Now we live in the era of the fourth world war, Russia is building an empire again, but Belarus will no longer become part of it. These are the main theses of the Minsk speech of the Russian publicist Stanislav Belkovsky. He became the second guest of the intellectual club of Svetlana Aleksievich. Today TUT.BY is publishing a video of the lecture, which caused a mixed reaction from the invitees and provoked the audience into controversy.
Stanislav Belkovsky and Svetlana Aleksievich
- Stanislav's speeches are always interesting in thought. Bribing not only his forecasts, which often come true, but also the brilliance of the mind. This speaks of some kind of realness, - introduced the guest Svetlana Aleksievich. We live in a time when old order world order is bursting at the seams. And such people help us answer the questions we are busy with today.
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The conversation went beyond the declared topic “The Fourth World War. The last exit for the post-colonial world”: it was about Obama, and about the Crimea, and about the crashed TU-154 of the Russian Defense Ministry. Stanislav Belkovsky made a reservation that he was not a political scientist, but only a publicist. And his point of view is only his own thoughts, and not unconditional truth.
TUT.BY gives some theses of Belkovsky's speech.
Journalist and political scientist Valery Karbalevich 
Historian Valentin Golubev 
Andrey Dmitriev, one of the leaders of the civil campaign "Tell the Truth" 
Svetlana Aleksievich and political scientist Yuri Drakohrust 
Literary critic and political scientist Alexander Feduta 
Historian Nina Stuzhinskaya (left) and ex-chairman of the Belarusian Association of Journalists Zhanna Litvina (right) 
Philosopher Vladimir Matskevich 
Co-director of the Franco-Belarusian Center for European Studies, employee of the Department for Cooperation and Culture of the French Embassy in Belarus Xavier Le Torrivellec 
About the war that's going on now
The Fourth World War (Stanislav Belkovsky considers the Cold War to be World War III. - Approx. TUT.BY) is already underway. This is a war of ambition and a war of psychology.
In the modern sense, war is not what it was in the twentieth century, when, after an official announcement, the troops of one country are introduced into the territory of another. Today it is a hybrid war. It involves not so much a formal invasion as a whole operation of measures on this occasion.
War today does not mean mass loss of life. This is a kind of point action system. It turned out that Russia can hack sites. This means that the US cannot resist this. This means that a war on NATO territory is possible. It's already happening.
The purpose of all these promotions is to show: new world Obama, who assumes the victory of soft power over hard power, is shaking with the convulsions of the old world. This is a tactical defeat, not a strategic one.
Why Putin Supports Trump
Putin's sympathy for Trump is not at all about pragmatic considerations. Because the American president's team is filled with anti-Russian people. And there is no reason to believe that there will be some kind of reversal in the direction of the Russian Federation. Sympathies are connected with the fact that there was a victory of the old world over the new.
And this also explains Putin's dislike for Obama, whose values the Kremlin was incomprehensible. The former US president became the creator of a new world, he broke all the old stereotypes. In addition, he formulated positions that determine the vector of development in which ideas and technologies are superior to brute physical strength.
About modern Russia
The only country that cannot renounce the Russian Empire is Russia. But I have always urged the Russian people to recognize Russia as a nation state, not an empire.
Any rulers are divided into those who seek the dignity of their own people, and those who cultivate the shortcomings. Vladimir Putin belongs to the second type. He does everything so that there is a tendency to slavish worship of power, to the fact that the state is a strict mentor and teacher who beats hands. She disciplines people in this way. So the inhabitants of the country do not believe in themselves, but think that only a leader can achieve something and force everyone to do something.
Russia's problem is that it has not become the nation state it should have been. The empire has collapsed, but does not recognize it. When she refuses this, then everything will calm down.
About relations between Belarus and Russia
Belarus will not become part of the Russian world. And Vladimir Putin will not start a direct war with Belarus, because this would lead to the collapse of the Eurasian Union, which for Russian leader symbolic. This structure, although a bluff, is proof of the productivity of the integration of the post-Soviet space.
At the same time, Putin does not trust Lukashenka and does not consider him his friend. As well as vice versa.
The very formation of Belarus is possible by distancing itself from Russia.
- The trend of Putin's policy is that he, like any conservative person, is endowed with inductive thinking: everything that he did before, he implements today.
- Yes, of course, he will tighten the screws, because he has done it before. Because the people love him, he can do anything. Everything. And why not do it if it is comfortable for him to do it? Relatively speaking, you wake up in the morning, you want to go drink freshly squeezed juice - you go and drink freshly squeezed juice. Suddenly, Vitaliy Dymarsky meets you, who says: “Why do you need to drink freshly squeezed juice?” You say: “Vitaly Dymarsky, I drink freshly squeezed juice because I like it.” And what will he do next? Will he keep extending himself? He will renew himself, but not as president. All my assessments and analysis of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin are based on psychoanalysis.
- Yes, he is a gravedigger, and he will die along with the Motherland. And we will stay because we are optimistic. Prepared by Valery Lebedev based on the materials of the performances at the "Echo of Moscow"
The current Putin differs from the young one only in his status, because his opportunities have changed, the space in which he operates has changed. But fundamentally, no, nothing has changed. He remains an absolute conservative and inductivist, he is absolutely alien to any reforms. There will be no reforms under Putin. Therefore, the arguments that he will appoint some kind of prime minister-reformer are absolutely groundless. It is possible to appoint a prime minister-reformer, but reforms will not matter: he will block them himself.
This is all described in the book by Sigmund Freud, written with the help of Sabine Spielrein, Beyond the Pleasure Principle. Vladimir Vladimirovich simply moved to the stage of self-destruction. Putin has always benefited from the destruction of the systems he served.
Soviet Union. He works in Dresden. He is a simple official in Dresden. He never worked in the foreign intelligence service. This is nonsense, a hoax, he was not a spy. But he serves faithfully to the Soviet Union. And when this service faithfully ends, when supposedly some hordes of Germans shout: “Throw down the House of Soviet Culture!” in Dresden - the situation seems nonsense to me, because, having lived for many years in Germany, I know that the Germans will never smash anything. This is not Pakistan or Bangladesh, no, it was he who invented this whole story to show what a hero he was, that he defended the House of Soviet Culture.
And according to his own version, set out in his book “A Conversation in the First Person” by Andrey Kolesnikov, Anatoly Simakov and Anatoly Gevorkyan, he moonlights as a private driver on the Zaporozhets. That's what he worked as a private cab on the "Zaporozhets", laid a big conflict with Ukraine.
I think he came up with. He didn't earn a damn thing as a private driver on the Zaporozhets. Well, it doesn't matter, he said it, let's assume it's true. And what happens. Within a couple of years he becomes a deputy, then first deputy mayor of St. Petersburg and, in general, a key figure in the Northern capital, he manages everything.
That is a disaster Soviet Union pushed him up. Moreover, as we know, the catastrophe of the Soviet Union is the largest geopolitical defeat of the 20th century, according to his version.
Farther. Anatoly Sobchak loses the election of the mayor of St. Petersburg. And Vladimir Vladimirovich was the head of Sobchak's headquarters. Putin was not only actually, but also formally responsible for this result. And what is the result of the fact that Vladimir Putin lost the choice of Sobchak? He becomes president Russian Federation.
Now Putin has entered the third circle of self-destruction...
He destroys the system that brought him up, but the KGB, the Cheka and the FSB, which no longer exist in his mind. He destroys the Russian Federation. He cut it off from Western funding on which the Russian Federation was built. He cut her off Western technologies, which are an immanent condition for the existence of the Russian Federation, because without modern technologies this country cannot exist. Everything.
Only a few countries exist without Western technology, for example, the DPRK. Yes, there is. Cuba exists. And then Barack Obama practically opened Cuba, and showman Donald Trump for some reason is trying to quarrel with Cuba.
So let's take it to the next level. Which one? Planetary, space, of course. Vladimir Vladimirovich is going to go beyond the criteria for evaluating his actions. He does not care. Those people who believe that he is acting correctly - with him. Those people who believe that he is acting incorrectly are not with him.
Right now, for example, the Central Bank is facing a complete pogrom of the banking system and a complete withdrawal of assets. Fine! This is exactly what he wants. Therefore, all the hysterical cries on the topic “How so ?!” break on the answer: "And so." Because that's what Vladimir Vladimirovich wants. He wants to be completely alone. After all, Putin's prime minister should be someone who cannot be president. And it is clear that a woman of Tatar origin (Nabiullina) cannot be president. And in principle, Dmitry Medvedev was not prime minister. None of the prime ministers can be president. Vladimir Vladimirovich does not like this. Of course, this is the cultivation of loneliness. The divorce shows that Vladimir Putin does not want any visualization of himself, positioning himself as a person connected with bonds family life. And the children, they are from Alina Kabaeva's sister, we know. And his daughters, who are born in a legal marriage - why does he hide them? Because he is afraid that pressure on children will motivate him to make some political decisions that he does not want to make.
He is closest to Nicholas I, of course. No, he does not mold himself for anyone. He sees himself as a colossal historical loser. He couldn't live. He became president at the age of 47. Here I will be 47 years old in six months. And he would like to walk along the Cote d'Azur and swim somewhere in the Maldives. But he didn't succeed. He became a "galley slave". And this “slave in the galleys” is an honest mythology.
When Berezovsky persuaded him to become president, according to Berezovsky, he did not want to. And Berezovsky asked: “What do you want then?” He says, "I want to be like you." Yes this is true. So he was left all alone. There is no one who would understand him, who would understand how heavy this burden is to be the President of the Russian Federation. Because all his associates, all his friends, they can swim in the warm sea.
But he can't. In doing so, he offered himself on the altar of their interests. And when sanctions were introduced, he actually said: “Guys, you earned billions of dollars thanks to me? Please make sure you prove your loyalty to me." Maybe consciously he did not confirm this, but unconsciously it is so. Therefore, it is important for him who is absolutely alone, like him.
I actively studied Chinese literature as a child. I don't know Chinese, so I studied it in Russian, only translated versions. And my favorite novel was The Three Kingdoms by Luo Guanzhong. There, in fact, was the story of the sage Tian Fyn. This is the principle of Tien Feng, which I have been practicing ever since. Because the great sage Tian Feng told his boss, his boss, that there was no need to do something, that is, he gave him right advice to avoid any problems. Then the boss did the opposite and lost. And put Tian Feng in jail.
And early in the morning the jailer came to Tian Feng and said: “Tian Feng, you see, everything turned out as you said. I think that now you will be released from prison and elevated to the master's mat. To which Tian Feng said: “No. You don't understand the situation at all. If my advice turned out to be correct, and the boss did not follow it, I will be executed.” He was executed on the same day.
This is the answer to the question of whether Putin still has people he can trust. No, Putin still has people who know how to keep silent. The school of silence is great.
This is how Napoleon acted at the end of his career, when he lost everything, although he was a man of absolutely outstanding abilities. Because a great leader does not need to listen to something in which he is wrong. Napoleon Bonaparte characteristic example. Everything was fine with him until he went to Spain, not even to Russia. In 1906, he entered Spain and, after the Cortes, installed his brother Joseph, an absolutely nonentity, who then, in 1814, traded to take the place of Napoleon Bonaparte as emperor, but even Alexander Pavlovich, our emperor, said that with this we will not have anything to do with nothingness, - he made him king of Spain. What happened? He completely lost only because he brought troops into Spain.
Then he brought troops into Russia in 1812. Moreover, I read the correspondence between Talleyrand and Metternich - now radio listeners want to know in what language I read this correspondence - in French, yes, of course, since all of Europe at that time spoke and wrote in French - who said that Alexander had no chance There is no way to win the war, in three months Napoleon will completely crush ... "I never saw Julien Nalestro alive," remember?
Let's imagine that Putin would answer this question, whether he corresponds to the status of a great leader in terms of his talents. He would say: “So you are going to argue about whether I meet the criteria of a great leader according to some parameters that you set? All these years you've been telling me that my regime would collapse. You told me that my regime would collapse when there was Nord-Ost, when there was Beslan. You told me that everything would collapse when the West imposed sanctions on me because of the annexation of Crimea, and that this should not be done. Excuse me, please, but what is my rating today, dear Vitaly, Ksenia and Stanislav? And don't go to hell with all your comments about the fact that my regime could collapse. He cannot collapse. May I get up and go? Because you don't have a single argument that would prove that my regime is fragile. You know, during the 17.5 years of my reign, I was buried 25 times. Just a small note: now, everyone who buried me 25 times, they are all gone. From Boris Berezovsky to Boris Nemtsov. They are no longer physically there, and other people like Vladimir Gusinsky or Mikhail Khodorkovsky are no longer politically. And I'm still here guys, I'll outlive you all."
Vladimir Putin has many tools, ranging from controlled media to the National Guard. Because, after all, it is no coincidence that such a strengthening of all systems for ensuring the security of the president personally. This cannot be done by a person who is really confident in his own inviolability. He is confident in her on a conscious level, but on an unconscious level, his anxiety is growing.
It is important for Putin that “I will still build you the way you are, I will highlight you the way you are. You have some interests, don't you? You are all nonentities. You want money or status. I will prove it to you."
Here is his famous phrase that “after the death of Mahatma Gandhi there is no one to talk to”, testifies to this. Do you have a Mahatma Gandhi ID? Can you really go for tanks, for machine guns? Can you really show a certificate that you are a saint? No. You are the same person as me. Therefore, since I am the president and you are not, I will prove to you that you are a nonentity. Haha! Yes, I'll prove it to you now. Now I will offer you something - some position or money - and you will not refuse. And when you do not refuse, I will hug you and shake your hand and lead you to the door of my office and say: Dear friends what are you telling me here? Are you fighting for freedom of speech or something else? No, you are not fighting for it. You are fighting for your insignificant, petty, pitiful interests. And after the death of Mahatma Gandhi, indeed, there is no one to talk to. So close the armored doors of my office from the other side. I will wait for Mahatma Gandhi until he comes.
He loves dogs because they are really sincere. They love their master not for money, nor for any other benefits. The more I get to know people, the more I love dogs.
My book "The Business of Vladimir Putin" was published in 2006. And then the progressive public criticized me very strongly. And the end of this article - after all, no one reads anything, including Belkovsky - it was written there that Putin is not Mussolini and not Hitler. He is Mobutu Sese Seko. And what is Mobutu Sese Seko in translation? A warrior who destroys everything in his path. He swept away everything in his path. He showed that all representatives ruling elite mean nothing. Do you have any values, says Vladimir Vladimirovich, that I cannot understand? You don't have those values.
What does he really feel when he receives news of the murder of Politkovskaya, Nemtsov, Litvinenko. The payoff for any ambition is death, that's what he feels.
Did you want to be great? You have been killed. Only little man can't be killed. What can I do - me, Putin? As the poet Vsevolod Emelin said, "a corpse was brought to the table." Well, you wanted to be great, Anna Politkovskaya? You wanted to expose me and my entire regime. You must have understood that the price for this is death, right? Yes. You got it. Boris Efimovich Nemtsov, didn't you understand that with zero chances of becoming president, you have to pay for your ambitions? Everything, no problem. And I would have been killed - I just have a lot of security, - says Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, - that's why I create it.
And Berezovsky? Do you believe in suicide? You see, I knew Berezovsky well. Berezovsky was a very depressed person. He was a man with suicidal tendencies. He is a typical MDP-shnik, that is, a manic-depressive psychosis. What is called Bipolar Personality Disorder according to ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases). Therefore, when something fascinated him, when he met with people who occupied him, especially with the presidents of other countries, and so on, something else, he, in fact, was incredibly cheerful. He exuded a lot great ideas. And Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, said that such a cheerful person could not commit suicide. Alexander Grigoryevich is mistaken, because he has never seen him in a depressed state. And I saw.
We remember how Putin officially reacted to his death. He was asked at a press conference: "What do you think about Berezovsky's death?" Berezovsky wrote two letters to him. I have read these letters. Berezovsky did not show them to me. Why I read it, I won't say now. And these letters, indeed, they are humiliating for Berezovsky. And Putin said at a press conference that “my assistants suggested that I publish these letters. And further, - said Vladimir Vladimirovich, - the Lord saved me from this step. He loved Berezovsky. He didn't want to kill him. No, Berezovsky got rid of himself by this crazy process against Abramovich, who lost.
The position of the Boris Yeltsin family, formulated back in 1999, was as follows: Berezovsky should not interfere in any state affairs, because Berezovsky cannot be trusted, he is a person who will blurt everything out. And it was clear that he would be thrown out, back in 1999. Here Putin's role was minimal. I believe that Putin never wanted to kill Berezovsky, never wanted to get rid of him. All these talks that there were some conspiracies and attempts to liquidate Boris Abramovich - no, I don't think so, they didn't exist. This whole mythology was created by Berezovsky's former partner Badri Shalvovich Patarkatsishvili, also deceased. Who himself died at the most inopportune moment, because at that moment it was necessary to confirm or not to confirm the ownership of Berezovsky and Patarkatsishvili to the shares of Metalinvest owned by Alisher Burkhanovich Usmanov. And so, at the moment when it was necessary to confirm and for which Berezovsky and Patarkatsishvili paid 500 million dollars, Patarkatsishvili died along with all the papers that confirmed this case. Mysterious story yes. But Putin - no, no. He always had tender feelings for Berezovsky, in my opinion. And this was manifested in his reaction to the death of Boris Abramovich, who, indeed, hanged himself, because he was left completely alone. As Marina Ivanovna Tsvetaeva said, “Blessed be the one who follows him. You are the supreme hour of loneliness!”
Berezovsky died in March 2013. And they called me then, including from Ekho Moskvy, because by that moment I was one of Berezovsky's last friends.
Abandoned and littered graves of Boris Berezovsky (left) and his mother. BrookwoodCemetery, UnitedKingdom.
We became friends after the Ukrainian revolution, when we met him on a yacht in Israel, and he said: “Old man, of course, what you did is a blast.” He said a different word, but we are in order to avoid the sanctions of Roskomndazor ... Therefore, from that moment he began to trust me that I could do something, and it was interesting and pleasant for him. Therefore, we were actually friends for the last ten years of his life. And in January 2013, he called me and said - and then everything was already taken away from him - he said: “Old man, let's fly,” and “old man” was his standard address, “let's fly to Cape Town. You have never been to Cape Town, but right now, in January, the weather in Cape Town is perfect.” Berezovsky had a residence permit in South Africa. Because Lord Tim Bell, co-owner of Bell Pottinger at the time, who did Berezovsky's PR, he was a close friend former president Frederico De Klerk, former president of South Africa. And he organized a residence permit and brought him a case: three countries, located in three countries - in the UK, in Israel, since he was a Jew, and in South Africa. And he called me and said: "Let's go, have a rest in Cape Town." This is two months before his death.
And then he did not have his own plane. Previously, he had his own plane, then he didn’t. And I should be on a scheduled flight to London, and then we were supposed to be on a scheduled flight to Cape Town. And I can’t stand flights very well, I said: “Borya, let’s fly to Cape Town yourself, and then, when you return from Cape Town to London, I will fly in and we will discuss everything.” And I don't know if he flew to Cape Town or not.
Therefore, I urge all Ekho Moskvy listeners: if you have a friend who wants you to fly to Cape Town with him, do not refuse, because tomorrow may be too late.
You know I'm for long years study of psychoanalysis came to an interesting conclusion, and now I will present it for the first time.
About the Oedipus complex. Freud believed that the Oedipus complex is connected, as it were, with jealousy of the mother, that a person hates his father because he is jealous of him for his mother. No, I don’t think so, based on the results of a long study of those incidents that Freud himself cited. A man hates his father because his father gave him life. The basis of the Oedipus complex is an aversion to life. Do you know what perinatal syndrome is? Does it ever happen to you that before your birthday you are sausage and stomped? Many are familiar. Because a person leaves the womb on his birthday, where he is absolutely comfortable, and most importantly, there is a person who is fully responsible for him - this is his mother, he himself is not responsible for anything - in a world hostile to him. And that is why man is born with an aversion to the very idea of life. He did not ask to be born, he did not ask to be sent to this vale of suffering in which he is. No. But he forgives his mother, because his mother gave him life at the cost of suffering and torment. And the father - no, he got a child for free.
Here is the Oedipus complex - this is exactly it, this is the rejection of the very idea of \u200b\u200blife. And so a person, one way or another, is looking for suicide, he just does not always find it. When a person's life is exhausted, he finds him quickly, like Alexander Sergeevich Pushkin. For some reason, it is commonly believed that Dantes is Pushkin's enemy. No, of course, he is his closest friend: he did what Pushkin wanted. That is, it is a form of suicide. Like Lermontov. Pushkin himself provoked this duel. And, of course, the famous letter, written by no one knows who, he wrote to himself.
Putin follows the path of self-destruction in the same way, because this is the psychology of the unconscious, my friends, and the unconscious is stronger than the conscious. Vladimir Vladimirovich was left completely alone. Putin's calling is to stop world history. He is trying to do it. He will not succeed, and he will tragically ascend this scaffold.
Here is our own problem as citizens of Russia is that Putin is the all-powerful ruler of this country. If he had institutions that limited his power ... Why am I, in fact, a supporter of constitutional monarchy because it's the only alternative absolute monarchy in this country. “But old age is Rome, which, in exchange for turuses and wheels, does not demand readings from the actor, but complete death in earnest.” No, again, whether a believer is Putin, only Putin and the Lord God know - these two subjects. Vladimir Putin is just very fatally inclined, he is too sad. He does not have a drop of optimism, which should be inherent in a believer. He wants to bury... how Samson brought the temple down on himself - that's what he's going to do with Russia.
