economic Journal. - 2000. - No. 2. - P.15-19.

12. Federal Law “On Education” dated January 13, 1996 N 12-FZ, dated November 16, 1997 N 144-FZ, dated July 20, 2000 N 102-FZ, dated August 7, 2000 N 122-FZ, dated February 13, 2002 N 20 -FZ, dated 03/21/2002 N 31-FZ, dated 06/25/2002 N 71-FZ, dated 07/25/2002 N 112-FZ, dated 01/10/2003 N 11-FZ, dated 07/07/2003 N 123-FZ, dated 08.12 .2003 N 169-ФЗ, dated 03/05/2004 N 9-ФЗ, dated 06/30/2004 N 61-ФЗ, dated 07/20/2004 N 68-ФЗ, dated 08/22/2004 N 122-ФЗ, as amended by the Resolution of the Constitutional Courts of the Russian Federation dated October 24, 2000 N 13-P, Federal Laws dated December 27, 2000 N 150-FZ, dated December 30, 2001 N 194-FZ, dated December 24, 2002 N 176-FZ, dated December 23, 2003 N 186-FZ.

13. Federal target program for the development of education for 2006-2010.

The forecast is a probabilistic assessment of future results and development paths of the education system, as well as the resources and organizational measures necessary for its implementation. In the process of developing forecasts for the development of the education system, it is necessary to observe the following methodological principles: 1) systematicity, which requires considering the object of forecasting and the forecast background as a system of relationships and relationships; 2) optimality, which involves the development of accurate and reliable forecasts at minimal cost; 3) analogy, which involves using knowledge about the development trajectory of similar objects as a source of advanced information about the development of the analyzed object; 4) complexity, providing a comprehensive description of the forecast object; 5) specificity, which presupposes mandatory consideration of distinctive, characteristic features and characteristics inherent only to the analyzed object.

Programming ensures the implementation of selected priorities based on national and territorial programs and projects, concentration of resources on breakthrough areas of educational development.

FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EDUCATION

(using the example of the Novosibirsk region)

Introduction

Chapter 1 Forecasting the development of the education system

1.1 Basics of forecasting the development of the education system

Chapter 2 Forecasting the development of education using the example of the Novosibirsk region

2.1 Goal setting for forecasting the development of education

2.2 Main directions and tasks of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region

2.3 Ensuring accessibility and quality of education

2.4 Development of social and civil forms of management of processes in education in the Novosibirsk region

2.5 Introduction of effective economic mechanisms into the education system of the Novosibirsk region and increasing its investment attractiveness

2.6 Methodology for medium-term forecasting of demand for specialists in the regional education system

2.8 Method, mechanisms and risks of innovative development of education

Conclusion

Glossary

Literature

Introduction

Russia is a federal state that unites subjects with their own specific level of socio-economic, cultural, and educational potential.

The quality of life and educational potential of the population is largely determined by the level of education and culture of the inhabitants, their ideological orientation and spiritual development, and the ability to systematically receive and use the necessary information. These factors influence the degree of inclusion of people living in the region in regional, national and global human processes of progressive development. Education that meets the modern needs of society and the labor market allows each person to develop the ability to quickly adapt to modern socio-economic realities, and this becomes the most important condition for successful and sustainable development. The common values accepted by the majority, culture and moral principles, as well as the intellectual, infrastructural, industrial and information potential created in our region, act as criteria for the quality of life of all residents of the region.

The inherited weak responsiveness of the existing education system to external demands and the deepening shortage of qualified personnel are a consequence of the incompatibility of the existing mechanisms of public administration with the tasks of creating favorable conditions for the development of the education system that meet the needs of the region. The underdevelopment of mechanisms for involving public and professional organizations in solving pressing issues of the formation and implementation of educational policy is obvious. Conditions have not been created for the development of independent forms of assessing the quality of education, and mechanisms for identifying, supporting and disseminating the best examples of innovative educational activities have not been developed. Understanding this, the pedagogical community realizes that education needs innovative development.

Based on the above, the purpose of this work is to predict the development of the education system using the example of the Novosibirsk region.

Consider the theoretical foundations of forecasting the development of education;

Develop a concept for the development of education;

Analyze and draw conclusions about the feasibility of social forecasting.

The object of the study is education as an integral structure.

The subject of study is forecasting the development of education as an integral system.

The research hypothesis is as follows: The use of forecasting will allow us to determine priorities in the development (formation) of the economy of the education system; management methods in this industry; and the direction of transformations corresponding to the economic, political and social changes occurring in society.

Chapter 1 Forecasting the development of the education system1.1 Basics of forecasting the development of the education system

The role of education in solving the problems of socio-economic development of Russia is:

creating conditions for increasing individual competitiveness;

development of the innovation sphere;

changing the structure of the economy in favor of knowledge-intensive industries;

formation of labor resources capable of reproducing and developing the material and intellectual potential of the country;

ensuring social and professional mobility;

the formation of a personnel elite of society based on the free development of the individual.

The socio-economic development of the country is influenced primarily by:

development of a modern system of continuous education;

improving the quality of professional education;

ensuring the availability of high-quality general education;

increasing the investment attractiveness of the education sector.

The implementation of these directions of state policy in the field of education will make it possible in 2006 - 2010 to create conditions for increasing the country's competitiveness, which is one of the goals of its socio-economic development, by solving a number of problems that hinder the development of education, such as:

inconsistency of the current legislation with the goals of intensive development of the education system;

lack of requirements for the content and quality of education;

inconsistency of resource provision in the education sector with the tasks of the country’s socio-economic development.

The organizational basis for the implementation of state policy in the field of education should be the Federal Target Program for the Development of Education for 2006 - 2010 (hereinafter referred to as the Program), ensuring the continuation of the modernization of Russian education. Measures taken in 2001 - 2005 by federal executive authorities, executive authorities of constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments within the framework of the implementation of the Federal Education Development Program, the Concept for the Modernization of Russian Education for the Period until 2010, and other interdepartmental and departmental programs in the field of education, created the basis for solutions by the domestic education system to the following tasks aimed at strengthening its role in the socio-economic development of the country:

bringing the content of education, teaching technologies and methods for assessing the quality of education in accordance with the requirements of modern society;

development of management mechanisms adequate to the tasks of development of the education system;

creation of economic mechanisms that ensure the investment attractiveness of education.

The solution to these problems is achieved by improving the regulatory legal framework, the necessary personnel, information and logistics support for the education sector.

Managing education as a dynamic system requires predictive information about the prospects for its development in order to make the necessary management decisions. The quality of human (intellectual) capital and the efficiency of the economy as a whole depend on the quality of forecast estimates and their effective use in the process of managing the education system. Forecasting for the purposes of managing the education system, considered as predicting future changes, is the selection of methods and approaches for the best use of accumulated knowledge about the development of education in the short, medium and long term.

In developed countries, forecasting the development of the education system is given great importance. The costs of research and development in this direction amount annually to about 2% of all allocations for science in the field of education. The benefits from research and development are more than 50 times higher than the costs associated with their implementation. Particularly important role should be given to forecasting the development of the education system in conditions of economic crisis.

1) systematicity, which requires considering the forecast object and the forecast background as a system of interconnections and relationships;

2) optimality, which involves the development of accurate and reliable forecasts at minimal cost;

3) analogy, which involves using knowledge about the development trajectory of similar objects as a source of advanced information about the development of the analyzed object;

4) complexity, providing a comprehensive description of the forecast object;

5) specificity, which requires mandatory consideration of the distinctive, characteristic features and characteristics inherent only in the analyzed object.

Forecasting the education system should be considered as predicting future changes in its development in the future. The purpose of forecasting, which includes a set of methods and approaches, is to make the best use of accumulated knowledge about education to select priority areas for its scientific and innovative development.

Strategic planning is focused on the implementation of the optimal path for the development of the education system based on selected priorities, determined on the basis of forecasting results, achieving set goals to ensure universal accessibility of education, improving its quality and competitiveness in the global market of educational services.

Indicative planning ensures the balanced development of the education economy in the implementation of strategic plans, national and territorial programs and projects based on a system of general indicators (indicators) of development and balances of the most important types of resources.

Programming ensures the implementation of selected priorities based on national and territorial programs and projects, concentration of resources on breakthrough areas of education development.

Scientific support for the development of education should provide answers to the following basic questions: what areas of scientific research and development will be priorities in the next 15-50 years; when and in what areas of knowledge the dominant scientific theories exhaust their potential, new paradigms will be formed; what branches of science will shape the technical and technological appearance of education in the future; what strength should be the scientific and technical potential that ensures: accelerated development of science within the chosen priority areas, transition of education to an innovative path of development; what should be the optimal balance between basic research, applied research and development in the field of education; what and when clusters of complex radical innovations are needed to ensure sustainable development of education on an innovative basis; what is the expected effect from obtaining and applying the results of research and (or) scientific and technical activities.

Financial support for the development of the education system in accordance with strategic and indicative plans, national and territorial programs and projects should be carried out on the basis of a combination of budget support for science and innovation with a system of tax and customs benefits and other financial and credit regulators, to create the interest of private investors in the implementation of selected priorities and programs and projects.

Logistics support involves the organization of work on the construction of new and major repairs of existing educational institutions (EI) and health-improving infrastructure, provision of the educational process with educational equipment and educational visual aids, informatization tools, textbooks, educational furniture, as well as on the basis of specially developed standards taking into account the specifics of the level education.

1.2 Long-term forecasting

Long-term forecasting should occupy a leading place in the system of state regulation of the education system. This is due to a number of factors.

Firstly, the education system as a macrosystem has inertia in its development. The ongoing changes, shifts in the technological structure of the economy, changes in generations of people and technology span several decades. Therefore, a sufficient horizon of vision is needed in order to assess the essence and trends of change and choose the optimal trajectory for the development of the education system. For example, in the 21st century, the transition to a post-industrial technological mode of production began in developed countries, the structure of the economy is being transformed, and noospheric thinking is being implemented. In the context of globalization, these trends have an impact on developing countries and, to a lesser extent, on third world countries. In addition, these objective trends are superimposed on the contradictions of the ongoing socio-economic policies in specific countries. For example, in Russia, the reforms carried out in the last two decades have changed the type of demographic development (trends towards depopulation and population aging are developing).

Secondly, hundreds of millions, or even billions, of rubles are invested in large national programs and projects in the field of education, and their implementation is delayed for decades. The correctness of the chosen strategic decision on programs and projects can only be assessed after 5 - 10 years. Strategic decisions made without foreseeing their consequences are costly. This is especially true for education. Examples include decisions on the transition to 12-year education at school, the mass liquidation of small rural schools, the financing of universities on the basis of State Financial Institutions, etc. Therefore, in order to prevent strategic mistakes and failures, it is necessary to make decisions based on forecast development assessments the sphere of education and its individual sectors.

Thirdly, the need for long-term forecasting especially increases in the context of modernization of the education system, when the chaotic nature and uncertainty of dynamics trajectories sharply increases.

Directions in methodology for forecasting the dynamics of the education system

Theoretical foundations, practical experience and model apparatus for the development of long-term socio-economic and innovative-technological forecasting have been accumulated abroad and in Russia. However, it is necessary first of all to determine the theoretical foundations, methodology and classes of macromodels on which long-term forecasting of the education system should be based.

Summarizing the accumulated experience, we can identify three areas of methodology for predicting the dynamics of the education system.

This methodology is quite reliable and gives results close to the truth within one phase of a long-term cycle. But it fails when trends change, at bifurcation points, when cycle phases change, and even more so when the cycles themselves change.

3. The methodology, based on cyclical genetic patterns of development, allows us to take into account the rhythm of cyclical dynamics in the economy, genetic limitations, the limits of change in the hereditary genotype when changing cycles, the directions of variability of systems for adaptation to changes in the environment.

Therefore, it seems that the third methodological option should be chosen as a methodological basis for long-term forecasting of the development of the education sector. However, this choice does not exclude the development of forecasts and model calculations based on the first two options of the methodology and comparison of the results obtained.

― cyclical development of the world and national economy;

― increasing the share of technological methods of production of the V technological structure (TU) and laying the foundations of the VI TU;

― accelerated development of the technological breakthrough sector in comparison with the evolutionary improvement sector;

― increasing the role of science as a factor in improving the quality of education;

― continuous (annual) increase in costs for education, the growth rate of costs for education exceeding the rate of economic growth, an increase in the knowledge intensity of education in developed countries;

― increasing the processes of globalization of education;

― acceleration of the processes of aging and updating of pedagogical technologies;

― an increase from year to year in the educational level gap in developed, developing and third world countries.

Forecast development process

The process of developing forecasts for the development of the education system should include the following stages: analytical, research, program and organizational. The analytical stage allows you to identify the state and development trends of the forecast object and compare them with the state and development trends of similar objects abroad. At this stage of developing the forecast, the results of the future development of science and education, necessary and desirable for achieving a certain level of satisfaction of the needs of the individual and specific consumers of educational services (employers), are determined. The result of the research stage is the determination of the goals of the future scientific and innovative development of the education system in the form of a scientific and technical problem to be solved during the forecast period. At the program stage, possible ways to achieve the goals of the future development of the education system are determined, options for achieving the necessary and desired results, the time and probability of implementing these options are identified. The organizational stage includes the identification of possible options for the distribution of resources and complexes of organizational and technical measures necessary to achieve the goals of the future development of the education system, as well as the most rational ways to achieve these goals. This stage completes a single cycle of predictive research, the purpose of which is to provide information that will help improve the scientific validity of educational management.

To develop forecasts for the development of the education system, it is necessary to justify and select small generalizing macro indicators for calculations and construction of balances for the main types of resources. The main features of the educational system forecasting object include the following:

1) difficulties,

2) scale,

3) the degree of its determinism,

4) the nature of development over time,

5) degree of information security,

Since forecasting is a process of balancing needs and capabilities, the forecaster needs to take into account the patterns of development of the forecast background within a particular national economy. The development of Russian education is taking place against the backdrop of sharp and rather unpredictable changes in macroeconomic indicators. The collapse of the economy inevitably affects the education economy in terms of reducing the effective demand of the state and the private sector in the educational services market. This in turn led to a decrease in the financial support of the education system. Reducing the cost of education leads to the degradation and collapse of the educational level of the population, with formal indicators of an increase in the share of people with higher professional education, candidates and doctors of science in the structure of the number of people employed in the economy, since in such conditions there are processes of reduction in the number and aging of scientific and teaching personnel, deterioration of the material and technical base of science and education, reducing the effectiveness of scientific activities.

The policy of accelerated denationalization and privatization of public property pursued in recent years is aimed at increasing the role of private business structures and reducing the role of the state in the economic life of the country. In this situation, the development of the education system will largely depend on the innovative activity of the entrepreneurial sector of the economy. This circumstance urgently requires the development of a forecast of effective demand of entrepreneurial structures in the market of educational services in conditions when the state is curtailing education funding. When developing such a forecast, it is necessary to take into account the results of sociological research, from which it follows that the majority of managers of Russian enterprises are indifferent to science and education.

Long-term forecasting of the development of education, taking into account global trends, should be carried out at the beginning of a partnership between the state, science and education. To justify its strategic and innovative function in the field of education, the state needs a long-term vision of the prospects for Russia's development against the backdrop of world trends and the country's inclusion in globalization processes. Therefore, federal and regional government authorities should act as the general customer of such a forecast, finance its development and use the results obtained. Only science can be the developer of long-term forecasts - highly qualified scientists, independent in their judgments and assessments, who have knowledge about the patterns of social development and the art of predicting the further course of events.

The central link in the overall state forecasting of scientific and innovative development of education is the choice of its priority areas. A nationwide approach is necessary here because the principle of self-sufficiency should not be applied in this case at all. In some areas it is significantly limited, and the payback period significantly exceeds the normative ones. If their payback periods go beyond 15-20 years, then the very concept of payback becomes conditional.

Forecasting the development of the education system should cover all the main directions of development of science and educational (pedagogical) technologies. The objects of forecasting scientific and innovative development of the education system include: priority areas of scientific and innovative development; scientific and technical potential; technical re-equipment and modernization of the material and technical base of the industry; personnel training; organizational and economic management mechanism; quality and competitiveness of educational services.

The effectiveness of the development of the education system is largely determined not only by the power of the country’s total scientific and educational potential, but also by its optimal distribution between regions and sectors of the national economy. The results of economic and mathematical modeling indicate that the maximum function of the strength of interaction between science and education is achieved under the condition of “equal magnitude” of the scientific and technical potentials of interacting objects. For example, the strength of scientific and technical interaction between industries with a predominance of products (works, services) III and V TU is practically zero. From the above, it follows that it is necessary to develop a forecast of the optimal placement of the country’s scientific and educational potential, its concentration on priority areas of educational development.

When developing forecasts for the development of the education system, all necessary information must be collected, and the information material must be repeatedly replenished and re-evaluated. To build a predictive model, statistical data and expert (intuitive) assessments should be used in combination. Since simple extrapolation methods are not applicable to predict most indicators of science and education, the variables included in the model for the most part represent reasonable intuitive estimates and assumptions. Moreover, the degree of uncertainty of information obtained from such estimates and assumptions increases as the forecast horizon, complexity and scale of the scientific and technical problems being solved increase. The likelihood that the predicted events will actually occur depends on the quality of the experts and the scientific validity of their assessments and assumptions.

Chapter 2 Forecasting the development of education, for example, the Novosibirsk region 2.1 Goal setting for forecasting the development of education

The concept of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on spiritual, cultural and social values that have developed over many centuries in the continuous activity of man in search of the meaning of life in the great megacultural space of Russia and its integral part - Siberia.

The goal of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is to determine the conditions and mechanisms for their achievement, which:

will ensure qualitative changes in education itself, the education system and educational environments of the region to provide opportunities for a person to develop multifacetedly as a spiritual, creative and healthy individual in accordance with the requirements of the modern development of the region;

will create conditions for interested participation of society in the development of education;

will fully take into account public demand from various groups of the population;

will contribute to the effective, competitive and sustainable socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region;

correspond to the development trends of modern Russia as a leading participant in global relations in the world.

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on the directions for the development of education for 2006-2010 proposed by the Federal Target Program and specially developed principles. It is on the basis of these principles that systemic changes should occur in education in the Novosibirsk region to ensure its accessibility, quality, continuity and investment attractiveness.

Innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on the following principles:

the principle of advanced development of education;

principle of designing innovative development;

the principle of openness of education and public participation;

the principle of continuity of education;

principle of strategic investment;

the principle of innovativeness of the educational environment.

1. The principle of advanced development of education.

The principle of rapid development of education is applied as an adequate response to requests determined by the directions of socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region until 2025. This principle means a mobile reorientation of the education system to prepare a person for life in rapidly changing conditions of intensive development of social and economic processes and a new quality of life, ready to quickly offer their participation in response to the demands of society and the labor market.

2. The principle of designing innovative development of education.

The principle of designing innovative development of education involves the development and implementation now of projects aimed at the future - for the sustainable long-term development of education.

3. The principle of openness of education and public participation.

Taking this into account, the Concept of Innovative Development of Education is based on the principle of openness of education and public participation. This principle presupposes the achievement of public consent, on the basis of which the government, society, business, public organizations and the professional teaching community assume obligations to jointly promote innovative educational processes in the Novosibirsk region. The achieved public agreement will make it possible to build constructive mutually beneficial relations among all subjects, which will ensure the necessary changes in such a complex socio-economic sphere of life in the region as education.

4. The principle of continuity of formation.

The modern world is characterized by a transition to global processes, in which human knowledge and competencies based on them will play the most important role.

Continuous education of a person throughout his life is a factor in the mobility of society and its readiness for predictable changes. Providing the state and society with opportunities for a person to constantly develop and educate himself, regardless of age, state of health and other factors, contributes to the harmonization of social relations through the fair redistribution of knowledge as the main capital of a person. Possession of knowledge capital allows a person to effectively organize and manage his own life, and ensures the rights of everyone to self-realization.

5. The principle of strategic investment.

If society wants to develop over the long term, its strategic investments must be directed towards people, and therefore into their education.

6. The principle of innovation in the educational environment.

2.2 Main directions and tasks of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region

The range of problems facing the development of education in the Novosibirsk region in accordance with the request of the Russian state is complex in nature, therefore, the tasks set to overcome existing problems can be grouped into complexes, on the basis of which the following directions for the innovative development of education in our region are determined:

development of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region;

ensuring accessibility and quality of education;

development of social and civil forms of management of processes in education in the Novosibirsk region;

introduction of effective economic mechanisms into the education system of the Novosibirsk region and increasing its investment attractiveness.

A unified educational environment, which should be created in the Novosibirsk region, assumes an orientation towards the demands of citizens, public groups, the labor market, the state and ensures the free development of the individual, is aimed at the creative and healthy development of the individual, increasing the competitiveness of a person who has received professional training on the basis of free choice, and the formation of a regional personnel an elite capable of reproducing and developing the resource and intellectual potential of the region.

The creation of a unified educational environment is based on the expansion at the level of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation of the powers and opportunities, rights and responsibilities of the founders of educational institutions, as well as regional and local communities as consumers of services provided by the education system. The guarantee of the participation of all subjects in the formation of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region is the achievement of general public consent. State and municipal authorities of the Novosibirsk region, state and municipal institutions, political and public organizations, joint-stock companies and individuals, associations of various types, everyone whose activities are actively developing in the region are invited to take part in the social contract.

Objectives of innovative development of education, ensuring the development of a unified educational environment of the Novosibirsk region:

1. implementation of regional educational policy aimed at network interaction of all subjects of the unified educational environment of the Novosibirsk region;

5. initiation of management processes that increase the responsibility of founders for the activities of educational institutions.

2.3 Ensuring accessibility and quality of education

The right to education is a constitutional guarantee for every citizen.

To achieve accessibility and quality of education in the Novosibirsk region in the course of its innovative development, it is necessary to solve the following problems:

1. carry out a continuous educational process at its various levels, ensuring the maintenance of human health and the development of its potential;

2. develop and implement a regional state-public system for assessing the quality of education and the activities of educational institutions and organizations.

3. annually hold regional competitions for the development and implementation of projects in the areas of innovative development of education;

4. introduce models of integrated educational institutions, including adapted educational programs at various levels, providing equal starting opportunities for the education of children, regardless of their social, racial and religious background, psychophysical health, and the level of well-being of their families or guardians;

5. develop a system of continuous professional education focused on the needs of all categories of citizens in building their own educational and professional trajectories.

2.4 Development of social and civil forms of process management in education in the Novosibirsk region

Today, a clear conclusion has been made that the development of education is impossible without its openness to society. Openness consists not so much in the regular publication and public presentation of reports of educational authorities and educational institutions on their activities, but in public participation in educational activities.

Openness will allow education in the Novosibirsk region to gain an objective idea of its development, free itself from existing stereotypes, and enter into a constructive public dialogue that develops interactions and ensures mutual enrichment.

On the path to the development of social and civil forms of education management, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

2. to work out the mechanisms for managing educational institutions when changing the organizational and legal forms of their activities in the conditions of increasing economic independence of educational institutions, increasing the transparency of financing, increasing their responsibility for the effectiveness of the educational process, the results of their activities;

3. carry out design developments in terms of building interaction between vocational education institutions and employers, ensuring the attraction of additional material, intellectual and other resources into the field of education.

2.5 Introduction of effective economic mechanisms into the education system of the Novosibirsk region and increasing its investment attractiveness

Innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is aimed at introducing effective financial and economic mechanisms that ensure the quality of educational processes and the efficiency of spending budget funds, as well as increasing the investment attractiveness of education.

Solving existing problems on the path to economically sustainable development of education in the Novosibirsk region is possible by performing the following tasks:

1. develop, test and implement a regional model of multi-channel financing of educational institutions and organizations of all levels, types and types;

2. develop, test and implement effective technologies for managing the quality of education, ensuring its investment attractiveness;

3. actively use proven and design new mechanisms, including regulatory and legal ones, for the effective use of budget funds;

2.6 Methodology for medium-term forecasting of demand for specialists in the regional education system

Currently, the volumes and list of specialties and professions for which young workers are trained are often planned on the basis of outdated or insufficiently verified information that does not reflect changes in the labor market and does not take into account the capacity of the labor market. As a result, some graduates risk obtaining specialties that are no longer in demand on the labor market (for example, there are known imbalances in training in the specialties “lawyer,” “economist,” “accountant”). On the other hand, there is a growing imbalance of supply and demand in the labor market, associated with the ratio levels of vocational education. Thus, it should be noted that there is a double structural imbalance in the demand and supply of jobs in the regional labor market: by level of education (primary, secondary, higher vocational education) and in terms of professional qualifications.

Forecasting the needs of the labor market in these conditions is considered as an important component of the marketing information necessary for the development of measures to regulate and monitor changes in the educational services market, and strategic planning of a system of training and retraining of personnel focused on demand.

Drawing up long-term balances of labor supply and demand is the main component of the mechanism for managing the human resources potential of the region, an important component of an effective model of organizational and economic interaction between regional vocational education systems and labor markets. But, as a rule, forecasts and economic development programs prepared in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are based on information received from state statistics bodies and reflecting the employment structure only in a sectoral context. Currently available statistical data do not allow us to assess the dynamics of employment in terms of the professional and qualification structure of jobs in the regional economy. This information is clearly not enough to plan a personnel training system. The sectoral structure of employment does not provide any idea of the professional qualifications of workers (in agriculture, these can be livestock breeders and winegrowers), or the required level of education (in livestock farming, these can be veterinarians and milkmaids). On the other hand, the professional qualifications of an employee are not necessarily strictly tied to one or another sector of the economy: for example, the profession of a driver is universal and is present in the statistics of every sector of the economy.

The development of the methodology was based on the following basic ideas:

1. Since forecasting the personnel needs of the region is the main link in the holistic mechanism of interaction between regional labor markets and vocational education, and the target for developing the forecast is its use for the formation of an annual regional order for personnel training in the system of primary, secondary and higher vocational education, the methodology for analyzing the labor market assumes that forecasting The professional and personnel needs of the economy should be built not in terms of industry, but in terms of professions and specialties.

2. As the analysis of existing approaches to the development of medium-term personnel forecasts has shown, none of the methods used can be considered satisfactory from the point of view of achieving forecasting goals. A complementary approach is needed, including various methods of research and forecasting of the labor market.

3. It is advisable to use as additional research methods:

secondary analysis of statistical data and identification of trends in employment;

analysis of programs and projects for the socio-economic development of the region;

analysis of plans and programs for investment in the real sector of the regional economy;

analysis of demographic statistics.

4. The main method of collecting information should be a direct survey of employers in the region, since the structures of current and future employment, even at homogeneous enterprises, have significant differences. With this approach, it is possible to partially neutralize the factor of interchangeability of specialists, since the immediate managers of enterprises (personnel services) are quite well aware of the specific specifics of the employment structure. This is the difference between the proposed methodology and the methodology developed, for example, by the National Board of Education of Finland.

2.7 Updated main forecast indicators of socio-economic development of the Novosibirsk region in 2009

High rates of economic development of the region in 2008 were realized against the backdrop of ongoing economic growth in the Russian Federation. However, in the second half of the year, the impact of the global financial crisis began to manifest itself, especially in the banking sector and a number of industries that are highly dependent on borrowed funds.

Problems hindering the development of consumer and investment demand, as well as the high level of competition for financial investment resources, will become more severe due to their increasing shortage.

The developed financial infrastructure of the Novosibirsk region, including the leading banking sector in the region, the largest regional exchange platforms: stock, foreign exchange and commodities, create conditions for the concentration of financial resources, technologies and specialists in the field of finance.

The stability of the functioning of the economy and social sphere of the region in the conditions of negative manifestations of the crisis will be ensured by a relatively high share of the budget sector in comparison with other constituent entities of Russia. In the structure of those employed in the regional economy, those employed in the budget sector make up about 25%. This area in 2009 will be least susceptible to crisis phenomena, will ensure stable employment, increased wages for those employed in it, as well as stable effective demand in the market for consumer goods and services (Table 1).

Even in the presence of a number of factors that ensure relative stability of the economy and social sphere in the planning period, difficult economic conditions place special demands on the effectiveness of management actions, the elaboration and formation of multivariate management decisions, and the involvement of specialist experts and participants in the transformation process in the development of such decisions.

In the planning period, the concentration of efforts of executive bodies of state power and budgetary funds will be focused on the development of science and education, the development of markets and maintaining the effective demand of the population, investment processes, technical and technological renewal of production and the creation of new knowledge-intensive enterprises, the development of housing construction, support and development of small and medium-sized businesses, optimizing and increasing the efficiency of social services.

Table 1 - Stability of functioning of the economy and social sphere of the Novosibirsk region

Name of indicators Unit of measurement 2007 report 2008 assessment 2009 forecast Gross regional product billion rubles 347,434,476 Gross regional product index as a percentage of the previous one. year 111.0 109.7 102.4 Gross regional product per capita thousand rubles 131.5 164.6 180.3 Industrial production index as a percentage of the previous year. year 112.3 109.0 102.2 Index of gross agricultural output as a percentage of the previous year. year 111.5 106.0 104.0 Index of the volume of work performed by type of activity “construction” in% of the previous one. year 133.7 109.0 92.0 Freight turnover of transport organizations in% of the previous one. year 105.8 102.5 101.5 Passenger turnover of transport organizations in% of the previous one. year 106.6 109.0 103.0 Retail trade turnover index as a percentage of the previous year. year 114.3 114.0 103.0 Index of the volume of paid services to the population as a percentage of the previous one. year 111.2 113.8 104.0 Volume of investments in fixed capital billion rubles 85.2 110.0 117.0 Index of volume of investments in fixed capital as a percentage of the previous year. year 144.4 118.0 100.0 Volume of investments in fixed assets per capita thousand rubles 32.3 41.7 44.4 Number of permanent residents (average annual) thousand people 2638.1 2637 2639.9 General coefficient birth rate people per 1000 population 11.4 12.5 12.6 Natural increase rate people per 1000 population - 3.3 - 2.1 - 1.7 Migration growth rate people per 1000 population 1.4 3.0 3.0 Number labor resources thousand people 1761 1721 1701 Average consumer price index for the year in% of the previous one. year 108.1 114.1 112 Maximum increase in tariffs for housing and communal services for the population in% of the previous one. year 115 118 122.8 Employee wage fund billion rubles 129.6 167.8 192.4 Real disposable income of the population as a percentage of the previous one. year 113.3 112.6 102.7 Living wage rubles 4030 4826 5415

Noting that the actual growth rates of most indicators of the socio-economic development of the region are ahead of the forecast ones, the Governor of the region emphasized the following: “We are focusing on the development of the scientific and educational complex and an innovative economy aimed at producing a unique product. I am convinced that the economic effect from this will be much higher than in regions that rely on traditional sectors of the economy. This effect should lead to a significant increase in income and other indicators of quality of life. For example, within a three-year period we are ready to reach the normal housing affordability regime that exists in developed countries, when the income of the population, on the one hand, and management decisions in the field of housing lending, on the other, are capable of making housing truly affordable for the absolute majority of the economically active population.”

2.8 Method, mechanisms and risks of innovative development of education

The method and mechanisms for its implementation involved in the framework of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region are aimed at:

to change the dominant attitude towards education as a costly sector of the economy towards the understanding that education is a strategic resource for economic development.

The innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region is based on the design and software method.

The use of the design and program method will allow us to assess the readiness of the education system of the Novosibirsk region for cinematic innovation development (Table 2).

Table 2 - Development of a network of general educational institutions in the region: providing conditions for obtaining high-quality general education regardless of place of residence

Indicator name Fact Obligations 2006 2007 2008 2009 Share of schoolchildren (%) studying in general education institutions that meet modern requirements for the conditions of the educational process 52% 67% 80% 100% Average class size in general education institutions located in urban areas is within the norm established by the Sanitary and Epidemiological Rules and Standards 22.0 22.8 24.3 25.0 The average class size in general education institutions located in rural areas is within the limits established by the Sanitary and Epidemiological Rules and Standards 8.4 9.6 11 .0 12.7 Creation for senior students the opportunity to choose a training profile provided with the necessary equipment and highly qualified personnel for the high-quality implementation of relevant educational programs in each subject and effective in terms of the use of educational resources 51.8 56 60 62

The proposed mechanisms for the implementation of innovative development of education are tools for the project-program method.

1. Mechanism for prognostic analysis of educational development

Launching a mechanism for predictive analysis of educational development will allow us to resolve pressing problems existing in the Novosibirsk region, which include:

lack of a system of public and public services that promote the employment and employment of graduates of educational institutions;

underdevelopment of the regional network of analytical and information educational centers for forecasting, monitoring and marketing of educational services.

The application of this mechanism will create conditions for qualitative transformations in vocational education and retraining of specialists in the education system through forecasting long-term personnel requirements of educational organizations, founders and educational institutions.

2. The mechanism for creating systemic educational complexes

A systematic educational complex is created at the level of the municipality (urban district) of the Novosibirsk region and includes educational and other organizations and institutions of various levels, types and types, innovative educational programs, technologies and methods, as well as management infrastructure.

The goal of the systemic educational complex is to integrate the resources of the territory, create comprehensive conditions for diagnosing the educational potential of an individual, prognostically building and implementing continuous educational and professional trajectories of all participants in the educational process. The systemic educational complex provides education:

from the preschool level,

through the level of acquisition of knowledge and competencies based on state standards and the choice of educational profile and profession at the stage of general education,

to individual choice of the level of their professional education (primary, secondary or higher), as well as the opportunity for everyone to quickly undergo professional retraining or receive education in a new specialty.

Systemic educational complexes are focused on the prospects for economic, social and cultural development of the territory, and also take into account climatic and natural specifics.

The creation of systemic educational complexes is carried out on a competitive basis through the development of regional, municipal or public innovative educational projects that introduce and test:

integrated and network approaches to continuous general and professional education;

principles of state-public management of educational institutions;

3. Mechanism for targeted network implementation of innovations at the municipal level

The mechanism of targeted network implementation of innovations at the level of municipalities implies that applications for participation in innovative activities are submitted exclusively by municipal authorities or structures of state and public education management as guarantors of the implementation of innovative projects and the creation of a unified educational environment in the Novosibirsk region. Within the framework of one application (participation of several applicants is possible), the creation of at least two interacting systemic educational complexes may be presented.

The forms of public and civil participation in education management include:

councils of participants in the educational process and councils of educational institutions;

councils of graduates of educational institutions;

boards of trustees and foundations of educational institutions;

municipal organizations and the regional association of teachers and educators;

regional association of educational leaders;

funds for the development of education in municipalities and in the Novosibirsk region,

Public Chamber of the Novosibirsk Region;

employers' associations, etc.

It is the state-public structures of education management and determination of educational policy that ensure broad social interaction, develop network cooperation of educational institutions of different levels, types and types, their coordinated partnership with other associations of citizens living or actively operating in the territory where the educational environment is formed and developed.

4. The mechanism for attracting investment in education through public participation in education management and the processes of determining educational policy

Public participation in the management of education and the processes of determining educational policy is the most effective mechanism for attracting investment in education through:

creating effective socio-economic relations between various subjects of the educational services market:

educational institutions of different levels, different types and types;

parents, state and municipal organizations and institutions, as well as the labor market as the main customers of the quality of education and training of specialists;

business incubators, consulting firms, etc.;

development of funds created by boards of trustees and graduate councils of educational institutions;

creation and development of a system of regional and municipal support for educational lending as an effective tool for increasing accessibility, first of all, of the vocational education system.

5. Mechanism for long-term regulatory financing of the consumer of educational services

Regulatory financing will objectively lead to innovative processes in education, which include:

creation of progressive methods for calculating regulatory funding for different levels of education, types and types of educational institutions;

development of a legislative and regulatory framework that increases the financial and economic independence and responsibility of educational institutions for the quality of educational services;

development of mechanisms for multi-channel and multi-level financing of educational institutions;

ensuring diversity of organizational and legal forms of educational institutions at different levels through the development of an appropriate regulatory framework;

formation of motivation of education workers, educational institutions, education authorities for innovative development.

Risks

When implementing the Concept of Innovative Development of Education in the Novosibirsk Region, risks may arise associated with:

with an underestimation of the principle of results-based management;

with an inadequate interpretation of the selected principles and directions of innovative development of education on the part of the education system;

with the inertia of the legislator in matters of changing currently existing approaches to providing financial and economic independence to educational institutions;

with the unpreparedness of the education system to implement the Concept of Innovative Development of Education in the Novosibirsk Region;

with weak coordination of the actions of various subjects of educational policy.

2.9 Assessment of the effectiveness of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region

The concept of innovative development of education in the Novosibirsk region offers modern approaches to assessing the quality and effectiveness of education. In accordance with such approaches, the assessment system relies more on qualitative criteria and indicators, the main of which are focused on long-term effects, and their assessment is delayed in time in manifestations and measurements.

The qualitative long-term effects of the implementation of the Concept of Innovative Development of Education in the Novosibirsk Region can be divided into two groups.

The first is the lasting effects of the innovative work of educational institutions and educational authorities. These include:

diagnosable solutions to the tasks and achieving the goal of innovative development of educational institutions or the education system in the municipality;

long-term and budget-supported planning of innovative processes carried out by educational institutions or educational authorities;

the duration of the initiative participation of teaching staff of educational institutions and specialists of educational management bodies in innovative activities;

sustainable positive attitude of participants in the educational process towards the innovative development of education;

the presence of competition in the framework of participation in educational processes among partners of educational institutions or educational authorities;

extension by partners of proposals for participation in events and programs planned as part of the innovative development of education, including regional, national and international; etc.

The second group should include effects associated with long-term support for the innovative activities of an educational institution and education management body from society. Among them:

a constant increase in partnership offers to an educational institution or educational authority;

creation of new innovative projects on the territory of the municipality;

diagnosable implementation of innovative educational technologies;

active lobbying by the public and partners in various institutions and organizations of the interests of the innovative activities of an educational institution or education management body;

the ratio of the share of budget expenditures on education with the share of funds raised for the development of education; etc.

The demographic situation in the Novosibirsk region is gradually improving. In the forecast period, the birth rate will continue to increase, the number of children born will increase from 27.9 thousand people in 2006 to 31.3 thousand people in 2010.

The rate of natural population decline will decrease.

The number of preschool children is projected to increase (by 115% by 2006). At the same time, the number of school-age children will decrease by 19.2%.

During this period, the positive dynamics of migration population growth is predicted to continue, but it will not compensate for the natural population decline.

Since 2008, a gradual decline in the working-age population has been predicted; the number of labor resources by 2010 may decrease by 41 thousand people (2.4%) and amount to 1672 thousand people. The process of population aging will continue. The share of people over working age will be almost 1.4 times higher than the share of the child population. The demographic burden on the working-age population will increase to 596 people per 1,000 people of working age by 2010. At the same time, an increase in the number of people employed in the economy is predicted. In 2010, the number of employed will be 1250 thousand people. The number of unemployed citizens will decrease. The number of unemployed and, accordingly, the level of overall unemployment are projected to decrease from 7.1% in 2008 to 6.3% in 2010.

In general, the general state of the labor market in the Novosibirsk region in the coming years is predicted to be stable.

The volume of investments allocated for the development of the economy and social sphere of the region for the period 2008-2010 is projected to be at least 380 billion rubles, the index of the physical volume of investments in 2010 will be 209.9% compared to 2006.

Conclusion

With the adoption of the Federal Program for the Development of Education, a new stage in its development was outlined. The Federal Program, which was the organizational basis of state policy in the field of education, determined the strategy for the development of this most important area, its priority, the need for state support and real financing. The Federal Program, based on the Laws of the Russian Federation “Education”, “On Higher and Postgraduate Professional Education”, is aimed at the medium term (until 2010). The need to reinforce it with republican, regional and sectoral programs for the development of education is determined by their focus on taking into account national and regional socio-economic, environmental, cultural, demographic and other features, the development and implementation of specific activities assigned to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments, providing targeted funding from budgets of all levels , extrabudgetary sources.

Glossary

Education is a purposeful process of upbringing and training in the interests of an individual, society, and state, accompanied by a statement of the achievement by a citizen (student) of educational levels (educational qualifications) established by the state.

The receipt of education by a citizen (student) is understood as the achievement and confirmation of a certain educational qualification, which is certified by the appropriate document.

The education system is a set of interacting:

continuous educational programs and state educational standards of various levels and directions;

networks of educational institutions implementing them, regardless of their organizational and legal forms, types and types;

educational authorities of institutions and organizations subordinate to them.

The quality of education is the correspondence of the results achieved in education to a given goal, that is, a measure of the fulfillment of the goal.

Mission is the philosophy and purpose of an activity, the meaning of its implementation, the difference between a type of activity and other types of activity.

The philosophy of activity determines its values and internal culture.

The purpose of an activity is characterized by the goals and objectives for the implementation of which the activity is carried out.

Health is a state of complete physical, spiritual and social well-being, and not just the absence of disease and physical defects.

Competence is an alienated, predetermined requirement for the educational preparation of students (state order, standard).

Competence is the ability to solve real life problems; proven readiness for action. The Council of Europe has identified five key competencies:

political and social competence;

the ability to live in a multicultural world;

communication culture;

knowledge of information technologies;

ability to learn throughout life.

A public educational contract is a social contract concluded between citizens and the state regarding the conditions, processes and results of educational activities and public control over the state’s implementation of these conditions. It is implemented through the creation by citizens themselves of influential and effectively operating public educational associations.

Innovation is an innovation in any field of activity or the final result of innovative activity, which has been implemented in the form of:

a new or improved process used in the practice;

a new or improved product sold on the market.

Sustainable development is social development that meets the needs of current generations without compromising the opportunities left as a legacy for future generations to meet their own needs.

Development is an irreversible, directed, natural change in objects, as a result of which their new qualitative state arises.

The directions and structure of activities, the presence of active and professional teams, and effective management are essential for investment attractiveness.

Corporate educational culture is a set of collective basic ideas acquired by society when solving problems of adaptation to changes in the external environment and internal integration, the effectiveness of which is sufficient to consider them valuable and transfer them to new members of the community through educational mechanisms as an adequate system for perceiving and resolving these problems. The assessment of corporate educational culture is based on the degree of its compliance with the mission, strategy and goals of education.

Literature

1. Agapova T.N., Ivanova M.I. Forecasting indicators of general education at the level of a municipal district // Regional economics: theory and practice. - 2007. - No. 2. - P.34-41.