Percentage channel transmission mechanism...

Prospects for Improving Monetary Policy

Analysis of evolutionary trends in the monetary policy of developed countries and their impact on the monetary policy of Russia

The evolution of the activities of central banks over the past 50 years requires close attention, it is necessary to constantly monitor institutional changes both in the internal environment and in the external one. Institutional factors play an important role in the study of the structure and operation of the central bank. At present, central banks have come to greater openness and there is an opportunity to analyze their activities.

Having studied the position and policy of central banks in industrialized countries, we can talk about a number of common features inherent in them. Similarities begin to emerge during the development of central banks in the post-war period: tendencies to keep inflation at a certain level, setting interest rates for decades. Siklos, Pierre L. The Changing Face of Central Banking: Evolutionary Trends since World War II. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003.

Also in the course of the analysis, it became clear that contradictions between central banks and governments of foreign states occurred constantly. The goals and policies of central banks, or both, remained debatable, and the autonomy of central banks remained an important issue. Economic activity has undoubtedly been a direct cause for any conflicts. This was especially acute during periods when the economy was under stress. But even if conflict situations were resolved, the main problem of their occurrence was the lack of clear objectives of monetary policy.

For the past 50 years, at least three "pressures" have been thought to be at work on monetary policy: political pressures associated with elections or covert changes in government; institutional pressure associated with the statutory functions that the central bank describes; state relations and international pressure that stem from political decisions abroad.

Thus, foreign central banks have largely responded to inflation and unemployment shocks by raising and lowering nominal interest rates. But changes in interest rates did not fundamentally change the situation, since there were still many other factors influencing monetary policy.

According to the American economist Siklos, general inflationary trends in different countries were considered in connection with such factors as changes in the exchange rate regime and the widespread introduction of inflation targeting in 1990. In addition, Siklos points out that "average inflation rates across countries are lower in the 1990s than in the 1960s, while average nominal interest rates are, on average, higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s. This is not to say that monetary policy has become too tight, Siklos, Pierre L. The Changing Face of Central Banking: Evolutionary Trends since World War II, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003.

Difficulties with the reaction of central banks to changes in the country also arose due to the incomplete use of monetary policy instruments, such as exchange rate policy, as well as the rather slowly changing nature of the government's attitude towards the central bank.

The period from 1960 to 1990 is one of the experimental periods when various monetary policy regimes were applied in many countries. In general, the trend has been towards greater flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy within the limits, in order to meet the set goals and achieve positive economic results, for which central banks were responsible.

Thus, for the greater responsibility of central banks, it was established that they should keep records and disclose information about their activities. This was a key contribution to creating favorable conditions for the development of the monetary policy of central banks.

Thus, monetary policy was the most flexible instrument of economic policy of the governments of various countries, as well as the most powerful one. However, once World War II ended, the experience of the 1920s and 1930s showed a deep distrust of monetary policy, but rather of central banks themselves. Many governments sought stability after decades of fluctuations in prices and other macroeconomic indicators. But there was no coordination in politics. While fiscal policy dominated as the main policy instrument, a new view was put forward that the central bank should be central to the implementation of economic policy, since fiscal policy was not active in its decisions and measures taken, and also failed to achieve assigned tasks.

The monetary policy of the Bank of Russia has consistently acquired features characteristic of the policies of the central banks of the countries of the world community, whose economies are developing according to market laws.

As for the current state and changes in monetary policy in the context of financial globalization, which is one of the most important components of the process of globalization of the world economy, it has a significant impact on the development of the national economy and the conduct of national monetary policy. John B. Taylor Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy. Stanford University. 2006.

Financial globalization has created new challenges for national monetary policy, limiting the space for its independent implementation. Financial globalization is reflected in the emergence of new trends: the emergence of speculative "bubbles", the growth of cross-border flows and financial innovations, disintermediation, untimely reaction of central banks to ongoing changes in the economy, changes within the system of financial intermediaries, multicurrency, changes in the state of the economy. Nazarenko Julia. Impact of globalization on monetary policy in Europe//Relevant issues of development of the world economy. September 2011

First, the growth of cross-border capital flows increases the risks of speculative "bubbles" in asset markets and the scale of their negative consequences. Vivid examples are a series of financial crises in the largest emerging markets from 1994 to 2001 in Mexico, Southeast Asia, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Argentina; the decline in the stock markets of developed countries in 2001-2003; the recent mortgage crisis in 2007 in the United States, which led to turmoil in global financial markets. Golovnin M.Yu. Financial globalization and restrictions of the national monetary policy//Voprosy ekonomiki №7.2007.

The state of modern financial markets, characterized as metastability (potential instability), determines the predisposition to shocks. The lack of transparency in the application of many market-based instruments has increased the overall risks. Financial institutions did not neutralize the emerging imbalances, but accumulated, strengthened them, transmitted them to the real sector, and, in the end, the risks became systemic. Kryuchkova I.P. Globalization: Risks and Challenges for Monetary Policy // Banking. 2011. No. 7.

Secondly, as a result of globalization processes, under the influence of the growth of financial innovations, the functioning of national financial markets is changing, and the uncertainty of the impact of measures taken by the central bank on macroeconomic variables is increasing.

Globalization has changed world markets, strengthened their interconnections, and the lack of mechanisms for effective monitoring and prevention of systemic risks has become a catalyst for the global financial crisis. It is systemic risks that increase the instability of the global financial system and force central banks and governments of developed and developing countries to take steps to prevent them and maintain stability. Kryuchkova I.P. Globalization: Risks and Challenges for Monetary Policy // Banking. 2011. No. 7.

Jean-Claude Trichet, Chairman of the Board of the European Central Bank, noted that the key factors in the formation of such risks were the opacity of financial structures, vulnerability to "contagion" of the domino effect and procyclicality, which acts as a trend enhancer. Jean Claude Trichet. Risk and monetary policy//BIS Review. 2010. No29 The need for financial resources increases and decreases following the phases of the economic cycle. However, the supply of these funds does not simply reflect demand, but often reinforces the cycle.

Thirdly, the decrease in the difference in interest rates between countries leads to a change within the system of financial intermediaries, and institutional investors begin to play an increasingly important role. Okina K., Shirakawa M., Shiratsuka S. Financial Market Globalization: Present and Future // Monetary and Economic Studies. 1999.December. P.6.

Fourth, central banks have in practice responded to large changes in financial asset prices ex post by bailing out financial institutions that are bearing significant costs as a result of stock market downturns. Either there is an incorrect assessment of risks or not fully assessed the consequences of shocks for the financial system, not entirely correct conclusions about the rules for the functioning of modern markets and their self-regulation in a changed global world. Thus, in the context of globalization, national sovereignty in the field of monetary policy is partially lost. Lebedev A.E. Financial globalization: general characteristics and challenges for Russia. M.: IMPEPI RAN, 2003. P. 18. In order for it not to be completely lost, it is necessary to take into account the impact on the national economy of the dynamics and global financial markets in order to build theoretical models for the functioning of the monetary sphere and its regulation in the new conditions.

Fifth, in the context of globalization, important qualitative changes are also taking place within the system of financial intermediaries: the importance of investment banks and institutional investors is growing in the financial markets themselves. These groups of financial intermediaries actually connect economic agents around the world, while traditional commercial banks are expanding globally to a much lesser extent. Golovnin M.Yu. New challenges to monetary policy in the context of globalization: financial crises // International Economics. 2009. No. 6.

Sixth, multicurrency is noted as one of the problems for the national monetary policy. Multicurrency refers to the absence of a single world currency and a unified monetary policy and the instability and instability inherent in the exchange rates of leading currencies in a liberalized global economy, and for other countries, the dependence of the stability of their currencies on international competitiveness and the monetary policy of countries with "freely usable currencies". ".

Seventh, according to foreign economist S. Mishkin, the growing integration of global products, labor and financial markets significantly change the state of the economy, which complicates the activity of monetary policy to stabilize monetary circulation. Frederic S. Mishkin. Globalization, macroeconomic, performance, and monetary policy. // National bureau of economic research. April 2008 (www.nber.org/papers/w13948)

Having considered the impact of globalization on monetary policy, foreign economist Sutherland A. concluded that although financial globalization affects and changes the external environment within which monetary policy operates, it cannot change the main objectives of optimal monetary policy. Alan Sutherland. Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy// International Monetary Fund. 2007.

Modern theoretical studies of the impact of financial globalization on monetary policy are mainly focused on the issues of its impact on inflation rates within the country and on the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. The general conclusion of most researchers is that globalization and global trends in the conduct of monetary policy have rather a downward effect on the world inflation rate (this pattern is largely empirical in nature, and its stability still needs to be confirmed) and contributes to the equalization of interest rates. between countries, which limits the ability of monetary policy to influence the state of the economy through this tool.

To improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in the country, it is necessary to solve a number of preliminary tasks:

• 1. Promoting the development of the national banking system and the stock market, which are not critically dependent on foreign capital, which will allow them to respond more flexibly to signals from the central bank and form effective monetary policy transmission mechanisms.
• 2. Continued development of monetary policy instruments, which began during the crisis, in terms of improving operations on the open market and allowing a wider range of counterparties to participate in the operations of the central bank.
• 3. Maintain exchange rate management to promote economic diversification and avoid large fluctuations in capital flows. At the same time, strict exchange rate regulation, which is also associated with costs, is not necessary to achieve these goals.

Meanwhile, it seems important that monetary policy be guided by tracking a number of macroeconomic indicators, including, along with inflation rates, exchange rate dynamics, cross-border capital flows, and economic growth rates, not allowing them to deviate significantly from critical values. Such a regime can be conditionally characterized as limited discretionary monetary policy.

In addition, in the longer term, projects related to the expansion of its role in international monetary and financial relations can help increase the effectiveness of Russia's participation in the processes of financial globalization. This is primarily about the projects of the international financial center and giving the ruble the status of a regional currency.

It is also necessary to abandon obviously unattainable goals, such as the creation of a single currency or a single market for financial services along the lines of the euro area and the EU. Monetary and financial interaction can be aimed at solving specific problems: harmonization of monetary policy regimes; facilitating the regulation of the dynamics of exchange rates, including currency swap operations; formation of separate segments of the regional financial market (for example, the market for government or corporate bonds) by removing restrictions that prevent this and harmonizing regulatory norms.

Summing up, we can say that in the current conditions of globalization of the entire economy as a whole, a qualitatively new paradigm of monetary policy is needed, since the results of national monetary policy are becoming less predictable; the degree of predictability of the very environment of its implementation is reduced; national monetary policy faces limitations both in terms of goals and instruments available for its implementation; the degree of responsibility for an insufficiently thought-out monetary policy is increasing, which can lead to an outflow of capital from the country, a financial and economic crisis.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY: PROBLEMS AND OPINIONS

MONETARY POLICY OF ECONOMICALLY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: THE CHOICE OF THE PATH AFTER THE CRISIS

V. I. MELNIKOVA, postgraduate student

Russian State Trade and Economic University

Depending on the state of the economic situation, restrictive and expansionist policies are distinguished. The restriction is accompanied by an increase in taxes, a reduction in government spending, as well as other measures aimed at curbing inflation. Expansionary monetary policy is characterized by the expansion of lending, the weakening of control over the growth of the amount of money in circulation, the reduction of tax rates and lowering the level of interest rates.

Each type of monetary policy is characterized by its own set of tools and a certain combination of economic and administrative methods of regulation.

The restrictive (or restrictive) policy used to reduce the money supply in a country and fight inflation is the "dear money" policy. In a situation where the economy is faced with excessive spending, which gives rise to inflationary processes, the Central Bank should try to reduce overall spending by limiting or reducing the money supply. To solve this problem, it is necessary to reduce the reserves of commercial banks.

This is done in the following way. The central bank must sell government bonds on the open market in order to cut the reserves of commercial banks. Then it is necessary to increase the reserve ratio, which automatically frees commercial banks from

excess reserves. There is a rise in the discount rate to reduce the interest of commercial banks to increase their reserves by borrowing from the Central Bank.

As a result of this policy, banks find that their reserves are too small to meet the legal reserve ratio, that is, their current account is too large in relation to their reserves. Therefore, in order to meet the requirement of a reserve ratio with insufficient reserves, banks should keep their current accounts, refraining from issuing new loans after the old ones are paid off. As a result, the money supply will contract, causing an increase in the rate of interest, and an increase in the interest rate will reduce investment, reducing aggregate spending and curbing inflation.

The goal of policy is to limit the money supply, ie the availability of credit and its costs, in order to lower spending and contain inflationary pressures. Consider fig. one.

If the net national product (NNP) level, characterized by full employment and no inflation, is $450 billion, then there is an inflationary gap of $5 billion.

That is, at $470 billion in NNP, planned investment will exceed savings, and, consequently, total spending will exceed the total output in the country by $5 billion. Reducing the money supply from $150 billion to $125 billion will increase the interest rate from 8 to 10, as

Savings and investments, billion US dollars

Real interest rate, % 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2

shown in fig. 2, and will reduce the volume of investments from 20 to 15 billion dollars, as noted in Fig. 3 .

If we shift down the investment schedule in Fig. 1 from 1h1 to 1h3 by $5 billion, this will make it possible to equalize the planned investment and savings, and consequently, both total expenditures and the total output in the country, at the level of 450 billion NNP, as well as eliminate the initial 5 billion inflation gap.

The expansionist policy (the policy of "cheap" money) is carried out in order to increase the volume of investment in the economy and makes credit cheap and easily accessible. The US Federal Reserve resorts to a policy of "cheap" money if the equilibrium NNP is accompanied by significant unemployment and underutilization of productive capacity.

To increase the money supply, the US Federal Reserve Banks take the following actions in a certain combination:

First, the Central Bank must purchase securities on the open market from the public and from commercial banks;

Secondly, it is necessary to lower the discount rate;

Thirdly, it is necessary to change the standards for reserve allocations.

As a result of the measures taken, the excess reserves of the commercial banking system will increase. Since excess reserves are the basis for increasing the money supply by commercial banks through lending, it can be expected that the money supply in the country will increase. An increase in the money supply will lower the interest rate

Real interest rate and expected net profit margin, %

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2

Real NNP, billion USD 1. Dynamics of equilibrium NNP

0 50 100 150 200

Supply and demand

money, billion dollars

Investment size,

billion dollars

Rice. 3. Dynamics of demand for investments

Rice. 2. Dynamics of the money market

rate, causing an increase in investment and an increase in the equilibrium NNP. The amount by which NNP increases depends on the rate of growth in investment and the size of the income multiplier.

For example, if the full-time NNP is $490 billion, then expanding the money supply from $150 billion to $175 billion would lower the interest rate from $8 to $6, as shown in Figure 2. 1 and increase the investment from $20 billion to $25 billion, as shown in fig. 3.

Shift upwards of the schedule of investments on fig. 1 from 1n1 to I by $5 billion. with the corresponding multiplier equal to four, will increase the equilibrium NNP from 470 billion dollars. to the desired full employment level of $490 billion.

Restrictive monetary policy is aimed at implementing measures that regulate the activities of the monetary system by limiting the volume of credit operations of commercial banks and raising interest rates. Its implementation is usually accompanied by an increase in taxes, a reduction in government spending, as well as other measures aimed at curbing

inflation, and in some cases - to improve the balance of payments. Restrictive monetary policy can be used both to fight inflation and to smooth out cyclical fluctuations in business activity.

Monetary policy of both expansionary and restrictive type can be either total or selective. With a total monetary policy, the measures of the Central Bank apply to all institutions of the banking system, with a selective one - to individual credit institutions or their groups, or to certain types of banking activities. Selective monetary policy allows the Central Bank to exert selective influence in a given direction. During its implementation, the use of the following set of tools or their various combinations is practiced:

Establishment of limits for accounting and re-registration operations (for example, by industry, region, etc.);

Limitation of certain types of bank operations (their groupings);

Establishment of a margin when conducting various financial and credit operations;

Regulation of the conditions for issuing certain types of loans to various categories of borrowers;

Establishment of credit ceilings, etc.

Selective policies are resorted to when financial markets are poorly developed, when they are unable to provide a sufficiently effective redistribution of funds and investments in the right directions. On the one hand, such a policy contributes to a significant change in credit flows to priority areas of the economy, on the other hand, it hinders the normal functioning of the credit and financial system in connection with the creation of preferential lending conditions for certain regions, industries, and areas of activity. By establishing quantitative restrictions on loans directed to priority sectors, as well as preferential interest rates on them, the selective policy makes it necessary to subsidize priority sectors of the economy through loans from international financial institutions and budget funds, which inevitably gives rise to new problems in the credit and financial sphere.

The choice of the type of monetary policy pursued, and, accordingly, the set of instruments for regulating the activities of commercial banks, the Central Bank carries out based on the state of the economic situation in each specific case. Based on

such a choice, the main directions of monetary policy are approved by the legislature. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the time lag between the implementation of a particular measure of monetary regulation and the manifestation of the effect of its implementation. The effectiveness of the application of various types of monetary policy is determined by the extent to which the destabilization of money circulation is caused by purely monetary, rather than general economic and political factors.

The main directions of the unified state monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the next period are being formed in the difficult conditions of a deep general economic crisis. This situation arose under the influence of a number of external and internal factors:

Exacerbation of fiscal problems associated with a low level of tax collection, an increase in arrears in wages and social benefits, an increase in the cost of servicing and refinancing domestic public debt;

The growth of mutual non-payments and the actual bankruptcy of many enterprises in the real sector;

Deterioration of the state of the balance of payments due to the growth of expenses for servicing the external public debt and the maintenance of an overvalued ruble exchange rate, the predicted change in the situation in the world energy markets;

Deterioration of the situation in the global financial markets, expressed in the outflow of international capital from countries with emerging markets.

For example, in the development of the 1998 crisis, two stages can be distinguished, during which monetary policy was different and evolved in accordance with the general economic situation.

At the first stage, the crisis was mostly hidden, and it was possible to resist it by increasing the public debt and spending the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves. During this period, refinancing rates were repeatedly raised on the financial market, on pawn loans and on raising funds in deposits of the Bank of Russia. It was during this period that it became obvious that state short-term obligations ceased to be an instrument designed to attract funds to the federal budget, and, on the contrary, began to absorb funds from the budget. As a result, the Government of the Russian Federation decided to stop borrowing in this market and to re-register

government securities (GKO-OFZ) maturing before December 31, 1999 into new securities.

The second stage of the crisis proceeded in an open form and covered all aspects of the economic life of Russia: the Government was unable to service the public debt and fulfill its current obligations, financial markets practically ceased to function, the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves were at an extremely low level, a systemic crisis arose in the banking sector . The subsequent devaluation of the ruble determined the new state of the economy, as there was a sharp jump in inflation, and the population lost confidence in the financial system and banks.

The crisis has led to new problems in the country's economy:

Deterioration of the conditions for fulfilling obligations on external debts;

Slowing down the pace of transition to economic growth;

The need to find additional funds to improve the banking system and financial markets;

Growing social tension in society.

In this situation, there was a change in the priorities of monetary policy due to the impossibility of giving preference to any of its types - neither restrictive nor expansionist. Monetary policy has become balanced, which implies the observance of strict financial discipline by all economic agents, a responsible approach to the regulation of the money supply and the utmost intensification of work in the field of institutional reforms in the conditions of a floating exchange rate regime.

The main advantage of a monetary policy pursued under a floating exchange rate is that it eliminates the risk of an imbalance associated with the inconsistency of the exchange rate with changing macroeconomic conditions, a factor that has a serious negative impact on economic development. With a floating exchange rate regime, the Central Bank gets the opportunity to increase the saturation of the economy with money.

The market determination of the exchange rate, which does not require the Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves to maintain, allows the bank to pay more attention to the problems of the real sector of the economy. Under these conditions, there are opportunities to increase the positive balance of the current account, improve the payment

balance sheet as a whole, as well as to begin work on the restoration of gold and foreign exchange reserves, which is very important in the post-crisis period.

After the introduction of the floating exchange rate regime, the balances of funds on correspondent accounts of commercial banks also increased significantly, which contributed to the gradual recovery from the crisis of bank non-payments. The money supply increased somewhat, and most importantly, this was not accompanied by an increase in inflation.

But the reason why the Russian economy never entered the trajectory of sustainable economic growth was not a budget deficit or lack of revenues, but the crisis of the banking system itself.

In 2009-2010 The world economy has entered a very difficult economic period. Despite the fact that the causes of the global crisis are related to the functioning of the American financial system, Russia, like most countries in the world, has been drawn into this process. The modern crisis is characterized by a number of features both within the framework of national economies and in the world economy. It is usually compared with the crisis of 1929-1933. However, it takes place in new historical conditions - at the stage of economic modernization based on intensive scientific and technological progress, as part of the implementation of the new economy model.

In connection with the financial crisis in the world markets, Russian credit institutions also had problems. In fact, the period of “cheap” and “long” money that leading banks, such as Sberbank, VTB and Gazprombank, received in the form of loans from abroad, and then resold to medium and small banks in the interbank lending market, ended for them. In such a situation, many banks, having lost available sources of lending, are forced to raise lending rates and tighten requirements for borrowers. Including a significant blow dealt to the nascent domestic mortgage. The citizens of the Russian Federation have to pay the price for the insolvency of the US mortgage and the mistakes of Russian banking risk managers.

In the context of the crisis, the countries of the European Union (EU) have taken steps to develop a European version of a concerted effort to overcome the crisis. At the same time, significant discrepancies emerged. If in the USA the model of G. Bush was based on neoliberal and monetarist postulates in the form, first of all, of pumping public funds into banking and business structures, then in Europe, President N. Sarkozy came up with a model of “entrepreneurial capitalism”

from the model of "financial capitalism", i.e. restrictions on the omnipotence of financial capital, the rejection of economic uncontrollability, fraught with crises.

The situation in the Russian Federation is different in a number of ways. In the pre-crisis period, as a result of an unprecedented increase in prices on the world hydrocarbon markets, a significant reserve was created in Russia. However, this did not become a reliable protection against the crisis.

First, the global nature of the crisis was not fully taken into account. The unprecedented rise in oil prices gave rise to the illusion of their preservation for the foreseeable future.

Secondly, the close credit ties of the largest Russian banks and corporations with foreign creditors led to an increase in external debt. Meanwhile, in 2008-2009. maturity date has come. Under the conditions of depreciation on the securities exchanges and liquidity decrease, the borrowers faced the threat of default.

Thirdly, the disproportions between production and sales, the dynamics of demand within the country, were growing.

Fourthly, the structure of production in Russia remains backward: the process of economic modernization on a mass scale has practically not been started, the raw material orientation of the economy remains.

Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan experienced the impact of the global financial crisis later than the Western countries, only in the autumn of 2008. Russia was the first to feel the impact of the crisis. Already in September, the indicators of economic dynamics deteriorated somewhat, although they still remained better (index values ​​above zero) than in Western countries (Great Britain, France, Germany, USA, Canada). In October, the economic situation deteriorated sharply in Russia and Ukraine, the values ​​of the anti-crisis efficiency index dropped significantly below zero.

In Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, the indicators of exports and the volume of foreign trade as a whole decreased, stock indices were significantly stronger than in Western countries (almost twice). In all CIS countries, the problem of high consumer price growth persists. As of March 2009, the increase in the unemployment rate in Kazakhstan compared to March 2008 was 2.9%. Less only in Germany - 2.4%. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a completely different order of numbers: 53.8% and 34.8%, respectively, although we have not yet caught up with the anti-leader - in the USA 66.7%. Gold and foreign exchange reserves in Kazakhstan were in March 2009 only 1.9% less compared to March 2008, while in Russia - by 25.1%, by

Ukraine - by 23.6%. Western European countries are divided into two groups according to this indicator: in Germany, Canada and the USA, their dynamics indicator is close to zero, and in France and Great Britain it is close to the Russian values.

The most difficult situation affecting all economic and social problems is developing in the sphere of financial and monetary policy. At the end of the first half of 2009, inflation in Russia compared to June 2008 was 11.9%. In the UK, this figure is 1.8%, Germany - 0.1%, Italy - 0.5%. A number of developed countries (USA, Canada, France, Japan, China) experienced slight deflation. Moreover, in this situation, another deviation from the classical theory of monetarism appeared, which believes that the dynamics of consumer prices is directly dependent on the amount of money in the economy.

The main driver of price growth was the devaluation and increase in tariffs of natural monopolies, once again confirming the dominance of cost-push inflation over demand-push inflation in the Russian Federation. It is very important to take this into account when making decisions in the field of the economy, fearing either to "strangle" the economy with a lack of sufficient money, or to pour in an excessive amount of money supply and disperse the flywheel of inflation.

Assessing the development of the Russian economy and monetary policy in 2009, the Bank of Russia notes that the conditions for the development of the Russian economy in January-July 2009 were significantly worse than in 2008. Under the influence of the crisis in the global economy and a decrease in demand for Russian exports in the context of lower world oil prices than in the previous year and net outflow of private capital GDP in the first half of 2009. decreased by 10.4%.

For sustainable economic growth, the real sector of the economy needs access to "long and cheap" money, and financial institutions are not ready to issue such loans in conditions of high inflation and the threat of a new devaluation.

The global financial and economic crisis has set new tasks for the world community related to the need to harmonize and coordinate anti-crisis efforts on an international scale in order to determine effective methods for overcoming the crisis and measures designed to prevent its recurrence in the future. Despite the difference in the interpretation of the causes of the crisis, its consequences and countermeasures, a common position has been developed - awareness of the seriousness of the current situation and the need to reform the existing international financial system.

we, because it does not meet the requirements of the world economy in the context of its globalization.

At the meetings, a decision was made to reform the IMF and the World Bank, to which the G20 countries would allocate up to $5 trillion to fight the crisis. The need to tighten the financial market regulation system was noted. The leaders of the world's largest economies agreed to maintain anti-crisis measures until the recovery of the global economy becomes more sustainable, introduce new rules for regulating the banking system by the end of 2012, establish criteria for bonuses to top managers of banks and corporations, etc.

According to Troika Dialog investment company experts, the Russian economy bottomed out as early as January 2009, but the current monetary policy limits economic growth, so the Bank of Russia should speed up rate cuts and reduce foreign exchange interventions. Undoubtedly, in these circumstances, the conduct of a prudent monetary policy by the state, the skillful use of its tools will help stabilize the economy and gradually overcome the current crisis.

Thus, the improvement of the banking system is the main condition for an effective monetary policy. The crisis events showed the complexity of forecasting the volume of the ruble money supply under the current economic uncertainty.

The dollarization of the Russian economy makes it especially important to use in monetary policy not only the patterns of changes in the dynamics of the ruble assets of economic agents, but also the movement of their foreign currency accounts. Therefore, based on the forecast of the balance of payments, it can be assumed that the export external sector will play an important role in the process of forming the money supply.

In the context of maintaining the level of prices for export goods and the implementation of effective measures of foreign exchange regulation and foreign exchange control, one can expect an increase in the positive balance of the current account of Russia's balance of payments. This will create a basis for increasing the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank and will have an impact on the parameters of growth in the money supply,

Expansionist policy Restrictive policy

Problem: unemployment and recession Problem: inflation

The Federal Reserve buys bonds, lowers the reserve ratio, or lowers the discount rate The Federal Reserve sells bonds, raises the reserve ratio, or raises the discount rate

Money supply goes up Money supply goes down

Interest rates fall Interest rates rise

Investment spending is on the rise Investment spending is on the decline

Real CHIP increases by an amount that is a multiple of the increase in investment Inflation decreases

Rice. 4. Comparison of types of monetary policy

and reduce the government's borrowing needs.

From all of the above, we can conclude that there are two main classification types of monetary policy that are used by economically developed countries: restrictive and expansionary. Consider their main differences (Fig. 4).

Thus, the expansionary monetary policy (or the policy of "cheap" money) is characterized, as a rule, by the expansion of the scale of lending, the weakening of control over the increase in the amount of money in circulation, the reduction of tax rates, and the lowering of interest rates. The restrictive policy (or the policy of "expensive" money) is aimed at tightening conditions and limiting the volume of credit operations of commercial banks. It involves and is accompanied by an increase in taxes, cuts in government spending, as well as other measures aimed at curbing inflation, and in some cases - at improving the balance of payments.

Bibliography

1. Dinkevich A. I. World financial and economic crisis // Money and credit. 2009. No. 10.

2. Krugloye V. ^. Trends in the development of Russian credit institutions at the stage of the global financial crisis // Finance and credit. 2009. No. 43.

3. McConnell K.P., Brew S.L. Economics: principles, problems and politics. In 2 volumes: trans. from English. 11th ed. T. 1. M.: Respublika, 1992.

4. Nikolaev I., Marchenko T., Titova M. CIS countries and the world crisis // Society and economy. 2009. No. 6.

5. The policy of cheap and expensive money: URL: www. Unless, ha/.

6. Pridachuk M. ^. Financial policy of Russia in the conditions of crisis // Finance and credit. 2009. No. 41.

7. Types of monetary policy: URL: www.eco-nomics.ru/.

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Faculty of Economics and Management Department of State and Municipal Management

COURSE WORK

in the discipline "Economics of the public sector"

State monetary policy

Head of work Senior Lecturer

Comptroller

Executor

student of group "_"_20_g.

Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

FEDERAL STATE BUDGET EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION OF HIGHER PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION

Faculty of Economics and Management

Department of State and Municipal Administration

Assignment for term paper

State monetary policy

Initial data:

Legislative and regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation, statistical data from Rosstat, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Finance, as well as publications of domestic and foreign economists on the problem under study.

List of issues to be developed:

a) reveal the essence of monetary policy;

b) analyze the implementation of Russia's monetary policy;

List of graphic material:

Tables, charts, figures reflecting the main aspects of monetary policy.

annotation

In this course work "The monetary policy of the state" considers the issues of monetary policy on the example of the Russian Federation.

The structure of this work is as follows.

The first chapter discusses the theoretical foundations and features of monetary policy, tools and objectives of monetary policy, models, as well as world experience in implementing this policy.

The second section analyzes the monetary policy for the period from 2008 to 2011, discusses the features of the implementation of monetary policy in the Russian Federation.

The work was printed on 44 pages using 26 sources, contains 5 tables, 7 figures and 1 appendix.

Introduction

One of the necessary conditions for the effective development of the economy is the formation of a clear monetary policy mechanism that allows the Central Bank to influence business activity, control the activities of commercial banks, and achieve stabilization of monetary circulation.

Monetary policy is a very effective tool for influencing the country's economy, which does not violate the sovereignty of the majority, the subjects of the business system. Although in this case there is a restriction of the scope of their economic freedom (without this, any regulation of economic activity is generally impossible), but the state influences the key decisions made by these entities only indirectly.

Ideally, monetary policy is designed to ensure price stability, full employment and economic growth - these are its highest and ultimate goals. However, in practice, with its help, it is also necessary to solve narrower tasks that meet the urgent needs of the country's economy.

We must not forget that monetary policy is an extremely powerful and therefore extremely dangerous tool. With its help, it is possible to get out of the crisis, but a sad alternative is not ruled out - the aggravation of the negative trends that have developed in the economy. Only very balanced decisions made at the highest level after a serious analysis of the situation, consideration of alternative ways of influencing monetary policy on the economy of the state, will give positive results. The central emission bank of the state acts as a conductor of monetary policy. Without the correct monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank, the economy cannot function effectively.

Today, in Russia, an effective monetary policy is designed to minimize inflation, promote sustainable economic growth, maintain exchange rate ratios at an economically justified level, stimulate the development of export-oriented and import-substituting industries, and significantly replenish the country's foreign exchange reserves. The task is quite difficult.

In this paper, the theoretical foundations of monetary policy will be considered, the monetary policy pursued by the Bank of Russia for the period from 2008-2011 will be analyzed, and a forecast for 2013-2015 will be given. and proposed the main ways to improve its efficiency.

Introduction ................................................ ................................

1 Essence, goals, instruments and models of monetary policy

states ................................................. ...............................

1.1 Essence, goals and instruments of monetary policy

states ................................................. ...............................

1.2 Models of the state's monetary policy ...............................................

1.3 World experience in the implementation of monetary policy..................................

2 Analysis of the effectiveness of monetary policy in the Russian

Federation at the present stage .............................................................. .....

2.1 The role, functions and tools of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation ..............................

2.2 Characteristics of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia,

carried out in 2008 - 2009 .............................................. ..........

2.3 Monetary policy in 2010-2011 ..............................................

3 Prospects for Development and Measures to Improve the Monetary Policy of the Russian Federation..................................................................................

3.1 Macroeconomic development scenarios, goals and instruments for

2013 and the period of 2014 and 2015 .............................................. ......

3.2 Measures to improve Russia's monetary policy...

Conclusion................................................. ................................................. .......

List of sources used ..............................

Annex A - Structural divisions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation .............................................. .........................

1.1 Essence, goals and instruments of the state monetary policy

The monetary policy of the state is understood as a set of measures of economic regulation of money circulation and credit aimed at ensuring sustainable economic growth by influencing the level and dynamics of inflation, investment activity and other important macroeconomic processes.

The monetary, or monetary, policy of the state is a set of government measures in the field of money circulation and credit in order to regulate the supply of monetary resources to ensure non-inflationary economic growth.

Monetary policy is part of the overall macroeconomic policy that affects monetary factors of instability.

Monetary policy is to change the money supply in order to stabilize aggregate output (stable growth), employment and price levels.

The fundamental objectives of the state monetary policy are:

Sustainable growth rates of national production;

Stable prices;

High level of employment of the population;

Equilibrium of the balance of payments.

Also, the objectives of monetary policy can be divided into primary, intermediate and tactical. Figure 1 demonstrates this.

Figure 1 - Objectives of monetary policy

Monetary policy is carried out by the Central Bank of the country.

The effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the choice of instruments (methods) of monetary regulation.

The main general instruments of monetary policy are:

Establishment of a mandatory reserve ratio;

Regulation of the official discount rate;

Open market operations;

administrative measures.

The discount rate policy (discount policy) is expressed in the regulation of the rediscount rate in the Central Bank of bills (written obligations of debtors to pay a certain amount at a predetermined date in a specified place) received from commercial banks. Those, in turn, receive bills of exchange from industrial, commercial and other companies. When determining their loan interest, commercial banks are guided by the discount rate of the Central Bank.

The change in the value of the discount rate depends on the state of the economic situation: in a recession, the rate is lowered and credit expands, and when the economy rises and there is a threat of overheating of the economy (that is, the threat of production going beyond effective demand in the market), the rate increases, and the volume of lending decreases.

According to the system of required reserves, commercial banks are required to keep a certain part of their credit resources in interest-free accounts of the Central Bank. The amount of reserves is set by the Central Bank in relation to deposits of commercial banks and ranges from 5 to 20%. Like the discount rate, the amount of reserves is adjusted depending on the economic situation. During an economic recovery, an increase in the reserve ratio limits the lending capacity of commercial banks and, consequently, their credit expansion. A decrease in the reserve ratio during an economic downturn means an expansion of the credit resources of banks and the volume of their credit operations, the main object of regulation of the required reserve ratio is commercial banks, and other institutions usually follow the interest rate policy of commercial banks.

The regulation of the money supply through operations on the open market is expressed in the sale and purchase of government bonds by credit banking institutions. By selling bonds on the open market, the Central Bank thus reduces the credit resources of commercial banks and other credit institutions. These operations of the Central Bank reduce the supply of credit by banks and, therefore, contribute to an increase in interest rates in the market. And vice versa, by buying up part of such securities, the Central Bank expands the credit resources of commercial banks and other lending institutions.

The direct administrative influence of the state on the credit and banking system is one of the main means of monetary regulation carried out by the Central Bank. In practice, it finds expression in direct instructions to credit institutions in the form of various directives, instructions, as well as the application of sanctions. These measures mainly apply to commercial and savings banks.

The Central Bank controls the activities of commercial banks (especially suspicious transactions), conducts regular audits of credit institutions. Of great importance in credit regulation is the legislative and regulatory practice carried out by public authorities - parliament, government, local administration.

Closely related to credit regulation is the regulation of cash in circulation, also carried out by the Central Bank. His policy in this area is closely linked with the above four methods of credit regulation, and consequently, the sphere of circulation of credit (deposit) money. There are complex relationships between credit regulation and regulation of the money supply. For example, if the Central Bank carries out active operations for the sale of securities, then this action leads to a reduction in the supply of deposit money, and vice versa, the purchase of such securities is tantamount to expanding the deposit part of the money supply in circulation. The influence of the interest rate policy of the Central Bank and the system of required reserves is similar. Modern macroeconomic theory includes several competing concepts that try to explain the mechanism of the functioning of the market system and give recommendations on the management of the national economy, including in the field of monetary relations.

Representatives of various economic schools offer different ways to influence macroeconomic parameters with the help of monetary policy. The most famous are the Keynesian and monetarist concepts of monetary policy.

The Keynesian concept arose in the 1930s. In practice, it was applied in the United States by the administration of President F. Roosevelt to overcome the economic crisis, which was called the Great Depression. This kind of policy after World War II was also widely used in Western European countries.

The Keynesian concept provides for the active role of the interest rate in stimulating investment and entrepreneurial activity. J.M. Keynes proposed to use the "policy of cheap money" during periods of economic recession by lowering the discount rate of interest. Conversely, during periods of economic recovery, he proposed using a "dear money policy" by raising the discount rate in order to prevent overheating of the economy and high inflation that usually accompanies an economic boom.

Thus, according to Keynesian theory, monetary policy should be carried out in connection with certain phases of the economic cycle and promptly respond to the state of the national economy. However, it should be noted that although the Keynesians consider the possibility of the impact of the interest rate on the size of investment and on real GDP, they simultaneously point out the possibility of the emergence of the so-called "liquidity trap". The meaning of the “liquidity trap” is that in the conditions of an increase in the parameters of the money supply (that is, with a large scale of the offered liquid funds) and, consequently, with a decrease in the interest rate, investors still do not have a desire to expand the demand for money. This situation occurs when investors have no expectation in profits.

In this case, the causal relationship between the lowering of the interest rate and the increase in the money supply, on the one hand, and the expansion of investment activity, business activity and the scale of GDP, on the other hand, is broken. Therefore, Keynesians believe that monetary policy is still not as effective as fiscal policy.

In the 70-80s of the twentieth century, almost all countries with a market economy faced the phenomenon of stagflation, when economic recession and stagnation in the economy were accompanied by high rates of unemployment and inflation.

In such a case, an active policy of cheap money, which was directed against recession and unemployment, led to the fact that inflation was even more exacerbated. In turn, high inflation hindered the desire to expand investment activities, and investors refrained from implementing investment projects. Consequently, the policy of cheap money did not achieve its goal.

At the same time, an anti-inflationary policy of expensive money could further exacerbate the recession and unemployment, as high interest rates curbed investment demand.

Under these conditions, the positions of the neoclassicists begin to strengthen in economic theory. In particular, there is an expansion of the influence of such a trend in neoclassical economic theory as monetarism. The most important representatives of the monetarist trend in economics are the American economists Irving Fisher and Milton Friedman.

Monetarists believe that active state intervention in the economy is inappropriate and should be limited only to the regulation of the money supply. Justifying their opinion, monetarists draw attention to the existence of so-called time lags in the economy. Time lags are periods of time between the adoption of certain economic decisions, including by the government and the central bank, and changes in the real situation in the economy. The time lag can be 6-9 months long. This is the period when economic actors will respond to the actions of government bodies. It is quite possible that the measures taken by the state will be belated.

Monetarists argue that monetary policy should not be associated with the phases of the economic cycle and it is necessary to move to a long-term policy of influencing the parameters of the money supply. In their opinion, there is a closer relationship between the amount of money in circulation and GDP parameters than between investment and GDP, and the dynamics of GDP follows the dynamics of changes in the money supply. The relationship between the parameters of nominal GDP and the amount of money in circulation in economic theory is described using the equation of exchange, the author of which, as noted earlier, is I. Fisher. According to monetarists, changes in the scale of the money supply can play an active role in influencing the price level, investment, unemployment, and GDP parameters.

In order to keep the country's economy in the mode of economic growth, it is necessary to annually increase the money supply in circulation, regardless of the phases of the cycle, by the amount of the average annual GDP growth rate calculated over a long period of time.

M. Friedman calculated that for the United States this average annual increase over a period of about a hundred years was equal to three percent. He substantiated and formulated the monetary rule, which found expression in the Friedman equation.

M - the average annual growth rate of money, calculated over a long period of time.

Y is the average annual GDP growth rate calculated over a long period of time.

P is the average annual growth rate of expected inflation.

The monetary rule assumes a strictly controlled increase in the money supply in circulation within 3-5% per year. With an increase in the money supply in excess of the specified parameters, inflation will “unwind”. Therefore, monetarists believe that inflation is the result of an ill-conceived policy of the state. If the rate of injection of money into the economy is less than 3% per year, then this will lead to a slowdown in the growth rate of real GDP, or even negative growth may be observed.

In turn, if the state adheres to a constant rate of growth of the money supply in the indicated parameters, then entrepreneurs in the money market will always find the money they need for investment, to replenish working capital, to pay wages. If at the same time the price of money (interest rate) is relatively high, then this will cut off a significant part of speculative transactions. According to monetarists, in order to fight inflation, it is necessary to make the monetary unit steadily expensive in order to prevent the expansion of speculative demand and make savings efficient. Entrepreneurs, knowing that the interest rate will be stable over a long period of time, and being sure that they will always find the amount of money they need in the money market, will be able to more accurately calculate their income from investment projects. Therefore, a higher price of money will not distract them from actions in favor of the implementation of investment investments and will ensure economic growth.

Modern theoretical models of monetary policy are a synthesis of different approaches to the impact of monetary instruments. At the same time, the monetarist approach prevails in long-term policy. At the same time, in order to quickly maneuver, the state does not refuse to influence the interest rate.

1.3 World experience in the implementation of monetary policy

The world economy has accumulated vast experience in the functioning of monetary and financial institutions, which makes it possible to assess their role in the overall monetary regulation of the economy, maintaining market liquidity, efficient payments, and the transfer of savings into investments. In the conditions of Russia, the country is of particular interest in familiarization with foreign experience in solving a number of problems of financial and economic stabilization, in particular, on the example of the most developed

countries of the world - Great Britain, Germany, Japan, USA and Mexico, which is one of the most developed countries in Latin America.

The Central Bank of Great Britain (Bank of England) is the government's adviser on monetary policy and its conductor. In the postwar years, he used almost all the main methods of monetary policy. In the 1940s monetary policy in accordance with the Keynesian recipes was seen as an addition to the financial one and was aimed mainly at the maximum reduction in the cost of public debt: a policy of "cheap money" was pursued, i.e. keeping interest rates low. The main instruments of monetary policy were the establishment of a fixed ratio of cash reserves to bank deposits and open market operations.

In the 1950s-1960s. monetary policy was carried out on the basis of neo-Keynesian concepts of counter-cyclical regulation. The peculiarities of the monetary regulation mechanism were frequent changes in the official discount rate, tightening or loosening of direct restrictions on bank loans depending on the state of the economic situation, the state of the balance of payments, the scale of inflation, as well as the use of operations with government bonds to stabilize their rates and lower the price of public debt. .

In 1971 the conservatives who came to power proclaimed a "new approach" to monetary regulation, based on neo-conservative concepts. Direct credit restrictions were noted and measures were taken to increase competition in the banking sector. This was accompanied by a sharp increase in the money supply and prices. Since the mid 1970s. there was an increase in the influence of neoconservative concepts on monetary policy: limits were set for the growth of the money supply, a number of measures were taken to stimulate the placement of government debt obligations outside the banking system, financial policy began to be considered primarily from the point of view of its impact on the money supply.

Since coming to power in 1979. conservative government of M. Thatcher, the direction of monetary policy began to be determined by the deviation of the growth rate of the money supply from the established limits. The main method of control of the Bank of England over the growth of the money supply was its operations for the purchase and sale of bills, and mainly commercial, not treasury, and the placement of government obligations outside the banking system.

In the 1990s The main instrument of monetary policy in the UK, as in other developed countries, has become open market operations.

Since January 1, 1999 The Bank of England is a member of the European System of Central Banks, which is headed by the European Central Bank, being a member with a special status: it does not have the authority to participate in decision-making on issues of a single monetary policy.

Great Britain uses its own currency and pursues an independent monetary policy.

As part of the conduct of monetary regulation, the German Federal Bank, like other central banks of the world, uses certain methods, among which a special place is occupied by the policy of reserve requirements. The Federal Bank, in accordance with the Law on the Central Bank, may set interest rates on obligations on demand deposits in the amount of no more than 30%, on term deposits no more than 20%, on savings deposits - no more than 10%, and on obligations to foreign institutions the bank may set interest rate up to 100%. The real change in the norms of required reserves is carried out by the Federal Bank if it is necessary to increase or decrease the money supply in the country, however, this can only be carried out in agreement with the European Central Bank and within the framework of a single EU monetary policy. In particular, the minimum reserve ratio at the beginning of the third stage of the economic and monetary union was 2.0%. Subsequently, this norm changed within the limits of 2-2.07% (January 2007).

Equally important is such an approach as an accounting or discount policy, which is used to pursue a policy of "cheap" and "expensive" money in accordance with the economic situation of the country. For example, in recent years, central bank monetary policy has focused on stimulating economic activity by setting low interest rates. Therefore, the policy becomes more aggressive, which led to a reduction in the discount rate in 2009 from 2.75 to 2%. In European countries, the possibility of reducing the percentage was due to the obligation of central banks to strive to achieve the benchmarks set for the growth of domestic consumer prices. In particular, in accordance with paragraph 247 of the Federal Law, such approximate rates were: as of January 1, 2009 -1.97; as of July 1, 2009 - 1.22; January 1, 2010 - 1.14; . -1.13 and as of January 1, 2011 - 1.21%. In this regard, there was an increase in the M3 aggregate by 8.7%, and loans - by 5%. When pursuing an open market policy, the Federal Bank carries out the purchase and sale of government securities.

The Federal Bank also uses in its arsenal such a method of regulation as targeting. Every year, he publishes a target corridor for a year to increase the amount of money. The basis for establishing the quantity of money is the assumption of an increase in production potential, the normative development of prices and changes in the velocity of money. Having information about the amount of money, the German economy is provided with benchmarks, within which the bank considers it appropriate, on the one hand, to allow for possible growth, and on the other, to severely limit inflation. At the same time, given that the currency is also in circulation in other EU countries, all this is carried out on the basis of the developments of the European Central Bank.

Turning to the experience of Japanese economists in the field of monetary regulation, it is necessary to note the following points that could be useful for solving our problems in the field of monetary regulation.

Manufacturing corporations in Japan had weak financial capacity in the early post-war decades, so the banking system played a huge role in creating the conditions for accelerated industrial growth in the 50s and 60s.

It should be noted that the main feature of the functioning of the banking system in Japan during almost the entire post-war period was a high degree of government control. Relying on such an instrument as Central Bank loans to the private financial sector on preferential terms, the state bureaucracy actually regulated both interest rates and lending directions, which made it possible to relatively successfully implement state priorities. At the same time, the mechanism of such regulation was based on the extremely high demand for money from the non-financial sector and the constant excess of loans over the amount of funds in bank deposits. Subsequently, the gradual increase in the role of self-financing and, accordingly, the lesser dependence of industrial corporations on bank lending eventually undermined the possibilities of administrative management on the part of the Central Bank and became one of the reasons for the liberalization of the monetary market.

In the past ten years, the main feature of the modern Japanese capital market has been an artificial structure and strict regulation of interest rates. At the same time, the liberalization of interest rates in the last decade was determined not so much by efficiency considerations as by the need to place a huge number of government bonds on the market and pressure from outside, and long-term loan rates are not quite marketable to this day.

As for the tools of the monetary policy of the Central Bank, such classical means as manipulating the discount rate and reserve ratios, as well as operations on the open securities market in Japan, during several post-war decades, were of very little importance, yielding in this capacity to direct quantitative rationing of credit in conditions of an artificially low level of interest.

Recently, however, the situation has changed somewhat: the easing of tension in the loan capital market, its internationalization, as well as the emergence of alternatives in the form of a growing stock market, to a large extent eliminated the objective economic basis of administrative regulation and forced the Bank of Japan to reconsider its attitude to traditional, classical instruments. . The degree of interest rate flexibility has increased and the discount rate has been raised to the market level. Since 1971, the Bank of Japan began operations in the bill market, and later began active operations with government bonds, switching to an open subscription system for them. Finally, a market for short-term government securities was formed and massive operations began in other short-term capital markets. All this indicates a qualitative change in the model of regulation of the credit and financial sector with an emphasis on indirect methods of such regulation, mediated by the liquid positions of banks, acting as direct subjects of credit expansion.

Consider the specific goals and mechanism of monetary policy. The approach to this policy was based on the idea of ​​selective support - a kind of "artificial selection of enterprises". The initiative in carrying out reforms in this area was taken by the government. And here it actively used the double effect of lowering interest rates: on the one hand, the administrative setting of interest rates at an extremely low level (from 1962 to 1977) artificially exceeded the rate of accumulation, redistributing funds in favor of the banking sector, and on the other hand, the regulation of lending rates and the shortage of loan capital thus created allowed the Central Bank and the government, in essence, to direct it to the largest corporations in the field of heavy industry and export industries. The main thesis of the policy being pursued is that neither the Bank of Japan nor the government considered it possible to leave the decision on the direction of the redistribution of funds, and, accordingly, the scarce resources available, to the spontaneous market process. It was precisely the ability of the highest state apparatus to avoid excessive dependence on the momentary interests of initial accumulation and to use all the power of state coercion to comply with the established "rules of the game" that apparently became one of the reasons for the country's rapid and healthy economic recovery in the 50s and 70s. years.

Similar features can be found in the mechanism of control over the money supply by the Bank of Japan. Without relying on indirect control, the Bank resorted to direct intervention in the processes in the bank lending markets, primarily in the short term. "The Bank of Japan directly controlled the formation of the bulk of the money supply. Attempts to influence investment demand through money supply regulators have a limited effect when they lowering interest rates or liberalizing the supply of credit cannot, in and of themselves, stimulate productive investment. In Japan, high investment demand was based on “business confidence in the future of the economy, which determined a high rate of return on capital. Therefore, the policy of lowering the interest rate in the market of credit resources and the rationing of credit had as their main goal the redistribution of funds from the population and small businesses in favor of the largest corporations capable of making effective investments.

2 Analysis of the effectiveness of monetary policy in the Russian Federation at the present stage

2.1 Role, functions and tools of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) is the main bank of the Russian Federation. It was created and operates on the basis of the Federal Law of July 10, 2002 No. 86-FZ “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)” (as amended on 10.01.0E) [SZ RF. 2002. No. 28. Art. 2790; 2003. No. 2. Art. 157.], his property is federal property. The Bank of Russia exercises the authority to own, use and dispose of its property, including its gold and foreign exchange reserves.

The development of monetary policy by the Bank of Russia is carried out in accordance with Art. 45 of the Federal Law "On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)". The Bank of Russia annually no later than August 26 submits to the State Duma a draft of the main directions of the unified state monetary policy for the coming year and no later than December 1 - the main directions of the unified state monetary policy for the coming year. The project is preliminary presented to the President and the Government of Russia.

The Central Bank is vested with the right to monopoly issue banknotes, regulate money circulation and the exchange rate, and store gold and foreign exchange reserves. The most important function of the Central Bank is the development of a common monetary policy. Its strategic task is to create conditions for non-inflationary development of the economy /

The Bank of Russia has three main objectives of its activities, enshrined in the Law "On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)":

1) protection and stability of the ruble;

2) development and strengthening of the banking system of the Russian Federation;

3) ensuring the efficient and uninterrupted functioning of the payment system.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation performs the following functions:

In cooperation with the Government of the Russian Federation develops and implements a unified state monetary policy;

Monopoly issues cash and organizes cash circulation;

Is a lender of last resort for credit institutions, organizes a system of their refinancing;

Establishes the rules for making settlements in Russia;

Establishes the rules for conducting banking operations;

Maintains accounts of budgets of all levels of the budget system of the Russian Federation by carrying out settlements on behalf of authorized

executive authorities and state non-budgetary funds, which are responsible for organizing the execution and execution of budgets;

Carries out effective management of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Russia;

Decides on the state registration of credit institutions, issues licenses to credit institutions for banking operations, suspends their operation and revokes them;

Supervises the activities of credit institutions and banking groups;

Registers the issue of securities by credit institutions;

Carries out all types of banking operations and other transactions necessary to perform the functions of the Bank of Russia;

Organizes and implements currency regulation and currency control in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation;

Determines the procedure for making settlements with international organizations, foreign states, as well as with legal entities and individuals;

Establishes accounting and reporting rules for the banking system

Establishes the procedure and conditions for the implementation by currency exchanges of activities to organize the conduct of operations for the purchase and sale of foreign currency;

It analyzes and forecasts the state of the Russian economy, publishes materials and statistical data.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is a single centralized system with a vertical management structure. The system includes: the central office, territorial offices, settlement

cash centers, computer centers, field institutions and educational institutions, vaults, as well as other enterprises, institutions and organizations, including security units, necessary for the successful operation of the bank. The structure of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is clearly shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2 - Scheme of the structure of the Central Bank of Russia

The national banks of the republics that are part of the Russian Federation are territorial institutions of the Bank of Russia. They do not have the status of a legal entity and do not have the right to make decisions of a regulatory nature, as well as issue guarantees and sureties, promissory notes and other obligations without the permission of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia.

The tasks and functions of the territorial institutions of the Bank of Russia are determined by the Regulations on these institutions approved by the Board of Directors. Currently, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is considering the possibility that they can be created in economic regions that unite the territories of several constituent entities of the Russian Federation. According to the Regulations of the Bank of Russia, "a territorial institution of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (TU) is a separate subdivision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which performs part of its functions in the territory of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation."

The territorial institutions of the Bank of Russia are its main departments in the territories, regions and autonomous districts of the Russian Federation, the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, the National Banks of the republics within the Russian Federation. The territorial institutions of the Bank of Russia do not have the status of a legal entity. By decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank

In Russia, territorial institutions can be created for economic regions that unite the territories of several constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

The supreme body of the Bank of Russia is the Board of Directors. This is a collegial body that determines the main areas of activity of the Bank of Russia and manages it. The Board of Directors includes the Chairman of the Bank of Russia and 12 members of the Board.

Members of the Board of Directors work here on a permanent basis. They are approved by the State Duma on the proposal of the Chairman of the Bank, who is also the Chairman of the Board of Directors.

The Board of Directors, in cooperation with the Government, develops a unified state monetary policy and ensures its implementation.

The structure and staffing of the central office of the Bank of Russia, as well as the charters of its other structural divisions, are approved by this Council. The Board of Directors not only heads and organizes the work of the Bank of Russia, but also regulates the activities of the country's commercial banks.

Along with it, the National Banking Council functions outside the bank. It includes representatives of the President, representatives of the highest bodies of legislative and executive power, and experts. The total number of the council does not exceed 15 people. Council members are approved by the State Duma on the proposal of the Chairman of the Bank of Russia.

The functional structure implies the existence of separate divisions (departments, departments) in the bank, which implement the functions of the bank in accordance with the division of its activities into separate parts. If the volumes of tasks solved by these departments are large enough, then additional, smaller structural units - departments - can be created inside them. This functional structure is presented in Appendix A.

For the normal functioning of the monetary system, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation uses the following tools and methods of monetary policy:

Interest rates on Bank of Russia operations;

Required reserve ratios deposited with the Bank of the Russian Federation (reserve requirements);

Open market operations;

Bank refinancing;

Currency regulation;

Cash management;

Direct quantitative restrictions;

Issue of own securities.

2.2 Characteristics of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, carried out in 2008 - 2009

The form of monetary emission of the Bank of Russia - foreign exchange interventions - is closely tied to the foreign currency entering Russia. The recipients of such "emission" non-cash rubles are mainly large resident exporters who are obliged to sell part of their foreign exchange earnings, who become owners of excess amounts of money in rubles. Such resident organizations and lending institutions servicing them experience certain difficulties in placing on the monetary market or reinvesting their free ruble resources. With the mechanism of monetary regulation that has developed in Russia, they cannot receive the necessary funds for a period sufficient to carry out the investment process. The rubles emitted by the Bank of Russia in the process of foreign exchange interventions do not reach them, and the imperfection of the banking system, distrust between credit institutions and small enterprises, the high cost of bank loans do not allow them to acquire the necessary credit funds in the banking services market.

As a result of the low capitalization of the banking system, reliance on self-financing, and insufficient development of the corporate bond market, there was no active use of national savings. Therefore, both public and private savings went abroad, including in the form of accumulated state reserves, which were subsequently borrowed to invest in Russian companies. Those. due to the fact that the domestic interbank market was focused on external refinancing (the share of loans from non-resident banks exceeded 70% of the total volume of loans received by banks from other credit institutions), the almost complete suspension of foreign loans to Russian banks as a result of the global financial crisis negatively affected the functioning of the entire money market.

As a result, a low level of confidence in the ruble was formed due to a decrease in the inflow of foreign currency into the country and a significant, comparable to our reserves, level of external corporate debt of companies and banks, which, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as of 01.10.2008, amounted to. about $388.9 billion in foreign currency and the equivalent of $108.7 billion in rubles. In the 4th quarter of 2008 Russian companies and banks had to return to non-residents on previously taken loans about 47.5 billion dollars (42.5 - debt, 5 - percent), but in 2009. - already 115.7 billion dollars (100.1 - debt, 15.6 - interest). Therefore, the money that in the fall of 2009. were allocated to support the banking system, largely ended up in the foreign exchange market, not reaching the economy, reducing the country's reserves. (The gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation for the period from 08/01/2008 to 10/24/2008, i.e. for almost 3 months, decreased by 18.6% - 111.2 billion dollars (from 595.9 to 484.7 billion dollars) .

However, in general, the level of monetization of the Russian economy is low (about 40%). Therefore, the main problem, and, in fact, the cause of the crisis is the shortage of rubles. At the same time, one of the most important economic parameters is the volume and dynamics of the money supply (M2), which represents the volume of cash in circulation (outside banks) and balances in national currency on the accounts of legal entities (except banks) and individuals, which largely determines demand in the economy. As of September 1, 2008, the growth of the M2 money supply just before the development of the crisis amounted to only 9.5% (with benchmarks of 30-35%), with inflation over the same period of 9.7%. By the beginning of September, the real volume of the money supply practically did not increase. The M2 value as of 01.09.2008 amounted to 14,530.1 billion rubles, and its growth in September as of 01.10.2008 under the influence of capital outflow became negative - 1.1%, amounting to 8.3% since the beginning of the year (M2 as of 01.10. .2008 - 14,374.6 billion rubles).

Table 1 - Money supply in 2009 (billion rubles)

According to Table 1, during 2009, the money supply was declining for almost the entire period compared to the beginning of the year, and the growth for the year was 16.3%.

At the same time, as can be seen from Table 2 and the diagram built on its basis (Figure 3), until 2008. there was a constant increase in the money supply. In 2000

2008 the seasonal growth of the M2 aggregate averaged about 19.7%, and also about 44% per year. Therefore, the reason for the reduction in the money supply during the period

The crisis was caused by the chosen direction of monetary regulation and, to a large extent, “savings” of budget expenditures in order to combat inflation. At the same time, the experience of 7 years of economic growth showed that the growth of consumer prices did not directly depend on the rate of increase in the money supply (M2) (as well as the opposite trend) and that the growth of the money supply with an increase in the degree of monetization contributed, along with the strengthening of the ruble, to a decrease in inflation.

Table 2 - Main parameters of the monetary policy and economy of the Russian Federation in 2000

Figure 3 - Dynamics of money supply and inflation in 2000-2008

As can be seen from Table 2 and the diagram built on its basis (Figure

3), until 2008 there was a constant growth in the money supply. In 2000-2008 the seasonal growth of the M2 aggregate averaged about 19.7%, and also about 44% per year. Therefore, the reason for the reduction in the money supply during the crisis was the chosen direction of monetary regulation and, to a large extent, the "savings" of budget expenditures in order to combat inflation. At the same time, the experience of 7 years of economic growth showed the absence of a direct dependence of consumer price growth on the rate of increase in the money supply (M2) (as well as the opposite trend) and that the growth of the money supply with an increase in the degree of monetization contributed, along with the strengthening of the ruble, to a decrease in inflation.

In addition, one of the weaknesses of the Russian monetary system is the revaluation of the ruble against other currencies, including dollars (the “currency band” problem). Due to the serious revaluation of the ruble with the decline in oil prices and the reduction in the inflow of foreign exchange earnings into the country, it became necessary to go for a significant weakening of the ruble against foreign currencies. This weakening caused a trend towards dollarization of the country, partial abandonment of the ruble due to its depreciation in calculations, and other undesirable phenomena. Over the past 4 months of the crisis, the population has acquired 70 billion dollars, and 1/4 of deposits in banks have become foreign currency. Attempts to contain such a depreciation of the ruble led to the cost of large amounts of gold and foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, it is necessary to gradually and carefully bring the ruble to the market exchange rate and avoid strong distortions in the future.

The most important problem of the Russian financial system is its small scale. The ratio of banking system assets to GDP as of 01.01.2008 is about 61%, while in developed countries it is over 100%. The banking system is not sufficiently developed, the reasons for this are the personal poverty of a significant part of the population (about 30-40%), which contributes to a decrease in savings, as well as enormous regional development disproportions, in which about 60% of all financial resources are concentrated in Moscow. A significant reason for the backwardness of the economy and financial markets is the lack of market capitalization of a significant amount of the country's resources, which creates the need to develop the country's financial infrastructure, send money to the most backward regions, increase the money supply and government spending adequately to economic growth, lend against assets, create effective mechanisms for refinancing banking systems .

Based on the foregoing, we can conclude that a serious reason that gives rise to problems in the monetary sphere of Russia is the lack of high-quality legal norms that establish an interconnected system of institutions that form a single agreed mechanism for regulating monetary relations, delimiting their competence, determining the order of interaction and distribution of responsibility between them.

Let us consider in more detail the directions of monetary policy during the financial crisis and the measures to overcome it.

At the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008, the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia as a whole was characterized by a lack of consistency and clarity of methodological approaches. This was expressed in a vague definition of the main objectives of the interest rate policy, the lack of development of a methodology for assessing the demand for money and conceptual approaches to the formation of the money supply, inefficient management of gold and foreign exchange reserves, the absence of systemic measures to form an international financial center on the Russian territory, insufficient policy coherence with the state of the financial market and banking sector. In particular, when developing the main directions of monetary policy, the Bank of Russia does not determine its objects and features of the transmission mechanism.

During the period when Russia entered the global recession, the Bank of Russia, in cooperation with the Government, developed various measures taken to ensure the stability of the financial system, which can be divided into two groups: interest rate policy and other measures.

The activation of the interest rate policy was one of the first measures taken by the Bank of Russia in response to the changed conditions for the development of the economy and the high level of inflation. Interest rate policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2008-2009. can be divided into two stages. At the first stage, the Bank of Russia raised the refinancing rate six times. At the same time, prior to the first rate increase during the crisis, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered rates on a number of instruments for providing liquidity to credit institutions, without changing the refinancing rate. This measure was designed to facilitate banks' access to liquid resources. As a result of the increases, the refinancing rate increased from 11% to 13% per annum, and the rates on CBR loans to commercial banks increased by a comparable amount. The main reason for the increase in interest rates was the desire of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to increase the cost of resources attracted from it by credit institutions and then invested in foreign exchange assets.

As the situation on the financial markets stabilized, the Bank of Russia began to gradually ease its monetary policy. In April-December 2009, the RF Central Bank reduced interest rates seven times. During this period, the refinancing rate was reduced from 13 to 8.75% per annum (see Table 3, Figure 2), and the rates on Bank of Russia operations - by 3.5-4.5 percentage points. However, as the Bank of Russia itself admits, its interest rate policy does not yet have a decisive impact on the structure of market rates, and, consequently, on the real terms of borrowing in the Russian economy, which is due to the presence of excessive and diverse rates on transactions with banks and the absence of clearly defined benchmarks. in interest rate policy

Table 3 shows the refinancing rates of the Central Bank for different periods of time.

Table 3 - Dynamics of the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of Russia

Validity	Refinancing rate, %

Figure 4 - Dynamics of the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of Russia

With the help of the instrument of reserve requirements, the Bank of Russia gave a quick response to the need to expand the money supply. In conditions when bank liquidity had to be quickly adjusted, and the financial market did not allow it, reserve requirements proved to be especially useful. For these purposes, the Bank of Russia has decided to temporarily reduce from September 18, 2008 reserve requirements by 4 percentage points for each category of reserve liabilities. From October 15, 2008, reserve requirements amounted to 0.5% for all types of liabilities with their subsequent increase starting from May 1, 2009 to 1%, from June 1, 2009 to 1.5%, from July 1, 2009. up to 2%, from August 1, 2009 to 2.5%.

Changes in the conditions for the implementation of monetary policy determined the need for the Bank of Russia to increase the priority of achieving the goal of maintaining banking stability through open market operations. On September 18, 2008, the Bank of Russia lowered fixed interest rates on its 1-day liquidity provision operations (direct REPO, "currency swap", Lombard loans) from 9% to 8% per annum, and the minimum interest rate on Lombard credit auctions for a period of 2 weeks has been changed from 8 to 7.5% per annum. Interest rates on loans from the Bank of Russia secured by non-marketable assets or guarantees were also reduced: for up to 30 days - from 10 to 9.5% per annum, for up to 90 days - from 8 to 7.5% per annum, for a period of 91 up to 180 days - from 9 to 8.5% per annum.

In addition, the Bank of Russia softened the conditions for receiving funds using certain types of collateral: abolished 1.25% discounts on direct REPO operations with OFZ and OBR, increased the values ​​of the Bank of Russia adjustment coefficients used to calculate the value of Bank of Russia bonds, as well as the adjustment coefficients of the Bank of Russia used to calculate the value of collateral for Bank of Russia loans secured by non-marketable assets and guarantees from credit institutions were increased by 0.2.

In order to reduce the volatility of short-term interbank lending rates, since September 2008, the Bank of Russia began to set a limit on the amount of funds placed at the first direct REPO auction. In order to restore the efficiency of the bond market and provide additional liquidity to credit institutions in October 2008, direct REPO operations were restored for a period of three months without setting the lower and upper limits of the discount, which implies no discount before payment of compensatory contributions.

However, it was not possible to keep the rates in the indicated sizes for a long time. On February 9, 2009, in order to take additional measures to contain inflationary trends and ensure the stability of the ruble exchange rate, the Bank of Russia decided to raise interest rates on lending operations and direct REPO transactions.

For direct REPO operations (at fixed interest rates)

for a period of 1 day - 11% per annum, for a period of 7 days - 11% per annum;

The minimum interest rate on Lombard loan auctions for a period of two weeks is 9.5% per annum;

For loans secured by non-marketable assets or guarantees for up to 90 calendar days - in the amount of 11% per annum, for a period of 91 to 180 calendar days - in the amount of 11.5% per annum.

Despite the active use of the refinancing instrument, the use of its types provided for by law in the crisis phase turned out to be insufficient, and therefore on October 20, 2008 the Central Bank tested a new tool to support the financial system - providing Russian credit institutions with loans without collateral for a period of not more than six months, and from December 30, 2008 for a period not exceeding one year. According to experts, this kind of refinancing was urgently needed by credit institutions to combat the liquidity crisis. According to a review of the banking sector, in the worst month of 2008 - October - credit institutions had to borrow from the Central Bank an unprecedentedly large amount - 1.2 trillion. rubles, which in terms of volume corresponds to about a third of the equity capital of all Russian banks. These borrowings allowed credit institutions to compensate for losses incurred due to the revaluation of the securities portfolio and the outflow of deposits, as well as the costs of issuing loans.

Given the active withdrawal of funds from Russian assets by investors and the associated increase in demand for foreign currency, the actions of the Bank of Russia were aimed at preventing an excessive weakening of the ruble and maintaining the value of the dual-currency basket. In this regard, in August-December 2008, the Bank of Russia sold foreign currency on the domestic market. As a result, the volume of international reserves dropped sharply and their total volume as of January 1, 2009 fell to $427.1 billion. Many experts assessed the spending of international reserves to support the ruble as an "inadequate policy." However, this policy continued until January 2009 in order to avoid sharp fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. In order to avoid devaluation, on January 23, 2009, the upper limit of the currency band for the value of the dual-currency basket was set at 41 rubles. The results of the devaluation became noticeable already in the first quarter of 2009. Since the beginning of February, the Bank of Russia has not sold foreign currency on the foreign exchange market. Moreover, in order to prevent strong fluctuations in the exchange rate on certain days, he had to buy foreign currency. Thus, according to the data in Table 4 and Figure 5, the value of foreign currency by 2009 for seven years (since 2003) reached its maximum value: 30.24 per dollar and 43.39 per euro (at the end of the year) .

Table 4 - Dynamics of foreign exchange rates against the ruble for the period 2000-2009

Figure 5 - Dynamics of official foreign exchange rates against the ruble in 2000-2009

Such an instrument of monetary regulation as the establishment of benchmarks for the growth of the money supply manifested itself during the crisis in the following. The processes of transformation of ruble savings into foreign currency assets, the decline in the money supply, which affect the dynamics of budget revenues, which are the source of the formation of the reserve fund and the national welfare fund, determined the need to clarify the net credit to the general government before the end of 2008. Other indicators of the monetary program (including net credit to banks and other net unclassified assets), taking into account the measures taken by the Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia to support the financial sector.

In addition, the Bank of Russia issued bonds on its own behalf. In September 2008, a new OBR issue was placed, however, due to the fact that during the indicated period credit institutions began to experience a lack of liquidity, the volume of OBR placements at the auction was half that of the Bank of Russia buying its bonds on the secondary market. In October 2008, the debt of the Bank of Russia to credit institutions practically did not change. Only the auction held on October 2 was recognized as successful, with the placed volume of only about 10 million rubles. at a weighted average rate of 6.3% per annum. In November 2008-February 2009, the instruments of the Bank of Russia for absorbing liquidity also remained of little demand.

As a result of the measures discussed above, the situation in the banking sector has stabilized: it has been possible to avoid the bankruptcy of many banks, to stop the outflow of household deposits, and to continue lending to the economy. The outflow of household deposits from banks peaked in October (then it amounted to 6% and practically stopped in November). In December, the inflow of funds from the population into deposits resumed. The liquidity situation has normalized.

Thus, the package of anti-crisis measures implemented by the Bank of Russia at the height of the crisis, as a whole, corresponded to the standard scheme of foreign authors, but was to a certain extent inconsistent. In general, it was possible to prevent the spread of "banking panic" and partially restore the confidence of economic entities in the national banking system. Among the stabilization anti-crisis measures, it is necessary to single out: strengthening the resource base of banks and saturating the banking system with additional liquidity, increasing the capital of systemically important banks, increasing up to 700 thousand rubles. state guarantees for the safety of deposits of individuals, the decision to prevent the bankruptcy of banks through reorganization, mergers and other measures, a “smooth” devaluation of the national currency, permission not to temporarily revalue bank assets at the current market value, strengthening the protection of the legal rights of creditors.

2.3 Monetary policy in 2010-2011

In 2010-2011 The Bank of Russia pursued its monetary policy based on the need to create favorable conditions for the long-term economic development of the country. The low level of inflation and the stability of the national currency were the basis for making effective decisions in the field of savings, investments and consumer spending - the basics for sustainable economic growth. Therefore, the main goal

the unified state monetary policy pursued by the Bank of Russia jointly with the Government of the Russian Federation for this period was a steady decline in inflation and maintaining it at a low level, while it was supposed to reduce inflation to 8.7-9.2% in 2010 and 78 .5% in 2011.

To achieve its goals, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation used all the monetary policy instruments available to it, which made it possible to quickly respond to changes in the intensity and direction of financial flows within the framework of the monetary policy goals.

The system of monetary policy instruments was supposed to ensure the stability of the money market and, at the same time, encourage credit institutions to manage their own liquidity more efficiently.

If banks needed additional liquidity, they could use the set of instruments offered by the Bank of Russia for these purposes. During the day, these could be secured intraday loans provided by the Bank of Russia without charging a fee, as well as auctions of one-day direct REPO held in the morning and afternoon. In addition, on a weekly basis, the Bank of Russia carried out operations to provide liquidity to banks for longer periods. At the end of the trading day, credit institutions had access to standing instruments of the Bank of Russia - overnight loans and FX swaps, the interest rates for which were set at the level of the refinancing rate.

The Central Bank of Russia regulated refinancing rates taking into account the real state of the economy, inflation dynamics, the situation in various segments of the money market and was focused on consolidating the emerging positive trends.

Since the beginning of 2010, the Bank of Russia has twice decided to reduce the refinancing rate on January 15, 2010 from 16% to 14% per annum, and on June 15, 2010, from 14 to 13% per annum. Its next decrease occurred only at the end of December 2011 - it was lowered to 12%.

When managing liquidity, in Q2 2011, credit institutions actively used the mechanism of intraday lending and overnight loans of the Bank of Russia, the largest volume of which fell on April 2011. In general, the volume of intraday loans provided by the Bank of Russia increased from 2.3 trillion. rub. in the first quarter of 2011 to 2.6 trillion. rub. in the II quarter, and overnight loans - from 5.9 to 14.3 billion rubles. respectively. At the end of each calendar month, there was a traditional increase in demand for intraday loans from credit institutions and the volume of "overnight" loans provided.

Against the backdrop of a downward trend in inflation dynamics, from 06/26/2010 the Bank of Russia reduced the refinancing rate and interest rates on overnight loans and FX swap transactions from 12 to 11.5% per annum, and from 23 October - to 11%. However, the refinancing rate in the period 2010-2011 did not have a significant impact on monetary indicators, primarily due to the fact that, in conditions of excess liquidity, commercial banks did not experience a significant need for borrowing from the Central Bank.

In 2010, the decision of the Bank of Russia to reduce the required reserve ratios, which were adopted in order to gradually level out competitive conditions for Russian and foreign credit institutions, played a major role in resolving the problem of shortage of ruble liquidity in the money market in 2010.

On July 8, 2010, the required reserves ratio for deposits of individuals in the currency of the Russian Federation was reduced from 7% to 3.5%, as a result of which the amount of released funds amounted to more than 150 billion rubles. In addition, since July 1, 2010, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation granted the right to average the required reserves to credit institutions within the averaging ratio of 0.2 established by the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia. The use of this mechanism also contributed to the increase in the liquidity of credit institutions.

The required reserves ratio for liabilities to individuals in the currency of the Russian Federation and the required reserves ratio for other liabilities of credit institutions in the currency of the Russian Federation and liabilities in foreign currency did not change in 2011. During this period, credit institutions actively used the averaging of required reserves, that is, they fulfilled a part of the required reserves by maintaining the corresponding average monthly balance of funds on the correspondent account and correspondent sub-accounts of the credit institution with the Bank of Russia. The number of credit institutions that were granted the right to average the required reserves constantly increased and in June 2011 reached 681 (or 55.2% of the total number of operating credit institutions).

Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the period from 2010-2011. gradually reduced the norm of mandatory requirements for credit institutions so that they began to lend on a larger scale to the real sector of the economy and, above all, to the manufacturing sector. However, commercial organizations were not particularly eager to lend to the domestic industry due to the high risk and complexity of assessing the economic situation. Thus, the reservation itself is an ineffective instrument of monetary policy, since there is little, which adds to the existing persistent reluctance of banks to funnel money into the economy.

In 2010, the situation on the domestic foreign exchange market was formed under the influence of an increase in the supply of foreign currency from exporters as a result of the continued rise in oil prices, as well as an increase in the investment attractiveness of ruble assets against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar on the world market. In this situation, the Bank of Russia sought to maintain the balance of supply and demand in the domestic

foreign exchange market, carrying out large-scale purchases of foreign currency during periods of increased upward pressure on the ruble exchange rate. Based on the results for the Russian Federation on foreign currencies, from February 1, 2010, the Bank of Russia switched to using as a new operational benchmark the cost of a dual-currency basket denominated in rubles, consisting of US dollars and euros in proportions established by the Bank of Russia. At the same time, the formation of the US dollar exchange rate against the ruble in the domestic foreign exchange market during the day and a period of several days acquired a freer character, and operations to limit intraday and short-term fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate against the ruble were carried out by the Bank of Russia based on the boundaries of fluctuations in the value of the dual-currency basket. From August 1, the dual-currency basket consisted of 0.35 euros and 0.65 dollars. USA. Over 10 months, the volume of purchases of foreign currency by the Bank of Russia amounted to more than 11 billion dollars.

In July-September 2010, the Bank of Russia carried out both the sale of government bonds from its own portfolio and the purchase of government securities. In general, the volume of net sales of government securities by the Bank of Russia for the third quarter remained at the level of the previous quarter (2.6 billion rubles) .

In the first half of 2011 The Central Bank of the Russian Federation continued to conduct monetary policy within the framework of the managed floating ruble exchange rate regime.

In order to keep the volatility of the ruble exchange rate against foreign currencies significant for the Russian Federation at a relatively low level, in 2011 the Bank of Russia continues to use the ruble value of the basket of euros and US dollars as an operational benchmark.

In 2011, the ratio of supply and demand in the domestic foreign exchange market was determined by the high current account surplus of the balance of payments, due to the inflow of significant additional export earnings into the Russian economy due to the favorable external economic situation, as well as cross-border capital flows. Under these conditions, the operations of the Bank of Russia in the domestic foreign exchange market were mainly aimed at preventing an excessive appreciation of the effective ruble exchange rate under the influence of an excess supply of foreign currency. The result of these transactions was a net purchase of foreign currency. In particular, in January-September 2011. The Bank of Russia acted as a net buyer of foreign currency.

The growth rate of deposits in foreign currency (in dollar terms) in the first half of 2011 amounted to 10.2%, which is two times lower than the growth rate of deposits in the national currency.

The dynamics of net foreign assets of the banking system was an important source of the increase in the money supply, taking into account deposits in foreign currency. With an increase in the total volume of this monetary aggregate by 1083.7 billion rubles. net foreign assets increased by 1,366.8 billion rubles, while domestic credit to the economy decreased by 204.6 billion rubles. (in 2010 - an increase of 717.2 and 1169.7 billion rubles and a reduction of 857.9 billion rubles, respectively).

For the period 2010-2011. The increase in the nominal effective exchange rate of the ruble played a significant role in reducing inflation. Last year, the nominal effective exchange rate appreciated by 3.2%. In the first five months of this year, it increased by another 1.5%. In early June, the Bank of Russia raised the ruble exchange rate against the dual-currency basket by about 0.6% more.

In order to absorb free liquidity, the Bank of Russia continued to carry out operations with its bonds in the quarter of 2011.

OBR was sold mainly at auctions. The largest investments in OBR (80.2 billion rubles) were made by credit institutions at the auction on June 15 (after the buyout of the third OBR issue under the offer), while the total volume of OBR sales at auctions in April-June 2011 amounted to 108.2 billion . rub. at market value. The weighted average yield formed at OBR auctions in April-June 2011 ranged from 4.53 to 5.20% per annum (in Q1 - from 4.60 to 5.14% per annum). According to daily quotations issued by the Bank of Russia, the volumes of purchases by OBR credit institutions in the secondary market significantly exceeded the volumes of their sales.

In 2011, the Bank of Russia also sold government bonds from its own portfolio without an obligation to repurchase in the amount of 0.43 billion rubles.

In general, from 2010-2011. the operations of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the open market contributed to a gradual increase in the liquidity of the OBR market and, as a result, to the expansion of the sterilization capabilities of the Bank of Russia.

The monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the period from 2010-2011 turned out to be relatively ineffective in its goal, which is clearly seen from Table 5.

Table 5 - Forecast and actual inflation indicators for 2010-2011

It should be noted that since 2010, the banking system has been receiving money mainly through foreign exchange interventions, but their inflow was so large that the Central Bank had to sterilize part of these receipts, and mainly through open market operations.

In general, speaking about the effectiveness of monetary policy in Russia in the period from 2008-2011, we can say that it still remains at a low level, since the declared targets do not coincide with the actual results, but there are prospects.

3 Prospects for development and measures to improve the monetary policy of the Russian Federation

3.1 Macroeconomic scenarios, goals and instruments for 2013 and the period of 2014 and 2015

Within the framework of the forecasts of the IMF and other international organizations, assuming a slight increase in global economic growth in 2013, a moderate acceleration of economic growth in the countries that are Russia's main trading partners is possible, with a similar trend continuing in 2014-2015. According to the IMF forecast, the growth rate of production of goods and services in the world will increase from 3.5% in 2012 to 3.9% in 2013. According to forecasts, in 2013 inflation will continue to decline in foreign countries, including Russia's main trading partners. Its acceleration is not expected in 2014-2015 either.

The projected increase in business activity in the world will support the current level of consumption of oil and other Russian exports, which will mitigate the risks of a deterioration in the country's balance of payments.

Key interest rates in the leading economies will remain low in 2013, which will help create conditions for capital inflow into the Russian economy. The movement of cross-border capital flows will depend on the state of foreign financial systems and the conjuncture of the global financial market, the mood of global investors. Risks of capital outflow will remain.

The Bank of Russia considered three options for the conditions for conducting monetary policy in 2013-2015, one of which is in line with the forecast of the Government of the Russian Federation. The scenarios are based on different dynamics of oil prices.

Under the first option, the Bank of Russia assumes a reduction in 2013 of the average annual price for Russian Urals oil on the world market to $73 per barrel. This is shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6 - Urals oil price (US dollars per barrel)

Under these conditions, in 2013 the real disposable money income of the population may decrease by 0.4%, investments in fixed assets - by 2.1%. The decline in GDP may be 0.4%.

The second option considers the forecast of the Government of the Russian Federation, which is the basis for developing the parameters of the federal budget for 2013-2015. It is assumed that in 2013 the price of Russian oil may reach $97 per barrel.

This option reflects the development of the economy in the context of the implementation of an active state policy aimed at improving the investment climate, increasing competitiveness and business efficiency, stimulating economic growth and modernization, as well as increasing the efficiency of budget spending. According to this variant, in 2013 the increase in real disposable money income of the population is projected at the level of 3.7%. The volume of investments in fixed assets may increase by 7.2%. Under these conditions, the volume of GDP may increase by 3.7%.

Under the third option, the Bank of Russia assumes an increase in the price of Urals oil in 2013 to $121 per barrel.

In the context of increasing income from the export of Russian goods in 2013, an increase in investment activity is expected. The growth rate of investment in fixed assets may accelerate to 7.6%, and real disposable money income of the population - up to 4%. The increase in GDP is expected at the level of 4%.

In 2014-2015, the increase in GDP, depending on the forecast option, may be 2-5%.

The balance of payments forecast shown in the figure for 2013-2015 according to the second option is based on the assumption of an insignificant change in the price of Urals oil on the world market (from 97 to 104 US dollars per barrel). In the first and third options, oil prices are expected to deviate from the specified range by a quarter up and down.

Figure 7 - Forecast of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation for 2013-2015

In accordance with the scenario conditions for the functioning of the economy of the Russian Federation, the Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia set the task of reducing inflation in 2013 to 5-6%, in 2014 and 2015

Up to 4-5% (on the basis of December to December of the previous year). The specified target for inflation in the consumer market corresponds to core inflation at the level of 4.7-5.7% in 2013, 3.6-4.6% in 2014 and 2015.

Calculations under the monetary program for 2013-2015 were made on the basis of indicators of demand for money that correspond to inflation targets, the forecast dynamics of GDP and other macroeconomic indicators, as well as the forecast of the balance of payments and the parameters of the draft federal budget .

Depending on the forecast options, the growth rate of the M2 monetary aggregate in 2013 may be 9-18%, in 2014 and 2015 - 14-19% per year.

The Bank of Russia has developed three variants of the monetary program. The second version of the program is based on macroeconomic indicators used in the formation of the draft federal budget for 2013 and the planned period of 2014-2015. The monetary base growth rate in a narrow definition, corresponding to inflation targets and estimates of economic growth dynamics, may amount to 7-14% in 2013 in 2013, and 11-14% annually in 2014-2015 .

The first version of the program assumes an increase in net credit to the enlarged government by 0.5 trillion. rubles in 2013, by 0.4 trillion. rubles - in 2014, by 0.3 trillion. rubles - in 2015. According to the calculations under the program, if this scenario is implemented in 2013-2015, the increase in net credit to banks may amount to 1.0-1.6 trillion. rubles per year due to the activation of the operations of the Bank of Russia to provide liquidity to the banking sector. Under these conditions, by the end of 2015, the volume of gross credit to banks may exceed 60% of the monetary base.

The second variant of the monetary program assumes moderate dynamics of world oil prices within the forecast period. In 2013, the increase in NIR, corresponding to the indicators of the forecast of the balance of payments, will amount to 0.6 trillion. rubles, in 2014 - 0.5 trillion. rubles, and in 2015 - 0.3 trillion. rubles.

Under the third option of the monetary program, based on the scenario of high oil prices, the projected increase in NIR in 2013 will be 2.9 trillion. rubles, in 2014 - 2.7 trillion. rubles, in 2015 - 2.4 trillion. rubles.

Under this scenario, in 2013 net credit to banks is expected to decrease by 0.2 trillion. rubles.

The main objectives of the exchange rate policy for 2013 and the period of 2014-2015 will be to further reduce the direct intervention of the Bank of Russia in the exchange rate mechanism and create conditions for the transition to a floating exchange rate regime by 2015.

In 2013 and 2014 The Bank of Russia will continue to implement its exchange rate policy without hindering the formation of trends in the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate due to the action of fundamental macroeconomic factors, and without setting any fixed restrictions on the level of the national currency exchange rate. At the same time, during this period, the Bank of Russia will increase exchange rate flexibility gradually, softening the process of adaptation of market participants to exchange rate fluctuations caused by external shocks .

After the transition to a floating exchange rate regime, the Bank of Russia intends to abandon the use of operational benchmarks of the exchange rate policy associated with the levels of the exchange rate. At the same time, even after the transition to this regime, the Bank of Russia admits the possibility of conducting interventions in the domestic foreign exchange market, the volume of which will be determined taking into account the situation on the money market.

The system of instruments will continue to take into account the peculiarities of interaction between the Bank of Russia and regional credit institutions, the characteristics of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the state of the Russian financial market.

The basis of the current system of monetary policy instruments - the interest rate corridor of the Bank of Russia will remain in the period under review, while the Bank of Russia will consider the possibility of narrowing it in order to increase the effectiveness of interest rate policy. Deposit operations and standing refinancing operations for a period of 1 day will be used as instruments that ensure that short-term interbank market rates are within the interest band.

The use of refinancing instruments for terms of more than 1 week will be aimed primarily at maintaining financial stability. In order to limit the impact of these operations on the relevant segment of the market interest rate curve and prevent distortion of interest rate policy signals, the Bank of Russia will consider the advisability of switching to their implementation at a floating rate. In this case, it is not excluded that the system of instruments of the Bank of Russia will be supplemented by swap transactions with foreign currency and precious metals for up to 1 year in order to expand the access of credit institutions to refinancing for these periods.

The Bank of Russia will also continue to use required reserve ratios as an instrument of monetary policy, making decisions to change them depending on the macroeconomic situation and the state of liquidity in the banking sector.

In addition to working to improve its own system of instruments, the Bank of Russia attaches great importance to interaction with government agencies on the implementation of monetary policy and the development of financial markets. Cooperation will continue with the Russian Ministry of Finance and the Federal Treasury on the development of a mechanism for placing temporarily free budget funds in the banking sector, the task of which is to minimize the seasonal impact of budgetary flows on the volume of liquidity in the banking sector.

3.2 Measures to improve Russia's monetary policy

The main goal of monetary policy within the framework of the financial stabilization program is to maintain low current inflation rates and create conditions for the growth of investments, ensuring favorable dynamics of the national currency exchange rate, contributing to the improvement of the balance of payments.

To achieve this goal, the efforts of the monetary authorities should be focused on solving the following tasks:

Limitation of the money supply to the volume necessary for the implementation of economic activity;

Optimization of the structure of the money supply and its distribution between sectors and subjects of the economy;

Preventing the outflow of capital abroad;

Maintaining foreign exchange reserves at a given level.

The solution of these problems requires the implementation of a set of measures listed below. In order to achieve inflation control and maintain the dynamic stability of the national currency, it is necessary to limit the growth rate of the money supply and fluctuations in interest rates on loans and deposits to the economy. Operational regulation of bank liquidity and interbank market rates will ensure the stability of settlements and reduce speculation in the money market. Limiting the growth of the national currency during periods of inflation, direct lending to the state budget deficit, a phased transfer of claims on the government for domestic debt into medium-term government securities and with a positive real interest rate that ensures their yield at the level of government securities should not be allowed.

Short-term lending to the cash gap in state budget revenues and expenditures through the purchase of state short-term securities will create conditions for prompt support of the state budget in market forms, and it is also necessary to set a ceiling for the growth of the money supply and net domestic assets of the Central Bank in order to limit the growth of the money supply - this is a guaranteed restriction inflation rates and the predictability of its change.

It is necessary to set the discount rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at a level not lower than the standard in force in neighboring countries; this, in the end, should lead to a decrease in inflation, an increase in investment activity, and stabilization of production.

Also, the most important tool for improving monetary policy should be the improvement of the system of refinancing commercial banks to stabilize the supply of money to the country's economy. This can be achieved through the following measures:

1) ensuring the creation of a corridor of base refinancing rates for banks on the basis of auction and pawn loans, which will make it possible to switch from quantitative to price methods of regulating bank liquidity and reduce rates on loans to the economy;

2) improving the procedure for quickly responding to changes in the volume of bank liquidity and fluctuations in interbank market rates through operations on the open market will ensure a fine adjustment of the level of interbank market rates in a given corridor of base refinancing rates;

3) streamlining the procedures for providing a standby loan to individual banks experiencing a short-term lack of liquidity will ensure the stability of the banking system during liquidity crises in large banks that have an impact on the economy;

4) limiting the issue of short-term obligations of the Central Bank as the issue of government securities expands, will save public funds for the purpose of regulating the money market (300-400 billion rubles per year). And the last step

improvement should be the improvement of the system of reserve requirements for commercial banks;

5) differentiation of the mandatory reserve systems for bank deposits, aimed at increasing the share of long-term deposits as a resource for increasing investment activity in the country, will increase banking liquidity, stimulate the growth of long-term deposits and reduce the mass of "hot money", and increase investment in the economy;

6) the implementation of a gradual revision of the mandatory reserve norms in the direction of their reduction as the inflation rate decreases and the demand for credit resources for long-term investments grows, this should result in a balance of business activity and money supply in the economy, increasing the mobility of the money supply;

7) creation of a system for monitoring the situation in the money market and the capital market and, on this basis, the implementation of modeling and forecasting of financial flows in conjunction with the processes of the country's macroeconomic development; this contributes to an increase in the efficiency of state regulation of the money market.

In order to achieve the goals that the Central Bank has set for itself for 2013-2015, it is reasonable to use the measures described above.

Conclusion

The main conductor of monetary policy in the Russian Federation is the Bank of Russia, which currently most actively uses four main monetary policy instruments: regulation of the volume of refinancing of commercial banks, changes in the required reserve ratios, open market operations and foreign exchange interventions. With the help of these tools, the Bank of Russia strives to fulfill the main goal of monetary policy - a smooth decline in inflation. The conducted analysis of monetary policy in Russia in the period from 2000-2006. showed an insufficient connection between the policy actually pursued by the Bank of Russia and the goals declared by it in program documents. The deviations of the declared targets from the actual results are too large to speak about the effectiveness of the monetary policy pursued.

The most important way to solve the problem of overcoming inflation in recent years has been the implementation of monetary policy, aimed primarily at limiting aggregate demand by measures designed to limit the possibility of providing loans to commercial banks and thereby have an impact on reducing the volume of effective demand. An active monetary policy has made it possible to achieve certain results in a smooth decline in inflation, however, the price of these successes is very high.

This is, first of all, a huge decline in production, one of the reasons for which is a decrease in effective demand. The ongoing monetary policy had an impact only on the sphere of circulation and did not provide for a direct positive impact on the sphere of production.

In this regard, it is necessary to turn to the use of credit as an important lever for the growth of production and supply of goods, which will help reduce inflation.

Insufficient lending activity of Russian banks makes monetary policy instruments ineffective. In this regard, the Bank of Russia needs to start using them, first of all, not to smoothly reduce inflation, but to increase the investment activity of commercial banks. But before that, the Bank of Russia should theoretically study the influence of each instrument on the regulation of the economic situation, and only then begin to use them in practice.

Annex A

(mandatory)

Structural divisions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

Currently, the following structural divisions operate in the Central Bank of the Russian Federation:

Consolidated economic department. Department of Research and Information. Department of Cash Circulation

Department for Regulation, Management and Monitoring of the Payment System of the Bank of Russia

Settlement Regulation Department. Accounting and Reporting Department

Department of Licensing Activities and Financial Recovery of Credit Institutions. Department of Banking Supervision. Department of banking regulation. Financial Stability Department. Main inspection of credit organizations. Financial Market Operations Department

Department for ensuring and controlling operations in financial markets. Department of financial monitoring and currency control. Department of balance of payments

Department of Methodology and Organization of Service of Accounts of Budgets of the Budgetary System of the Russian Federation. Legal department. Department of Field Institutions. Department of Information Systems

Department of personnel policy and ensuring work with personnel. Financial Department. Internal Audit Department

Department of International Financial and Economic Relations. Department of External and Public Relations. Administrative department. Central Real Estate Department of the Bank of Russia

Central Department of Expertise and Planning of Capital Expenditures of the Bank of Russia. Main Directorate of Security and Information Protection

List of sources used

1 The Constitution of the Russian Federation was adopted by popular vote on December 12, 1993 (subject to amendments made by the Laws of the Russian Federation on amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation of December 30, 2008 N 6-FKZ and of December 30, 2008 N 7-FKZ) // "Collection of legislation of the Russian Federation ", 26.01.2009, N 4, art. 75

2 Russian Federation. The laws. Federal Law On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation: [Federal Law: adopted by the State Duma on July 10, 2002] // Collected Legislation of the Russian Federation. -2001. N 86-FZ

3 Russian Federation. The laws. On banks and banking activity N 395-1 - FZ of 02.12.1990: feder. Law: [Adopted by State. Duma February 7, 1990: approved. Federation Council 21 1990]. - [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http: //www. consultant.ru

4 Russian Federation. The laws. Federal Law No. 39-FZ of April 22, 1996 "On the Securities Market" (as amended on December 6, 2007, as amended and supplemented on January 1, 2008) //

Introduction ................................................ ................................................. ........... 5

Chapter 1. Theoretical Foundations of Monetary Policy .............................. 10

1.1 Ideas about monetary regulation of the economy

various economic schools .............................................................. ... ten

1.1.1 Neoclassical school............................................................... ............................ ten

1.1.2 The Keynesian model of monetary regulation.................................. 12

1.1.3 Monetarist Quantity Theory of Money .............................................. 17

1.2 The mechanism and instruments of influence of the Central Bank

on the supply of money in the economy .............................................................. ............... 21

1.2.1 Mechanism of credit emission ............................................... ................... 21

1.2.2 Forms and tools for regulating the money supply.................................. 24

1.3. Monetary Policy Goals and Effectiveness....................................................... 28

1.3.1 The system of monetary policy objectives....................................................... 28

1.3.2 Intermediate goals in different concepts

monetary regulation .................................................................. ...... 29

1.3.3 Monetary Controversy.................................................... 32

1.3.4 Monetary policy transmission mechanism and its role... 36

Chapter 2. Monetary policy in the transitional economy of Russia....... 39

2.1 Factors Affecting Monetary Policy .............................................. 39

2.2 Peculiarities of the Russian banking system............................................... 40

2.3 Specifics of monetary policy objectives....................................................... 43

2.4 Monetary Policy Controversy in the 1990s............................. 46

2.5 Methods and tools............................................................... .............................. 52

2.6 Peculiarities of the post-crisis monetary policy.................................................. 56

Chapter 3. Unified state monetary policy in the 21st century ...... 60

3.1 Objectives and results of monetary policy in 2001 ............... 60

3.2 Monetary Policy Objectives for 2002 .............................................................. 64

Conclusion................................................. ................................................. ..... 74

Bibliographic list .................................................................. ............................... 79

Appendix 1................................................ ................................................. .. 81

INTRODUCTION

In the modern market economy, there are many socio-economic problems that are beyond the control of the market and require government intervention. Strictly speaking, the concepts of "market economy" or "market system" are abstract, they represent a simplified picture of reality, in which many of its aspects are absent. Neither now, nor ever before, there is not and has not been a single country whose economy would function only with the help of the market mechanism. Along with the market mechanism, the mechanism of state regulation of the economy has always been used and is being used now to an even greater extent.

The market is not an economic system as a whole, but only one of the mechanisms for coordinating the commands of economic entities. This mechanism has never, even in the time of A. Smith, been the only one. At all times it was used together with the mechanism of state regulation. Only the proportion of their use has changed and is changing. At the same time, both mechanisms are based on the traditions and customs of a given society. And if we use the now accepted terminology, then there are no other economic systems, except for mixed ones.

In developed countries with a mixed economy, the role of the state in the functioning of the economy is far from the same. It differs in scale, forms and methods of state influence on the economy, in society's willingness to accept and support such state intervention in economic life. These differences are due to many factors of an objective material order, as well as the influence of traditions and ideas characteristic of a given society, which is now determined by such a concept as mentality.

Regardless of the specifics of the economic, cultural, national-historical development of different countries in which a mixed economy is more or less successfully functioning, regardless of the economic theories that are preferred in these countries, the economic role of the state in them can be represented by the following most important economic functions:

· development of economic legislation, provision of a legal framework and social climate conducive to the efficient functioning of a market economy;

Supporting competition and ensuring the safety of the market mechanism;

· redistribution of income and wealth, aimed primarily at providing social guarantees and protecting various social groups in need of it;

· regulation of the distribution of resources to change the structure of the national product;

· stabilization of the economy in the face of fluctuating economic conditions, as well as stimulating economic growth;

entrepreneurial activity.

All these functions, on the one hand, are aimed at maintaining and facilitating the functioning of the market economy, and on the other hand, at adjusting and modifying the actions of the market system, including neutralizing its negative aspects.

The presented list of economic functions of the state shows that its economic role is by no means limited to managing the public sector of the economy, i.e., to entrepreneurial activity within a certain group of enterprises, of which it is the owner. The economic role of the state involves its activities to regulate the economy as a whole, all its sectors as a single system. Consequently, denationalization and privatization, as a rule, meaning a quantitative reduction in the public sector of the economy, can be accompanied by both a weakening of the regulatory role of the state, and its strengthening and expansion of the economic functions it performs.

In the process of transition from a total nationalized economy to a mixed economy, not only the functions and directions of state influence on the economy undergo significant changes, but also the methods of such influence. As you know, there are two groups of methods of state regulation: direct (administrative) and indirect (economic). And although in a number of specific cases such a division turns out to be largely arbitrary, and sometimes it is simply difficult to carry out, in general, when analyzing this problem, its use is useful and expedient.

Financial and credit methods of state regulation of the economy, when considered as a whole, form the monetary policy of the state; it is understood as "a set of measures of economic regulation of money circulation and credit aimed at ensuring the sustainability of economic growth by influencing the level and dynamics of inflation, investment activity and other important macroeconomic consequences" . The proposed work is devoted to the consideration of the fundamental aspects of these methods of regulating the economy.

It follows from the above definition that monetary policy is not something self-sufficient, it is closely connected with other regulatory functions of the state (regulation of investment activity, fiscal policy, small business support system, etc.). However, the complex solution of these tasks contains to a large extent also administrative measures of regulation, therefore, a detailed consideration of these sections is not provided in the work.

The relevance of the topic under consideration is determined by the following circumstance. The contradictory, largely unsuccessful experience of reforming the domestic economy more and more often in recent times (especially after the financial crisis of 1998) puts on the agenda the question of the forms and methods of conducting monetary policy. It is characteristic that serious disagreements in the camp of economists are observed not only about the measures proposed for implementation, but even in assessing the current state of affairs. So, along with the opinion that the monetary policy pursued by the state since 1995 was extremely tough, but effective, and the reasons for the fall of the ruble turned out to be purely psychological, the conviction was expressed that it was the course pursued by the Central Bank that ultimately turned out to be a failure. As confirmation, statistics are usually cited that can be called blatant: the crisis of the summer of 1998 was preceded by a huge reduction in net foreign exchange reserves by $ 14.6 billion, and by $ 7.9 billion from May to August 1998. Such a policy of monetary authorities is directly called irresponsible by many authors.

The purpose of this work is a comprehensive study of financial and credit methods of state regulation of the economy. Achieving this goal requires solving the following tasks:

Studying the theoretical heritage left on this issue by representatives of various economic schools;

Familiarization with the current state of affairs in world practice, in particular, with the domestic experience of conducting monetary policy in recent years;

Consideration of the main directions for the implementation of this policy in the near future.

The formulation and consistent solution of these tasks determines the structure of the work. A separate chapter is devoted to each of them.

It should be noted that financial and credit methods of state regulation of the economy are considered both in general systematized courses on economic theory, and in special publications and economic periodicals.

Despite the fact that in some educational publications the problem of state regulation is considered in passing, a number of authors still pay serious attention to it. Against this background, the textbook ed. Kamaeva V.D. (). It combines a detailed theoretical examination of monetary regulation with a deep analysis of domestic practice.

And yet, the most fully considered issues are reflected in specialized publications (Albegova I.M., Yemtsov R.G., Kholopov A.V.,; Kushlin V.I., Volgin N.A.,). Of particular note here is the collective author's work "State regulation of the market economy" (). The book is devoted to the most important aspects and tools of macroeconomic regulation of market and transition economies, in particular - the evolution and new trends in the monetary policy of the state.

Finally, economic periodicals make it possible to operate in the work with the latest statistical data, as well as the critical opinion of leading domestic economists. In particular, when writing the last chapter of the work, a program government document was used to a large extent - "The main directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2002", published in ().

Chapter 1. Theoretical Foundations of Monetary Policy

Monetary policy is currently one of the forms of indirect influence of the state on the economy. It is based on the theoretical ideas of economists about the role of money in the economy and its impact on the main macroeconomic parameters: economic growth, employment, prices, balance of payments. In modern theories, money is increasingly viewed as an active factor in the reproductive process, and the theory of money itself has become an important part of macroanalysis.

The theory of money (monetarist theory) is a branch of economic theory that studies the impact of money and monetary policy on the state of the economy as a whole.

The problem of state regulation of the market economy, including the methods of monetary policy, had no practical significance until the 1930s. XX century, until the economy of the leading countries of Europe and North America was hit by a devastating crisis.

1.1 Ideas about the monetary regulation of the economy by various economic schools

1.1.1 Neoclassical school

Economists of the classical (neoclassical) school of the last third of the 19th - early 20th centuries. they firmly believed in an effective self-regulating and self-developing market economy, denied the need for large-scale state intervention in economic processes, and considered money only as a shell for the nominal expression of real values, such as output, income, investment, etc.

They believed that the real volume of production is determined by the main factors of production available to society: labor resources, production capacities, natural resources, i.e. factors that change only in the long run. In particular, many economists of this school believed that the volume of production and the velocity of money tend to tend to natural levels and do not depend on the impact of money and monetary policy. Changes in the amount of money in the economy can only affect the level of domestic prices. Adhering to the quantity theory of money, a significant contribution to the modernization of which was made by a prominent representative of the mathematical school I. Fischer (1867 - 1947). In economic theory, I. Fisher's mathematical equation of exchange MV = PQ is well known, where M is the amount of money in circulation. V - velocity of circulation of money, P - price level. Q - level of real output. In this equation, MV characterizes the money supply in the economy, PQ - demand for money.

The neoclassicals argued that a proportional change in the nominal amount of money would only cause a proportional change in the absolute price level. Therefore, they concluded that monetary policy was ineffective and urged the government to take care, first of all, of a balanced state budget, avoiding its deficit.

The world economic crisis of 1929-1933. called into question the main provisions of neoclassical theory, which virtually ruled out the possibility of protracted crises and involuntary unemployment in a market economy. He also found that the classical quantity theory of money and prices, operating on long-term time frames, was unable to solve the problems caused by the crisis. To combat the unemployment of the US government. Great Britain and other developed countries began to use measures of state regulation that do not fit into the orthodox neoclassical doctrine.

1.1.2 Keynesian model of monetary regulation

The most famous theoretical justification for large-scale state intervention in the market economy was the whale and J. Keynes "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" (1936). Keynes made a real revolution in macroeconomics, radically changing the views of economists and governments on business cycles and economic policy.

The new economic theory proceeded from the fact that the modern market economy, automatically striving for equilibrium, can fall into a state of equality of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, in which the actual output is much lower than the potential and a significant part of the labor force consists of involuntary unemployed.

Unlike the classics, J. Keynes believed that the economy could “get stuck” for a long time in a situation of low output and chronic unemployment, since, due to the inflexibility of prices and wages, there is no mechanism by which full employment would be quickly restored and full use of production capacities ensured.

J. Keynes saw the reason for the economy to fall into an equilibrium trap in conditions of underemployment in insufficient aggregate demand and believed that the government could influence the state of economic activity using the methods of monetary and fiscal policy to change aggregate demand.

In the Keynesian theory of aggregate demand, investment demand is of decisive importance. Fluctuations in investment due to the multiplier effect will cause large changes in production and employment. Among the most important factors determining the level of investment in the economy, J. Keynes singles out the interest rate, since the latter is the cost of obtaining a loan to finance investment projects. An increase in the interest rate, ceteris paribus, will reduce the level of planned investment, and consequently, output and employment will fall.

The chain of functional dependencies can be expressed as follows: an increase in the money supply causes a fall in the interest rate, which leads to an increase in investment, and hence income and employment. Keynes considered the influence of the interest rate on investment policy as a lever through which the conditions of money circulation affect the economy as a whole. That is why the analysis of the money market, where the interest rate is set as a result of the interaction of money supply and demand, is an important part of Keynesian theory. Revealing the mechanism of changing the interest rate, J. Keynes rejected the classical quantitative theory of demand for money and presented his point of view, according to which money is one of the types of wealth, and the desire of business entities to keep part of the assets in the form of money is determined by the so-called liquidity preference.

Keynes viewed the demand for money as a function of two variables: nominal national income and the interest rate, because he believed that the total demand for money included two elements. The first element is transactional demand, or the demand for money as a medium of circulation, i.e. demand for money for transactions, purchases of goods and services. It takes into account the transaction motive, when money is needed to carry out planned expenses, and the precautionary motive, which makes it necessary to have money in order to be able to meet unexpected needs. Transaction demand depends on the level of national income: the higher the nominal national income, the higher the level of spending, since people enter into a large number of transactions and they need to have more liquid funds.

Fundamentally new in Keynes is the introduction of the second element into the aggregate demand for money - speculative demand associated with the purchase and sale of securities. The presence of a speculative demand for money is due to the fact that people in each case determine for themselves what share of income to spend on consumption and what share on savings, as well as in what form to store savings. Savings represented in securities generate income. However, holding them is associated with risk, since a change in the interest rate will lead to a change in the price of securities. Since the price of securities is inversely proportional to the interest rate, when it rises, the market value of securities decreases. Moreover, it is expected that, having reached the "natural level", the interest rate will begin to fall in the future and securities can be sold at a profit and at a higher price. Naturally, each business entity investing assets will prefer to invest in securities, as a result of which there will be no speculative demand for money. On the contrary, if the interest rate is low, it is expected to rise in the future, which will lead to a decrease in the price of securities and cause losses in the capital of holders of securities. Under these conditions, there is a general desire for liquidity, a refusal to lend to economic growth through investments in securities, and the speculative demand for money grows.

According to the works of J. Keynes, the speculative motive forms an inverse relationship between the amount of demand for money and the lending interest rate.

The functional dependence of the demand for money can be defined as follows: the nominal demand for money depends on the nominal national income and the nominal interest rate.

The money supply in the economy is determined by the policy of the Central Bank and is constant in the short run.

The mechanism of interest rate formation in the money market can be represented graphically (see Fig. 1).

Dependence of the nominal interest rate i on the amount of money in circulation M

where Md is the total demand for money;

Ms - money supply;

E is the equilibrium point of the money market;

i - equilibrium interest rate.

An increase in the level of nominal income shifts the money demand curve to the right, to position Md 2 , which, ceteris paribus, will cause an increase in the nominal interest rate (i 2).

An increase in the money supply will shift the curve Ms 1 to the right, to the position Ms 2 ;, and accordingly lower the equilibrium interest rate to the value (i 3).

Using the methods of monetary policy, the state can influence the interest rate, and through it the level of investment, maintaining full employment and ensuring economic growth.

However, J. Keynes and his followers gave priority to fiscal policy. Several reasons can be given to explain this.

First, the economy enters a special state in which an increase in the money supply does not cause a change in national income. This case is called the "liquidity trap" and analyzed in sufficient detail by the famous English economist J. Hicks.

"Liquidity trap" means that the interest rate is at a fairly low level and it can only be changed upward. Under these conditions, the owners of money will not seek to invest them. There is a situation where even a very low interest rate does not stimulate investment and does not contribute to income growth. The entire increase in money is absorbed by speculative demand, i.e., the money settles on the hands, and is not invested in the economy. Since the interest rate does not change, investment and income remain constant. The market mechanism of independent revival does not work. An impulse is needed from outside the market system. The way out of this situation, the Keynesians believed, is possible only with the involvement of fiscal policy, which will serve as a "locomotive" for private investment.

Secondly, in assessing the velocity of money, Keynes proceeded from the fact that it is changeable and unpredictable, including in short periods of time (for example, within the economic cycle). Therefore, money cannot be regarded as the most important factor determining the dynamics of output, employment and prices.

And finally, thirdly, J. Keynes believed that prices in a market economy are inflexible, so he expresses all economic indicators in constant wages.

After examining the channels through which the government's fiscal and monetary policy affects the state of the economy, and based on theoretical premises, Keynes concluded that in the conditions of the depression, the methods of the monetarist approach to regulating and stimulating the economy collapsed. He considered changes in the tax system and the structure of government spending to be more effective ways to stabilize the economy. This conclusion led the followers of Keynes to proclaim the well-known thesis: "money does not matter." At the same time, the early Keynesians, proceeding from the "liquidity trap", considered monetary policy to be ineffective and emphasized the absolute of fiscal policy.

Later Keynesians also considered monetary policy to be effective. Preference is given to a mixed monetary and fiscal policy: relatively tight fiscal and light monetary, while the latter is given the role of an adaptive policy that accompanies fiscal regulation measures. Monetary policy is needed to keep the interest rate low and encourage investment: an increase in the money supply will counteract an increase in the interest rate and thus prevent the crowding out of private investment, reduce the "push" effect when public spending increases.

1.1.3 Monetarist quantity theory of money

Post-war period up to the end of the 1960s - beginning of the 1970s. marked by the most favorable processes of socio-economic development of the leading Western countries over the previous 100 years. However, at the turn of the 60-70s. miscalculations of the Keynesian concept of economic regulation were revealed.

They consist in underestimating the danger of inflation, exaggerating the role of direct public investment and budgetary methods of conjuncture regulation, overestimating the real effect of deficit financing.

The discrediting and crisis of Keynesianism contributed to the rehabilitation of the role of money in the economy and the resuscitation of temporarily forgotten monetary theories. M. Friedman and his followers, known in the economic world as monetarists, developed the modern quantity theory of money, which became extremely popular in the 70s.

Monetarism is a school of economic thought that emphasizes changes in the amount of money in circulation as a determining function of prices, income, and employment.

The monetarists disagree with the Keynesians not only in questions of the role of money in the economy, but above all in assessing the functioning of the market economy as a whole. They believe that the market economy is quite stable and the market mechanism is capable of restoring economic equilibrium on its own. Therefore, monetarists oppose active state intervention in the economy, defend the principles of free competition in general and in the monetary sphere in particular. Money is considered by monetarists as a decisive factor in the development of production. Excessive state regulation of the monetary sphere can provoke, in their opinion, an economic crisis. They found proof of this not only in the crises of the mid-1970s and early 1980s.

Underestimation of the role of money, and monetary circulation in particular, the inability of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) to prevent a sharp decline in the amount of money in circulation in the late 20s. significantly increased, according to M. Friedman, the negative aspects of the economic downturn. M. Friedman was convinced that money and money circulation have always been of great importance for the development of the economy, and ignoring the monetary theory or misusing its postulates in the course of excessive state regulation can cause enormous harm to the public economy.

The analysis of business cycles and monetary circulation allowed M. Friedman and his associates to significantly modernize the classical quantitative theory of monetary circulation, especially for short-term time intervals. Thus, monetarists, considering the velocity of circulation of money as a variable, believe that the theory they propose makes it possible to predict the behavior of this variable. As the main factors determining the speed of circulation of money, they highlight the expected level of inflation and the interest rate. Monetarists also revealed the relationship between changes in the growth rate of the money supply, real and nominal GNP, and showed that changes in the growth rate of the money supply affect real output faster than prices. For example, within a single business cycle, the growth rate of money supply after some delay, usually several months, causes changes in the growth rate of nominal GNP. First, a significant part of the change in nominal GNP reflects changes in real GNP, i.e. changes in the real quantity of goods and services produced in the economic system. In the future, if the growth rate of the money supply significantly exceeds the average annual rate of economic growth, a significant part of the changes in nominal GNP are changes in the absolute price level. Thus, the acceleration of growth in nominal GNP, caused by an increase in the money supply, only initially takes the form of an increase in real output, accompanied by a decrease in unemployment. Subsequently, the slowdown in the growth rate of real production leads to the fact that price growth absorbs an increasing part of the impact on the economy due to changes in the growth rate of the money supply. When the rate of growth of the money supply slows down, the corresponding changes in nominal and real GNP slow down in reverse order.

New studies by representatives of the monetarist direction gave the keys to understanding the impact of the state's monetary policy on the state of the economy, made it possible to explain such a previously unobserved economic phenomenon as stagflation, or the simultaneous existence of high unemployment and high inflation, which was completely contrary to Keynesian theory, and finally to offer appropriate recommendations for monetary policy of the state.

Based on the fact that good intentions are too often carried out incorrectly, monetarists opposed the implementation of an active monetary policy aimed at stabilizing both the money supply and the interest rate.

They considered the Keynesian concept to be erroneous and internally contradictory. Therefore, the main object of regulation, in their opinion, should not be the interest rate, but the growth rate of the money supply. The central bank must implement a constant predictable monetary policy and follow the simple rule of constant growth in the money supply. The growth rate of the money supply must be sufficient to, on the one hand, ensure the growth of real GNP, and, on the other hand, not cause inflationary processes in the economy.

In the 70s - early 80s. the practical application of monetarist recipes made it possible to develop quite effective measures to combat inflation. At the same time, the stabilization of inflationary processes, changes in financial institutions and the transition to a new quality of economic growth in the 80s. significantly reduced the relevance of the monetary policy recipes developed during the inflationary period of the previous decade. However, largely thanks to the scientific achievements of the monetarists, economists forever said goodbye to the statement "money does not matter."

Modern monetary theory is increasingly acquiring synthetic forms of models, including elements of Keynesianism, monetarism, neoclassical supply-side economics, etc.

On the whole, a direction has been formed in economics, called "neoclassical synthesis", which includes a variety of points of view on a number of issues in the theory and practice of the functioning of a modern mixed economy.

1.2 Mechanism and instruments of influence of the Central Bank on the money supply in the economy

The starting point of monetary policy is the change in the value of the real money supply as a result of the appropriate policy pursued by the Central Bank. The mechanism of the influence of the Central Bank on the volume of money supply in the economy is due to the nature of the functioning of the modern credit and banking system, the ability of commercial banks to increase or decrease the money supply through credit emission.

1.2.1 Credit emission mechanism

The essential difference between a bank and any other financial institution is that, by creating deposits and issuing loans, it increases the amount of money in the economy, i.e., affects the amount of money supply.

The money supply is the sum of generally recognized means of payment in the country's economy. In modern conditions, it consists of cash in circulation and deposits in banks, which economic agents use to pay for transactions.

If the money supply is denoted as M, cash in circulation - C and deposits - D, then

M = C + D. (1)

The modern banking system is a fractional reserve system: only part of the deposits is kept in the form of reserves, and the rest is used for issuing loans and other active operations. By issuing loans, banks thereby allow borrowers to use these funds for transactions, therefore, the amount of means of payment increases by the amount of the loan provided, i.e.

M = C + D + K, (2)

where K - volume of loans issued by banks.

The process of issuing means of payment within the system of commercial banks is called credit emission. . The amount of loans issued in the banking system depends on the amount of deposits and the amount of reserves. If we assume that all means of payment are kept in the bank, then the larger the money supply, the lower the reserve ratio r .

The reserve ratio is the ratio of the amount of reserves R to the amount of deposits D:

r= (R / D) * 100% (3)

The functioning of the system of commercial banks in the conditions of cashless payments leads to the fact that the issuance of a loan by one bank causes a multiplier effect (multiplier effect), when the process lasts until the last monetary unit is used as a loan.

The coefficient showing how many times banks increase the money supply in the economy, provided that all the money is kept in the bank, is called the deposit (bank) multiplier m, and it can be represented as

The increase in the money supply in circulation due to the lending activities of banks can be expressed as

DM \u003d (1 / r) * DD, or DM \u003d m * DD (5)

where DD is the increase in deposits, or an increase in the resources of commercial banks, and m - deposit multiplier.

In real life, however, the population and firms do not keep all the money in banks, but keep some of it in the form of cash. As a result, the ability of banks to increase the money supply in circulation depends not only on the reserve ratio, but also on the behavior of the population, its confidence in the banking system.

In general, the amount of money in circulation changes as a result of the operations of the Central Bank, which sets the required reserve ratio; commercial banks, which determine the amount of loans issued, as well as decisions of the non-banking sector.

The behavior of the population will characterize the ratio of ^/cash to the amount of deposits in commercial banks, i.e.

The coefficient characterizing the degree of impact of commercial banks on the volume of money supply in circulation, taking into account the role of the Central Bank, as well as the possible outflow of money from the deposits of the banking system into cash, is called the money multiplier.

Denoting it as m * , we can write the formula

The general money supply model is built taking into account the operations of the Central Bank, commercial banks, as well as decisions of the non-banking sector.

The mechanism of the influence of the Central Bank on the amount of money supply in the economy will be shown using the equation of the main components of the money supply:

M = m * B, (8)

where in - monetary base.

The monetary base (or money of increased efficiency) is the amount of money put into circulation, plus the reserves of commercial banks, kept on deposits with the Central Bank.

This equation allows us to identify two factors that affect the amount of money supply. The first factor is the change in the monetary base. Through the monetary base, the Central Bank has a direct impact on the money supply in the economy, primarily changing the amount of reserves of commercial banks.

The second factor through which the Central Bank can control the money supply in the economy is a change in the required reserve ratio, which causes a change in the money multiplier.

The mechanism of the influence of the Central Bank on the amount of money supply in the economy, therefore, implies an initial modification of the monetary base due to the operations of the Central Bank and a subsequent change in the money supply in the system of commercial banks due to the multiplier effect.

The Central Bank adjusts the value of the money supply using various instruments of direct and indirect regulation, with the help of which it influences the size of the monetary base and the money multiplier.

1.2.2 Forms and tools for regulating the money supply

Direct regulation of the money supply in the economy involves the establishment of lending limits, interest rates, the volume of loans issued, etc. It is used, as a rule, in conditions of underdevelopment of the banking system and the money market as a whole, during periods of increased inflation or financial crises.

In modern conditions, in countries with developed market economies, three main instruments are mainly used, with the help of which the Central Bank exercises indirect regulation of the monetary sphere: open market operations, the discount rate and the required reserve ratio.

By conducting operations on the open market and changing the discount rate, the Central Bank directly affects the monetary base. A change in the required reserve ratio, as already noted, affects the multiplication process.

Open market operations - the purchase or sale by the Central Bank of government securities, as a rule, in the secondary market, since such activities of the Central Bank in the primary market are inflationary in nature and are limited or prohibited by law in many countries.

By purchasing securities from a private person or a commercial bank, the Central Bank increases the reserves of commercial banks held in their correspondent accounts, and the monetary base grows accordingly. Having received additional resources, commercial banks increase the volume of loans issued, the mechanism of credit emission and the accompanying multiplicative expansion of the money supply is activated:

DM = DВ * m * (9)

If the Central Bank sells securities, then the process proceeds in the opposite direction and there is a decrease in the money supply.

An increase in the resources of commercial banks can also occur if the Central Bank provides loans to commercial banks. The process of lending to commercial banks by the Central Bank is called refinancing. The rate at which the Central Bank issues loans to commercial banks is called the discount rate (if the loan is mainly provided in the form of promissory notes) or the refinancing rate (for other lending methods).

Central Bank loans enter the reserve accounts of commercial banks, increase the total reserves of the banking system, expand the monetary base and form the basis of a multiplicative change in the money supply.

An increase in the discount rate (refinancing rate) means an increase in the cost of resources that banks can receive by borrowing from the Central Bank, which leads to a reduction in their volume, and, consequently, to a decrease in lending operations of commercial banks. At the same time, acquiring more expensive resources, banks raise their interest rates on loans. Credit conditions are deteriorating, credit is becoming less affordable, credit is shrinking, and money is becoming more expensive. The money supply in the economy decreases.

Reducing the discount rate indirectly contributes to the growth of the money supply in circulation.

Required reserves are part of the amount of deposits that commercial banks must keep in special accounts with the Central Bank and cannot use for active operations, and above all lending.

For the first time the practice of required reserves was officially introduced in 1913. in the United States when the Fed was created. Subsequently, the Fed gained the right to revise the required reserve ratio.

After World War II, the principle of variable reserve requirements was introduced by the central banks of many developed countries.

Required reserves represent the minimum amount of reserves that commercial banks must have and serve two functions. First, they must provide the necessary level of liquidity for commercial banks to ensure the uninterrupted fulfillment of payment obligations to return deposits to depositors and make settlements with other banks. Secondly, they are the central bank's tool for regulating the money supply. A change in the required reserve ratio directly affects the value of the credit and financial potential of commercial banks. The higher the required reserve ratio, the lower the amount of resources for issuing loans, the lower the credit emission.

A change in the required reserve ratio affects the money supply in the economy through a change in the money multiplier. An increase in the required reserve ratio reduces the money multiplier and reduces the impact of commercial banks on the amount of money in circulation. Lowering reserve requirements frees up part of the resources of commercial banks for lending operations, enhances the multiplier effect and leads to an increase in the money supply.

In modern conditions in different countries, the main instruments of monetary policy are used with varying degrees of activity. For example, in developed countries there is a tendency to move away from the active use of the reserve requirements of the Central Bank as a regulatory tool. Practice has shown that this tool must be used very carefully due to its rigidity.

The reserve requirement cannot change frequently, as this upsets the competitive balance between banks and other financial intermediaries. A change in the required reserve ratio may cause sharp changes in the volume of "performing" assets of banks and affect their financial condition.

With an increase in reserve requirements, commercial banks are forced to hold a large proportion of their assets in a non-interest-bearing form, and thereby incur losses due to a drop in their profitability. In this regard, central banks, interested in the stability of the banking system, resort to changing the required reserve ratio very rarely or try not to change it at all.

The use of the discount rate (refinancing rate) as an instrument of monetary policy also has its own characteristics. The fact is that the volume of loans received by commercial banks from central banks usually makes up a small fraction of the funds they raise. Therefore, a change in the discount rate is primarily an indicator of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. In conditions of stable economic development, as a rule, there is no sharp change in the exchange rate, and, consequently, frequent changes in the discount rate. Sometimes even, as, for example, in the USA, the discount rate changes following the movement of interest rates in the capital market, so that the difference between the discount rate and the market rate is not too large. Thus, in developed countries, the main active tool for the operational regulation of the money supply in the economy is open market operations.

In general, the methods and instruments of monetary policy in a particular country are determined by established traditions or laws and depend on the degree of development of the credit and banking system, as well as financial markets.

1.3. Goals and effectiveness of monetary policy

1.3.1 System of monetary policy objectives

Monetary policy is one of the main means of state influence on economic processes. As a system of coordinated measures in the field of money circulation and credit, this policy is aimed at regulating the main macroeconomic indicators. The ultimate goals of monetary policy are: ensuring price stability, full employment, growth in real output, and a stable balance of payments. Achieving these goals is a global challenge. The current monetary policy is oriented towards more specific goals that reflect its specifics. In this regard, intermediate goals are distinguished that regulate the value of key variables in the monetary system over sufficiently long time intervals (a year or more). These include: money supply, interest rate, exchange rate. And finally, the daily consistent actions of the Central Bank are aimed at achieving the so-called tactical goals. The latter determine the nature of monetary policy. A tight monetary policy aims to maintain the money supply at a certain level. The goal of fixing the interest rate is typical for a flexible monetary policy.

Implementing a policy aimed at ensuring economic stability in the state, governments and central banks develop the main directions of monetary policy for a certain period, formulate intermediate goals, the achievement of which ensures the fulfillment of a task of a higher order, adjust and specify the implementation of tactical goals.

1.3.2 Intermediate targets in different monetary frameworks

In the Keynesian concept, the main goals are the fight against either unemployment or inflation. Unemployment is a consequence of a decline in production due to insufficient aggregate demand, the most important component of which is investment demand. Therefore, along with measures of fiscal regulation, monetary policy involves stimulating investment by maintaining a relatively low interest rate. Under these conditions, the Central Bank puts forward an increase in the money supply in the economy as an intermediate goal. To implement it, the Central Bank, using the main tools, reduces the required reserves and the discount rate, actively, on preferential terms, buys government securities from commercial banks and individuals. Commercial banks, having received additional resources, offer them on the market as loans.

An increase in the supply of loan capital, ceteris paribus, will cause a drop in its price and make borrowed funds more accessible and attractive to producers. Thus, lowering the interest rate creates favorable conditions for investment, and the expansion of production will lead to a reduction in unemployment. This monetary policy was called the cheap money policy.

The fight against inflation requires a policy of expensive money, which is based on the contraction of the money supply. To do this, the Central Bank raises reserve requirements and the discount rate, and sells government securities in the course of operations on the open market. A decrease in the money supply causes an increase in the interest rate and, accordingly, an increase in the cost of financial resources. In general, the expensive money policy is aimed at limiting lending to new projects, reducing investment activity and production growth rates.

The Keynesians considered inflation only under conditions of full employment and full output and associated it with aggregate demand that was excessive compared to the potential of the economy. In a strong economic environment, an excess of aggregate demand drives up prices. Consequently, other things being equal, monetary policy measures should reduce business activity, reduce production activity, which will contribute to a fall in inflation growth rates.

In general, economic instability, manifested in one form or another, appears to be the result of an imbalance in the growth rates of the natural level of real production and the growth of aggregate demand. Pursuing a monetary policy aimed at achieving the main goal - economic growth at stable prices and full employment, requires the choice of such a specific intermediate goal that best adjusts the correspondence of aggregate demand to the growth rate of real GNP.

Monetary policy fit into the concept of "fine tuning" of the economic system, which implied the active actions of the Central Bank in a changing economic situation. Against the free monetary policy, designed to provide "fine tuning" of the economy, were monetarists. M. Friedman, for example, believed that money is too important to be allowed to be manipulated by central banks at their own discretion.

Classical monetarism assumes that the only suitable intermediate goal of monetary policy can be to achieve a stable rate of growth of the money supply. These rates should correspond to the growth rate of the natural level of real GNP. Maintaining the planned growth rate of the money supply is called targeting.

Monetary policy in the classical sense took place in the United States only between October 1979 and October 1982. On October 6, 1979, the Federal Open Market Committee announced changes in monetary policy due to the possibility of rising inflation and uncertainty about the effectiveness of setting target levels. interest rates. The use of the interbank interest rate as a tactical target was discontinued, and the growth rate of the narrow monetary aggregate M1 (includes cash in circulation and demand deposits in commercial banks) became a new intermediate target.

The new approach to monetary policy is based on the monetarist assumption that inflation is always and everywhere the result of an increase in the growth rate of the money supply relative to the growth rate of real production. However, the attempt to implement a monetary targeting policy by indirect methods had unfavorable results, and in the USA it was abandoned in October 1982 after three years of use. Practice has shown that the influence of the monetary authorities on the money supply is carried out mainly through the demand for money, and for this there are more effective tools, such as interest rates, although in all cases an element of uncertainty remains.

While refusing to follow the simple rule of money supply growth, regulators are nevertheless still influenced by monetarism in conducting monetary policy in the sense of its persistent anti-inflationary direction.

The question of effective intermediate goals of monetary policy is still debatable. Governments and central banks of various countries, based on the fact that none of all possible intermediate goals of monetary policy can be considered as ideal, take control of a number of parameters of the economic system. These are indicators of the money supply, the conditions and volumes of loans provided, the exchange rate, the dynamics of price indices, etc.

1.3.3 Monetary inconsistency

The experience of conducting monetary policy in various countries for several decades makes it possible to identify its strengths and weaknesses, to determine the factors influencing its effectiveness. On the one hand, the monetary policy agreed with the government within the framework of the general directions of economic regulation and pursued by the Central Bank is notable for its flexibility.

In all countries with a developed market structure, central banks have a certain independence from the government and can quickly make decisions on adjusting monetary policy depending on the changing economic situation.

The carrying out by central banks of current measures in the monetary sphere is not associated with lengthy procedures for the approval and adoption of special orders by public authorities. The autonomy of central banks in conducting monetary policy also makes it possible to successfully withstand pressure from politicians when the government's short-term political goals conflict with the main strategic line of macroeconomic regulation. This is often observed in the context of upcoming elections, a growing state budget deficit, etc. All this makes monetary policy an extremely attractive tool for state regulation of the economy.

On the other hand, there are serious restrictions in the conduct of monetary policy, which are fraught with the danger of a deterioration in the economic situation.

Firstly, this is due to the general features of the use of indirect methods of regulation, when the same activities carried out by state bodies, providing a positive effect in some markets, can cause negative consequences in other markets. For example, a dear money policy lowers the rate of inflation, bringing about stabilization in the financial markets. At the same time, it can reduce credit, worsen investment conditions, cause economic growth to fall, and increase unemployment. In this regard, when conducting monetary policy, it is important to be able to foresee possible negative consequences and take measures to neutralize them.

However, there are difficulties here. Even assuming that economists are able to make an accurate forecast of the development of the economic situation, there are so-called time lags, or time delays, between changes in the money supply in circulation and the response of other economic variables to them.

During these periods, a number of attendant circumstances can disrupt the course of economic processes. There will be a need to adjust monetary policy, which, in turn, may lead to a contradiction between its long-term and short-term goals. This phenomenon is known as the timing mismatch problem. The presence of such inconsistencies, according to the founders of the neoclassical theory of rational expectations, can nullify all the efforts of the monetary authorities aimed at ensuring economic stability.

The theory of rational expectations states that economic agents, based on past experience and using available information, are able to independently predict economic processes and make optimal decisions. The actions taken by business entities may not fit into the logic of the ongoing monetary policy, and then it will not achieve its goals. The practical application of this theory is that monetary policy should not be in the nature of an opportunistic counter-cyclical policy, since this causes instability and unpredictability in decision-making by economic agents. Supporters of the concept of rational expectations advocate the creation of stable rules in accordance with which the government and economic agents would act.

Secondly, the correct choice of intermediate and tactical goals also has a great influence on the effectiveness of monetary policy. In this case, we are talking about the so-called technical side of the matter. It is known that the money supply can be represented by various monetary aggregates built on the principle of decreasing liquidity. Choosing as an intermediate goal, for example, the growth rate of the monetary base. The central bank must also choose the monetary aggregate that it will control, narrower or wider, and define tactical goals accordingly. If the choice is made incorrectly, without taking into account all the ongoing processes in the monetary sphere, the efforts made will not only not bring the desired end result, but may also undermine the authority of the economic theories on the basis of which the monetary policy was formed. For example, M. Friedman, the intellectual father of modern monetarism, associated the failure of monetary targeting conducted by the FRS Open Market Committee in 1979-1982 with the fact that the tactical goal was incorrectly chosen - non-borrowed reserves instead of the monetary base, which , in his opinion, would be preferable. Unexpectedly for the monetary authorities, the narrow monetary aggregate M1 also behaved, the growth rate of which was chosen as an intermediate target. The result of the monetarist experiment is a significant increase in the volatility of the behavior of M1, as well as a sudden breakdown of the previously stable relationship between the growth of M1 and nominal GNP and between the growth of M1 and inflation, although their stable relationship to a certain extent forms the basis of the classical monetarist approach.

Thirdly, when conducting monetary policy and choosing its goals, it is necessary to take into account the side effects caused by the very mechanism of changes in the volume of money supply in the economy. The central bank cannot fully control the money supply, since commercial banks and the non-banking sector are also involved in this process. For example, banks' reserves consist not only of the mandatory ones prescribed by the Central Bank, but also of excess reserves, the amount of which banks determine on their own. The more excess reserves there are, the less credit will be issued. Thus, the Central Bank cannot accurately predict the volume of loans that commercial banks will issue, and an increase in excess reserves will increase the reserve ratio and reduce the money multiplier.

The ratio between cash and non-cash money depends on the behavior of the population, which is determined not only by the actions of the Central Bank. A change in the ratio between cash and non-cash money d will also affect the value of the money multiplier that determines the scale of credit emission, and hence the money supply. The activities of the Central Bank may not achieve the goal due to the unpredictable behavior of commercial banks or the public.

For example, the Central Bank decides to increase the money supply and to do this, expands the monetary base by conducting operations on the open market to purchase securities. An increase in the money supply will cause the interest rate to fall. And then everything will depend on the behavior of commercial banks and the population in the changed conditions. If banks choose to increase their excess reserves instead of lending, and the public shifts some of their funds from deposits to cash, the money multiplier will decrease, neutralizing the money supply expansion that has gained momentum and reducing the effectiveness of the actions taken by the Central Bank.

A similar situation was observed during the Great Depression in America, up to the 40s, when excess reserves in commercial banks began to grow rapidly. This experience has shown that an increase in bank resources will not necessarily produce a multiplier expansion of bank loans and deposits. Some economists believe that if banks had not accumulated excess reserves, then the revival of the economy in the second half of the 30s. would be more energetic.

As a result, the effectiveness of monetary policy as a whole depends on the quality work of all links of the so-called transmission mechanism.

1.3.4 The monetary policy transmission mechanism and its role

Transmission mechanism - the process by which monetary policy affects the level of planned costs of all subjects of a market economy. The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is quite complex.

In the Keynesian model, as noted earlier, four main stages can be distinguished: a change in the value of the real money supply in the economy as a result of the Central Bank's policy, a change in the interest rate in the money market, the reaction of total spending, primarily investment, a change in output.

More recent studies have identified additional features of the monetary policy mechanism that significantly affect the final result. Practice has shown that a change in the interest rate has an impact not only on the planned investments of firms, but also on household spending, which the national accounting classifies as consumer, for example, buying durable goods on credit. Changes also occur in the securities market, the exchange rate of which, other things being equal, depends on the level of the interest rate. Because there are alternative ways to finance new investment projects, equity prices are included in the monetary policy transmission mechanism along with the interest rate.

Thus, in modern conditions, the monetary policy transmission mechanism takes into account the impact of changes in the money supply not only on investments, but also on all components of planned costs, including consumption and government purchases, and the impact is carried out not only through the interest rate, but also through share prices. and bonds and the change in the level of wealth of society as a whole.

Within the existing transmission mechanism, when determining the directions of monetary policy, it is necessary to take into account at least two other circumstances that have a significant impact on the final results.

First, it is the sensitivity of aggregate demand to changes in the interest rate. A weak reaction to the dynamics of the interest rate or its absence on the part of the main components of aggregate demand, and above all investment spending, breaks the link between fluctuations in the money supply and the volume of output. The impact on the main macroeconomic variables through the interest rate is ineffective.

Second, a change in the interest rate due to a change in the money supply depends on the degree of elasticity of the demand for money with respect to the interest rate. With relatively inelastic demand, the reaction of the money market to the dynamics of the money supply will be stronger. For example, an increase in the money supply will lead to a more significant drop in the interest rate than if the demand for money is sufficiently sensitive (more elastic) to changes in this rate.

In general, the effectiveness of monetary policy, ceteris paribus, depends on how accurate the knowledge of economists about short- and long-term economic processes, about the sum of factors affecting the demand and supply of money, about the complexity of the relationship between changes in the money supply and the main macroeconomic parameters. , such as nominal GNP, price level, production volume, employment level, exchange rate, etc. The use of well-known monetary methods and instruments is even more complicated in countries with economies in transition, where the laws of the market economy are not fully manifested and there are a number of specific circumstances modifying the mechanism of monetary regulation.

Chapter 2. Monetary Policy in Russia's Transition Economy

2.1 Factors affecting monetary policy

The formation of monetary policy in the transitional economy of Russia is due to the interaction of two groups of factors: firstly, the specifics of a special stage of development, namely the transition from a centrally planned economic system to a modern mixed market-type economy, and, secondly, specific social the economic and political conditions under which this transition takes place.

The features of the economic policy of the state in the transition period are related to the fact that a stable economic system has not yet been formed, which has the property of self-regulation and self-development. In a modern mixed economy, state regulation, along with market regulation, forms a single mechanism and, complementing each other, ensures the functioning of an integral system. A transitional economy is an economic system that is not reproducing on its basis. Old relations are gradually changing, and the new institutions, norms and rules that are being created cannot quickly replace the old ones. The existence of opposing regulatory mechanisms leads to a clash of economic interests, exacerbation of socio-economic and political relations. The struggle between the new and the old causes the volatility and instability of the economy in the transition period. Ensuring balance is impossible without the active support of the state. At the same time, for its stabilization, the transitional economy requires a special scheme of relations between the state and economic agents. The behavior of economic agents in the transition period is built in the conditions of an unknown economic situation that is difficult to predict. Long-term guidelines for economic activity have not been formed, and stable economic relationships have not developed. In a transitional economy, the state cannot directly use the mechanisms and instruments of macroeconomic regulation, which have had a positive effect in the current system of a mixed economy. This fully applies to monetary policy, which will be unsuccessful if there is no adequate response of economic agents to the impulses created by monetary instruments. Such a reaction is associated with the formation of market mechanisms and relevant market institutions. Therefore, during their formation, monetary policy becomes more complicated, the regulation of the money supply, interest rates that affect the level of investment, cash flows in the economy cannot be limited only to the methods used in already established economic systems.

The influence of the second group of factors on monetary policy is associated with the initial socio-economic and political conditions in which the transition to a new economic system is carried out. Transitional processes in the Russian economy are accompanied by a decline in production, unemployment, and the rupture of economic ties. Economic destabilization is manifested in the imbalance of aggregate supply and demand, inflation, and a significant state budget deficit.

Thus, measures to create a new, more efficient economic mechanism were forced to be linked with stabilization measures. The result of the economic policy pursued was to be the restoration of macroeconomic balance in the short term, the improvement of the investment climate, and the creation of conditions for economic growth.

2.2 Features of the Russian banking system

The creation and development of a modern banking system is extremely important for the effective implementation of monetary policy. The banking sector is the channel through which monetary impulses are transmitted.

The formation of the Russian banking system as the most important institution of the market economy had its own peculiarities, which influenced the mechanism, goals and results of the ongoing monetary policy.

An analysis of the functioning of the banking sector allows us to conclude that commercial banks in Russia from the first days of their existence were not focused on servicing real commodity production, but were created as tools for quick enrichment and capital accumulation by obtaining super profits from speculative operations in financial markets. Unprecedented quantitative growth of commercial banks in the early 90s. was not so much caused by the needs of the development of the economy and the emerging private sector, but rather due to the ongoing in 1991-1992. politics, including monetary policy.

Uncontrolled emission of money, carried out simultaneously by twelve central banks of the ruble zone, provoked the most severe suppressed inflation. The liberalization that followed in 1992, the transfer of suppressed inflation into the open, caused a colossal jump in prices and changes in the main price proportions. The need to maintain the increased payment turnover determined the further increase in the money supply. At the same time, the issue of money, carried out in the form of cash and direct lending by the Central Bank of Russia to privileged commercial banks, in the absence of proper control over the movement of cash flows, only partially alleviated the growing shortage of money supply to service economic turnover. The ill-conceived policy of money circulation in the context of the liberalization of foreign economic activity and foreign exchange relations, high interest rates led to a change in the proportion in the money circulation system. Money began to be washed out of the production sector and flowed into the sphere of financial speculation. The Central Bank of Russia, issuing money following the growth in demand for them due to rapidly increasing inflation, could not prevent the concentration of new money in the super-profitable financial sector. As a result, despite the huge scale of the issue of money, real production continued to experience a shortage of funds, and banks made huge profits due to the inflationary redistribution of capital.

In 1992, the issue of money increased 17 times, the funds in the accounts of enterprises, citizens and local budgets - 13 times, the net profit in industry - 11 times, and the net profit in the financial and credit sector - 34 times.

Receiving cheap resources, such as budgetary funds, loans from the Central Bank of Russia, and then international loans, Russian commercial banks directed them at best to finance foreign economic activity, trade, enterprises focused on the export of raw materials. Some of the banks created by the heads of large industry structures and giant enterprises often provided loans to deliberately inefficient projects and supported unprofitable production in the interests of their leading shareholders, risking the capital of their clients. Most banks from the very beginning focused on the possibility of obtaining ultra-high income from risky transactions in the interbank and foreign exchange markets. At the same time, funds from current accounts of clients were often used, which threatened the existence of the entire payment system and slowed down the commodity-money turnover.

Thus, the credit and banking system being created in Russia was not initially aimed at performing the functions inherent in modern banking systems: creating reliable channels of money circulation, servicing economic turnover, transforming savings into loan capital and redistributing it between sectors of the national economy, stimulating savings.

The incompleteness of the formation of the legal framework, the contradictory and inconsistent policy of the Central Bank of Russia, the low level of regulation of the activities of credit institutions led to the extreme instability of the Russian banking system, the crisis in which began to grow already in 1994. The crisis processes that accompanied the development of the Russian banking system were a reflection of the deep disintegration of the economy that had begun , and above all its disintegration into autonomously functioning spheres: speculative-financial and industrial. In fact, the Russian credit and banking system worked as an antipode to the normal banking system, creating for itself new, highly profitable and reliable financial instruments, increasingly closing the movement of cash flows within itself, draining the real sector.

The impact of the state on the economy by the methods of monetary policy implies a close relationship between the monetary sphere and the sphere that produces goods and services. And the conductor here is the credit and banking system as the basis of the infrastructure of a market economy.

The deformed Russian banking system, cut off from the manufacturing sector, not only did not provide channels for monetary regulation of the economy, but also collapsed as a result of the macroeconomic policy pursued, the priorities of which were largely due to the need to ensure excess profits in the financial sector.

The creation of a stable modern banking system in a transitional economy is an indispensable condition for an effective monetary policy.

2.3 Specifics of monetary policy goals

An equally important and complex problem for most countries in transition to a new economic system is the definition of monetary policy objectives and the correct choice of monetary regulation instruments.

For almost all such countries, monetary policy has an anti-inflationary focus, which is due to the economic situation. Anti-inflationary policy, as a rule, forms the basis of a stabilization program in the early stages of market reforms. Stabilization is achieved in two ways.

First, there are various inflation mechanisms and, accordingly, they use various methods and instruments of monetary regulation. The transitional economy is not yet capable of developing according to the laws of a developed economy. Therefore, the mechanisms and causes of processes that externally manifest themselves in the same way in all countries can be deeply specific in transforming economies. For example, to characterize inflation in Russia, one can hardly limit oneself to the concepts of demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation. Obviously, the causes of Russian inflation should also be sought in the structural imperfection of the economy and disintegration processes. The formation of monetary policy should be based on a deep understanding of the mechanism of developing inflation and the careful use of available levers. Numerous discussions in the early 1990s about the specifics of inflation in our country, they practically did not form a clear idea of ​​the actual processes taking place.

Secondly, by putting the fight against high inflation as a paramount goal, governments and central banks see it as the most important prerequisite for a speedy exit from the economic crisis. However, in a transitional economy, financial stabilization in itself, expressed in a slowdown in the rate of price growth, will not ensure the automatic start of economic growth. It must be supported by real reforms of the tax and monetary systems, the creation of market economy institutions, and the establishment of mechanisms for the operation of a modern mixed economy. If the state deals only with issues of financial stabilization in the narrow sense, the apparent successes may turn out to be imaginary and the goals will not be achieved.

Russia found itself in a similar situation in 1998. Based on the experience of many countries, which testified that with inflation over 40% per year, investment in the economy is impossible, government circles, in fact, put forward the thesis that inflation suppression is self-sufficient for the transition to economic growth and presented it as the main goal of macroeconomic policy. 1997, which was economically the most successful during the years of reforms. The decline in production stopped, real GDP increased by 0.2%, real incomes of the population grew by more than 2%, consumer prices rose by only 11%. This year, it would seem, confirmed the correctness of the chosen policy and fundamentally changed the situation: the period of a long economic recession ended. At the same time, against the backdrop of such bright prospects, non-payments in the economy continued to grow. In 1997, the growth of all types of debts of enterprises amounted to 40%. The share of long-term loans from commercial banks did not exceed 3.3% of all loans issued. The number of unprofitable enterprises by the beginning of November was 47.5%, the share of barter transactions reached 70-80% of sales volumes, in the regions 60% of the turnover was internal turnover. Banks continued to actively lend to the government. Profitability in the financial market by world standards was huge - 13.2% per annum in 1997 in dollar terms. The ruin of public finances continued through operations with government securities, which were a unique financial instrument, because at the same time they were the most profitable, liquid and reliable.

Thus, in a transitional economy burdened by numerous economic, social and political problems, stabilization policy cannot be simple, straightforward and unambiguous, especially since the government is not always able to control the processes that have begun.

2.4 Controversy in monetary policy in the 1990s

The success of monetary policy also depends on the chosen principles of monetary regulation. As already noted, in modern conditions there is no one dominant doctrine. Theoretical models take on synthetic forms, which makes monetary policy more flexible.

An essential feature of the monetary regulation of the Central Bank of Russia was the orientation towards the principles of monetary policy, which is based on the method of monetary targeting. Monetary policy was built on the basis of simple calculations of the regression relationship between the volume of money supply and inflation rates. The money supply targeting system as a form of monetary policy of the central banks of developed countries took shape only in the 1970s. and was used in established market economies, where the profitability of the real sector is not lower than the profitability of the financial sector.

The profitability of the financial sector was limited with the help of strict state regulation of interest on loans and deposits, control over foreign exchange transactions, restriction or prohibition of credit transactions in the stock market. Refinancing was carried out mainly through the accounting and rediscounting of promissory notes. The prevailing economic proportions made it possible to reveal the existence of a relationship between the growth rates of the money supply, real and nominal GNP, to determine the money demand function and, under these conditions, to formulate monetary policy based on the "simple rule of money supply growth." However, as practice has shown, it was not effective enough, and it was abandoned already in the early 80s. Central banks were unable to keep the growth of the money supply within the specified parameters even with a sufficiently developed toolkit.

Even greater problems in the use of the monetary targeting system arise in countries with economies in transition. The following can be singled out as objective factors: firstly, the demand for money is unpredictable (and this underlies the entire concept of monetary targeting); secondly, the money demand function is unknown; thirdly, the use of monetary planning for short-term financial stabilization purposes, while in monetary theory it is a guideline for medium and long-term policy, and, finally, the difficulty of controlling the money supply due to the undermining of confidence in the national currency and the so-called dollarization of the economy.

In the middle of 1992, the Central Bank of Russia, together with the government, announced the suppression of inflation as the main goal of monetary policy and began to pursue a strict policy of contraction of the money supply. However, by the middle of 1995 it became obvious, including for the Central Bank itself, that it was ineffective. Despite the fact that it was possible to ensure a consistent slowdown in the intensity of inflationary processes (for example, in 1992, the average monthly inflation rate was 31%, in 1993 - 21%, in 1994 - 10%), in 1995 the decline in inflation lagged behind designated landmarks.

The Central Bank of Russia was forced to recognize the limited ability to suppress inflation through monetary policy. The contraction of the total money supply proceeded mainly in the manufacturing sector and affected the structure of aggregate demand rather than its magnitude. The reduction in household demand for domestically produced end products was offset by its rapid increase both in the speculative sphere and in the related sphere of import operations. The continued flow of money from the production to the speculative sphere caused an acceleration in the circulation of money (in 1995, the average annual velocity of money circulation was 10.4 turnovers, while in developed countries it did not exceed 2 turnovers) and, accordingly, depreciated the anti-inflationary effect of the contraction of the money supply. At the same time, cost-push inflation in the manufacturing sector was growing both as a result of faster growth in prices for products of natural monopolies, and as a result of the unstoppable desire of enterprises to transfer the costs of the liquidity crisis, the rise in the cost of working capital, and the use of forced commercial credit to the buyer. Demand restrictions caused by the contraction of the money supply, first of all, reduced the growth rate of consumer goods producers' prices. In industries producing intermediate products and products for the investment sector, the effect of demand restrictions was largely offset by non-payments.

The suppression of inflation by compressing the money supply and moving it into the speculative sphere because of its excess profitability led to the lack of money in the real sector of the economy, which resulted in a crisis of non-payments and a budget crisis.

Thus, the policy of compressing the money supply, carried out in the conditions of the disintegration of the economy, did not lead to the achievement of the main goal - the suppression of inflation. Constraints on aggregate demand against the backdrop of a decline in the real sector of the economy continued to reproduce the already established macroeconomic proportions, but each time at a lower level than in the previous period.

However, in 1995-1996. The Central Bank of Russia continues to implement a moderately tight monetary policy, stabilizing on a monetary basis. At the same time, various parameters characterizing the state of the monetary sphere can be used as targets: the general level of the money supply or its percentage change, setting limits for the growth of the money supply, the total volume of lending or the level of interest rates. However, the choice of targets, as shown earlier, presents problems for developed countries as well, determining to a large extent the effectiveness of monetary policy. For countries with economies in transition, it is complicated by the lack of formation of the transfer mechanism of monetary regulation, the underdevelopment of financial market instruments, the backward structure of the money supply, the largest share of which is cash in circulation. Preservation of a high share of cash in circulation with a low propensity of economic entities to accumulate savings in banks makes it difficult to establish effective control over cash flows.

As an intermediate goal of monetary policy, the Central Bank of Russia chose a fairly wide aggregate M2, which includes cash in circulation outside the banking system, as well as non-cash funds (demand deposits, term deposits and savings).

To control the growth of the money supply, limits were set in 1995 on the net domestic assets of the monetary authorities, limits on the net claims of the monetary system on the government, and targets were set for the volume of net international reserves. Since 1996, the operational procedure of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia has been based on the control of targets for the monetary base in a broad definition (cash in circulation, in the cash departments of commercial banks, funds in the fund of required reserves and balances on correspondent accounts of banks). Considering the value of the money multiplier and the share of cash in circulation to be stable. The Central Bank actually reduced the procedure to the regulation of bank liquidity. Actions regarding interest rates were limited to maintaining their stability.

In 1996, for the first time since the beginning of the economic reforms, inflation decreased with the growth of the real money supply: with an increase in consumer prices by 21.8% per year, the M2 money supply grew by 33.7%, or by 11.9% in real terms. The second feature of 1996 was the first decrease in the velocity of money during the reforms. So, if in 1993, 1994 and 1995. the average annual velocity of circulation of M2 was 8, respectively; 9.6 and 10.4, then in 1996 it dropped to 8.7%. The Central Bank regarded the medium-term decrease in the velocity of money circulation as an increase in the saturation of the economy with money and considered 1996 to be the most significant change in the state of the monetary sphere. At the same time, the question of the sufficiency of the money supply is of fundamental importance when choosing methods of anti-inflationary policy. The contraction of the money supply also means the limitation of means of payment in circulation. Therefore, the effectiveness of monetary policy is also determined by ensuring the need for turnover in means of payment. At the same time, there are no sufficiently reliable criteria for assessing the sufficiency of the money supply. The most used is the monetization coefficient - the ratio of M2 to the value of GDP. In the mid 90s. in Russia it was one of the lowest not only among developed countries, but also among developing countries. Depending on the monetary aggregate used, its value was estimated in the range of 0.13-0.16. For example, in 1995 in France it was 0.67; in England - 1.10; in Canada - 0.63. A lower monetization coefficient was observed only in Guinea, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and Zaire.

The low coefficient of monetization with a high velocity of money rather reflects the existing disproportions in the monetary sphere, and it is unlikely that a slowdown in the velocity of circulation under these conditions can be an indicator of the saturation of the economy with money. The growth of non-payments, debts, the widespread use of money surrogates, barter transactions, the accumulation of stocks of unsold products - all this testifies not only to shortcomings in the activities of enterprises, but also to a crisis in the monetary sector. In 1997, on the whole, the trends of the previous year were preserved: a real increase in the money supply, a decrease in the velocity of its circulation. The Central Bank of Russia considered that the probability that the accelerated growth rate of the money supply would lead to an increase in inflation rates was very small. However, in 1997 there were unfavorable changes in the structure of the money supply: the share of cash increased, which by the end of 1997 fluctuated in the range of 35-37%. This testified to the primitivization of economic relations and the limited possibilities of the monetary system, aimed at creating conditions for economic growth.

The active monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank of Russia made it possible to significantly reduce inflation, but financial stabilization was superficial. The continuing decline in production, the unresolved problem of payments and the formation of the revenue side of the state budget kept the threat of inflationary surges. The expansion of the money supply, based on a wide influx of funds from non-residents, created a fundamentally unstable balance in the financial market, since the inflow of foreign capital in a depressed economy has a speculative basis, requires increased profitability, and is subject to the slightest market fluctuations that can lead to a massive outflow of funds. The autumn crisis of 1997 revealed all the negative consequences of the growing dependence of the national monetary system on the funds of non-residents.

In the first half of 1997 alone, through the purchase by non-residents of GKO-OFZs and other securities on the domestic market, the economy received 12 billion dollars, which led to an increase in the money supply by 45-50 trillion. non-dominated rubles, or about 2/3 of its total growth over this period. The second channel for the inflow of funds from non-residents was the loans from foreign banks that hit the leading Russian commercial banks. Their net inflow amounted to 6 billion dollars in 11 months. 1997, or 27-30 trillion. rub. money supply growth.

The internally contradictory monetary policy pursued in 1997 was based on a broad inflow of funds from non-residents while reducing interest rates and government securities yields. By August 1998, the budget crisis combined with the global financial crisis had blown up the entire financial system of Russia.

2.5 Methods and tools

The weakness of Russia's monetary policy in the 90s. also manifested itself in the choice of methods and instruments of monetary regulation. Central banks have both direct and indirect methods at their disposal. Developed countries made the transition to predominantly indirect methods in the 1970s and 1980s. this century as part of the overall process of financial market liberalization.

In countries with economies in transition, in the absence of established market institutions and mechanisms of monetary regulation, central banks can primarily use methods of direct administrative influence at the first stages, for example, fixing interest rates, limiting the size of loans issued, and directed lending. At the same time, efficiency is achieved with the simultaneous use of a system of tools and organization of control over compliance with established standards.

In Russia, directed lending was mainly used as a direct instrument. The Central Bank of Russia determined a circle of special (authorized) banks that provided loans to a number of priority sectors of the national economy at interest rates significantly below market rates, and provided them with certain benefits in order to compensate. Such banks, as a rule, served budgetary accounts, and were also conductors of centralized loans to the economy. In the absence of proper control, such loans were used mainly to support unprofitable and unprofitable enterprises, market lending principles were violated, and banks incurred additional risks. At the same time, access to centralized loans and participation in targeted programs contributed to the fact that banks became accustomed to cheap public resources, and their competitiveness was critically dependent on the patronage of the public sector. In 1992, the share of centralized loans in the liabilities of commercial banks reached 52% and, although gradually decreasing, in 1995 it was still 25%. Cheap centralized and targeted loans through the mechanism of bank multiplication spun an inflationary spiral. An intermediate form in the system of refinancing commercial banks are credit auctions, which the Central Bank of Russia began to carry out in 1994 and held 11 auctions from February to December, at which resources were placed in excess of 898 billion rubles, while the interest rate fluctuated from 214 to 90% per year. Credit auctions contributed to the development of the interbank loan market, supported the liquidity of commercial banks and regulated the desired volume of loans.

The rejection of direct lending to priority sectors of the economy and the transition to the use of a broad monetary base as an operational goal allowed the Central Bank of Russia since 1996 to switch to indirect methods of monetary regulation using market instruments. However, the possibilities of effective regulation of the monetary sphere with the help of these instruments in transforming economies are limited. At first, the main instrument is the required reserve ratio. But if in developed countries, as noted earlier, central banks rarely resort to changing it so as not to disturb the existing competitive balance in financial markets, in Russia changing reserve requirements is, in fact, an operational tool. In this regard, in conditions of inflation, the required reserve ratio is quite high, which affects the resource base of commercial banks. In addition, it is often subject to adjustment, and this makes the policy of the Central Bank unpredictable, and sometimes inconsistent.

Another instrument of indirect regulation is the discount rate of the Central Bank, or the refinancing rate. The peculiarities of its use in Russia are related to the fact that it has never reflected the relationship between the real and monetary sectors of the economy. The Central Bank of Russia considered it inappropriate to refinance commercial banks through the accounting and rediscounting of promissory notes of industrial companies due to the low quality of these securities, since the credit histories of large borrowers had not yet formed, there was a weak legal basis for bill circulation, and its mechanism had not been formed. Therefore, the refinancing rate was rather virtual in nature, it was a kind of beacon indicating the direction of monetary policy, having a greater psychological impact on the behavior of credit institutions. In a transitional economy, there is most often a weak relationship between the discount rate of the Central Bank and the market rates of commercial banks. At the same time, given the significant dependence of banks on the resources of the interbank market, frequent and sharp fluctuations in it can have a very large impact on the liquidity of the banking system. In Russia, with the help of this tool, the Central Bank most often limited the growth of speculative operations.

Open market operations conducted by the Central Bank of Russia were carried out mainly to raise funds to finance the state budget deficit. Therefore, government securities from the very beginning had a high yield, were of a short-term nature. Attempts to place them for a long period were unsuccessful, since only speculative capital was present on the financial markets. When using this tool for non-inflationary coverage of government spending, there is always the so-called effect of crowding out private investment by public investment. In Russia, it worked in full force, as banks received a tool that allowed them to receive guaranteed high incomes, and were in no hurry to increase loans to enterprises. And if we take into account that market instruments were reduced to pawn loans and repo transactions allowed only to dealer banks, which were secured by the same GKOs and OFZs, then the activities of the Central Bank of Russia, in fact, continued to orient cash flows exclusively to the financial market, exposing real sector.

The narrowness and underdevelopment of financial instruments, the deformity of the banking system, the exorbitant burden of expenses for servicing the growing external and internal debt, and the ill-conceived policy of monetary regulation, in the end, caused a deep financial and economic crisis in Russia in August 1998, destroying the banking system and stocks and bods market.

The growing crisis was also evidenced by the dynamics of monetary and credit indicators in 1998, which ran counter to the goals and priorities of the monetary policy adopted for that year. First, a further increase in the money supply was assumed, including in real terms. In fact, in January-August 1998, the money supply in circulation M2 decreased by 8.1%, and in real terms it decreased by 23.3%. Secondly, the yield on GKO and OFZ was supposed to decrease to the level of 12-14%, but by August it reached 200%. The priority task was to reduce interest rates, but at first the Central Bank itself increased the refinancing rate to 80% by the end of July 1998, and after it all other financial market rates crept up.

Enterprises' ruble deposits dropped sharply in the first quarter of 1998 and continued to decline slowly in the second. As of the end of August, the volume of funds of enterprises in ruble accounts was 10.5% lower than the same indicator at the end of August 1997 and 28.3% lower than this indicator at the beginning of 1998. In July-August alone, it decreased by 9 ,eight %.

The value of the monetary base (in a narrow definition) for the eight months of 1998 decreased by 1.7%, the volume of required reserves - by 24%, and the cash supply increased by 2.8%.

The crisis of 1998, like any economic crisis, exposed all the disproportions that had accumulated in the economy, forcibly compelled them to seriously engage in a qualitative restructuring of the banking system. At the same time, he once again confirmed the importance of money in the economy and the fact that the regulation of the monetary sector should be carried out taking into account real economic conditions, based on a deep understanding of the relationships, on the search and development of adequate methods and instruments of monetary policy.

6 Features of post-crisis monetary policy

The government headed by Y.Primakov, which came to power in September 1998, aroused expectations of serious changes in macroeconomic policy. It was possible to assume an inflationary scenario based on numerous speeches by prominent members of the government calling for increased state intervention in the economy, compensation for population losses from the autumn 1998 crisis, and state support for the banking system. The government seemed ready to go into open confrontation with international financial institutions and foreign creditors.

However, in practice, the government of Y. Primakov showed the necessary caution and, as a result, ensured not only the adoption, but also the implementation of a strict budget for 1999 while pursuing a restrained monetary policy. An even greater degree of pragmatism can characterize the policy of the Government of the Russian Federation, headed by S. Stepshin and V. Putin.

Among the main goals of the exchange rate policy for 2000, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation identified smoothing significant fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate and maintaining gold and foreign exchange reserves at a level that ensures confidence in the ongoing monetary policy and the stability of the Russian monetary and financial system. The need was noted for improving the existing mechanism of mandatory reserve and its regulatory framework, expanding the volume of operations of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the open market and deposit operations with commercial banks. The interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia in 2000 was planned only in an indirect way: with the help of control over the volume of emission and operations on the open market, although due to the slow development of the domestic government securities market, these measures of monetary regulation were of limited importance.

The main directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2000 contained two basic scenarios for the development of the economy in 2000. According to the first (moderate) scenario, the growth of the money supply was to be 20-28%, inflation - about 18-22%, and the growth of real GDP - from 1 to 2%. The second (optimistic) scenario assumed significantly higher rates of real GDP growth (6–10%) with a slight increase in money supply M 2 (32–38% per year) compared to the first scenario, and inflation at the level of 25–28%.

The "freezing" in August 1998 of the government securities market significantly narrowed the instrumental capabilities of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, primarily for managing liquidity in the short term. In fact, throughout the entire post-crisis period, the Bank of Russia carried out operations on the open market only in the form of ruble and foreign exchange interventions in the foreign exchange market. The total volume of issued bonds of the Bank of Russia circulating on the market from September 1998 to February 1999 did not exceed 26 billion rubles (i.e., no more than 10% of the broad monetary base at the end of 1998), and the volume new GKOs issued in 2000 amounted to about 13.2 billion rubles (about 2% in relation to the broad monetary base in mid-2000), including the total turnover of all GKO-OFZs in the secondary market did not exceed 3–5 billion .rubles Under these conditions, the only instrument for sterilizing interventions at the disposal of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was deposit operations. Another tool for sterilizing the money supply can be called the accumulation of funds in the accounts of the federal budget due to the federal budget surplus, i.e. withdrawal of money from the economy through taxes and non-tax budget revenues. During the eleven months of 2000, the increase in balances on the accounts of the federal budget exceeded 64 billion rubles. Thus, by the beginning of December 2000, the total amount of money temporarily withdrawn from the economy in this way reached 103.8 billion rubles. However, in December 2000 the federal budget account balances decreased by 19 billion rubles.

On October 12, 1999, the Government of the Russian Federation approved the regulation on the specifics of the issue and registration of bonds of the Bank of Russia. The release of this financial instrument was supposed to give the Central Bank of the Russian Federation new opportunities for managing the money supply, in particular, the possibility of sterilizing ruble interventions in the foreign exchange market. However, auctions for their placement were held only once on December 14, 1999, but were not recognized as valid due to lack of demand at prices acceptable to the issuer.

The policy of reserve requirements was quite actively used by the Bank of Russia in 1998 and 1999. Thus, in order to overcome the liquidity crisis after the “freezing” of the GKO-OFZ market in 1998, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation reduced reserve requirements three times: from August 24, 1998, reserve requirements for term obligations and foreign currency accounts were reduced from 11% to 10%, and on deposits of individuals - from 8% to 7%. From September 1, 1998, the reserve requirements for the Sberbank of the Russian Federation and credit institutions whose share of investments in government securities (GKO-OFZ) in working assets is 40% or more were reduced to 5%, and for credit institutions whose the share of investments in government securities (GKO-OFZ) in working assets is less than 40% - up to 7.5%. The unification of reserve requirements at the level of 5% for all types and currencies of liabilities was carried out from December 1, 1998.

The refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 1999-2000 was even more symbolic than in the pre-crisis period. The cessation of repo operations and overnight refinancing of primary dealers has deprived the refinancing rate of indicators of the level of fees for the use of borrowed resources. Its role as a yield limiter in the secondary trading of government securities (the limit was equal to two times the refinancing rate) was important only in the first few months of the GKO-OFZ market recovery. In the future, the level of profitability in the market was significantly lower than the refinancing rate.

During 1999–2000, the Bank of Russia repeatedly reduced the refinancing rate, lowering it from 60% to 25% per annum (see Appendix 1). However, its dynamics simply followed trends in the growth rate of the consumer price index and in the level of rates on interbank loans and on the government securities market. In autumn 2000, the refinancing rate became negative in real terms.

Chapter 3. Unified State Monetary Policy in 21st century

It is only natural that the government is aware of the need to adjust monetary policy to the realities of today. Below we will trace the declared actions of the monetary authorities, called upon in the near future, ultimately, to carry out a sustainable growth of the country's economy.

3.1 Targets and results of monetary policy in 2001

The main parameters of monetary policy for the next year 2002 were calculated taking into account the forecast of the country's socio-economic development used by the Government of the Russian Federation in calculations for the draft federal budget for 2001. The predicted inflation rate of 12-14% corresponded to the GDP growth for 2001 by 4-5%. According to the calculations of the Bank of Russia, with such a combination of these macroeconomic parameters, the increase in demand for the ruble money supply, which forms the M2 aggregate, could be 27-34%. At the same time, given the instability of the velocity of money and the high degree of uncertainty in the formation of demand for money, the Bank of Russia proceeded from the inexpediency of tight control over the money supply and assumed a flexible response to changes in demand for the national currency, subject to a decrease in inflation and inflationary expectations. To this end, this year the Bank of Russia introduced the use of target inflation elements into the practice of implementing monetary policy.

Monetary policy was carried out under the conditions of a floating ruble exchange rate regime, which makes it possible to ensure the adaptation of the economy to changing external economic conditions and ensures the possibility of achieving an equilibrium exchange rate in the long term.

In January-July 2001, the inflation rate came close to the annual target figures: in seven months of 2001, consumer prices increased by 13.2%. Based on these results and available forecasts, inflation in 2001 will exceed the initial targets, but will be lower than last year. In 2001 inflation was significantly affected by factors beyond the control of the Bank of Russia. These include an increase in prices and tariffs for paid services to the population, primarily for housing and communal services and passenger transport, as well as an increase in prices and tariffs for goods and services of natural monopolies.

At the same time, however, it should be taken into account that economic growth this year is ahead of the parameters of the official forecast and, according to estimates, may exceed 5%. By pursuing a flexible monetary policy, the Bank of Russia supported economic growth, contributing to the gradual saturation of the economy with money in the context of economic growth.

Under conditions of a strong balance of payments and the Bank of Russia's accumulation of gold and foreign exchange reserves, the dynamics of the money supply in 2001 was determined mainly by the Bank of Russia's purchases of foreign currency in the domestic market, although the intensity of the impact of this factor somewhat decreased compared to the previous year. Thus, over the first seven months of 2000, Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by $10.8 billion, and over the corresponding months of 2001 - by $8.5 billion. The volume of purchases by the Bank of Russia of foreign currency was based on the need to achieve a stable long-term equilibrium exchange rate of the ruble, while the sterilization of free liquidity was carried out using the instruments of monetary regulation at the disposal of the Bank of Russia.

The rather favorable situation with public finances, which developed as a result of receipt of excess revenues, contributed to the accumulation of significant funds in the accounts of budgets of all levels and state off-budget funds in the Bank of Russia, which, on the one hand, reduced the severity of the problem of sterilization of free banking liquidity in the short term, and on the other hand, it increased the dependence of the state of the monetary system on financial flows associated with the centralized distribution of funds. Thus, uneven spending of budgetary funds during the year had an impact on bursts of inflation in certain months, distorting inflationary expectations.

During the first half of 2001, the trend towards a gradual increase in the monetization of the economy continued - the monetization coefficient increased over this period from 12.5% ​​to 13.4%.

In 2001, the positive downward trend in the velocity of money continued. According to the data for seven months of 2001, the velocity of money circulation in average annual terms, calculated on the M2 monetary aggregate, decreased by 7.5% - from 8 to 7.4. This process was facilitated by the balanced policy of the Bank of Russia in the money and foreign exchange markets, the improvement in the banking sector, and the growth in incomes of enterprises and the population.

At the same time, the degree of confidence in the banking system has not yet been fully restored, and the growth of household income has not reached the level at which a significant increase in personal savings is possible. As a result, compared to the previous year, the share of time deposits in the money supply structure even slightly decreased. So, if at the beginning of July 2000 their share was 24.8%, then by the beginning of July 2001 it had decreased to 23.7%. Such dynamics of low-liquid components of the money supply holds back a further more significant decrease in the velocity of money circulation. At the same time, the share of the most liquid component of the money supply - cash - remains at a high level (about 36% in the M2 aggregate), and in some periods it sharply increases due to uneven spending of budget funds for the social sphere.

According to the results of the first seven months of 2001, the money multiplier slightly increased, which was primarily due to the change in the banking system's liquidity level compared to the previous year. As of August 1, 2001, the value of the money multiplier calculated on the basis of the broad monetary base was 1.74 compared to 1.59 at the beginning of 2001. In the dynamics of the money multiplier, the main factor restraining its increase, as in the previous year, was the preservation of a significant share of cash.

As in other countries, in Russia the prevailing monetary conditions were determined not only by the policy of the Bank of Russia, but also by the interaction of monetary policy measures with the decisions of financial market participants. The economic growth that continued in 2001 and a certain decrease in credit risks, despite the rather high inflation rates observed in January-June in the conditions of a stable refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, led to a certain decrease in interest rates on loans provided by commercial banks to enterprises and organizations. The weighted average rate on loans to legal entities (including Sberbank of Russia) for up to 1 year decreased from 18.6% in January to 17.5-18.0% in April-June of the current year. At the same time, the decrease in interest rates was not absolutely stable, for example, in May and July 2001, as compared with previous months, the weighted average rate on loans to legal entities for up to a year increased.

Thus, an analysis of the state of the monetary sphere in 2001 testifies to the adequacy of the monetary policy pursued in 2001 to the goals and objectives set for that year. Taking into account the emerging trends in the dynamics of demand for money, we can expect that in general for the year the growth of the money supply will not go beyond the forecast range.

In order to ensure the correspondence between the demand for money and the money supply, the Bank of Russia used the monetary policy instruments at its disposal to influence the liquidity of the banking system.

The resumption of open market operations of the Bank of Russia with its own bonds in the first half of this year was hindered by legislative restrictions, and operations with government bonds were hindered by the absence of government securities in the portfolio of the Bank of Russia, which are in demand by market participants. Therefore, the operations of the Bank of Russia on the open market were limited to foreign exchange interventions.

Operations on the open market with bonds of the Bank of Russia, as well as with government securities (if the Government of the Russian Federation decides to re-register a sufficient part of their portfolio with the Bank of Russia into bonds with market characteristics) will expand the range of market-based monetary policy instruments for sterilization and for temporary replenishment of bank liquidity.

3.2 Monetary policy targets for 2002

The main task for the Bank of Russia in the medium term remains a smooth decline in inflation, for which in each subsequent year the inflation rate should be lower than the actual inflation of the previous year. Such a statement of the problem will contribute to the implementation of consistent steps towards reducing macroeconomic risks, consolidating the positive trends formed in previous periods, improving expectations, ensuring the growth of savings and investment, and thereby maintaining conditions for long-term economic growth. The decline in inflation in 2002 also largely depends on the extent to which the Government of the Russian Federation succeeds in preventing non-interest budget expenditures from exceeding the planned level and unevenness in the implementation of structural policy measures and spending of budget funds.

The implementation of measures to reduce inflation will support economic growth and help create conditions for increasing employment and incomes of the population, as provided for in the country's economic development programs for the medium and long term and the draft federal budget for 2002.

Since, in accordance with these programs, active implementation of structural reforms will continue in 2002, which will lead to an increase in prices and tariffs for goods that are basic for the consumer price index, this trend in the short term requires the active participation of the Government of the Russian Federation in actions to curb inflation, including the formation of a financial reserve at the expense of additional federal budget revenues received in 2001 and 2002.

Monetary policy for the coming year, as in the current year, is formed and will be carried out on the basis of two basic principles. The first is to continue applying elements of the inflation target method. The second is the use of the M2 monetary aggregate as an intermediate benchmark for monetary policy.

The first basic principle proceeds from the recognition that at present there is not a single indicator in Russia whose relationship with the ultimate goal of monetary policy would be stable, reliable and sufficiently predictable. Therefore, in order to achieve the ultimate goals of monetary policy, the Bank of Russia will analyze and take into account a wide range of indicators and their impact on inflation.

The second basic principle of the formation and implementation of the monetary policy for 2002 is to use the money supply aggregate M2 as a monetary indicator, with some short-term time lag influencing inflation.

In recent years, there has not been a close correlation between the dynamics of the M2 indicator and inflation in Russia. In this regard, the role of M2 in the analysis and evaluation of inflationary processes is noticeably reduced. However, under conditions of insufficient development of financial markets, the analysis of the dynamics of the M2 monetary aggregate is useful for assessing current monetary conditions, inflation expectations and future inflation.

In the Russian economic conditions, it is currently most expedient to use these principles. Despite the increasing importance of interest rates in the implementation of monetary policy, the Bank of Russia cannot use short-term interest rates as a benchmark in its implementation due to the underdevelopment of financial markets and the limited role of credit in financing the economy. In the future, in the medium term, while maintaining the floating exchange rate regime, it is possible to increase the role of interest rates both in the formation and implementation of monetary policy.

Monetary regulation is aimed at achieving a balance between the money supply and the demand for money. However, the prospective assessment of the latter is becoming more and more complicated. In particular, this is due to different duration and unstable time lags between the dynamics of individual components of the money supply and price growth, the uncertainty of inflation and devaluation expectations that affect the use of financial instruments by economic agents in national and foreign currencies.

Demand for money in 2002 will be formed mainly on the basis of the trends that have developed in 2000-2001, as well as under the influence of budgetary and structural policy measures proposed by the Government of the Russian Federation. First of all, factors such as tax cuts, which can contribute to the growth of disposable incomes of legal entities and individuals, the government's income policy, which has an impact on the gradual increase in the share of household income in GDP and an increase in the savings rate in the monetary income of the population, will be important. , the possibility of growth in demand for ruble-denominated assets in the context of further strengthening of the real exchange rate of the ruble while maintaining a strong balance of payments, the degree of intensification of lending activities and the growth of organized savings of the population, an increase in the need for funds to service transactions, and others.

At the same time, it is necessary to take into account possible contradictory trends in the dynamics of the velocity of money circulation. On the one hand, we can expect the process of increasing the degree of monetization of settlements to continue in the coming year, but on an objectively smaller scale than before (as of June of this year, settlements in cash by the largest Russian taxpayers and industrial monopolist organizations in the total volume of paid products amounted to 77.3%, and in the same period of 2000 - 67.7%). At the same time, a change in the nature of the relationship between the rate of inflationary processes and the growth rate of the money supply, provided that inflation is irreversibly reduced, makes it possible, as world experience shows, to more intensively saturate the economy with money. On the other hand, despite the growth in disposable money incomes of the population and the strengthening of the ruble in real terms, in the short term one should not count on a significant increase in the organized savings of the population, especially in the long term, due to an insufficiently high degree of confidence in the banking system, the absence of a deposit guarantee system, low interest rates on bank deposits. Therefore, the degree of decrease in the velocity of money in 2002 may be somewhat less than in the current year.

Taking into account the analysis of the impact of these factors and trends in accordance with macroeconomic goals and forecasts, the demand for money (according to the M2 aggregate) in 2002, according to the Bank of Russia, will increase by 24-28%.

The Bank of Russia will focus on the estimated growth parameters of the M2 monetary aggregate, but at the same time considers it possible to go beyond these limits due to significant uncertainty in the development of the economic situation. The deviation of the actual increase in the money supply from the predicted quantitative targets in the short term does not mean an immediate automatic adjustment of the policy without a thorough analysis of the reasons for the deviations, the expected duration of the influence of the factors that caused them, and the state of other economic indicators.

In 2002, the Bank of Russia will continue to apply the monetary policy operational procedure based on control over the growth of the money supply. At the same time, the regulation of the liquidity of the banking system will be carried out with the active use of market methods. The Bank of Russia will take into account both intra-annual and intra-month changes in the demand of the banking system for reserves, and, if necessary, the level of liquidity of the banking system will be promptly adjusted in cases of both a shortage and a tendency to accumulate free bank reserves, which will help smooth out sharp fluctuations in interest rates. money market rates and relieve pressure on the foreign exchange market.

The formation of the money supply in the volumes necessary to satisfy the economically justified demand for the national currency will be facilitated by the continuation in 2002 of the trend towards an increase in the money multiplier.

The expansion of bank lending activity, supported by the growing demand of the economy for credit resources, requires credit institutions to carefully monitor the risks associated with this process. A fairly frequent consequence of a sharp expansion of bank credit emission without proper risk control at the stage of economic growth in various countries is an increase in loan defaults and losses in the next phase of the economic cycle. In this regard, Russian banks should pay constant attention to the quality of loans issued and the formation of appropriate reserves to cover risks. For its part, the Bank of Russia will continue to improve the regime of prudential supervision of banks and monitor the level of banking risks.

Let us show the conditions for increasing the efficiency of monetary policy.

Influence of budgetary factors

Increasing the effectiveness of monetary policy largely depends on the actions of the Government of the Russian Federation in the public sector.

In recent years, the stability of the macroeconomic situation, significant economic growth and the policy of austerity in public spending have led to a noticeable stabilization of the public finance system. In the near future, an important goal of budgeting is to establish a level of public spending that would allow reducing public debt in the face of a reduction in the tax burden and slower economic growth.

In 2002, the federal government's fiscal position will need to be further strengthened to the extent that debt payments can be made on time and in full, against the backdrop of a gradual weakening of the factors that contribute to the growth of government revenues, as the burden of servicing external debt is still significant from a macroeconomic point of view. In this regard, it is necessary to form a financial reserve to optimize the state of the public sector, taking into account the upcoming external debt servicing schedule.

The federal budget surplus planned for the first time by the Government in 2002 (1.6% of GDP) is not a reason for easing monetary policy, since the inflation rate remains quite high.

The Government of the Russian Federation plans to use the federal budget surplus to pay off the state debt in the amount of 68.6 billion rubles and to form a financial reserve in the amount of 109.7 billion rubles as part of the sources of financing the federal budget deficit.

To ensure macroeconomic stability and achieve the inflation target, it is important to:

Prevention of exceeding the planned level of non-interest expenses;

· Ensuring uniform financing of budget expenditures throughout the year and their use by budget recipients to eliminate short-term bursts of inflation;

· formation of a financial reserve to maintain budget liquidity in the future. The financial reserve, accumulating additional government revenues from exports during a period of favorable external economic conditions, will make it possible to make payments on external debt, thereby contributing to the sterilization of monetary liquidity.

The completion of the transitional stage of the implementation of the Concept for the Functioning of the Single Account of the Federal Treasury of the Ministry of Finance of Russia for Accounting Revenues and Funds of the Federal Budget and the necessary work to prepare the final stage of the implementation of this Concept, as well as the activation of the process of transitioning budget execution subjects of the Russian Federation and local budgets for the treasury system.

The downward trend in federal government debt is projected to continue for the next three years. The foreign debt policy will be aimed at the annual reduction of its principal amount, which will lead to a decrease in interest payments on it. In the domestic market next year, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, as part of its debt refinancing policy, plans to raise slightly more funds than is required to repay the principal amount of the debt. Perhaps this will help overcome the stagnation in the government securities market. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation does not assume sufficient obligations to pay off the debt in foreign currency to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the near future and provides for the reissuance of illiquid government securities held in the portfolio of the Bank of Russia on market terms only in an insignificant amount relative to the total value of this portfolio. From the point of view of ensuring macroeconomic stability, the Bank of Russia considers it important in the context of the expected federal budget surplus to allocate part of the additional revenues for the early repayment of the Government of the Russian Federation's debt to the Bank of Russia, which will help create favorable prerequisites for sustainable macroeconomic development in the medium term.

Thus, in order to improve the effectiveness of the conduct of monetary policy in 2002, it is expedient to implement a number of measures in the field of public debt management:

· reissue federal loan bonds with a constant coupon income owned by the Bank of Russia as of January 1, 2002, in the amount of up to 30.0 billion rubles, into government securities with the payment of a coupon income corresponding to the rates on the organized securities market, or redeem the said securities ahead of schedule; paper;

· in order to reduce the indebtedness of the Russian Ministry of Finance to the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance should buy OFZ-PDs owned by the Bank of Russia ahead of schedule in the amount of up to 3.0 billion rubles;

· redeem promissory notes of the Ministry of Finance of Russia owned by the Bank of Russia, which are due in 2002, and pay interest on them;

· repay the corresponding part of the debt on funds in foreign currency provided by the Bank of Russia to the Ministry of Finance of Russia through Vnesheconombank to make payments for the repayment and servicing of the state external debt of the Russian Federation;

· make timely payment of coupon income on bonds of the internal state currency loan and the state currency loan of 1999.

Development of the banking sector

The main goal of further reform of the banking sector is the formation of a developed banking system that complies with international ideas about the modern banking business, aimed at meeting the needs of customers in high-quality banking services and contributing to the economic development of Russia.

The decisive influence on the development of the Russian banking sector in 2002 will be the practical implementation of the main strategic and tactical tasks of its reform, which involve further strengthening the stability of credit institutions and minimizing the possibility of a systemic banking crisis, improving the quality of performance of functions for accumulating savings of the population and enterprises and their transformation into loans. and investment, development of market discipline and transparency in the activities of credit institutions, strengthening corporate governance. The successful solution of these tasks largely depends on the promotion of general market reforms in the Russian economy, primarily including the structural, tax and legal components.

The trends in the development of the economy and the banking system in 1999-2001 give reason to believe that in the near future there will be a further increase in the real volume of banking operations, and the interest of banks in financial services to the real sector of the economy will increase. This will create the necessary prerequisites for an increase in the share of loans to enterprises and organizations in the assets of the banking sector, which will ultimately lead to an increase in the ratio of the main indicators of banking activity and the country's GDP.

· The adoption of a number of fundamental amendments to the current legislation aimed at further strengthening the legal foundations of banking activity can give an additional impetus to reforming the banking sector. In particular, the Federal Law "On counteracting the legalization (laundering) of proceeds from crime" adopted in August 2001 will help reduce banking risks and increase confidence in credit institutions.

It is necessary to complete the work on the adoption of a federal law regulating the functioning of the system of protection (guaranteeing, insurance) of deposits, as well as a new version of the Federal Law "On currency regulation and currency control."

Measures to improve the system of taxation of credit institutions may have a positive impact on the prospects for the development of the banking sector.

It is important for the development of the banking sector to attract foreign capital, for which there are currently no restrictions on participation in the capital of Russian banks. Measures to strengthen the legislative support for the rights of investors and creditors, reduce non-commercial risks of investments, and increase the transparency of information on the financial condition of credit institutions are called upon to stimulate the attraction of foreign investment in the banking sector.

In order to improve the efficiency and quality of analysis of the financial condition of credit institutions and the effectiveness of control over the reliability of bank statements, comprehensive methods will be introduced for analyzing the financial condition of credit institutions both at the stage of documentary supervision and at the stage of inspections aimed at identifying problems of credit institutions at an early stage. their occurrence.

Conclusion

The transformation of Russian society into a mixed system based on a socially oriented market economy means that a multisectoral mixed economy should replace the state-controlled economy. This also implies fundamentally new approaches to the role and functions of the state in such an economic system.

In general, all modern Western theories, one way or another developing the problem of the economic role of the state in a market economy, are located between two concepts that can be considered as an expression of extreme positions. This, on the one hand, is neo-Keynesianism, which advocates the expansion of state intervention in the economy, and, on the other hand, neoclassical models that call for a consistent reduction in state regulation. All other theories, in essence, represent a certain synthesis of the noted extreme positions. The emergence of these theories is largely the result of criticism of the above two opposite approaches to the scale, boundaries and methods of state regulation of the economy.

State regulation is a system that includes heterogeneous elements: goals, methods, tools, multipliers, etc. The more successful the combination of heterogeneous elements of the system, as well as the more it and its structure correspond to the current economic environment, the more effectively social and economic problems are solved that are beyond the control of market.

At the same time, active state intervention is accompanied by negative side effects. There are so-called flaws or "failures" of the state. State flaw - it is its inability to ensure the efficient distribution of resources and the conformity of social and economic policies with accepted ideas of justice in society.

One of the key elements of state regulation of the economy is monetary policy. Monetary policy is the regulation of the money supply and monetary circulation in the country through direct state influence or through the central bank of the country. Monetary policy ensures the proper functioning of the monetary system and money circulation, extending its influence to both money and prices.

As is known, the economic policy pursued in Russia at the first stage of market reforms in 1992-1993 was called monetarist by many, which should have emphasized its monetary orientation. The policy pursued at that time was, in a certain sense, really monetary, since it was based on the liberalization of prices, the regulation of the money supply in circulation, the transition to a two-tier banking system with all the ensuing consequences. But the actions of the reformers in the field of transformation of central planning, organizational structures of management, forms and relations of ownership led the policy pursued at that time far beyond purely monetary ones.

Monetary policy, by analogy with fiscal policy, sets the goals of stabilization, increasing the stability and efficiency of the economic system, overcoming crises, providing employment and economic growth. At the same time, fiscal policy is more pronounced counter-cyclical, linked to the budget and taxes, while monetary policy is limited to the stabilization of monetary circulation and focuses mainly on the money supply.

Accordingly, the targets of the monetary policy have their own peculiarities. This is the stabilization of the price level, the suppression of inflation, the stabilization of the purchasing power and the exchange rate of the national currency in the domestic and foreign markets, the provision of stable money circulation in conditions of free market prices, the regulation of the money supply, the supply and demand of money through the banking system.

Macroeconomic monetary policy in its monetary form is associated primarily with the impact on the money supply. Monetary policy is considered tight if the state reduces the money supply, limits emission, and helps maintain high interest rates for obtaining money on credit. Conversely, a monetary policy is said to be loose if the government promotes or at least does not prevent an increase in the money supply by weakly restraining the issuance of new money and helping to obtain cheap loans. The state conducts its emission policy mainly through the central bank of the country.

The refinancing policy, the policy of operations on the open market, the policy of reservation, and the policy of providing liquidity act as components and at the same time instruments of the state monetary policy. All these tools taken together make it possible to regulate the money supply in circulation and individual monetary aggregates, and thereby have an indirect impact on the dynamics of market prices, inflation rates, commodity-money relations between producers and consumers, market exchange, income and expenses of market entities.

The refinancing policy, which is also called the accounting policy, is an expression of the interest rate policy, it lies in the influence of the central bank through the Interest rate on the volume of credit resources and, accordingly, the money supply in circulation. The Central Bank sets a discount rate of interest, according to which it rediscounts bills of exchange from commercial banks and provides them with loans. More broadly, commercial banks. Acquire, buy credit money from the central bank and then resell it to their borrowers, refinancing. So the central bank is able to influence the price of credit money in the financial market. By raising the price, increasing its discount rate (at which commercial bank bills sold to it are taken into account), the central bank restrains the demand for loans and narrows the money supply in circulation, and by lowering the discount rate, it helps to increase the money supply. The central bank is also able to set restrictive contingents for refinancing, exerting a direct influence on the amount of monetary expansion.

The refinancing policy is an integral part of the interest rate regulation policy, an interest rate policy that can be carried out not only by the central bank and commercial banks, but by any. interest-bearing lenders. However, in the latter case, there is revenge for going beyond the limits of the state monetary policy.

The central bank is able to regulate the money supply and influence the circulation of money through open market operations, acting as a seller or buyer of government securities. The very issue of such securities in the form of bonds, treasury obligations becomes an act of the state monetary policy. By purchasing government securities and organizing the sale and purchase on the open market, the central bank promotes a certain monetary policy. By selling securities, the central bank withdraws money from circulation and narrows the money supply, and by buying securities on the open market, the central bank expands the money supply, carrying out, as it were, additional emission.

The state can effectively influence the value of the active money supply by implementing a reserve policy through the central bank. The Central Bank has the right to oblige commercial banks to keep a certain part of their assets in the form of an interest-free reserve with the Central Bank. The higher the rate of such a reserve, the less opportunity commercial banks have to freely operate their money, that is, there is a decrease in the money supply. A decrease in the reserve ratio leads to an increase in the money supply in circulation. If there is a shortage of money in circulation, the reserve ratio should be reduced, and if there is an excess of money, it should be increased.

The supply of money by commercial banks depends on whether they have money issued by the central bank. So the central bank, and in its person the state, has the ability to regulate the supply of money supply co parties of commercial banks in the course of implementing the policy of providing liquidity by changing the amount of money placed at the disposal of commercial banks for their operations.

Despite the fact that the state, using the central bank, holds in its hands powerful means of influencing the money supply, conducting monetary policy, in a number of critical situations it turns out to be far from omnipotent. A typical example here is the crisis of the summer of 1998, which was largely due to the irresponsible policy of the central authorities. I would like to hope that the implementation of the new government program for the implementation of monetary policy will be the condition that will be able to ensure high-quality and stable growth of the domestic economy.

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APPENDIX 1

The refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 1998-2000

See: Keynes J.M. General theory of employment, interest and money. M., 1978. S. 48-52.

Ibid, p. 78-81.

See Economic theory. / Ed. Kamaeva V.D. M., 2000. S. 482-484.

Keynes J.M. General theory of employment, interest and money. M., 1978. S. 144.

Illarionov A. Myths and lessons of the August crisis // Questions of Economics. –1999. - No. 11. pp. 31-33.

State regulation of the market economy. M., 2001. S. 113.

Illarionov A. Myths and lessons of the August crisis // Questions of Economics. –1999. - No. 11. pp. 36-39.

Gerashchenko V.V. On monetary policy and the course of restructuring the banking system // Money and credit. –2000. - No. 6. - P. 5-13.

All numerical indicators of this chapter cit. Quoted from: Main Directions of the Unified State Monetary Policy for 2002 // Money and Credit. - 2001. - No. 12. - S. 3-39.

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COURSE WORK

Influence of money-crepolicy on the economy of the Russian Federation

Introduction

The theme of this work is "The impact of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation."

The purpose of the work: improving the impact of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation.

The importance of studying this problem lies in the fact that monetary policy occupies a decisive place in the economic policy of the state. And the process of evolution of the Russian banking system is presented as a gradual restructuring of the monetary policy tools of the Bank of Russia. Obviously, the composition of tools and methods (this is the meaning we put into the concept of tools) should ensure an effective interest rate policy in the future and, through the interbank credit market, influence processes in the non-financial sector of the economy. Modern trends in world economic development and a new stage in the functioning of the Russian economy have necessitated a revision of the theoretical foundations and practical methods of conducting monetary policy. Monetary policy is a set of measures in the field of monetary circulation and loans aimed at regulating economic growth, curbing inflation, providing employment and equalizing the balance of payments.

Russia has already developed a credit system that is different from the two world models: American and German. There are universal banks in the country (this is how it differs from the American model), as well as a fairly developed sector of specialized credit institutions (this is how it differs from the German model).

It should be noted that the Russian banking system poorly performs its second main function - lending. As a result, due to the high cost of lending, half of Russian industrial enterprises do not resort to bank loans. Under the current conditions, the issue of restructuring the banking system is acute. In particular, as part of the preparation by the Bank of Russia of the Concept for the Development of the Banking System, it is proposed to adopt the Law “On the Insolvency (Bankruptcy) of Credit Institutions” and the Law “On the Restructuring of Credit Institutions”, as well as ensuring the efficient operation of the Agency for the Restructuring of Credit Institutions (ARKO).

The main carriers of modern monetary policy are: the Central Bank of the country and the Ministry of Finance; the largest commercial banks performing a backbone role in the national banking sector; association of commercial banks; analytical and scientific centers of the national banking system.

Thus, monetary policy is very important for any state, especially today, when the main function of the state is to provide the market economy with a sufficient amount of cash. It is also worth noting that the general state of the economy to a greater extent depends on the state of the monetary and credit sphere. Suffice it to say that from 75 to 90% of the money supply in most countries are bank deposits and only 10 - 25% of the central bank notes. It should not be noted that the views on the regulation of the monetary and credit sphere have changed repeatedly for a long time. The number and quality of state measures regulating monetary circulation increased.

Thus, in this work it is necessary to identify the most relevant and most effective tools for regulating the monetary sphere, which must be used to achieve the main goal of monetary policy.

The objectives of this course work:

Determine the essence of monetary policy

Consider the factors influencing the formation of monetary policy

Reveal the features of monetary policy

Analyze the mechanism of influence of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation

Consider the current state of the state monetary policy of the Russian Federation

To identify problems arising as a result of the influence of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation

Explore the prospects for improving monetary policy in the Russian economy

Assess the effectiveness of the impact of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation

In this work, articles from journals such as: "Economic Issues", "Finance and Credit", "Money and Credit", "Economics", "Economic Science of Modern Russia", as well as economic dictionaries were used. This literature allows you to more accurately analyze the impact of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation, as well as solve the main tasks of the course work.

1. Theoretical aspects of determining the essence of monetary policy

1.1 The essence of monetary policy

credit economy monetary

From the point of view of economic theory, monetary policy is a set of government measures in the field of money circulation and loans. From the position of finance, monetary policy is a set of interrelated measures taken by the central bank in order to regulate aggregate demand through a planned impact on the state of the loan and money circulation.

Monetary policy in the economic literature is most often defined as the policy of the central bank that affects the amount of money in circulation. According to the comments to the federal law "On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)", monetary policy is defined as the main part of the unified state economic policy, manifested in the impact on the amount of money in circulation in order to achieve price stability, ensure the maximum possible employment population and growth in real output. A more accurate interpretation of this category is carried out by Simanovsky A.Yu. Monetary policy is defined by him as "the management of the money supply or the creation of conditions for the access of economic entities to loans and (or) at an interest rate corresponding to certain economic goals." Unlike the first definition, the second one emphasizes the possibility of the influence of monetary policy not only on the sphere of circulation, but also on the sphere of production.

The objectives of monetary policy are divided into two groups.

The first group includes economic goals aimed at maintaining economic activity and reducing unemployment:

Regulation of economic growth rates;

Increase GDP;

Mitigation of cyclical fluctuations in the market of goods, capital and labor;

Curbing inflation;

Stimulating the growth of the volume of monetary operations;

Achieving a balanced balance of payments and others.

The second group, respectively, includes social tasks:

Raise the standard of living of the population;

Make various services more accessible and others.

Monetary policy is closely linked to domestic political and economic relations, especially inflation and economic growth. Moreover, it is used not as a separate element of economic regulation, but in conjunction with such instruments as financial policy, income policy, and others. Credit performs primarily redistributive function. With its help, free money capital and incomes of enterprises, households, and the state are accumulated and converted into loan capital, which is transferred for a fee (in the form of interest) for temporary use. Through the credit mechanism, loan capital is redistributed on the basis of repayment between sectors of the economy, rushing to those areas that provide greater profits or are given preference in accordance with national economic development programs.

Yeroshin believes that monetary policy is the course of the state in the sphere of monetary circulation and credit relations.

Monetary regulation is: a) one of the functions of managing the state's economy in an indirect form of its manifestation and is a targeted impact of the state with the help of a special regulatory mechanism on the sphere of monetary circulation and credit relations; b) one of the subsystems for ensuring the implementation of the state course in the economy by monetary methods.

The monetary mechanism is a set of forms, methods, tools and levers of monetary regulation.

Let's compare the goals of monetary policy with the main elements of the system of economic security. To do this, first of all, we will identify what threats to the economic security of the state are taken into account when determining the goal of monetary policy. As a rule, the central bank of the state is responsible for setting the goals of monetary policy. These goals are reflected in the relevant regulatory and legislative acts. But the indisputable goal is price stability. At the same time, the desire to maintain price stability is parallel to the desire to ensure full employment and real GDP growth. It should be noted that some economists consider incorrect monetary policy as the main threat to economic development, considering it to be the main cause of economic crises.

This necessitates the introduction of such regulatory mechanisms that can mitigate the negative effects of monetary policy.

1.2 Factors influencing the formation of monetary policy

World experience shows that the main factors determining the formation and implementation of monetary policy include, first of all: the macroeconomic conditions for its implementation; external economic factors; social and economic policy of the country; structural changes in the economy; the state of the public sector; information uncertainty; state and liberalization of the financial market, its globalization.

When evaluating the effectiveness of monetary policy, one should also take into account the factors that determine its formation and implementation. We propose to systematize them as follows.

Rice. 1. Factors affecting the effectiveness of the formation and implementation of monetary policy

One of the most important factors influencing the monetary policy is the macroeconomic situation in the country, which is confirmed by experts from the Bank for International Settlements.

Fluctuations in lending and investment, asset prices have become a serious source of macroeconomic instability in both developing and industrialized countries. As a result, financial crises and existing macroeconomic consequences have become more frequent and deep.

The next factor influencing the implementation of monetary policy is the goals of socio-economic development, which may conflict with the immediate objectives of monetary policy. Often the emergence of such a dilemma between the targets of the economic policy of the state and monetary policy occurs in conditions of crisis processes and social upheavals.

Monetary policy is being carried out in conditions where it is simultaneously required to ensure an increase in the standard of living of the population and structural modernization of the economy. This determines the main limitation - monetary policy must be carried out taking into account the trade-off between consumption and investment. In addition, additional resources are required to pay off the external debt and ensure the country's security, as well as to solve a set of social problems. Significant regulation of prices and tariffs on the consumer price index reduces the effectiveness of using money supply indicators as an intermediate benchmark for monetary policy.

External economic factors that determine monetary policy are mainly related to the uncertainty in the dynamics of world prices for energy carriers, which form the basis of Russian exports. A significant decrease in these prices entails a reduction in the trade balance and a decrease in the inflow of foreign currency.

High prices for Russian exports have long been a fundamental factor in the managed floating exchange rate regime, under which the Bank of Russia actively counteracted excessive ruble appreciation by intervening in the domestic foreign exchange market. The change in the terms of trade led to a decrease in the imbalance between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, the weakening of the ruble and a decrease in the need for the presence of the Bank of Russia on it.

The most important internal factor that influences the implementation of the monetary policy is the change in the principles of formation of the state budget (budget policy):

Planning and approval of the federal budget for a three-year period in the form of a law;

Distribution of revenues (oil and gas and non-oil and gas revenues) with determination of the size of the oil and gas transfer directed to federal budget expenditures and to the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund.

An internal factor that indirectly affects monetary policy is the degree of confidence in the central bank as the body responsible for its implementation. A central bank with low public confidence is forced to pursue a more restrictive monetary policy. Abrupt changes in the central bank's interest rate can be understood by the public as evidence of its errors in economic development forecasts and the inconsistency of monetary policy. This may lead to a loss of confidence in the central bank and reduce the effectiveness of its monetary policy.

Therefore, the central bank should not make adjustments to interest rate policy too often and only when it has sufficient information and a reasonable forecast about current and upcoming macroeconomic shocks.

1.3 The mechanism of influence of monetary policy on the economy

The mechanism of influence of monetary policy on the state of the economy is rather complicated. Therefore, in the process of making decisions regarding monetary policy, central banks consider three groups of indicators: ultimate goals, determined by global macroeconomic indicators; intermediate (operational) goals or benchmarks, as well as methods and tools, which are a set of measures to achieve the goals.

The ultimate goals of monetary policy are directly related to the objectives of economic policy as a whole and represent the maintenance of price stability, the value of the national currency in the domestic and foreign markets, and the containment of inflationary processes.

Types (directions) of monetary policy

From the point of view of goals, two main types (directions) of monetary policy are distinguished: monetary restriction and monetary expansion.

Restrictive monetary policy is aimed at limiting monetary emission, i.e. to a reduction in the money supply in circulation. This is the so-called dear money policy, which is usually carried out during periods of high inflation.

Expansionary monetary policy is accompanied by an expansion of monetary emission, i.e. an increase in the money supply in circulation. This is the so-called cheap money policy; it is usually carried out during periods of economic recession in order to provide conditions for expanding lending to enterprises and stimulating investment activity. Through credit expansion, central banks pursue the goal of raising production and revitalizing the conjuncture; with the help of credit restrictions, they are trying to prevent the “overheating” of the conjuncture, observed during periods of economic upswing, and to limit inflationary processes.

Thus, situations where a decline in production is accompanied by intense inflationary processes are of particular difficulty for monetary authorities. This situation, which in the economic literature is called stagflation (from "stagnation" plus "inflation"), requires the regulators to choose a system of interrelated instruments of monetary, financial and other areas of economic regulation and clear interaction in the conduct of economic policy in all its aspects.

There are four links in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy:

Change in the value of the real money supply (M / p) S as a result of the revision of the relevant policy by the central bank;

Changes in the interest rate in the money market;

The reaction of total costs (especially investment) to the dynamics of the interest rate;

Change in the volume of emission in response to a change in aggregate demand (total costs).

Between the change in the money supply and the reaction of the aggregate supply, there are two more intermediate stages, the passage through which significantly affects the final result.

A change in the market interest rate occurs by changing the structure of the asset portfolio of economic agents after, as a result of, say, the expansionary monetary policy of the central bank, they have more money on hand than they need. The consequence, as you know, will be the purchase of other types of assets, cheaper loans, i.e. The result is a reduction in interest rates.

However, the reaction of the money market depends on the nature of the demand for money. If the demand for money is sufficiently sensitive to changes in the interest rate, then the result of an increase in the monetary aggregate will be a slight change in the rate. Conversely, if the demand for money reacts poorly to the interest rate, then an increase in the money supply will lead to a significant drop in the rate.

Obviously, disruptions in any link of the transmission mechanism can lead to a decrease or even the absence of any results of monetary policy. For example, insignificant changes in the interest rate in the money market or the lack of reaction of the components of aggregate demand to the dynamics of the rate break the link between fluctuations in the money supply aggregate and the volume of money supply. These violations in the operation of the monetary policy transmission mechanism are especially pronounced in countries with economies in transition, when, for example, the investment activity of economic agents is associated not so much with the interest rate in the money market, but with the general economic situation and investors' expectations.

In the context of public administration, it would be more acceptable to perceive politics in the form of a certain state course or general line of the state. Management of the economy should be understood as a conscious purposeful impact on it by government institutions.

In this case, it is logical to name what functions the control contains. And the economic mechanism is a set of forms, methods, levers and tools by which the economy is managed. Depending on the management model, some functions will have higher priority. Thus, in the conditions of an administrative-command economy, the planning function is a priority, and in a market economy, regulation. It should be taken into account that the process of implementing each of the functions involves the formation of its own control system (subsystem) and the manifestation of elements of other functions. For example, the regulation function can be interfaced with all control functions.

2. The current state of monetary policy ineconomy of the Russian Federation

2.1 Assessment of the current statestate monetary policy of the Russian Federation

Monetary policy is an integral part of the state's economic policy, the main strategic goals of which are to improve the welfare of the population and ensure maximum employment. Based on this long-term strategy, the main guidelines for the government's macroeconomic policy are usually to ensure GDP growth and reduce inflation.

Its ultimate goals are formulated in accordance with the goals of macroeconomic policy adopted for the current year.

The main direction of monetary policy as an integral part of the modern economic policy of Russia is the gradual reduction of inflation and maintaining it at a certain level.

Ideally, monetary policy is designed to ensure price stability, full employment and economic growth - these are its highest and ultimate goals. However, in practice, with its help, it is also necessary to solve narrower tasks that meet the urgent needs of the country's economy.

We must not forget that monetary policy is an extremely powerful and therefore extremely dangerous tool. With its help, it is possible to get out of the crisis, but a sad alternative is not ruled out - the aggravation of the negative trends that have developed in the economy. Only very balanced decisions made at the highest level after a serious analysis of the situation, consideration of alternative ways of influencing monetary policy on the economy of the state, will give positive results. The central emission bank of the state acts as a conductor of monetary policy. Without the correct monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank, the economy cannot function effectively.

The Bank of Russia has prepared a draft unified state monetary policy for the next three years, the priority goal of which will be to maintain the planned inflation rate of 4.5 percent in 2014 and 2015 and 4 percent in 2016. In addition, the Bank of Russia intends to continue increasing exchange rate flexibility, including by reducing the volume of interventions, and by 2015 complete the transition to a floating exchange rate regime.

The Bank of Russia will use the key rate as the main indicator of the monetary policy direction. At the same time, by January 1, 2016, the Bank of Russia will adjust the refinancing rate to the level of the key rate. Until that date, the refinancing rate will be of secondary importance. In carrying out operations to regulate the liquidity of the banking sector, the Bank of Russia will strive to maintain overnight money market rates at the level of the key rate. At the same time, interbank lending should play the main role in the redistribution of liquidity among market participants.

In order to create conditions for a more active redistribution of funds in the interbank market and improve the efficiency of managing their own liquidity by credit institutions, starting from February 1, 2014, the Bank of Russia will stop holding REPO auctions on a daily basis for a period of 1 day and will use auction-based REPO operations for periods from 1 to 6 days as a "fine tuning" tool.

Should it become necessary to compensate for the effects of sudden changes in the banking sector's liquidity level due to the action of autonomous factors or changes in credit institutions' demand for liquidity, the Bank of Russia will promptly decide to conduct these operations. It should also be noted that the draft prepared by the Bank of Russia considers 4 options for conducting monetary policy. The options differ in expected external conditions in 2014:

· taking into account the preservation of the average annual oil price at a level close to 2013: option II (b) - investment growth - 3.9 percent, increase in GDP up to 2.8 percent; option II(a) - increase in investments - 3.0 percent, increase in GDP - 2.0 percent.

The prerequisites for external conditions included in the forecast differ between the options. Options II(a) and II(b) assume a gradual improvement in the situation in the global economy and the maintenance of the average annual oil price at a level close to the level of 2013. Options I and III provide for an upward and downward deviation of the average annual oil price by $25 in the context of a slower and faster global economic recovery, respectively.

With regard to internal conditions, it is assumed that the structural reforms outlined by the Government of the Russian Federation will be implemented (it is expected that the announced reforms will be consolidated by the relevant regulatory legal acts and decisions). At the same time, option II(b) proceeds from the premise of a relatively rapid improvement in the business climate and an increase in the competitiveness of the Russian economy, while the Bank of Russia options assume that the impact of structural reforms on the economy will be more extended over time and will not lead to a significant increase in investment activity of the private sector in the three-year period under review. All options take into account the change in the order of indexation of regulated tariffs for goods and services of infrastructure companies: indexation of tariffs for the population in 2014-2016 based on the inflation rate of the previous year with a reduction factor of 0.7; invariance in 2014 and indexation at the level of inflation of the previous year in 2015 and 2016 of tariffs for other categories of consumers.

Regarding the budget policy in all options, it is assumed that it will be carried out in 2014-2016 within the framework of the existing budget rules. The forecasts of the Bank of Russia for the main macroeconomic parameters also take into account the impact on domestic conditions from the ongoing monetary policy aimed at achieving inflation targets.

The Bank of Russia in 2014 will continue to pursue an exchange rate policy that does not prevent the formation of trends in the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate due to the action of fundamental macroeconomic factors, without setting any fixed restrictions on the level of the national currency exchange rate. At the same time, during this period, the Bank of Russia will gradually increase the exchange rate flexibility, including by reducing the volume of Bank of Russia interventions aimed at smoothing fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, as well as increasing the sensitivity of the boundaries of the operating interval to the volume of interventions made by the Bank of Russia, thereby creating conditions for market participants to adapt to exchange rate fluctuations caused by external shocks.

By 2014, the Bank of Russia plans to modify the exchange rate policy mechanism, according to which the volume of foreign exchange interventions aimed at smoothing out excessive volatility of the ruble exchange rate will be adjusted by an amount determined taking into account the movement of funds of sovereign funds and the action of factors that form the liquidity of the banking sector. The planned changes will be implemented as part of work to gradually increase exchange rate flexibility and reduce the presence of the Bank of Russia in the domestic foreign exchange market.

In 2014, work will be completed on creating conditions for the transition to a floating exchange rate regime, which implies the abandonment of the use of operational exchange rate policy targets related to the level of the exchange rate, which will allow the Bank of Russia to concentrate on managing market interest rates to achieve the inflation target. At the same time, the Bank of Russia will continue to carry out operations in the domestic foreign exchange market as part of solving the tasks of regulating the level of liquidity in the banking sector. This practice does not contradict the concept of a floating exchange rate regime and is successfully used by developed countries that have sovereign funds. In addition, this regime does not preclude targeted foreign exchange interventions in order to maintain financial stability in the event of shock events. In the context of increased exchange rate flexibility, the ruble exchange rate will be formed under the influence of predominantly market factors, including cross-border capital flows, which are subject to sharp and difficult to predict fluctuations following changes in the mood of financial market participants . This will result in an increase in the uncertainty of the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in the medium term, which will necessitate further development of the market for derivative financial instruments to manage exchange rate risk by economic agents both in the real and in the financial sector.

At the same time, the provision of price stability by the Bank of Russia will support the purchasing power of the ruble, which will increase the confidence of economic agents in the national currency and will contribute to its depreciation.

The Bank of Russia will attach great importance to explaining to financial market participants the current operating procedure, as well as the specifics of applying monetary policy instruments. .

2.2 Analysis of the impact of monetary policy on the economy of the Russian Federation

The implementation of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the conditions of instability and variability of the external and internal conditions of the country's economy inevitably faces a number of problems.

First, the very assessment of the state of economic development (which is necessary for the Central Bank to take the most rational measures) is a difficult problem.

Secondly, regulation within the framework of the national economy becomes more complicated due to the influence of external economic processes. The result is that the target orientation of the measures taken can be distorted. When regulating, the Central Bank must take into account not only the interconnections within the world economy, but also the interdependence of the links of the national economy.

The instability of the Russian economy leads to the instability of supply and demand in the credit market, revealing the positive and negative aspects of the methods of lending to the national economy. Thus, the relevance of a loan secured by valuables is falling due to the collateral value, the frequent impossibility of a quick sale of collateral, etc.

In addition, the sphere of functioning of the credit market involves the receipt of considerable income by its participants. Therefore, this market mechanism is attractive for various kinds of fraud.

It should also be noted the need to develop legislative support for consumer lending as an indirect source of lending to the real sector of the economy, which has recently been developing at the fastest pace.

Recently, the problem of shortage of cash and non-cash funds has become aggravated in Russia, which manifests itself in the low ratio of the money supply to GNP / GDP. This indicator is called the monetization coefficient. In Russia, this indicator remains quite high in 2014: 16-17% (according to the Bank of Russia). This indicator indicates that the country has a low level of cash saturation of economic turnover and the largest shortage of money, both in cash and non-cash circulation.

The shortage of money supply in circulation and the persistently high state spending lead to an increase in the share of the country's monetary resources allocated to cover budget expenditures.

In addition, the cash turnover in the country is increasing in terms of cost structure. The reasons for the growth of cash turnover are manifold. These include: The economic crisis; Crisis of non-payments; Cash crisis; Poor organization of the system of interbank settlements; Calculation slowdown.

Deliberate reduction of profits and incomes of enterprises in order to evade taxes and expand cash payments outside the banking system.

A sharp increase in cash turnover leads to an increase in the costs of the state for the circulation, transportation, storage of cash, as well as the replacement of worn-out banknotes.

Performing settlement and cash transactions, the banks of the Russian Federation regulate the volume of cash money supply and its circulation. In conditions of limited resources, many commercial banks cannot fully provide cash and non-cash services to the population and legal entities, which leads to a loss of profit from these operations.

The money market for cash is also characterized by increased risk: forgery of banknotes, computational errors of cash services, a significant amount of cash transactions, etc. Such risks lead to disruption of settlement and cash operations in credit institutions and reduce the efficiency of these operations.

Another negative factor is that the velocity of money tends to change in the opposite direction to the supply of money, thereby slowing down or eliminating changes in the money supply caused by politics, that is, when the supply of money is limited, the velocity of money tends to increase. Conversely, when policy measures are taken to increase the money supply during a recession, the velocity of money is very likely to fall.

In addition, one of the main problems of the money market in any country is inflation. Especially the negative factors of inflation are manifested in the depreciation of capital in cash and non-cash forms, in the fall in purchasing power, in the ruin of uncompetitive enterprises, in the general economic crisis. The turnover of cash and non-cash funds is always associated with the risk of not getting the expected amount of return both for the state as a whole and for an individual subject. Inflation deprives the Central Bank of effectively conducting monetary policy in the country.

The Central Bank of any state regulates the circulation of money not directly, but through the monetary and credit systems. Influencing credit institutions (banks), he creates certain conditions for their work. To a certain extent, the direction of the activities of commercial banks and other financial institutions depends on these conditions, which influences the course of the country's economic development.

By implementing monetary policy, influencing the lending activities of commercial banks and directing regulation to expand or reduce lending to the economy, the central bank achieves stable development of the domestic economy, strengthening monetary circulation, and balancing domestic economic processes. Thus, the impact on credit makes it possible to achieve deeper strategic objectives for the development of the entire economy as a whole. On the other hand, excess money supply has its drawbacks: the depreciation of money, and, as a result, the decline in the living standards of the population, the deterioration of the monetary situation in the country. Accordingly, in the first case, monetary policy should be aimed at expanding the lending activities of banks, and in the second case, at its reduction, the transition to a “dear money” (restriction) policy.

3. Main Directions for Improving Monetary Policy in order to Improve the Economic Condition of the Russian Federation

3.1 Monetary policy as a direction forimprovement of monetary policy in the economy of the Russian Federation

The improvement of the monetary sphere of the Russian economy is carried out with the help of joint actions of the Central Bank and the state. The purpose of the monetary policy of the Central Bank in the monetary sphere is to create conditions in the money market for the economy to constantly have such a mass of money and loans that is necessary for development, and thereby provide the country with a growing number of goods, services, workers. places. To compensate for the loss of purchasing power, lenders must add a certain percentage (corresponding to the rate of inflation) to the rates they would otherwise charge. Therefore, if the growth of inflation is due to the growth of the money supply, it can actually lead to an increase in interest rates.

In its most general form, monetary policy can be defined as the management of the money supply or the creation of conditions for the access of economic entities to loans in volumes and (or) at an interest rate corresponding to certain economic goals. The components of monetary policy are: monetary (in the narrow sense) policy, as a policy of regulating the amount of money in circulation (money supply); interest rate policy - the policy of regulating the general level of interest rates in the economy; exchange rate policy (currency policy in the narrow sense) - the policy of regulating the level and dynamics of the exchange rate of the national currency against foreign ones (so far, mainly against the US dollar). Raising the issue of activating monetary policy in order to stimulate economic growth makes it necessary to determine the limits and consequences of the possible impact of such activization on the economy, primarily on the dynamics of production and price growth.

It is advisable to analyze the potential impact of monetary policy on the dynamics of production at the micro level (enterprise level).

To conduct monetary policy, the reserve system of the Russian Federation has four main tools:

change in the level of reserve requirements;

· Changes in the interest rates that banks must pay when they borrow from a central institution (discount rate). In general, it is believed that the impact of the interest rate on the economy leads to an increase in economic growth. Thus, a reduction in the average rate by 1% gives an increase in the annual economic growth of the country by 1/3 percent;

purchase and sale of government securities (open market operations);

· definition of conditions for various types of loans (selective credit control).

In addition, to create optimal conditions for the development of the money market in Russia, it is necessary to:

Improving the legislative framework in the field of monetary policy;

Decreased dollarization of Russian money circulation;

Strengthening incentives for investment activity;

Improving the tax system;

Reducing inflation and pursuing a price containment policy;

Introduction and improvement of electronic money circulation;

Development and application of a wide range of forms of non-cash circulation;

Strengthening control over the legality of cash and non-cash transactions to prevent possible illegal actions and others.

To increase the speed and efficiency of cash and non-cash turnover, it is very important to develop a mechanism for providing guarantees. Currently, this is the provision of state guarantees. However, only state guarantees cannot fully meet the needs of commercial structures in guarantees. Thus, the improvement of the money market situation in Russia will lead to the strengthening of the national currency and the stabilization of the monetary system as a whole, which, in turn, will have a positive impact on the entire range of economic processes in the country.

3.2 Bank refinancing

Refinancing is one of the most important monetary policy instruments used by central banks.

Refinancing refers to the provision of loans by the central bank to commercial banks when they have exhausted their resources and are unable to replenish them from other sources (for example, in the interbank credit market or the securities market) on acceptable terms.

Refinancing loans are issued, as a rule, only to stable banks experiencing temporary liquidity difficulties. By refinancing banks, the Central Bank performs both the function of implementing monetary policy and the function of a lender of last resort or a bank of banks. At the same time, when issuing loans, as a lender of last resort, the Central Bank sets interest rates, which can be, in fact, penal in nature and be higher than market rates.

Refinancing loans are classified according to:

§ availability and forms of collateral (accounting, pawnshop, without collateral);

§ methods of provision (direct loans and loans provided through auctions);

§ terms of provision (as a rule, short-term and medium-term);

§ target nature (for example, target, settlement).

As a rule, in developed countries, refinancing of credit institutions by central banks is carried out against security (on the security of securities or by rediscounting promissory notes), however, during periods of financial and economic crises, unsecured loans can also be provided. Typically, refinancing loans are provided for a relatively short term, since long-term operations would violate the principle of prompt, flexible liquidity management.

Bank of Russia from the beginning to the middle of the 90s of the XX century. carried out refinancing of commercial banks by providing direct targeted loans (without collateral) from centralized resources in order to finance individual industries and regions (agriculture, commercial and industrial complex, etc.).

For the purpose of short-term refinancing of banks for their settlements and fulfillment of urgent obligations and payments, the Bank of Russia provides the following types of loans (secured by securities from the Lombard List, as well as promissory notes and rights of claim under loan agreements):

§ intraday loans for a period of one business day (without interest),

§ One-day settlement overnight loans at a rate equal to the refinancing rate.

At present, the Bank of Russia has developed and operates mechanisms for refinancing (crediting) banks, which can be divided into two groups, differing in the degree of efficiency of the decision to grant a loan by the Bank of Russia:

§ lending against collateral (blocking) of securities from the Lombard List of the Bank of Russia;

§ lending secured by non-market assets (secured by bills of exchange, rights of claim under loan agreements of organizations in the field of material production and / or guarantees from credit organizations).

In the first case, collateral for loans is standardized (a specific list of securities is defined - the Lombard List of the Bank of Russia), and accounting for ownership of collateral is carried out by authorized depositories. The decision time ranges from a few seconds to one hour.

In the second case, the process of making a decision to issue a loan, as well as the process of assessing the quality and value of collateral, is longer and ranges from 8 to 20 days, which are necessary for the Bank of Russia to verify the authenticity of the bill pledged, the existence of ownership rights to the bill, or the existence of rights of claim under loan agreement, and also in some cases are caused by the need to assess the level of solvency and financial condition of the organization whose obligations are offered by the bank as collateral for a loan from the Bank of Russia.

As for the operations of the Central Bank for the rediscount of bills for commercial banks, in the conditions of Russia it is complicated by the fact that it is associated with high credit risks. A significant part of Russian enterprises is in a difficult financial situation, some have significant debts. The carrying out by the Bank of Russia of operations to rediscount commercial bills of exchange issued by Russian enterprises, on the one hand, could provoke banks to take on excessive risks when discounting (purchasing) such bills, and on the other hand, could lead to financial losses of the Bank of Russia itself associated with possible non-fulfillment by enterprises of their obligations to repay debts on promissory notes. That is why the main mechanism for transferring additional liquidity to banks in Russia remains the provision of loans. In the conditions of a stable economic situation in countries with a developed market economy, the importance of refinancing operations is gradually decreasing with the development of money and financial markets, the use of more “fine-tuning” tools. However, in conditions of financial and economic crises, accompanied by threatening liquidity crises of banks and their loss of solvency, the role of these instruments of monetary regulation is strengthening.

Conclusion

Thus, the overall goal of monetary policy is to ensure macroeconomic equilibrium at the optimal rate of economic growth for a given country. In accordance with the purpose of the activities of the Bank of Russia defined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the national monetary policy is aimed at ensuring the stability of the national currency.

The main problems in the implementation of monetary policy are:

Fiscal problems associated with low tax collection rates; an increase in arrears in wages and social benefits;

The growth of mutual non-payments and the actual bankruptcy of many enterprises in the real sector;

Deterioration of the balance of payments due to unfavorable changes in the situation on the world energy markets and the maintenance of an overvalued ruble exchange rate;

Outflow of capital abroad;

The low exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar.

Therefore, to solve these problems in Russia, it is necessary:

improvement of the legislative base in the sphere of monetary and credit policy; decrease in dollarization of Russian money circulation; strengthening incentives for investment activity; improvement of the tax system; reducing inflation and pursuing a price containment policy; introduction and improvement of electronic money circulation; development and application of a wide range of forms of non-cash circulation; strengthening control over the legality of cash and non-cash transactions to prevent possible illegal actions and others.

Bibliographic list

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3. Keynes D.M. "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money". - M.: Progress, 2014. From 78.

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