If not Putin, then who? An alternative list of candidates for the presidency of the Russian Federation from the experts of “Such cases. New presidential candidate Belkovsky for president

19/06/2018

Well-known political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky, who worked in the Kremlin in the past, believes that despite some changes in the composition of the Presidential Administration, nothing special has happened. Belkovsky knows better, because he, like no one else, knows the internal Kremlin technologies.

Dear friends,
here, yesterday, before the Kemerovo tragedy, I wrote a text at the suggestion of one media outlet.
This text was rejected by the media for which I wrote it, and all the rest.
Why - you be the judge.
Well, there is FB, and FB has a pathetic me. Sometimes it happens.

PUTIN AND DEATH, or RUSSIA OF THE FOURTH TERM

Old age has no alternative, like Putin

Maria Rozanova

And so the garden was arranged to make it easier
Us henceforth
In the night battle, created by touch
Die unconditionally.

Mikhail Gendelev

It is impossible to explain Vladimir Putin and his fourth (fifth?) term in terms of so-called political analysis. Only psychoanalysis is suitable here.
However, let's talk about everything in order.

Here is how it was.

In 2000, at the age of 47 (that's as long as I am now, only I'm not the head of state and nobody at all), one still very old gentleman became the president of the Russian Federation. And suddenly he found himself the same "slave in the galleys." It turned out that to become the head of a country in which no one is able to object to you - since you are a king, and in this capacity you are completely sacred - this is no pleasure, but a heavy burden.
For thousands of years, humanity has known and talked about the sword of Damocles, but for some reason forgets about it whenever it comes to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Millions of bipedal creatures sincerely believe that the owner of the Russian country is very happy with his position, bathes in luxury, steals a lot of money and is generally utterly happy. But he himself doesn't seem to think so.

The logic of Vladimir Vladimirovich, as far as it can be reconstructed from open sources (we are not talking about any insider information in this case, it is not needed by a psychoanalyst by definition), boils down to the following fundamental points.

1. This people cannot be respected. Already because he elected a person completely unknown to him as the main boss then, more than 18 years ago. And since then I have been re-elected as many times as the boss wanted. No sound and no syrup.

2. At the same time, this people should be pitied, you can sympathize with them. When you see a begging old woman at the station, do you have a motive to give her fifty rubles? But this does not mean that you highly appreciate the unfortunate. You are simply giving in charity to lessen the heavy burden of your own inescapable sin. Reduce the poverty of this unjust world.

3. As one of the founding fathers of Russian statehood, Genghis Khan (Temujin), said, "the roads to the past are overgrown with grass." Youth is no more. Once upon a time it seemed to our leader that he would fulfill his duties and then have time to generously live a bourgeois life. No. Life (in this it differs, as you know, from the male genital organ) turned out to be tougher. Russia is a black hole from which even light cannot escape. What can we say about the president? As my favorite literary hero Zhuge Liang (this is Luo Guan-zhong's Three Kingdoms, the main Chinese classic novel) put it, "I will return when my service is over." At the moment of pronouncing this text, it already becomes clear that the service will never end, and the hero will die on the campaign, without achieving the desired victory. The same with Vladimir Putin.

4. I don’t know who coined the well-known phrase “if there is Putin, there is Russia; if there is no Putin, there is no Russia.” (Vyacheslav Volodin, the current speaker of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, spoke it publicly). But this phrase is much wiser than it seems at first glance. From the point of view of the Russian leader, Russia is identical to his physical existence, and vice versa. Therefore, when the President of the Russian Federation says - in the film by Vladimir Solovyov "World Order-2018" - that we do not need a world without Russia, he actually means himself. As Leo Tolstoy said through the mouth of his sick Ivan Ilyich: “I won’t exist, so what will happen? Nothing will happen. So where will I be when I'm gone? Is it death?" If I were a Kremlin political strategist, I would offer the following motto for Putin's fourth or fifth term: Russia is our Fatherland, and death is inevitable. You can't imagine anything more precise than this phrase by Peter Smirnovsky in relation to today's RF situation.

5. The founder of psychoanalysis, Sigmund Freud, together with his best student Sabina Spielrein (our lady from Rostov-on-Don), explained in the book “Beyond the Pleasure Principle” how a person finds himself in the arms of Thanatos and follows the path of self-destruction. Vladimir Vladimirovich has fully reached this stage. He is the walking hero of the said work. In the development of the thoughts of Freud - Spielrein, the philosopher Jean Baudrillaire argued that Eros, i.e. love is a prelude to death. In other words, if you don't fall in love, you won't die, and vice versa. President Putin, no doubt, fell in love with his country, which is so malleable to him, so compassionate, and how a historically Russian woman should treat her man. What has just been said does not contradict paragraph 1: love and respect are rather antonyms than synonyms. We almost never love those we respect. And we do not protect those we love. After all, everyone who lived in the world Killed his loved ones, One - with cruelty, the other - with the Poison of praise, With an insidious kiss - a coward, And the brave - on the spot (© Oscar Wilde).

6. The whole policy of Russia since 2014 has been implicated in the concentrated energy of self-destruction. Vladimir Putin removed the country from the world financial markets, which we cannot do without, and removed it from the technological revolution that we need like air. In return, he offered Russia a hybrid war - where as enough for self-destruction. And in this self-destruction, he catches his last presidential high. Dying - so with music, that's the philosophy of the fourth or fifth Putin's term. Therefore, the argument “the Kremlin did not need to persecute Colonel Skripal, especially before the World Cup” is devoid of not only grounds, but also practical meaning. Caught by Thanatos, a person always does what is objectively harmful to him. A suicide climbs into a noose not because it is good. And then, when fatigue from the burden of physical life, the pain of this worldly existence becomes stronger than obligations to this life and its subjects / objects. Vladimir Vladimirovich is deliberately aggravating. In this sense, the worse relations between Russia and the West, the better for the president. If you place yourself in a besieged fortress, you must constantly provoke the continuation and development of the siege - otherwise your internal legitimacy is lost. Which is always more important than external legitimacy, i.e. witnessed by someone other than yourself. "There is rapture in battle, and the dark abyss on the edge, and in the furious ocean, among the menacing waves and stormy darkness, and in the Arabian hurricane, and in the breath of the Plague." The plague with us is always with a capital Ch.

7. In Russian literature there is the “Gulag Archipelago”, and there is also the tradition of Dostoevsky, stretching, with various reservations, to Venedikt Erofeev and Sergei Dovlatov. "Archipelago" claims that hell is the Gulag (more broadly - totalitarianism). The alternative tradition understands and testifies: hell is inside a person. One can be free in the Gulag and a prisoner-slave under the most democratic democracy. Likewise with the fortress. Which is alive with the feeling of war and will surely fall, physically or metaphorically, when the psychology of war has exhausted itself. That is why Vladimir Putin must and is forced to continue the war, in many different senses of the term.

8. At the same time, I do not at all claim that Putin is a nightmare and hellish hell. No. In a country that survived Joseph Stalin, it would be indecent to argue like that. Our president has long been convinced that the faithful Russian Federation can be fucked as you like, in any sophisticated form, and you will not get anything for it. But at the same time, Vladimir Vladimirovich has a certain format of kenosis. He did not destroy all opponents - but he could have, and the dome of the world would not have collapsed on his head. And Echo of Moscow still exists, and the Dozhd TV channel, and the Snob magazine, and the miserable Belkovsky still writes his notes, and our leader regally does not notice all this petty disgrace. As my friend, the British King Edward VIII (who abdicated in order to marry a divorced American Wallis Simpson), said, giving up the throne is in its own way cooler than sitting on the throne. Vladimir Putin does not use even half of his gigantic capabilities as a dictator-tyrant-destroyer-throat-leader. In addition, I am ready to fully agree with this position: our unfortunate people have never lived so satisfyingly as under the current leader. Holy truth. The coming starvation is retribution for a temporary, not very well-deserved satiety.

9. Living water and Berthollet's salt of this power - ressentiment. In other words, revenge. The leader takes revenge not on the West and not on traitorous enemies, but on the time that has passed through his wrestling fingers, not giving him the opportunity to live a sweet bourgeois life, but chaining the slave to the galley of Russian statehood, which is senseless in places and almost always merciless. We, the Russian people, are taking revenge on ourselves for not becoming a full-fledged Europe. But they could, until recently they could. Will we still be able to in the future - God knows. “How strange were the speeches of the mask” ©. The instrument of revenge is that same war.

10. So, we (Russia) live inside the leader's self-destruction program. You can not accept this, but you can't get away from it - at least as long as Mr. Putin retains absolute power.

It is also important to never forget that the current president of the Russian Federation, by his basic way of thinking, is a tactician, not a strategist. Therefore, there is no need to ask what he will do in 6 years, or at least one year. He himself does not know. There is no need to ask meaningless questions if we do not want to dig into meaningless and hopeless answers.

What follows from this if we talk about the scenario for the next term of the irremovable president?

A) The continuation of the war, but not to the end. Proxy operations, terrorist attacks, hacker attacks on Western "partners".

B) Tightening nuts. Including - further persecution of the Internet and new communication environments in general. But not the end. There will be no DPRK option.

C) The degradation of all life-forming structures of the state and society - roughly speaking, the same old age and death.

D) The aggravation of the moral crisis, which is already manifesting itself where it is possible and where it is impossible - from the statements of the First Channel about the beneficial nature of the murder of Mr. Skripal (like, there will be with everyone!) to the well-known Slutskygate (not my fault, she herself came!).

E) The ability to live outside the dominating organism. “Freedom is when you forget the patronymic of a tyrant” ©.

I'm pretty sure President Putin really wants to step down from power. He still dreams of the very human life that ended for him in an almost boyish (by today's standards) 47. But it is still not clear who and how, if not over the teeth, the armed forces of the Russian Federation, guarantee him safety in case and after leaving. I seriously believe that Ksenia Sobchak could become the successor of Vladimir Vladimirovich - he trusts her, and not unreasonably. She, despite certain scandalous elements of her former image, is a reliable and conventional person. Mr. Putin not only understands this, but also feels that it is much more important.

When will it all end? - you ask.
Answer: at the moment of death and never again.

And what are we to do? Wait and hope.
Time is an extremely long thing ©. Especially the Russian time in the Russian space, not letting anyone out - from the president to the homeless of the Kursk railway stations - from their embrace.

Well, as the same Dovlatov said, history will begin after death. The history of another country, which will probably be called Russia, but will be different in content.
Will we live? The devil knows.

Stanislav Belkovsky

Presidential elections and football are far from all the main events of 2018. In an interview with Fontanka, Stanislav Belkovsky summed up his political results of the year, assessed the human characteristics of the leaders and told what to expect from them next.

Screenshot / //www.youtube.com/Radio Liberty

Everything is under control, "food" as a concept will not disappear, despite the impact of new sanctions on the financial system of Russia, Ksenia Sobchak is a good candidate for governor of St. Petersburg, is there a sign of Putin's future retirement. Political scientist and writer Stanislav Belkovsky told Fontanka about Russian politics in 2018-2019 and said that as long as we have Druzhba processed cheese, we have nothing to fear. Even a new war.

Stanislav Alexandrovich, for Vladimir Putin, the main events - 2018 -. He said so at the final press conference. Is it really the most important thing?

“There is no reason not to believe the president. His final press conferences are exactly his monologue. The questions don't matter. Under the guise of answering questions, he tells what he wants. Vladimir Putin is generally burdened by publicity. He simply submits to the need to hold large events, since this is an important element of the power ritual. And the ritual in Russia is one of the guarantees of the stability of power. Note that he canceled the address to the Federal Assembly at the end of the year. Two big events in one month are too much for him. Presidential elections as the main event - it's just on duty. In fact, he hates elections.

Here it is worth referring to the early quotes of President Putin from the latest film by documentary filmmaker Vitaly Mansky, Putin's Witnesses. There, Putin in 2000 says that he could not even imagine that he would participate in the elections, as if the elections were “total mud”. But as the leader of the country, he must say that the source of his legitimacy is the elections. And football really was a bright show, which actually distracted people from a lot of internal and external problems. Putin answered all questions about domestic politics and the economy without a twinkle. With completely dull eyes. It is clear that these issues are of no interest to him.

Kyiv Maidan in 2014 ate the triumph of the Sochi Olympics. What about football triumph? Who and where did this positive turn out to be an asset?

- Vladimir Putin, from his point of view, he turned out to be. Championship took place. He was not selected, although in 2014-2015 there was a lot of talk about this topic. The Russian team performed quite successfully. It's good that they played well, but Putin is not a fan. First of all, he is worried that the leaders of the countries that participate in the sanctions still came to the championship. Both French President Emmanuel Macron and Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic. And they sat with Putin in the same box. For Putin, this is a demonstration that the isolation of Russia is not total and not fatal.

- What did we get from this championship?

“Personally, I was really happy. Like a football fan. Huge event. The level of football was very high. The level of organization was very high. You can't explain to a non-fan.

- And even Pussy Riot couldn't do it?

- After the elections in March, which of those admitted or not admitted to the elections acquired after the fact?

- The fact is that the election of the President of Russia is a very specific thing. Vladimir Putin himself did not de facto participate in them. He was elected before the election. He only confirmed his powers in the format of a ritual referendum on confidence. Pavel Grudinin showed that the decision to nominate him was correct. That he has a political future. Although it is not known what will happen next after all the turmoil that arose after March with his property and personal life - whether he will be involved in politics at all. Ksenia Sobchak showed that she could be the first among liberal or conditionally liberal candidates. Well, Alexei Navalny, who was not admitted to the elections, was able to demonstrate that these elections did not make sense. Which in general was clear without him.

- Who, as a politician, gained more: Sobchak or Navalny? If it is to be weighed in grams.

- This benefit is small. It is at the level of statistical error. In any movement, consistency is important. For the same Ksenia Anatolyevna, if she wants to continue participating in a political career, participation in this “referendum” was absolutely necessary. It was a serious entry into politics, when you get more and much more experienced candidates on the go. She got more than nothing. As for Alexei Anatolyevich, he remained where he was. The sabotage failed. Calls for a boycott were not successful.

Is the failure of United Russia in the regional elections in the fall of 2018 an event of the year? To what extent is it leveled by the authorities? Putin is in no hurry to communicate with "unplanned winners."

– The failure of United Russia candidates, of course, is one of the main events of the year, as it reflects the growth of protest moods in society. Other candidates won in four regions at once. Including in Primorye - Andrei Ishchenko, who was removed from the elections. The election is undoubtedly it. For all four voted on the principle of "anyone, but not United Russia." Symptomatic and alarming signal for the Kremlin. However, Putin himself has no alarmism about this. He believes that he is outside the political system. He is a monarch. And therefore, no matter what oppositionists win in the regions, they are still dependent on him and completely controlled. Naturally, the Kremlin is doing everything possible to level this failure, but it is increasingly clear that belonging to the party in power is becoming toxic. This is no longer a “good”, but a “minus”. And all this negatively affects the position of the party and, as a result, the entire political system. But not for Putin.

- That is, they will not look for the guilty?

- There is such a thing - an analyst's mistake. And it is very common among us. This is an attempt to put your head on someone else's shoulders. Many analysts here think that if something is obvious to them, it is obvious to Vladimir Putin as well. Far from it. For example, I believe that what is happening in the internal politics of the Russian Federation is a destabilizing factor, but Putin does not think so. And we should be more aware of what he thinks. Simply because much more depends on him in this country than on me and all other analysts combined. Delaying communication with the winners was necessary for Putin, so as not to strengthen their sense of their own importance, so that their roof would not move out of happiness. They still need to "sit in the waiting room." As they say: "If you are free, this is not your merit, but our defect." In this case: "If you became governors, this is not your merit, but our shortcoming."

In this sense, the Kremlin curator of domestic policy Sergei Kiriyenko is in the black or in the black? He obviously got a bonus for March. But not for autumn.

- In general, it's positive. The presidential election was his main task for 2018. The president's result was . At the same time, no one questioned the legitimacy of the elections. Success Kiriyenko. In the fall, he failed, but Putin is conservative. If for him a person has great merits, then he will definitely not be disappointed from such failures.

- "Levada-Center" at the end of the year frightened us with the falling ratings of the leaders. Twice since March, who believes that the country is going the wrong way. Are you scared?

– A respondent in Russia does not always tell the truth. I would take any opinion polls critically. In addition, we observed similar fluctuations in previous years. Repeatedly. But it never led to anything in terms of changes in the political system. Therefore, if this regime is destined to fall apart, and it is impossible to sit in self-isolation and self-separation from international financial processes indefinitely, then something like a “palace coup” will be the first step towards change. In this sense, the mood of the people, of course, plays a certain role. But they do not reach the leader as such. He is convinced that the situation inside the country is completely under control. And the multinational people of the Russian Federation will endure everything. And in 2019, absolutely nothing will change in this sense. There will be inertia.

Has the street protest died down? Do threats of punishment for involving children in protest work?

- The protest here did not even think to begin. Garbage rallies in the Arkhangelsk region at the end of the year showed this. Yes, local centers of protest will steadily grow and expand in 2019. Another thing is that this will not result in a powerful nationwide protest that would cast doubt on the very existence of the regime. But the growth of protest will be.

The fight against the free Internet in Russia will face sabotage by the authorities themselves.

- Artemy Troitsky is right that if they really start to cut down the Internet, then the children will not stay at home and a “real brawl” will begin?

- Undoubtedly. Children will trample on the street purely physically if they do not get into the Internet. Where else can they go? The Internet is a powerful social damper. This is a mechanism for defusing social tension. By no means only its aggravation, as the initiators of all these useless legislative novels think.

- Who will be punished first for insulting the authorities and obvious disrespect for society? Law . Isn't it you, Stanislav Alexandrovich, with your sharpness of judgment? Or just do not understand allegorical?

- Being the first is always an honor. But I wouldn't think ahead of time.

“But they don’t understand allegory. Why are fashionable musical children with their "dangerous" texts driven over?

- It's simple. Who was instructed to prevent the growth of extremist sentiments among young people? MIA. And if it is ordered, then it must be carried out. The power machine then needs to report. And in order to report, it is necessary to arrange some kind of pogroms of dangerous elements. Pogroms are difficult to arrange on the Internet. It is necessary to think. But offline they can. They ran into rappers, forgetting that there are a lot of influential people among rappers. Such as Basta and Husky, who are on a short footing with some members of the ruling elite. Most of the rappers are popular in the ruling elite, led by the undoubtedly great Oksimiron. As a result, influential figures turned out to be dissatisfied.

- By the way, about creative people. At first, the head of the Constitutional Court, Valery, signaled to us almost in Morse code about point changes in the Constitution. Then Dimitri. What are they talking about or when?

“They don't know themselves. After all, Vladimir Putin is not a strategist, but a tactician. If he needs targeted changes to stay in power after 2024 in his current or some other post, and power for Putin is control over the security forces, then these will be changes in the security forces. These edits will need to be done 1.5 - 2 years before the "X" hour. And there can be no strategic plan here in principle. No need to fuss and twitch ahead of time in these things. We will be told when needed. Today there is no practical value in understanding the start of these changes.

Will the economy be the trigger?

- Putin does not react to the economy in any way. From these problems, he completely pupated. If you want to make a devil's advocate out of me, then I'll tell you exactly what he thinks about the state of the country's economy. According to Putin, there is no such stable financial system as ours anywhere in the world, and if the leading rating agencies of the world did not depend on the pressure of the Washington Central Committee, Russia would have the highest credit ratings. After all, the state has practically no external debt. Our gold and foreign exchange reserves are approaching $500 billion. Tens of billions of dollars are in cash in the vaults of the Central Bank. That is, if tomorrow our enemies disconnect us from the American currency, then we have cash to pay off everyone who wants to take their dollars from banks. The country's budget is drawn up with a surplus. What kind of instability? And this despite the fact that all oil revenues over $40 per barrel are withdrawn to reserve funds. Here begins the belief that enough for us, and our children, and our grandchildren. This is how Putin thinks. For 19 years in power, he traveled a lot around the country, saw all of Russia, understood the Russian people well and to the end.

Only now he traveled around the country in an armored Mercedes, with motorcades, flew VIP helicopters, his own plane. At the same time, everywhere he was met by a crowd of enthusiastic supporters according to the order. Then meetings with obsequious party economic activists. That's how he studied the country. His belief system is the result of this teaching.

- Before the New Year, your political scientist colleague Valery Solovey again reminded about the term "State Council" as an alternative to the current system, where the president is the head of the country. Are we heading this way in 2019?

- As long as I can remember myself as a public commentator, and this is already 15 years old, the idea of ​​unification with Belarus, changing the function of the State Council and changing the function of the Security Council have been discussed for so long. All 15 years! I will say for the ten thousandth time: yes, it is possible. But what is the basic criterion for keeping Putin in power? What is power or lack thereof? I repeat, direct control over the security forces. He can only hold this position. Or leave completely. He does not need a position without such control. If Putin is the chairman of the State Council, then we monitor the reassignment of the security forces to the State Council. If everything goes as it is now, then the hour "X" is 2024. And if Putin really decides to leave, then this hour "X" will come earlier. The thought that it would be nice to get off someday slips in his words regularly.

- In the list of the main political events of 2019, where is the election of the head of Smolny? We have a gubernatorial election.

- On one of the main ones. Petersburg is a landmark region. But the pre-election configuration has not been formed there yet. Kiriyenko still has three months. And we will understand at the beginning of spring whether the Kremlin is making an unconditional stake on Alexander Beglov, or there will be at least parallel stakes. And if it becomes obvious that Beglov is not winning with any Makar (I'm not hinting at the speaker of your Legislative Assembly, Vyacheslav Makarov, I just had to say it), then they will bet on someone else who suits the authorities.

- Is Makarov not satisfied with the authorities? The most influential, some independent media.

- Vyacheslav Makarov is associated with what Georgy Sergeevich Poltavchenko was removed for. With excessive Orthodox mossy. I won't be surprised if it will be a person like Igor Artemiev. That is, someone from the status of St. Petersburg, who is already in the power structures.

- Status St. Petersburg Ksenia Sobchak is not an option?

- If she is nominated, then I will support her professionally. As far as I know, no decision has been made yet. This largely depends on the overall layout. It is clear that a significant question today is who is ready to represent the opposition in these elections? If all of a sudden all the oppositionists in St. Petersburg rush to support Oksana Dmitrieva, then you need to understand what the base of support for Ksenia Anatolyevna is. In my opinion, Ksenia Sobchak has very good chances to perform successfully. She can take second place for sure. And with great results. But the configuration of the project is not yet clear. Participating in order to lose loudly is not what she aspires to.

– This fight is still in the fog. There is no war. As for real wars. Will the old ones run out in 2019?

- The fourth world hybrid war, which has been going on since February 2014, will continue. Mercenaries, information wars and cyber attacks are here to stay.

Will new wars begin? Belarus represented by President Lukashenko. So they say: "Incorporate the country into another country."

– I draw your attention to the “Freudian slip” that Vladimir Putin made at a big press conference in December. He said that the population of Russia is 160 million people. In fact, it is less than 147. That is, I threw in 13 million. And 13 million is the combined population of Belarus and Northern Kazakhstan. Perhaps the idea of ​​​​attaching territories is wandering around somewhere on an unconscious level. But neither technically nor technologically it is impossible to do this.

It is clear that Alexander Lukashenko and Nursultan Nazarbayev will never agree to this. But the very spread of such rumors is extremely beneficial for Minsk. This will allow Lukashenka to receive additional benefits from the US and the EU. The more the West is frightened by the possibility of the annexation of Belarus, the sooner they, like Chip and Dale, will come to the aid of Alexander Grigoryevich.

- Here the question is, rather, in another. Who will outlive whom in the presidency. Putin - Lukashenko or vice versa?

- Alexander Grigorievich is not going to leave anywhere for sure. Not even hints. Putin has them. And then it's a matter of physical health. Unfortunately, I can't analyze it reliably. But both are hockey players. God bless everyone!

Everyone is preparing for sanctions. Banks are testing their shutdown. Imported software officials. What are we going to eat next year?

- You know, I am very unpretentious in food. My new book is coming out soon, which describes Belkovsky's consumer basket. All the goods included in it will remain with me in any case. I got ready too. The central element of my diet is Druzhba processed cheese.

- Have pity on yourself! It's full of fat!

- Looking at me, you will see that the traces of the harmful effects of food are all on me. At least that's why I won't get hurt. And the world around is no longer even going through globalization. And through globalization, when people are concerned about global problems, but not about their own state. The role of states as such is declining. Hierarchical systems give way to network ones. In this sense, the self-isolation of Russia, and this is self-isolation, will lead to complete degradation and decline. Putin's concept is quite clearly set out on paper by his assistant Vladislav Surkov in the article "The Loneliness of the Half-Breed", which was published last spring in the journal Russia in Global Affairs. It says that Russia has neither friends nor permanent partners. Russia is doomed to complete loneliness, it must be alpha loneliness, the loneliness of a winner. And we will win because, due to our inescapable stability, we will sit out everyone, wait and look over.

- Will the Democrats in the US Parliament not even leave us potatoes in January?

– Well, we didn’t leave potatoes for ourselves, because food imports are prohibited by Vladimir Putin. It was he who introduced counter-sanctions in the summer of 2014. And the fact that draconian acts can be adopted is likely. The most negative scenario is a ban on the purchase of Russian government debt, on the dollar transactions of Russian banks in the US and Russia's disconnection from SWIFT. This is quite possible in 2019.

- But then there will be no processed cheese "Friendship" left.

- Not! The plant "Karat" is working. True, it recently changed ownership, I don’t remember from whom to whom, but Druzhba processed cheese remains with us. In this sense, addiction to junk food in isolation is useful.

- BUTaswill we go further?

- First of all, our standard of living will deteriorate and the quality of life will deteriorate. There will be less and less access for Russian economic agents to capital markets, especially to technologies, and this will all hit us. The whole world is moving towards a complete victory over cancer and AIDS, and in our country newborns are being killed in maternity hospitals. With our medicine, with the high-tech sphere, there will be complete seams, this is a direct consequence of the isolation, which will affect all of us. And we, of course, can be glad that for the first time we are finally not rich and not influential and we do not have to leave the ranks of the controlling shareholders of Russian Aluminum, but, unfortunately, our joy will be somewhat superficial, since the general degradation of the Russian economy will hit us for all.

– Will the economy start doing politics in Russia in 2019?

Nikolai Nelyubin, especially for Fontanka.ru

Stanislav Belkovsky decided to register as a candidate for the presidency of the Russian Federation. What for? And also about the events taking place around Alexei Navalny. Hosted by Elena Rykovtseva. Correspondents of RS are in touch.

​Full video version of the program

Elena Rykovtseva: Stanislav Belkovsky is with us today. It used to be just a ship and a person, but now a candidate.

Stanislav Belkovsky: I have never been a steamboat, I am a conditional person, and I am not a candidate. I'm just a promoter.

Elena Rykovtseva: Candidate candidate. Well, we will, strictly in accordance with Russian law, name you as a presidential candidate.

Stanislav Belkovsky: In mathematics, this is called a derivative, I don’t remember whether it is the first or the second.

Elena Rykovtseva: And in the Russian political system, this is called arbitrary. Free program, free nominee.

Stanislav Belkovsky: In December, the short program begins, when you need to collect signatures, as in figure skating.

Elena Rykovtseva: That is, as long as everyone can be in your place, everyone can call themselves a candidate.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Moreover, my line of conduct in these elections is absolutely obvious. I don't need any resources, I don't need any means, I'm campaigning with accessible methods, setting out my program, which is more than serious, and contains several ideas that, in my opinion, are not only inaccessible to the understanding of other candidates, but cannot be voiced by them in their excessive conservatism. Even if they appeal to a youth audience, they are too old in brains to take these theses into service. In early December, I will openly ask the presidential administration to collect 300,000 signatures for me, because, in my opinion, this is in the interests of the state. The state is interested in diversity in the elections, in creating intrigue, in ensuring that representatives of different views are represented, then it costs nothing for the presidential administration to give me 300,000 signatures and allow me to register.

Elena Rykovtseva: I make a counter proposal: first, we, the voters, sign a petition of one hundred thousand signatures so that the presidential administration collects 300,000 signatures, thereby forcing it to do so. Because suddenly she refuses you? Why are you sure it won't fail?

Stanislav Belkovsky: I'm not sure, but then I'll go to the next election.

Elena Rykovtseva: Do you agree that we collect signatures?

Stanislav Belkovsky: I totally agree.

Elena Rykovtseva: It's good to put pressure on the administration to start collecting signatures for you.

Stanislav Belkovsky: There is no need to put pressure on the administration, it seems to me that one gentle look will be enough for the administration. I'm still a supporter of the signature collection petition.

Elena Rykovtseva: They do not understand tenderness, they need to be pressured. Ivan Voronin, our special correspondent, is in touch with us. He monitors the events taking place with Alexei Navalny, whom the police invited early this morning to visit, said that you are not going to any Nizhny Novgorod, because you are engaged in calls for unauthorized rallies, if you please follow us instead of going to Lower to the rally, and give an explanation. What happened next?

Ivan Voronin: Alexei Navalny was detained at 10 am and was taken to the police department in the Danilovsky district of the capital. Within three hours, he was to be charged with what exactly he violated, why he was detained, what he should do next. Three hours later, no charges had been filed, and his lawyer filed a statement to that effect. However, it is already the tenth hour of Alexei Navalny's detention, he is still in the police department. The lawyers went outside three times, walked along the fence, but did not give any comments, because it is not known. Navalny is just sitting there waiting for what will happen to him next. In this regard, the scenario, according to which the head of Volkov's headquarters in Nizhny Novgorod was left at the police station for the night, was much more dynamic. Alexei Navalny is still awaiting his fate in the police department.

Elena Rykovtseva: Does that mean there is no trial yet?

Ivan Voronin: Not planned yet. Moreover, all courts have already closed their work.

Elena Rykovtseva: Let's start with this because this event is happening right now. A man traveled around the country with rallies.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Most of them were authorized.

Elena Rykovtseva: People gathered, students, schoolchildren, supported him. All of a sudden, hello, please, Nizhny Novgorod is some kind of bug. What is it?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Still, intrigue needs to be maintained in the campaign, today, it seems to me, it is supported in full.

Elena Rykovtseva: So that we don't get bored.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Certainly. And why should we be bored, agree?

Elena Rykovtseva: Are you just straight up like this?

Stanislav Belkovsky: No, I didn't mean anything like what you're thinking now.

Elena Rykovtseva: I thought about what you didn't mean?

Stanislav Belkovsky: The courts are not ready to consider this case, it is clear that they do not work on Saturday and Sunday. Therefore, I hope that Alexei Anatolyevich will now be released and go home.

Elena Rykovtseva: Right tonight. I hope that Leonid Volkov, the head of the election headquarters, who is now in Nizhny Novgorod, will be in touch with us.

Stanislav Belkovsky: You remember how a sanctioned rally on Sakharov Avenue a few months ago in Moscow turned into an unsanctioned rally on Tverskaya. Why did it happen so? Because Aleksey Anatolyevich was not sure about his attendance at the authorized rally. And the appearance at an unsanctioned rally is a very conditional thing. Firstly, it is impossible to evaluate it, and secondly, no matter how small it may be, it can be justified by the fact that the event was unsanctioned, people got scared, that is, accuse the authorities of reducing turnout.

Elena Rykovtseva: In this situation, it was a strange decision that was...

Stanislav Belkovsky: ...quite understandable.

Elena Rykovtseva: It was explained a little strange, that we did not assemble the equipment, we have something else. But it was still his idea. When in this way interest in the election campaign is fueled by law enforcement agencies, this is already a conspiracy, this is no longer his initiative.

Stanislav Belkovsky: We have no reason to believe that there is any kind of collusion, or rather, we have no reason to assert this.

Elena Rykovtseva: You just said that the police have whipped up interest in his campaign. In fact, you said it.

Stanislav Belkovsky: You never know who whipped something up. Nicholas II whipped up interest in the February Revolution and in his own abdication - this does not mean that he was interested in this kind of development of events, in this scenario. Of course not. Simply, according to Belkovsky's law, at a certain stage of degradation, the system begins to make decisions that are contrary to its vital interests. Here, too, such events cannot be ruled out. But if earlier we observed Alexei Navalny's strategy aimed at destroying all other oppositionists and securing him in the niche of a single and uncontested leader of the opposition, this task is almost solved. True, Dmitry Gudkov somehow turned up with his list in the municipal elections in Moscow, which somewhat spoiled the raspberries, because these elections were quite successful for the opposition, I had to remember Gudkov and that he exists. Then, still unexpectedly, the potential nomination of Ksenia Anatolyevna Sobchak also prompted Alexei Navalny to make rather harsh statements and statements by both him and key representatives of his cloaca that if Sobchak is nominated, then this is a disaster and a complete discredit of the elections. That is, if Sobchak is not nominated, then this is not a disaster and not discrediting the elections, if Putin, Mironov, Zyuganov and Zhirinovsky are in the elections, this is all fine, only Sobchak discredits the elections in full. Now we see pressure on the Kremlin to register Alexei Anatolyevich - this is clearly felt.

Elena Rykovtseva: Whose?

Stanislav Belkovsky: pressure from him. It is unlikely that this pressure had any chance of success if this concept was not shared by certain people in power.

Elena Rykovtseva: I return to the very beginning, to my first question, when I asked what caused such forceful actions against Alexei Navalny in Nizhny Novgorod, you nevertheless said in order to whip up interest. But it is not the side of Alexei Navalny that whips up interest, but still the authorities with their actions.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Therefore, I do not rule out that the registration of Alexei Navalny is being prepared. Because it is easier for him to give 20% of the vote in the presidential election, and this is quite possible, based on the level of protest moods in the regions of Russia, than to completely kill the intrigue of the elections.

Elena Rykovtseva: Now I propose to simply listen to people, we asked who could really compete with Vladimir Putin. Because you, probably, you won’t say to yourself that you can make a real one, honestly?

Stanislav Belkovsky: On an intellectual level, I can, on an electoral level, no.

Elena Rykovtseva: And we asked at the electoral, who can really compete with him.

​Elena Rykovtseva: These are, in my opinion, absolutely wonderful answers. We will discuss them a little later.

Stanislav Belkovsky: They quite realistically reflect the cut of public opinion. It doesn't take a lot of research on VTsIOM or the Levada Center to get the same result that Radio Liberty got right now, without leaving the ticket office, on the Garden Ring, opposite one of Moscow's scariest buildings, but it's not the Lubyanka this time .

Elena Rykovtseva: There is also a funny monument. I will add two responses from our twitter, both regarding our guest today Stanislav Belkovsky, which only he can.

Stanislav Belkovsky: I agree with this in principle.

Elena Rykovtseva: Sometimes harmony reigns in the world, Twitter and Belkovsky.

Stanislav Belkovsky: It's not harmony, it's more diversity.

Elena Rykovtseva: I mean, twitter agrees with your decision that you can be a nominee candidate.

Stanislav Belkovsky: To talk about the fact that there is no one on the one hand except Vladimir Putin, on the other hand Alexei Navalny, it seems to me that it contradicts the fundamental structure of the Russian Federation. Everyone can be president, everyone can rise from their little world of apartments, as Vladimir Vladimirovich said, but not Putin, but Mayakovsky, from the kitchen sofa, everyone can present what he has, I mean not in material terms, and understand that a citizen has the right to be president. Modern European politics presents a lot of such examples, and world politics presents hundreds and thousands of examples of how people, completely separated by a concrete or stone wall from the elite choice, became leaders.

Elena Rykovtseva: Sergei Anisimov, our correspondent in Nizhny Novgorod, is in touch with us. We are asking you how the very event, the rally, the mass action that Alexei Navalny called for went. He said that they were shutting me down, they wouldn’t let me into Nizhny Novgorod, but you were leaving, I didn’t have to be there, this is not a concert - I’m already adding this on my own - where the performer fell ill and it is canceled. This is a rally at which we must express our will, our attitude to power. Sergei, how many people came to express their will, how did it look today?

Sergey Anisimov: About a thousand people came to express their will, maybe a little more. But the fact is that there were big obstacles. You probably know that the authorities have already organized the Festival of Culture, Sports and Tourism. And this became known only yesterday. It rained all day, people danced, sang, jumped, played shooting and various sports games all day long. In the evening, Navalny's supporters came, they did not hold a rally, they organized a procession around the square. This is a procession with the slogans "Freedom to Navalny", "Navalny in Nizhny". There were detentions, but they were before that at the headquarters, at the exit from the headquarters. The rally did not become an unsanctioned rally - it was a procession, and, as you know, we are not detained for a procession.

Elena Rykovtseva: If people go peacefully, then maybe not. We see how they dismantled the stage in Nizhny. In principle, there was permission initially received. It was withdrawn, this permission, how was it formally done?

Sergey Anisimov: This is an old tactic. First, permission is given, and then it turns out that other people rented this site in advance. First permission is given, then it is withdrawn. The fact is that when Navalny's supporters walked around the square, loud music played there, they were not heard, they tried to drown them out in this way.

Elena Rykovtseva: I understand correctly that first they gave permission, then they replayed, they gave permission to another event, so they dismantled the stage to give space to this event. All this is terribly reminiscent of June 12, although not quite like that, when Navalny's rally went along with a sanctioned celebration, a carnival on the occasion of June 12, so it turns out?

Sergey Anisimov: We had very important rallies. We had an unsanctioned rally on March 26, where there were a lot of arrests. Then there was a rally on June 12, it was agreed upon, and it passed without any excesses.

Elena Rykovtseva: In Moscow, there was Navalny's unauthorized procession on Tverskaya, which mixed with the authorized carnival party on the occasion of June 12th. You, on the contrary, had Navalny's primary rally on this square, which was replaced by a less legitimate one, because he was second in line and suddenly became the main one, this sports and health carnival.

Sergey Anisimov: "Positive Bottom" it's called.

Elena Rykovtseva: It is necessary to give this election the name "positive Lower".

Sergey Anisimov: It seems to me that the inconsistency of the authorities is due to the fact that a new governor has come to us, yesterday a new governor, Gleb Nikitin, was introduced. The Nizhny Novgorod administration of the city, not the region, wanted to show in this way that it controls the process.

Elena Rykovtseva: I think that if you agree with this version that the new governor did not want to poison his life with all sorts of stupid rallies, of course, your government does not decide such things, especially since Navalny was detained in Moscow. Of course, he could turn to the Kremlin administration, which had just appointed him, and say that guys, don't spoil my holiday, let's frolic next time with your rallies. They helped him with the Moscow police, they helped him with the Nizhny Novgorod police. Now Leonid Volkov cannot get in touch with us, apparently, he was planted so tightly that he would not even take part in a physical education event.

Sergey Anisimov: Probably so. This is the first time I see such a rally: loud music is blaring, the sports festival is on. Probably the same as in Moscow, the officially recognized event merged with the unofficial one. Such a strange symbiosis turned out, as it seems to me.

Elena Rykovtseva: Let's make the slogan of your election campaign, you need to somehow attach it to "Positive Lower".

Stanislav Belkovsky: No, God forbid. "Positive Bottom", "Negative Top" - these are some elements of BDSM in this in everything. Let this remain the slogan of any other campaign, but not mine.

Elena Rykovtseva: I keep thinking about how to attach it so that it goes to the people.

Stanislav Belkovsky: It has already settled in by itself. Those people who did this already deserve appropriate awards from the Kremlin, not only in Moscow, but also in Nizhny Novgorod.

Elena Rykovtseva: That is, it may be that they did not want to poison the life of a newcomer. The question is what will happen next with St. Petersburg. In fact, today he is officially charged with exactly what he is doing with St. Petersburg: if we do not receive official permission, come to the Field of Mars or to the Palace, but we will carry it out, regardless of the permission. Here he is declaring such a position today - regardless of permission, go out.

Stanislav Belkovsky: So what?

Elena Rykovtseva: Will they allow?

Stanislav Belkovsky: The administration of St. Petersburg has already made it clear that it will not allow it. Another thing is that it is somehow necessary to convert all these gathered people into another event. Apparently, this tactic will be taken up again. But this is of no fundamental importance, because it is very important for Alexei Navalny to show that people are still coming out, no matter how many, that headquarters are being created, and that he himself is the only presidential candidate from the opposition, no matter what anyone says. The main argument is that anyone who is not for Navalny is for Putin, and thus it is further cultivated. An argument with which I do not fully agree.

Elena Rykovtseva: We turn to this topic, because it needs to be dealt with a little more in detail, I think. Yesterday I heard you on the Dozhd TV channel, where you actually announced your decision.

Stanislav Belkovsky: More about your desire.

Elena Rykovtseva: You decided to wish, about your decision to wish to become a candidate for candidates.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Or the desire to kill someone.

Elena Rykovtseva: No, you didn't say that, you're talking too much about yourself. You said that Alexander Nevzorov made a decision, like you, only different, to head the campaign headquarters of Ksenia Sobchak.

Stanislav Belkovsky: No, I said to lead a group of confidants of Ksenia Anatolyevna Sobchak in St. Petersburg, but, by the way, I joked a little, I do not have final information on this topic. I know that Alexander Glebovich Nevzorov has a very positive attitude towards Ksenia Anatolyevna Sobchak, and it is quite possible that he will support her in one form or another, I admit it.

Elena Rykovtseva: How do you predict this collision further? You have already begun to talk about this, which is quite harsh and evil, I would even say not evil, but viciously. Alexei Navalny reacted to this, she did not even announce that she was coming, but he reacted quite harshly to her doubts.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Not even on her doubts, but on leaks that she can go. This means he takes her seriously as a competitor. In his place, if I were his adviser, fortunately I am not, I would advise him to remain silent in this situation. This means that he is really afraid, he thinks that the electorate that he has already reserved and reserved for himself can support Ksenia Anatolyevna, and most importantly, the key element of leverage on the Kremlin is disappearing in order to register Alexei Navalny as a presidential candidate. Since it is already obvious to me that the stage of monopolization, the status of a single and uncontested leader of the opposition, has been passed for Alexei Navalny, despite even Gudkov’s accidental crawling away from Gudkov’s list, he now explains that Gudkov did not achieve anything, he rather lost, and if something and achieved, it was only thanks to Navalny and his efforts of previous years, starting with the election of the mayor of Moscow in 2013 and ending with projects like "Seagulls" and "He is not Dimon to you", which liberated the minds of Muscovites, thereby giving them the opportunity to come and vote for alternative candidates. No, Navalny goes further, and now his task is to convince the Kremlin that his registration with a possible 20-30% is the only and main way to ensure the legitimacy of the 2018 presidential election, just like it was in the Moscow 2013 elections with Sergei Sobyanin.

Elena Rykovtseva: That is, believing in this design that he will achieve his goal.

Stanislav Belkovsky: And here is Ksenia Sobchak, who can play the same role, I don’t know, with 20% or 10%, but nevertheless, she is in the same niche, the solution of this problem becomes much more difficult for Alexei Navalny. It is precisely with this that his aggressive reaction is connected not even to the nomination of Ksenia Sobchak, who has not yet been in sight, but to leaks about the possibility of nomination.

Elena Rykovtseva: Not only is she in the same niche, plus she takes the votes of those who are tired of voting for Zhirik for clown reasons, plus she has a show business support group, which is very popular in the Russian Federation. Vanya Urgant, I think, will do her a gigantic service if she goes, if he is allowed, and he is allowed, if she is allowed, to go with her. This is serious business.

Stanislav Belkovsky: And then, she has independent connections with various oligarchs who can finance her campaign even without the direct participation of the Kremlin.

Elena Rykovtseva: This is when they are together. Again, a reasonable, sensible person, Alexei Anatolyevich understands that this may not happen, that he will participate in this election campaign as a candidate, a real candidate. And then why shouldn't she go, as Khakamada did, despite the fact that she was considered to undermine the concept of the liberal boycott of elections: why create real competition for him, why make them real. Do you remember all this with Khakamada?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Yes, I remember, of course, 2004.

Elena Rykovtseva: It will be the same kind of story. But after all, he does not incriminate her with this, because if he goes, he will actually be the same Khakamada. If he does not go, then what is her crime against him?

Stanislav Belkovsky: And the crime is that it demonopolizes Navalny, deprives him of the status of the single and only oppositionist in Russia, which cannot be allowed. Because if Alexei Anatolyevich is not registered, then most likely he will call for spoiling the ballots, writing him on these ballots, and this is completely different from voting for Ksenia Sobchak or someone else.

Elena Rykovtseva: Or call for a boycott of the elections if he is not there.

Stanislav Belkovsky: In what form to boycott. He will call for a boycott of the elections in the form of defaced ballots, writing his name. If Navalny's name appears on a few percent of the ballots, this will allow us to judge that some people perceive these elections as illegitimate for the sole reason that Alexei Anatolyevich Navalny is not on them as a candidate for the highest state post.

Elena Rykovtseva: He will not call them to this, because any damage is a turnout. You came to spoil - you increased the turnout.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Turnout for him is acceptable if it attracts additional increased interest in his brand.

Elena Rykovtseva: Still, it seems to me that any candidate who did not get into this campaign is interested in not only not being legitimate ...

Stanislav Belkovsky: Any elections where it is not present are illegitimate.

Elena Rykovtseva: It would be better if there were fewer people there, I will hold on to it, which, most likely, he will call for a boycott.

Stanislav Belkovsky: In what forms to boycott - this is a question.

Elena Rykovtseva: He will think about this later, when he is not allowed to participate in these elections, if he is not allowed to. Konstantin from Israel, hello.

Listener: I have a question for Mr. Belkovsky. I didn't quite get it, if he says no, I won't ask the question. Did I understand correctly that he was going to run for the presidency of Russia?

Stanislav Belkovsky: You got it almost right. I am considering this possibility. I have formed my presidential program, which can be used by any other candidates too. Unlike Alexei Anatolyevich Navalny, I am ready to support anyone who will be registered as some kind of real alternative in the 2018 elections. But I'm waiting until the beginning of December and I'm asking the presidential administration to officially give me signatures, 300,000, which are required by law. If the presidential administration gives me signatures, because I have no other way to legally collect them, I have neither money, nor legal or administrative resources, then I can be registered, if the presidential administration does not give them to me, then I, with all my program provisions and other opportunities to support someone else who will be in the elections, but, of course, not Vladimir Putin and not a candidate from the systemic opposition. My goal is to show that any layman, any small person like me, can also run for president. We do not need a new celestial instead of Vladimir Putin, and before that Boris Yeltsin, and before that, aging or not aging, like Mikhail Gorbachev, boss of the Central Committee of the CPSU. I have the right to this, according to the constitution, I am ready to use it. My program will be published in full in the coming days in fairly popular media, you can familiarize yourself with it. As far as I am familiar with the programs or draft programs of other candidates, you will read a lot of new and interesting things there, which really opens up opportunities for solving serious problems in Russia, including in the foreign policy arena, primarily the problem of sanctions.

Elena Rykovtseva: And what is a candidate from the systemic opposition, whom you will not support?

Stanislav Belkovsky: This is a candidate from the Liberal Democratic Party, the Communist Party and "Fair Russia". The systemic opposition is the opposition represented in the State Duma, the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

Elena Rykovtseva: Even with the word "systemic" it sounds strange, Zyuganov's opposition, Zhirinovsky's opposition.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Any opposition represented in the political system and legitimized through it is a systemic opposition.

Elena Rykovtseva: It is even strange that you make a reservation that you will not support them. It is obvious that you will not support. Yabloko is a non-systemic opposition, since it is not represented in the State Duma, do you exclude such a support option for yourself?

Stanislav Belkovsky: No, I think if Grigory Yavlinsky is the candidate, then I will rule it out. I still think that there should be a change of generations in the opposition, and in this sense, Grigory Yavlinsky, with all due respect to him, differs poorly from the previously mentioned gentlemen Zyuganov, Zhirinovsky and Mironov.

Elena Rykovtseva: If you are not given the opportunity to collect 300 thousand.

Stanislav Belkovsky: It’s not possible to raise 300 thousand, I don’t apply for them, I don’t have such opportunities, I ask you to simply bring these 300 thousand to my house if the presidential administration, from the point of view of the state’s interests, wants me to register.

Elena Rykovtseva: They will not bring, of course, to the house. They can help you with resources, headquarters.

Stanislav Belkovsky: I don't need any headquarters, I need 300,000 signatures, not a headquarters.

Elena Rykovtseva: Well, they will hire a person who will bring them to their home, they will definitely not bring them to your home.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Okay, I'll drive up to him, it's okay.

Elena Rykovtseva: Ilya from Tula, hello.

Listener: In your election program, do you plan to include an item on large-scale de-Sovietization in Russia?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Yes, definitely. I insist that Vladimir Ilyich Lenin be buried as soon as possible at the Volkovo Cemetery in St. Petersburg, as he himself wanted, thereby turning the mausoleum simply into a museum object, and that the use of the brand "Stalin " in current politics in the same way that Hitler is banned in Germany. I would not say that this is de-Sovietization in its purest form, since the ideology of the Soviet government also carried a lot of positive things. But the symbols of the totalitarian regime that existed in Russia from 1917 to the end of the 1980s conditionally, yes, of course, should be requisitioned or banned.

Elena Rykovtseva: Since Ilya called, I did not finish. For example, you did not receive a house or a house from the one you appointed, is Ksenia Sobchak the candidate you support?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Yes, I am ready to fully support. Because I consider her to be a rather talented politician who is capable, if not of radically changing the scheme, the intrigue of the elections, then at least introducing a certain variety into it on the basis of some ideological theses that are close to me, partially, perhaps not close.

Elena Rykovtseva: That is, you are still in favor of making these elections diverse, with intrigue?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Yes, but I am against leaderism in any of its new manifestations and variations, so I do not support Alexei Anatolyevich, even if he is registered.

Elena Rykovtseva: I am now asking about elections without him. In this situation, are you still in favor of making them more interesting? What for?

Stanislav Belkovsky: I want them to be more interesting.

Elena Rykovtseva: And why, if the result is known?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Because already today it is necessary to form a wide circle of people who, after Vladimir Putin’s departure from power for one reason or another, in one form or another, and every person is mortal, as the well-known Russian political strategist said, is suddenly mortal, so that this circle of people is already known . In order not to give the impression that there is only either Putin or Navalny, no one else, so that on the one hand the National Guard and the entire Kremlin army stand as a wall, they said that no one except Putin is possible, because Putin is Russia, and on the other hand there was somewhat, a little less numerous, but a project of the progressive public, which says the same thing and in almost the same words, but about Navalny, without even noticing the absolute conceptual identity of the two doctrines.

Elena Rykovtseva: I realized. I would like us to look at some of Vladimir Putin's latest actions, he is also a candidate in this election after all.

Stanislav Belkovsky: He is still the current president of Russia, apparently, he will remain so, so we are still interested in him.

Elena Rykovtseva: In short, we'll talk a little about him after all. But I will finish about the elections, the question is not about your participation, but about your attitude to the elections. That is, you think that they are useful for Russia, even if the result is known for a long time, it will be the same.

Stanislav Belkovsky: They are useful insofar as new faces may appear there with new programs, with new doctrines, with a new language, and it will become clear that the Russian people have not yet died out to such an extent that it is necessary to choose between Putin and Navalny, there is no more choice.

Elena Rykovtseva: This requires elections, they are still needed.

Stanislav Belkovsky: They are needed, although their result is clear.

Elena Rykovtseva: And let them be alive, let them be diverse. It is very interesting. Vladimir Putin this time engaged in such real politics. He has not cursed for a long time, let's see how Vladimir Putin scolded his Minister of Transport.

(See the video in the video version of the broadcast)

Elena Rykovtseva: It is very interesting that the camera stopped at Medvedev.

Stanislav Belkovsky: You see how delicately Vladimir Vladimirovich uses Dmitry Anatolyevich, he does not humiliate him, but emphasizes that no important decisions of this type and plan can be made without the prime minister.

Elena Rykovtseva: But when he scolded the minister, the camera was all the time on Dmitry Anatolyevich.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Dmitry Anatolyevich was rather gloomy. But Maxim Sokolov also had it, and for Maxim Sokolov, one thing is important now that he is a candidate for the post of governor of St. Petersburg instead of Georgy Poltavchenko, for him, of course, any incomplete official compliance is a black ball.

Elena Rykovtseva: I wonder what he said and did, today on all Kremlin, non-Kremlin websites, a document was posted, a presidential decree on disciplinary action. He did not even instruct Dmitry Anatolyevich to scold him in writing, but he did it himself.

Stanislav Belkovsky: That's right, because Vladimir Putin is putting things in order. And tomorrow the calls about the mining of objects will stop, when they stop, we will understand who put things in order on the eve of the 2018 elections and why the calls themselves were actually needed.

Elena Rykovtseva: So you want to say that these calls also have a cycle? This is probably December, when registration ends, there will be critical days.

Stanislav Belkovsky: "When you feel confident," remember such advertising when Vladimir Putin restores order in the country.

Elena Rykovtseva: As soon as he gets the label "candidate number one", he starts his election campaign, everything straightens out in the country.

Stanislav Belkovsky: He entered it on December 9, 1999, and since then has never stopped when he moves on to a new round of this election campaign.

Elena Rykovtseva: That is, he respects formalities.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Vladimir Putin is a person with the psychology of a lawyer, on the one hand, since he is a graduate of the law faculty of the Leningrad State University named after Zhdanov, on the other hand, he was immersed in the gangster Petersburg of the early 90s, and there are no people with more formal thinking than bandits, what is said in many jokes about bandits, such as when the trunk of the 600th Mercedes is opened, they find a victim with a soldering iron in one place, then the bandit who was the passenger of this car says: but look, the last will of the deceased . Therefore, Vladimir Vladimirovich has the last will of the deceased for everything, all decisions must be formalized to the utmost in accordance with the constitution, federal legislation, norms and the spirit of law.

Elena Rykovtseva: And why did you decide that he would move Sokolov to Peter?

Stanislav Belkovsky: This is the idea of ​​Valentina Ivanovna Matvienko, the former governor of St. Petersburg, and now the speaker of the Federation Council. But who will be is still unknown. There is an alternative doctrine that Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev, an accomplice in disciplinary action, will just become the governor of St. Petersburg. Then, if Putin decides to return governors and speakers of legislative assemblies to the Federation Council, changing the order that was introduced back in 2000, simply because neither governors nor speakers of legislative assemblies today are independent political figures, ready and able to interfere with the Kremlin, then Dmitry Anatolyevich can come to the Federation Council as a governor and a senator at the same time and head it, thereby becoming a third person from the second person.

Elena Rykovtseva: All this cannot be - this is too much humiliation for Dmitry Anatolyevich, he did not deserve it.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Of course, I have never been either a president, or a prime minister, or a big boss, but as an external observer and student of world history, it seems to me that there can be no greater humiliation than moving from the presidency anywhere. Therefore, in the psychological sense, Dmitry Anatolyevich has nothing to lose. I remember the expression of relief that was on his face on September 24, 2011 at the congress of United Russia, when, after the announcement that Putin was running for president again, Medvedev said - I am ready to work in the government.

Elena Rykovtseva: I do not believe in any relief, I think for him it was an absolutely human drama, he went through it hard, maybe only sharing it with his wife.

Stanislav Belkovsky: It doesn't contradict one another, it was a drama, but the moment it was said and said, it ceased to hold in himself, absolute relief was written on his face.

Elena Rykovtseva: Yes, I understand that everything was too hard and that's over.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Every tragedy has its ending; there can be no tragedy without an ending. Recently they were looking for a host for the First Channel program "Wait for me", they told us in the gossip that they even terminated the contract for the production of this program with the VID television company, because they could not find a host. Here I proposed a specific concept of the leader of "Wait for me", in accordance with Beckett's play "Waiting for Godot", that the heroes gather and wait for the leader, but he never comes. Every true tragedy must have an ending.

Elena Rykovtseva: Either sur or final. Sergey from Tugolesskiy Bor, hello.

Listener: From broadcast to broadcast, the word "detained" is heard more and more often. And then Belkovsky decided to run for president. Actual question: this word can touch him too. I wonder what you know about the mood among the security forces? That is, if possible, without banter.

Stanislav Belkovsky: The mood among the security forces is determined by the political leadership, in this sense, the security forces do not have any separate political moods, who to love, who not to love. Whoever they are told to love, they will love. I have already said that I am waiting for signatures from the presidential administration, I will not be able to run without these signatures. I myself am a harmless person, I hope that they will not detain me. But even if they detain me, thanks to the prison diet, I will be able to lose weight, and this is my old dream. Also, you know that I have long called for the commercialization of house arrest. However, now it will be regarded as a banter, so I stop answering the question.

Elena Rykovtseva: Sergei meant, as far as I understand, their mood on the eve of the elections, whether they support the government as it might seem.

Stanislav Belkovsky: They are waiting for a signal from the authorities. The main mood of the security forces is to keep their grain places. Therefore, who to detain, who not to detain depends on the political leadership, and not on the security forces. In addition, no matter what anyone claims about the power mafia in our country, it just so happened, starting from imperial times, especially from the time of Comrade Stalin, who destroyed the military and general elite in uniform with all means available to him, that all the security forces are guided by politicians , and not vice versa. That is, this is not Turkey, not Latin America, there is no separate caste of security forces that would make political decisions and implement them without the knowledge of some political superstructure, the very top, the rulers of the political class.

Elena Rykovtseva: If the country is stable enough in terms of security, law and order, you say that the threats will stop at the wave of the hand, then it is not very clear why to escalate the situation. That is, it is absolutely artificial, so that there is something to sort out later in December?

Stanislav Belkovsky: On this, Putin came to power in 1999. In the beginning, there were explosions of houses in Moscow, which motivated the second Chechen war. Then Putin's rating was within 5%. Then the second Chechen war began, during which the rating increased from 5 to 52%. According to one of the versions, which deserves, if not trust, then attention, the postponement of the presidential elections in 2000 from June to March was due to the fact that these 52% would not be spilled, so that those same "black swans" would not occur, due to which the then inexperienced politician Vladimir Putin would have lost his rating and would not have won in the first round, since the victory in the first round was absolutely fundamental, it was impossible in any case, from the point of view of the Kremlin and the presidential administration, to allow any politician to spar - single combat with the main candidate. Therefore, the same scenario is always reproduced, which has already been successful: create a threat, then neutralize it.

Elena Rykovtseva: Why, in this case, such a total, incredible simple cleansing of the governor's field, if everything is in their own hands?

Stanislav Belkovsky: The general philosophy of the cleansing is quite understandable - to get rid of the mastodons who remember the times when Putin was not a leader.

Elena Rykovtseva: So he not only gets rid of them, he gets rid of everyone.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Not from everyone, mostly from powerful old men.

Elena Rykovtseva: Is it possible to call a Nenets like that?

Stanislav Belkovsky: No, the Nenets cannot be named. In this case, this can be explained by the lobbying of certain groups. The most ridiculous situation, of course, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, where they removed Viktor Tolokonsky, who was accidentally appointed three years ago, who was about to retire, he was to be replaced by a young technocrat Mikhail Kotyukov, a representative of the group of Alexander Khloponin, a former governor, Alexander Khloponin’s former deputy for economy and finance, when Alexander Gennadievich served as the head of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, now he is the head of the Federal Agency for Scientific Organizations. As we learned today, it will not be the young Kotyukov at all, but the highly experienced 63-year-old Alexander Uss, who has been the speaker of the legislative assembly for almost 20 years. And here it must be said that Alexander Uss is connected by deep threads with many key figures in the establishment of both the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the federal one. In the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the figure closest to him is Anatoly Petrovich Bykov, a respected businessman who informally controlled the legislature for many years and was behind the nomination of Uss for governor even after the death of former head of the region Alexander Lebed in 2002. Then there was a confrontation between Uss and Khloponin, which was won by Khloponin. Now Khloponin would rather lose a new round of this confrontation. But there are other supporters of this doctrine, we know that the key enterprises of the Krasnoyarsk Territory are aluminum plants on the one hand, Norilsk Nickel on the other. At one time, the fate of Norilsk Nickel was entrusted to regulate Roman Abramovich, the most famous Russian oligarch, a close friend of Vladimir Putin. I do not rule out that his position also played a role. In addition, Alexander Uss is a member of the board and head of the Siberian branch of a very influential organization, about which we still hear little, but maybe in the coming weeks, months and years we will hear much more, it is called the Russian Bar Association. It was created by Putin and Medvedev in 2009 and features highly influential lawyers ranging from Mikhail Barshchevsky, the government's representative in the Constitutional Courts, to Pavel Krasheninnikov, head of the Duma Committee on State Building and Legislation, if I don't confuse the exact title, if I'm confused, I'm sorry. All this played a role in the fate of Uss. Therefore, in addition to the general philosophy of rejuvenation, there is also a specific struggle between clans and groups of influence, the very horizontal of power that exists today in Russia despite the propaganda myth about the vertical of power.

Elena Rykovtseva: Then it is not clear in which case it wins, you said, first for rejuvenation, then it turns out that the mastodon is coming, in which case the theory of the mastodon wins.

Stanislav Belkovsky: A mastodon is coming because he has consolidated a controlling stake in the support of the regional elites (Anatoly Bykov) and very important representatives of the federal elites (Roman Abramovich plus the Russian Bar Association). You can’t argue against this, whether you are a mastodon or a young technocrat.

Elena Rykovtseva: Vladislav from Krasnodar, hello.

Listener: What exactly should Alexei Navalny change in himself and his election campaign in order for you to vote for him?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Thank you for the question, it is very wise, I am pleased to answer it. In general, I am pleased to answer any questions, but especially wise ones separately. I'm afraid this is no longer possible. Alexei Navalny is shaped as a person, he is not a little boy, he is clearly going to be a leader, he is going to be a young version of Vladimir Putin, he will not give up on this, he does not need power in order to get away from it. As the British king Edward the Seventh, who abdicated the throne for the sake of marriage with a divorced American, said in response to the corresponding sacramental question: only very noble people can understand that abdicating the throne is, in its own way, much more significant from the point of view of history than accepting the throne . This philosophy is not close to Alexei Navalny, I am sure that he will not give up on this. But if, of course, Alexei Anatolyevich supports the idea of ​​a parliamentary republic and his own departure from power in a couple of years, when the political system of Russia will be radically rebuilt in accordance with my ideals and guidelines, and these are not only my ideals and guidelines - these are the ideals and guidelines of all opposition candidates other than himself, then I am ready to support him. But I do not think that he needs my support, rather, it is even harmful to him, so I will not impose it on him.

Elena Rykovtseva: Let's theoretically imagine that any candidate can become president, it happens.

Stanislav Belkovsky: When Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin left the Moscow city committee, could anyone imagine that in three and a half years he would become the ruler of Russia?

Elena Rykovtseva: Never. So any candidate with the same success can become a leader. You cannot insure against this.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Therefore, some kind of coalition agreement of opposition candidates is needed, which would involve a transition to parliamentary democracy in the first two years from the moment a new president is elected.

Elena Rykovtseva: Can't do without it?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Not at all. Faith in a good king must be buried. The political transformation of Russia, the change of milestones is, first of all, the rejection of the total Russian political consciousness. It has a lot of elements, I wrote a lot about it, I won't repeat myself now.

Elena Rykovtseva: Total or totalitarian?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Total, from which totalitarianism follows. The main element of total consciousness is understanding that, in the perception of your like-minded person as a good person, that is, a mixture of political and moral criteria, which should not be allowed. When a person says what you like to hear, he is good - this is the most important element of total consciousness. This is how leaders are born, this is how kings are born.

Elena Rykovtseva: You don't allow a president not a leader for Russia? Is it impossible in Russia?

Stanislav Belkovsky: It is necessary to break the total consciousness. In order to break the total consciousness from the very top of power, where its sacred center, the center of power, is still located, it must be declared that Russia will never again be a monarchy, as it is today, an absolute monarchy, moreover, inherited, because the president only concentrated in his hands all the powers of the three branches of government, legislative, executive and judicial, de facto, of course, according to the constitution de jure this is not the case, but also appointing successors to himself, which means that this is an ordinary absolute monarchy. After all, since the time of Paul I it has not been established that the biological son of the previous monarch should be the successor, it can be anyone.

Elena Rykovtseva: You absolutely do not believe that in Russia it cannot be different, just like that? If the president, then the monarch, if the monarch, then the successor, and so on.

Stanislav Belkovsky: It may be different in Russia if Russia moves to a parliamentary form of government, perhaps in the format of a constitutional monarchy, such as exists in most European countries from Sweden to Spain, which has shown itself to be the most effective form of modern European parliamentary democracy, being nominally monarchy. By the way, do you know what form of government is nominally in Great Britain? Absolute monarchy. The UK does not have a constitution, the prime minister is appointed by the monarch alone. Only for some reason he always appoints, by a strange coincidence, the leader of the party that won the election as prime minister. But this is Great Britain, a country where the power of political tradition is great, where the spirit of the law prevails over the letter of it. It is not so in Russia, Russia is a country of a completely different consciousness, and this consciousness can be broken only by a very powerful movement from above, by the method of self-renunciation of power, excommunication from it.

Elena Rykovtseva: We can conclude this topic by saying that give free rein to Belkovsky, he will deprive Russia of presidents, he will come to power only in order to get away from it.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Such a candidate can always count on my support.

​Elena Rykovtseva: I received a most interesting message from my colleagues on our pager: "Nothing is happening with our special correspondent Ivan Voronin - he was released." I don’t know what conclusion to draw from this - Voronin was released from our airwaves or Navalny was released.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Let's assume that everyone was released, and Alexei Navalny, and Leonid Volkov, and Ivan Voronin.

Elena Rykovtseva: Leonid Volkov was hardly released. They wrote to me that he still cannot participate with us. Either Voronin, or Navalny, or both were released.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Remember, in the Soviet KVN there was such a vulgar joke about the famous pop group "Nogu Svelo": the latest news from "Nogu Svelo" - the leg was let go. God bless us all.

Elena Rykovtseva: And about you, the Mango group would sing "They don't take them to the presidency."

Stanislav Belkovsky: Why don't they take it? We'll see.

Elena Rykovtseva: Okay, let's get this over with.

Illustration: bogusfreak for TD; photos used: Artem Korotaev, Mikhail Metzel, AP, Mikhail Dzhaparidze, Artem Geodakyan, Dmitry Astakhov/Russian government press service/TASS; Dmitry Donskoy/RIA Novosti; Petra Wegner/Lori Photobank/Nature Picture Library

On December 6, Vladimir Putin announced his participation in the presidential elections. He announced this at a meeting with employees of the GAZ plant, adding that "there is no better place and better reason for such a statement" (quoted by RIA Novosti).

Takie Dela asked more than a dozen Russian political scientists, journalists, economists, writers, music critics, and artists about who they see as president of Russia.

Alexey Navalny

Andrey Loshak, journalist:

Of all those who try to claim this place, he most sincerely wants it. Navalny deserves at least participation in the elections. Despite the monstrous pressure, he created eighty staffs, attracted young people, which was not possible for anyone in my memory. This is great, because in a healthy society, young people should fight to change the world for the better, not be apolitical.

Also, judging by how fiercely the authorities are fighting him, he really poses a danger to them, and this is a plus. It is high time to change the current government.

Kirill Rogov, political scientist:

The choice is connected with the real alignment of political forces. Only those who are ready to fight and make efforts, no matter what, can become president. Now we see that only Navalny is capable of this. Yes, he does not always succeed, but he does not give up and this causes my respect.

Dmitry Medvedev

Yuri Saprykin, journalist:

If not Putin, then Medvedev or one of these. So, most likely, it will happen, if not now, then a little later. Everything else is fiction, it's no longer possible to think about it seriously.

Oleg Kashin, publicist:

I adhere to a romantic and utopian view of this problem - the legitimate supreme body of state power in Russia is called the Congress of People's Deputies, its activities were criminally interrupted in the fall of 1993, and since then power has been seized by people who have no right to it. Although more than twenty years have passed, the opportunity to convene this convention anew still exists. Without a solution to the "problem-1993" any change of power will be a sham and the question of a new president does not make sense. But if you need a formal answer with a surname, then Dmitry Medvedev can easily change Putin at any moment - he has the appropriate experience, status in the system, etc.

Dmitry Rogozin

Anatoly Wasserman, publicist:

I would prefer to see him if it turns out that Putin does not consider himself healthy enough to spend another six years in this penal servitude. Rogozin has already proved that he can manage complex economic and political complexes. He has a fairly strong character, and one can hope for his effective work in this post.

And so I'm sure that several candidates have already been prepared. These people are not advertised yet, so as not to be exposed to the public, they will appear when it becomes necessary.

Irina Prokhorova

Lyudmila Ulitskaya, writer:

An educated, talented person, with a deep understanding of the global economic and social process, morally sane, unlike today's leaders of the country.

Sergey Brin

Andrey Movchan, economist:

The founder of Google, a native of Russia, is well acquainted with Russian culture. Manages a business that is as difficult to own as running a government. The number of Google employees is now more than officials in Russia, so he has enough of the necessary experience. He is excellent at pursuing the international policy of his company, he is well versed in the world situation, he is young.

Evgeny Yasin

Sergey Parkhomenko, journalist and publisher:

This is one of the last remaining moral authorities in the country. A man of great honesty and nobility. In addition, a very educated, excellent economist. Unfortunately, Yasin is already in his old age, and his election would mean that part of the president's powers will be transferred to the government. But I'm sure he would have picked the right people for it and would have done a great job overall.

Ruslan Lobachev

Ilya Oskolkov-Tsentsiper, founder of the Afisha magazine and the Strelka Institute:

I think that the president should be a person whom I know well and in whom I have confidence. My candidate is my colleague and good friend Ruslan Lobachev. I think he will be great at it.

Sergey Kapkov

Alexander Baunov, editor-in-chief of Carnegie.ru:

Of the 146 million Russians, the president can become the one who begins to make a political career. In the meantime, no one is doing it, you can judge by managerial results.

Sergei Kapkov began to introduce in Moscow the same correct things that the team of the capital's mayor was also engaged in. He did the same in the areas where he worked, proved to be just as effective manager. In a sense, he started the Moscow reform. Only this person is more liberal than the Sobyanin group, he understands culture better and speaks better in public. Plus he's young.

Alexander Auzan

Valery Panyushkin, journalist:

First, he is a scientist. Secondly, not just a scientist, but a scientist-economist. In addition, he is the author of several studies that combine economics and culture, which I consider extremely important. In his free time, he devotes a lot of energy to human rights activities. And this combination of an economist, a culturologist and a human rights activist seems to me very valuable for the President of the Russian Federation.

Ekaterina Shulman

Inna Kravchenko, editor:

She is a smart woman, witty, understands political science. He understands in this what no one now sitting in the State Duma understands. She has many virtues, they can be seen both in her texts and in her YouTube videos. As far as she is intellectual, cheerful, in general - the dream of a Russian person.

Anton Bakov

Alexander Ustinov, political scientist:

I believe that Putin - one of the best candidates and if he participates in the elections, he will win against any rivals. As for those people for whom I would vote and would like to see in the list, this is, of course, Anton Alekseevich Bakov (monarchist party). Because Bakov is smart, positive, relatively young and believes that it is necessary to talk with the authorities. And in general, Bakov is not a cynic, but is very humanistic about any problems.

Stanislav Belkovsky

Stanislav Belkovsky, political scientist:

The best presidential candidate is myself, because I understand best how this country needs to be transformed. Through radical measures necessary for the state, although the population, of course, would not agree with them. For example, I would ban the ROC and allow gay marriage.

Boris Shmelev

Boris Shmelev, Member of the Academic Council of OIEPS IE RA:

If not Putin, then only me. Because I have lived for many years, of which the last 50 have been engaged in political science. I understand what our state needs, how to solve its problems. I think I would have put together a good working team and brought the country to a new sustainable stage of development.

Vladimir Martynov

Maxim Semelyak, music critic:

It seems to me that Russia should compose something new, in the composer's sense of the word.

Husky

Husky, rapper:

If not Putin, then me. Because I am smart and honest. And modest.

Some of the experts interviewed by "TD" proposed candidates for the position of president who have died or do not meet the requirements set forth in Chapter 4 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation. Despite this, "TD" publish this list.

Boris Nemtsov

Lusya Shtein, municipal deputy of the Basmanny district of Moscow:

In the current situation, anyone, the main thing is not Putin. Simply for reasons of the need for a change of power. 18 years is more than Brezhnev, it's a little less than I live!

But if you call a specific name, then Nemtsov, if he were alive.He was a personality and an undisputed leader. A mostly positive, really serious person, but at the same time really "simple", and this is the quality that everyone is trying to imitate now - "closeness to the people." He had it by nature. A smart, brave and strong person, with insane energy, charisma, to which everyone was drawn, with some kind of inner freedom. No wonder the documentary dedicated to him is called "Too Free". All these words are confirmed by the fact that he was killed. Because he was a real rival, Putin, compared to Nemtsov, is a pathetic louse.

Andrey Sakharov

Ksenia Sokolova, head of the Fair Aid Foundation:

Cat (Fat or Small)

Artem Loskutov, artist:

If not Putin, then a cat. I have two, and both are just as good.